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The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations Household Spending Survey, which is released every four months, also showed that households expect to spend less in the year ahead. The most recent reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is trending closer to the pre-pandemic reading of 2.4%. Survey respondents said they expected to spend less on everyday essential spending. The spending has kept the economy churning, but it’s also potentially coming at a cost: Americans have relied heavily on debt to make their purchases. As of December 2023, respondents said they’d allocate 38.4% of the unexpected income gain toward paying down debt.
Persons: it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Inflation looks to be stuck above the Fed's target rate, top economist Mohamed El-Erian said. If the Fed lowers inflation to 2% too quickly, it risks "crushing" the economy, El-Erian has warned. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's inflation fight has hit a wall, and central bankers can't lower prices in the economy any further without causing damage, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. El-Erian warned last year that inflation would likely get stuck around the 3%-4% mark, thanks to persistent pressures in the economy that will push prices higher, he said. Other commentators on Wall Street have warned of the possibility of resurgent inflation as price pressures in the economy linger.
Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, Organizations: Service, Allianz, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, CPI, stoke, El, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: El, That's, Red
In this article HLAG-DEMAERSK.B-DK Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTA ship transits the Suez Canal towards the Red Sea on January 10, 2024 in Ismailia, Egypt. Sayed Hassan | Getty ImagesU.S. shipping costs are spiking as attacks in the Red Sea disrupt global trade, raising fears that inflation might pick up again if the disruption persists. But the Red Sea crisis is now having a significant impact further afield with shipping costs between Asia and the U.S also spiking. Shipping rates from North Asia to the U.S. East Coast have jumped 137% to $5,100 for a 40-foot container from early October, according to S&P Global. JPMorgan told clients on Tuesday that the fight against inflation could stall in the coming months if shipping costs push the price of goods higher.
Persons: Sayed Hassan, John Kirby, Kirby, Biden, Chris Rogers, Mark Hopkins, we're, Hopkins, It's, Balika Sonthalia, Sonthalia Organizations: Getty, P Global Market Intelligence, P, U.S ., U.S . East Coast, U.S . West Coast, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, . National Security, White, Moody's, CNBC, Kearney, The New, The New York Federal, HSBC Locations: Suez, Ismailia, Egypt, South Africa, Asia, Europe, North Asia, Israel, U.S, U.S . East, U.S . West, The New York, Panama
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewInvestors are underestimating the risk of an economic slowdown, and "greedflation" among companies can't prop up the market any longer, Société Générale said in a note this week. Firms hiking prices likely helped avoid a deeper slump in profits stemming from a slowing economy, Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards said. "The Greedflation driven surge in margins helped stop the profits slowdown turning into a deep downturn. A recession still poses a decent risk to the economy, though investors have warmed up to the prospect of a soft-landing.
Persons: , Société Générale, they're, Société, Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, , Evercore, quant, Andrew Lapthorne, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, Institute of Supply, Evercore ISI
After spending the past two years trying to get inflation under control by raising interest rates, the Fed is inching toward cutting rates soon. Setting interest rates should be about weighing costs and benefits for everyone, not engineering outcomes for a favored constituency. When people (usually those with a vested political interest) try to accuse the Fed of being biased, it erodes confidence. The real reason for the accusationsThe entire conspiracy theory about a political Fed is weak on its face and baseless on its merits. What makes anyone so sure they'll fare better in 2024 with the rate of inflation slowing, interest rates falling, and stocks rising?
Persons: there's, it's, Joe Biden's, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Biden, It's, Trump, Ro Khanna, Powell, Taylor, Bill Dudley, Dudley, Dudley's, Chris Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Democratic, Trump, Biden, New York Fed Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan
Gold subdued as traders gear up for US inflation print
  + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A worker handles an Argor-Heraeus SA one kilogram gold bar at Solar Capital Gold Zrt. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $2,023.48 per ounce. U.S. consumer inflation data is due on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters see year-on-year inflation at 3.2% in December, but think core inflation likely fell to 3.8%, its lowest since mid-2021. "Still, bullion bulls would have no qualms restoring spot gold back above that psychologically important mark once markets get a firmer grasp on the Fed's policy pivot."
Persons: Bob Haberkorn, Michelle Bowman, denting, Han Tan Organizations: Heraeus SA, Solar, Reuters, New York Federal Reserve, Treasury, Exinity Locations: Budapest, Hungary, U.S
Dollar falls as traders focus on data for Fed policy clues
  + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations. The U.S. currency then dropped, however, as investors focused on some underlying factors in the jobs report that showed less strength. It declined further after a separate report showed the U.S. services sector slowed considerably in December, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in rate cuts beginning in March, though the odds of a move that soon have fallen.
Persons: Helen, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, greenback, Monex USA, New York Fed, Traders, Atlanta Fed Locations: U.S, Washington
Stephen Hawking's name came up in the newly unsealed Jeffrey Epstein documents. In 2015, Epstein offered to pay people to disprove an allegation that Hawking was in an "underage orgy." AdvertisementThere's been a lot of chatter about Stephen Hawking's name appearing in the newly unsealed Jeffrey Epstein documents — but has the renowned physicist been accused of anything? And the unsealed documents, from a civil lawsuit Giuffre filed against Maxwell in 2016, do not include any such allegations from Giuffre. The release involving Hawking was the first batch of documents unsealed.
Persons: Stephen Hawking's, Jeffrey Epstein, Epstein, Hawking, , There's, Ghislaine Maxwell, Maxwell, Virginia Giuffre, clinton, hawking, ted, Epstein bankrolled, Hawking hasn't, Giuffre, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Stephen Hawking Organizations: Service, New, Independent Locations: New York, Giuffre
Economist Alberto Musalem was named the next president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on Thursday. The St. Louis Fed representative is an alternate member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and will vote in 2025. St. Louis Fed First Vice President Kathy O'Neill has been holding the position in the interim. "Alberto will be an outstanding president and CEO of the St. Louis Fed," said St. Louis Fed director Carolyn Chism Hardy, president and CEO of Chism Hardy Investments and deputy chair of the bank's search committee. "I am deeply honored to serve as the next president of the St. Louis Fed and grateful for the opportunity to promote a strong, resilient and inclusive economy," Musalem said.
Persons: Alberto Musalem, Louis, Musalem, James Bullard, Kathy O'Neill, Alberto, Louis Fed, Carolyn Chism Hardy, Chism, Hardy, Paul Tudor Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Purdue University, Louis Fed, Market, Investments, Evince Asset Management, New York Fed, Tudor Investment Corp, Eighth, CNBC PRO Locations: St
Mortgage rates hit 8%When average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit 8% in October, those already exhausted with the state of the housing market may have seen their stress hit new levels, too. While they're not rising as quickly as in 2022, prices on everyday items from groceries to gas remained high through 2023.Credit card debt hit $1.08 trillionContrary to a boost in household wealth, consumer credit card debt hit a new high. In November, Americans' cumulative credit card debt crossed the trillion-dollar mark as spending remained strong despite still-elevated prices. The average net worth among U.S. households rose to $1.06 million in 2022, up from $868,000 in 2019, the survey found. Keep in mind that average net worth can be skewed by ultra-wealthy households, which are few in numbers but rich in assets.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Joe Biden's, It's, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve's Division of Research, Statistics, Conference, New York Fed, Fed, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S ., Consumer, Federal Reserve, Tech Locations: U.S
However, credit card balances are especially worrisome because they are going to keep getting worse. That means the average American could be spending $1,140 every year on credit card interest and fees alone. Americans have been accruing a lot of credit card debt at a terrible timeAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Americans had nearly $1.1 trillion in credit card debt in the third quarter of this year. Credit card interest rates, which had already been at their highest level since the mid-1990s, started soaring even higher. But with credit card debt going through the roof, the blissful spending could come to a screeching halt.
Persons: couldn't, , Gary Coronado, LendingTree, Ted Rossman, Biden Organizations: Service, SoFi Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Board, Fed, New York, New York Fed, Consumer Financial, CNN, Household Economics Locations: WalletHub, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delinquencies
According to prosecutors, U.S. taxpayers with Pictet accounts in Switzerland and elsewhere evaded about $50.6 million in taxes between 2008 and 2014. As part of the agreement, Banque Pictet agreed to pay $122.9 million to the U.S. Treasury. As part of the agreement, Pictet, which oversees 632 billion Swiss francs ($724 billion) in client assets, will implement remedial measures and cooperate with the authorities' investigation. U.S. authorities have long accused Swiss banks of helping wealthy Americans evade taxes, and Pictet signalled it had been in contact with the U.S. for more than a decade. Credit Suisse in 2014 agreed to pay a $2.5 billion fine for helping Americans evade taxes in a conspiracy that spanned decades.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Banque Pictet, Jim Lee, Pictet, Julius Baer, Renaud de Planta, Marc Pictet, Luc Cohen, Noele, Jan Harvey, Bill Berkrot, Christina Fincher Organizations: Internal Revenue Service, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Banque Pictet, Justice Department, Banque, U.S . Treasury, U.S, Credit Suisse, UBS, Prosecutors, Noele Illien, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Swiss, Switzerland, Pictet, New York, Zurich
[1/2] A man passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Underlying inflation pressures eased in October compared to the prior month, according to a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank said that its Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation reading for October stood at 2.6%, from September’s 2.88%. The NY Fed MCT index is designed to measure inflation persistence and how broadly price pressures are changing. The NY Fed MCT reading has tracked a broader retreat in price pressures.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Powell, Williams, Michael S, Mark Porter, Bill Berkrot Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, NY, New York Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, September’s
Don, 43, is a self-made millionaire who used to place immense pressure on himself to earn more money. He's now focusing on other things in his life, like his kids, that bring him more happiness than wealth ever could. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Advertisement'You need the humility that it can be taken away from you'Don said his upbringing largely influenced the way he now thinks about money and wealth. "So what are those things that you do have in your life that money can't measure?
Persons: Don, , he's, it's, That's Organizations: Service, Federal, New York Federal, Suffolk University Sawyer Business School, USA
The official told Gupta - who the prosecutors described as an Indian national involved in drugs and weapons trafficking - about a "target" in New York. The official wanted Gupta to orchestrate the target's murder, in exchange for getting criminal charges against him in India dropped. While prosecutors have not identified the alleged victim, a senior administration official told Reuters it was Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a New York-based lawyer who leads a separatist group called Sikhs for Justice. U.S. prosecutors did not name the Indian official, who they described as a government employee responsible for intelligence and security matters. "We are all counting on you," Gupta told the purported hitman in a video call on June 12.
Persons: Nikhil Gupta, Gupta, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, Pannun, Narendra Modi's, Gupta's, Jake Sullivan, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Nijjar, Modi, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Luc Cohen, Krishn Kaushik, Trevor Hunnicut, Heather Timmons Organizations: U.S . Department of Justice, Indian, Reuters, Justice, Administration, Manhattan, National Security, U.S, White, Canadian, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S, DELHI, Indian, New York, India, India's Gujarat, United States, Washington, New Delhi, Vancouver, Prague, Delhi
While Powell and other officials say they’re not even thinking about cutting rates just yet, some investors expect cuts to begin around the middle of next year. With Treasury yields sliding in recent weeks, so have mortgage rates, and rate cuts next year would help that along. Inflation, spending and mortgagesConsumer spending and inflation both eased in October, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. What Fed officials are sayingFed officials have broadly acknowledged that economic conditions are setting the stage for inflation to continue its descent. While some Fed officials have expressed optimism, others remain unconvinced that the Fed’s job is done.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, , Powell, they’re, Freddie Mac, Christopher Waller, John Williams, “ We’ve, Michelle Bowman, Organizations: DC CNN — Investors, Federal, Spelman College, Treasury, Fed, December’s Fed, Commerce Department, , Washington . New York Fed, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Atlanta, September’s, America, doldrums, Washington . New, Salt Lake City
Millennials said in a recent survey that they need $525,000 a year to be happy. It's likely due to high debt loads millennials hold, along with childcare and housing costs. The average respondent said they think they need a $284,167 annual salary to be happy, and for millennials, that amount was much higher at $525,000. As Business Insider recently reported, millennials' financial well-being has plummeted, according to Morning Consult's latest iteration of its well-being index. Big debt loads are a contributor to millennials' financial well-being right now.
Persons: Millennials, , Gen Z, Gen X, millennials, Fannie Mae, it's, Jimmy Gomez, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Consumer Financial, Federal, New York Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, National Association of Realtors
Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced. The following chart offers a look at how officials currently stack up on their outlooks for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, was in July. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
Persons: Jeff Schmid, Adriana Kugler, Louis Fed, James Bullard, Louis, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Federal Open Market, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed's, Fed's, Governors, Interim, Louis Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St
Fresh data shows price pressures are easing and the labor market is gradually cooling, evidence that the slowdown the Fed has tried to engineer with its rate hikes to date is underway. Still, the unemployment rate at last read was 3.9%, only a few tenths of a percentage point above where it was when the Fed first began raising rates in March 2022. UNCERTAIN PATHTraders have been betting heavily that the Fed will keep its overnight benchmark interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the next several months. "I'm not losing too much sleep" over the market's view "because there's a lot of uncertainty about the future path of policy," Williams said. "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now," Daly said.
Persons: John Williams, Williams, Janet Yellen, I'm, Mary Daly, Daly, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Oscar Munoz, Dan Burns, Michael S, Howard Schneider, David Lawder, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed Bank, Fed, U.S, Treasury, PATH Traders, San Francisco Fed, Spelman College, Derby, Thomson Locations: U.S, New, Atlanta
Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Energy prices fell 2.6% on the month, helping keep overall inflation in check, even as food prices increased 0.2%. Goods prices saw a 0.3% decrease while services rose 0.2%. On the services side, the biggest gainers were international travel, health care and food services and accommodations. I'm hearing normalizing, not recession, but I am hearing consumer slowing down."
Persons: Dow Jones, Stocks, Bonds, Bill Adams, John Williams, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Energy, Dow Jones, Treasury, Labor, Fed, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, . New York Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, European Central Bank, CNBC PRO Locations: ., New York
New York CNN —The Dow reached a new high for the year Thursday as easing inflation data and strong third quarter earnings from Salesforce shot the benchmark index 520 points, or 1.5% higher. The S&P 500 rose more than 8% this month and the Nasdaq was up about 10%, marking their best month since July 2022. The Dow, meanwhile, managed to shake off a three-month losing streak, also rising by about 8.8% and notching its best month since October 2022. October’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, fell to its lowest level since the spring of 2021. Analysts expect that the stock market’s strong performance will continue through December in a so-called Santa Claus rally.
Persons: Dow, John Williams, it’s, Santa Claus, , , Cory Mitchell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, of Labor, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Saudi Press Agency, Analysts Locations: New York, United States, Saudi Arabia, Santa
New York CNN —The Black Friday and Cyber Monday billion-dollar US spending spree was fueled by “Buy Now, Pay Later” shoppers. On Cyber Monday, Buy Now, Pay Later purchases hit an all-time high, up 43% from a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics. The number of items per order also rose 11% annually as shoppers used Buy Now, Pay Later for larger purchases. Consumers risk stacking on debt they can’t pay off with Buy Now, Pay Later purchases, financial researchers say. While Buy Now, Pay Later was initially designed to help shoppers pay for big-ticket purchases, consumers are increasingly using these services to buy groceries and everyday necessities, research shows.
Persons: CNN’s Alicia Wallace Organizations: New, New York CNN, Adobe Analytics, New York Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: New York
Morning Bid: Waller to Wall St, Fed's on the turn
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. But back in the markets, the Fed's policy pivot was all the rage as Treasury yields and dollar plunged anew. New York Fed chief John Williams said long-term inflation expectations were anchored, reassuring and "remarkably stable". Fed futures now have the first Fed rate cut of a quarter point fully priced for May and 110bps of rate cuts by year-end. Two-year Treasury yields plunged more than 15 basis points to four-month lows of 4.66% on Wednesday, with 10-year yields hitting their lowest since mid-September - a startling drop of more than 75bps in little over a month.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's Munger, Warren Buffett, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Waller, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Powell, Stocks, smartly, Hong, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Andrew Hauser, Blinken, Sergey Lavrov, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Waller . New York Fed, Chicago Fed, HK, Austria's, Holdings, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bank of England, London, Russian, Foods, Intuit, Petco, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Berkshire, Waller ., China, Europe, Vienna, North Macedonia
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - An Indian government official directed an unsuccessful plot to assassinate a Sikh separatist on U.S. soil, the U.S. Justice Department said on Wednesday, in announcing charges against a man accused of orchestrating the attempted murder. Prosecutors did not name the Indian official or the target. According to prosecutors, the official recruited Gupta in May 2023 to orchestrate the assassination. The Indian government has complained about the presence of Sikh separatist groups outside India, including in Canada and the United States. The groups have kept alive the movement for Khalistan, or the demand for an independent Sikh state to be carved out of India.
Persons: Nikhil Gupta, Gupta, Damian Williams, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Nijjar, Luc Cohen, Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey, Chizu Nomiyama, Mark Porter, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Indian, U.S . Justice, New York City, Prosecutors, Biden, Administration, Air, Air India Boeing, Thomson Locations: U.S, Manhattan, New York, India, Czech, New York City, Washington, United States, New Delhi, Canada, India's Punjab, Vancouver, Air India
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