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☆ Hundreds protest in Baghdad over Iraqi dinar's slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BAGHDAD, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Hundreds of people demonstrated near central bank headquarters in Baghdad on Wednesday to protest at the recent slide of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar that has triggered a rise in prices of imported consumer goods. Hundreds from different Iraqi regions waved Iraqi flags or carried banners demanding government intervention to stop the dinar's decline to around 1,620 to the greenback from 1,470 in November. Under the curbs that took effect this month, Iraqi banks must use an online platform to reveal their transaction details. [1/2] Police officers gather as Iraqi protesters demonstrate against the dinar's slide in value against the U.S. dollar, near the central bank in Baghdad, Iraq January 25, 2023. Dozens of anti-riot policemen were deployed around the central bank building and surrounding streets but no clashes or arrests were reported.

☆ Analysis: Iraqi PM walks diplomatic tightrope in crackdown on dollars smuggled to Iran
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Ahmed Rasheed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The New York Federal Reserve introduced tighter controls on international dollar transactions by commercial Iraqi banks in November. "Americans are using the dollar transfer rigid restrictions as warning messages to Prime Minister Sudani to stay tuned with the American interests. The new system has slowed down dollar transactions, said Nabil al-Marsoumi, economics professor at Basra University. Meanwhile the price of consumer goods has increased and the Iraqi currency has taken a beating. The Iraqi prime minister replaced the central bank governor after the slide in the dinar, the state news agency said on Monday.

☆ Fed's Williams: Inflation remains too high, Fed has more work to do
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Williams: Inflation remains too high, Fed has more work to doCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on comments from the New York Federal Reserve president John Williams.

☆ Changing nature of inflation prompts new inequalities, New York Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"As prices in other categories have begun to rise more rapidly, the pattern of inflation inequality is changing with groups that have larger expenditure shares on these components ... experiencing higher inflation," New York Fed economists wrote in a blog post. Asian American/Pacific Islander households are most impacted by rising housing inflation, the New York Fed said. To illustrate the changing patterns, the researchers showed that in June 2021, as transportation costs soared, the inflation rate for Hispanic households was more than 1.5 percentage points above the national average. In December 2022, the inflation disparity for Hispanic households fell to about 0.27 percentage point. But in December 2022, the bottom 40% by income had the highest year-on-year inflation rate, while the inflation rate for middle-income households was now below the national average.

☆ New York state manufacturing collapses, monthly survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday its barometer on business activity in New York state fell in January to the lowest level since mid-2020 as orders plunged and employment growth stalled. The regional Fed's "Empire State" index on current business conditions plummeted to -32.9 this month from -11.2 in December. That was lowest level since mid-2020 and the fifth worst reading in the survey's history. A reading below zero signals the New York manufacturing sector is contracting. Inventories rose, while employment growth stalled and the average workweek shortened.

☆ Morning bid: Dodging a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Global investors have fretted endlessly about a 2023 recession for the major global economies for more than six months. And Tuesday's latest economic healthcheck showed that the severe hit to Chinese economic activity from the draconian lockdown policies was actually much less than feared. The survey showed that investors' recession expectations peaked at a net 77% of respondents in November but have fallen to 68% in January. The BofA survey showed fund managers may have already repositioned, however, as their allocation to U.S. equities dived in January and a net 39% said they were underweight while preferring euro zone stocks.

☆ Banks dress up for a business-casual recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A recession is coming for U.S. banks, but it’s wearing comfortable shoes. Bank of America is writing off 1.7% of its card loans, on an annualized basis, compared with an average of 2.7% since 2013. America’s collective credit card limit is growing at a 9% annual clip, according to the New York Federal Reserve, the fastest since 2008. Citi has put aside enough to cover 7.6% of its credit card loans going up in smoke - more than triple the current level. It said 1.7% of credit card loans had been written off, on an annualized basis, compared with a 2.7% average rate since 2013.

Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

☆ NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, respondents’ expectations for inflation three years from now were unchanged at 3% while projections of inflation in five years’ time stood at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in November. The decline in near-term inflation expectations comes as the Fed has been aggressively pushing forward with rate rises aimed at lowering some of the highest price pressure readings in decades. Fed officials have been confident that will succeed in part because they have viewed longer-run inflation expectations data as relatively stable compared with their 2% target. Respondents to the survey had discordant expectations about their outlooks for income and spending. But expected spending tumbled, falling from November’s 6.9% expected rise to 5.9% in December.

☆ Consumers see inflation—and spending—cooling off in the year ahead, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

People shop for goods at a Publix in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 22, 2022, ahead of winter storm Elliot. Consumers see the inflation burden easing while they expect to pull back considerably on their spending, according to a closely watched survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. Consumers expect gas prices to increase 4.1% and food prices to rise 7.6% over the next year, but both figures represent 0.7 percentage point declines from the previous month. Despite the efforts, survey respondents grew more optimistic about the labor market, with 40.8% expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now, a 1.4 percentage point decline from November. Home prices also are expected to grow 1.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from November, according to the survey.

☆ Consumer debt skyrockets as historic inflation persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Christian Nunley | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer debt skyrockets as historic inflation persistsAmericans are racking up more and more credit card debt. $930 billion in the third quarter of 2022, according to the New York Federal Reserve. Watch this video to learn how Americans got here.

☆ NY Fed says China's COVID woes are pressuring supply chains
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The regional Fed bank's December Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ticked down to 1.18 from November's revised 1.23 reading. According to the report, supply chain pressures have been easing notably since the spring of last year and bottomed in September, and have since then been bouncing around in a tight range. Given China's large role in manufacturing, that approach has kept pressure on supply chains over recent months. The report noted that China's recent woes were affecting other Asian economies, and said the future of that nation's impact on supply chains is uncertain. Supply chain pressures as measured by the New York Fed have been generally easing since hitting a peak in the closing months of 2021.

☆ Resuming student-loan payments this year without Biden's debt cancellation could be especially harmful to borrowers with auto and credit card debt, the NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Even if the Supreme Court strikes down student-debt relief, payments will likely resume this year. This could be particularly harmful for borrowers with other forms of debt, the NY Fed said. The Fed said a resumption without relief would put borrowers with other forms of debt, like credit card and auto, at increased risk of falling into delinquency. "Eligible borrowers have always had higher delinquency rates on these debts," the Fed wrote, referring to borrowers who would be eligible for Biden's student-debt relief. Borrowers just don't want to see payments resume without relief.

☆ Tax strategies to use before the New Year: How to take advantage of this year's stock market losses minimize your tax bill, and other tactics to keep in mind
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

For stock market investors, there are a number of strategies one can employ over the next couple of months to lower their tax bill for 2022, according to tax experts that spoke with Insider. One of the most common strategies is tax loss harvesting, said Tanya Taylor, the founder and CEO of Grow Your Wealth and former financial regulator with the New York Federal Reserve. Investors should also consider gains made outside of the stock market when thinking about tax loss harvesting, said Ryan McKeown, a financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group. Below are the 2022 income tax brackets. Tax FoundationAnother strategy investors can use to minimize their 2022 tax bill is to donate stock to charity, both McKeown and Freifeld said.

On the heels of Tuesday's lower-than-expected inflation reading, the Federal Reserve is expected to tap the brakes Wednesday on its aggressive rate-raising plan designed to cool price growth in the U.S. economy. In addition to the slower price growth, layoff announcements are mounting. Notably, demand for bonds has increased, reflecting growing interest in more stable returns that are often correlated with slower economic growth. Out with inflation worries, in with recession fearsKey stock market gauges, meanwhile, continue to decline on concerns about flagging corporate earnings. If it was still worried about inflation, then interest rates, energy and banks would all be higher.

☆ Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In addition to the brightened short-term outlook, the inflation-rate projection for three years from now edged lower to 3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The most recent annual inflation rate as gauged by the consumer price index was 7.7% in October. The central bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at a 5.2% pace, down 0.7 percentage point from the October reading. The survey comes as Fed officials have indicated the likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike coming this week when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting Wednesday. Respondents to the New York Fed survey said they see gas prices rising 4.7% and food up 8.3% in the year ahead.

☆ Morning Bid: Why payrolls might not matter to markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

It's payrolls Friday, yet the most keenly awaited U.S. economic data point may not hold much sway over markets that are already behaving as if the U.S. tightening cycle is over. If it holds at current levels, this would mark one of the biggest weekly drops in the last two years . One line of argument goes that to justify the move seen in government bond markets, the Fed needs to be more or less done in December. So, where does this all leave the November non-farm payrolls report out at 1330 GMT? In the light of that data, markets may be anticipating a lower number later on.

Consumers are racking up credit card debt at a pace not seen in decades as inflation continues to pervade the U.S. economy. And while analysts say many U.S. consumers remain in good financial shape thanks mostly to low unemployment, the debt situation is growing dire. As the Federal Reserve has continued to lift interest rates to counter sky-high inflation, credit card rates have climbed to the highest levels ever measured. At just 2.1%, credit card delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. Still, said Raneri of TransUnion, as long as credit card companies are willing to continue to extend credit, credit scores will mostly remain unaffected.

A debate on lifting central banks' inflation targets re-surfaced this week - feeding speculation about just how much economic pain monetary policymakers are willing to inflict to drag decades-high inflation back to largely arbitrary 2% goals. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist and long-term advocate of higher inflation targets Olivier Blanchard thinks 3% could and probably should be the new 2%. That prodded central banks into extraordinary asset purchases, negative interest rates or both just to try and get inflation back up to 2%. And counter-intuitively for some he emphasised that higher inflation would not imply looser policy. So good and bad news - a potentially more balanced economy, with better wage distribution but higher nominal interest rates that may spook financial markets trying to parse the trajectory for Fed or European Central Bank interest rates years hence.

CNN Business —The Federal Reserve could pull back on the pace of its aggressive rate hikes as soon as December, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday at an economic forum. The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed Wednesday that there were almost 1.7 jobs available for every job seeker in October. The decline in job openings is a positive development, Powell said Wednesday. And the rate hikes could be doing more harm than good. Since rate hikes can take months, even years, to flow through the economy, the Fed now appears to be adopting a “lower and slower” model of smaller rate hikes over a longer period.

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 29 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. They also cheered a relaxation of regulations on developer fundraising that eases the smouldering property sector bust. A crackdown on demonstrations happened simultaneously, with Chinese authorities making inquiries into some protesters as police flooded the city's streets. Strikingly, hawkish Dutch central banker Klaus Knot also said forecasts of recession may be overdone and fears of "overtightening" policy were a "joke". His boss European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation, which is expected to ease this month but remain above 10%, has not yet peaked, encouraging speculation of another swingeing 75 basis point interest rate rise next month.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) for example had risen more than 10% in the last month and almost 20% since September. "Some of this is just a bit of consolidation from the last few weeks," she said, noting that stocks had taken a leg lower when Treasury yields gained and oil prices switched from red to green on Monday as the prospect of higher oil prices brought inflation concerns back to the forefront. Along with inflation trends, investors are also monitoring Federal Reserve commentary for any clues on its future rate hiking path. Earlier, U.S. crude oil futures had fallen to December 2021 levels on concerns about demand in China - the world's biggest crude importer. A view of a giant display of stock indexes, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Shanghai, China, October 24, 2022.

☆ Fed could cut interest rates in 2024, Williams says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"I do see a point probably in 2024 that we'll start bringing down nominal interest rates because inflation is coming down." While Williams pointed to some signs of progress in bringing down inflation, he said interest rates needed to rise further. "How high those rates need to be will depend on how the economy and inflation evolve," Williams said. The Fed has pushed through oversized 75-basis-point rate increases at its last four policy meetings, bringing the target rate to the current 3.75%-4.00% range. That's opened the door to the prospect the Fed could raise its target rate by 50 basis points at the next gathering.

☆ Morning Bid: China, COVID and Crude
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Rare anti-government unrest across China's cities over the weekend has unnerved world markets, weakening crude oil prices and adding fresh political risks to a fragile year-end. Wary that both the unrest and the COVID crunch compound the economic hit to China and the world, the initial market reaction on Monday was to sell Chinese stocks, the yuan and oil - with crude oil prices falling to close to $80 per barrel, their lowest since January. A U.S. regulatory clampdown on Chinese tech giants, citing national security concerns, also weighed on shares of tech firms. As U.S. markets return after the Thanksgiving weekend, attention will return to Federal Reserve tightening, the labour market and inflation picture. The German banking giant said it expected U.S. output to drop 2% over the whole year, euro zone output to decline 1% and world economic growth to slow to a recessionary 2%.

☆ Millennials have the most credit card debt in these 10 places — and California's not on the list
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Cheyenne Devon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

On average, millennials owe about $4,930 in credit card debt, according to the latest data from credit bureau Experian. But in some places, the average amount of credit card debt for millennials, who range in age from 26 to 41, is even higher. And despite California being one of the most expensive states to live in 2022, it didn't rank as one the top 10 places where millennials have a lot of credit card debt. Here's a look at the places where millennials carry the most credit card debt, on average, as of 2021. How to tackle credit card debt

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