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ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was more than 5 basis points higher at 4.235%. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as investors awaited economic data and reports that could provide fresh insights into the state of the economy and the outlook for interest rates. Investors looked ahead to economic data and reports slated for the week. Import and export price data is also due Tuesday and Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to make remarks. Following the Fed's July meeting, central bank chief Jerome Powell said a range of options were still on the table and interest rate decisions would depend on economic data.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Minneapolis Federal

"So why not be in a situation where you're just much more ready in case you...need to access this discount window?" An analysis of Fed data by Reuters, though, shows a lot still needs to be done to meet that goal. All told, about 3,800 banks borrowed from the discount window during the 11-year period detailed in the central bank data. The biggest banks also stepped up to borrow so as to reduce discount window stigma. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said small banks should think of the discount window as a backup.

Persons: Brittany Hosea, Jerome Powell, I’ve, Lorie Logan, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Huberto Ennis, Michelle Bowman, Brad Tidwell, SVB, Austan Goolsbee, Richmond Fed's Ennis, Neel Kashkari, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Dallas, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, National Credit Union Association, Chicago Fed, Federal Home Loan Bank, Minneapolis, Home Loan Bank, Thomson Locations: Santa Clara , California, U.S, Silicon, Washington, While California, Texas, Logan's, New Mexico, Louisiana, Henderson , Texas

☆ The mortgage market isn't sending the signal homebuyers need on affordability
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Usually around 1.75 percentage points, and as low as 1.3 in 2021, the so-called mortgage spread is hovering at more than 3 percentage points now. And that is propping up mortgage rates, keeping home owners from selling their homes and buying nicer ones, and hurting first-time buyers, Yun said. Why mortgage spreads should move lowerLogically, mortgage spreads should move down sharply from here, thanks to the recent spate of good economic news, and bring relief to home buyers who have seen affordability deteriorate sharply since 2020. But as the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022, mortgage rates rose even faster than bond yields. Mortgage rates also dropped, to 6.89% last Friday from a recent peak of 7.22%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

Persons: Lawrence Yun, Yun, Logan Mohtashami, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Rob Haworth, Banks, refinance, Haworth, Neel Kashkari Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Mortgage News, HousingWire, Treasury, U.S . Bank, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Stockton , California, treasuries, Silicon, U.S, Irvine , Calif, Seattle

☆ 2-year Treasury yield tumbles after June CPI is less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury slid by 16 basis points to 4.736%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by more than 12 basis points to 3.859%. Treasury yields dropped on Wednesday after the inflation report in June showed an easing in prices. On a monthly basis, the index, which measures a broad swath of prices for goods and services, rose 0.2%. Investors will also be following remarks from Fed speakers, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari for fresh hints about the policy outlook on Thursday.

Persons: Dow Jones, Tom Barkin, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Treasury, Dow, Fed, Richmond Fed, Minneapolis Fed

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar swoons in upbeat inflation vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets leaned positively into another critical U.S. inflation report later on Wednesday, seeding a dollar (.DXY) slide to two-month lows that's revved-up yen and sterling gains. And June's CPI readout should be a marker if the consensus forecast for almost a full percentage-point drop in the headline inflation rate to two year lows of just 3.1% is borne out. Still, encouraged by a screed of other positive disinflation signals this week, U.S. markets are relatively buoyant going into the release and still feel the end of the Fed rate rise campaign is nigh. UK bank stocks pushed higher on the rates view and a relatively clean bill of health from Wednesday's financial stability report from the BOE. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its long-running rate rise campaign early on Tuesday.

Persons: Mike Dolan, BOE, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Joe Biden, Nick Macfie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, yearend, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of, recoiling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Activision, Richmond Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Cleveland Fed, NATO, . Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, British, Vilnius

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street narrows focus on major inflation report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were close to flat Tuesday night as investors looked toward the first potentially pivotal inflation report slated for release this week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures traded near flat. Investors are eyeing the June consumer price index reading due before the bell Wednesday. June data for the producer price index — another well-watched gauge of inflation — is due Thursday before the bell. Elsewhere, investors will monitor comments from central bank officials including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester throughout Wednesday for any insights into the state of U.S. economic policy.

Persons: Dow Jones, CME's, Chris Zaccarelli, that's, Stocks, Tom Barkin, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Index, Independent, Alliance, Dow, Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: Minneapolis, U.S

☆ Gold prices dip as U.S. debt deal, rate-hike bets weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold prices held close to a two-month low on Tuesday as optimism over a U.S. debt ceiling deal and reduced bets for a pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy in June dented the metal's appeal. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,938.57 per ounce by 0448 GMT. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday he feels good about prospects for passage by Congress of the debt ceiling deal that he reached with House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Having navigated the financial crisis of 2008, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari worries about systemic risks.

☆ In the Market: Amid the calm, the Fed brews the next storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Paritosh Bansal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Earlier this month, Chairman Jay Powell said the Fed's monetary policy and financial stability tools were "working well together," allowing it to support banks and pursue price stability. But several people in the market believe not only is the regional banking sector still under stress, multiple other risks to financial stability also remain. Tighter monetary policy could well cause them to blow up or worsen the impact of other shocks, such as debt ceiling negotiations. "The Fed has no desire to conduct monetary policy through financial crises," said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. In its most recent financial stability report earlier this month, the Fed listed several areas of concern, including life insurance and some types of bond and loan funds.

☆ Major central banks were expected to pause rate hikes soon. Now it's not so clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe market has long been pricing in interest rate cuts from major central banks toward the end of 2023, but sticky core inflation, tight labor markets and a surprisingly resilient global economy are leading some economists to reassess. Economic resilience and persistent labor market tightness could exert upward pressure on wages and inflation, which is in danger of becoming entrenched. The Bank of England The U.K. faces a much tougher inflation challenge than the U.S. and the euro zone, and the U.K. consumer price inflation rate fell by less than expected in April. Meanwhile core inflation jumped to 6.8% from 6.2% in March, which will be of greater concern to the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Risk management considerations will, we think, force the MPC to push rates higher and further than previously intended."

And an increase in underlying core inflation to 4.7%, up from a 4.6% pace in March, underscored the less-than-steady progress on the Fed's inflation fight. In March Mester had already expected the Fed to raise the policy rate beyond its current 5.00%-5.25% range. Fed policymakers also say they are watching credit conditions closely, though Mester on Friday said that so far she's not seeing worrisome "extra" tightening from the recent regional bank failures. Odds in futures markets are running three to one in favor of a rate hike by then. Other Fed policymakers have echoed that hawkish call.

☆ A U.S. recession would be 'good news' for markets, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. consumer price inflation eased to 4.9% year on year in April, its lowest annual pace since April 2021. Markets took the new data from the Labor Department earlier this month as a sign that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation are finally bearing fruit. They eventually opted for another 25 basis point increase at the time, taking the target fed funds rate to between 5% and 5.25%. By November 2024, the market is pricing a 24.5% probability — the top of the bell curve distribution — that the target rate is cut to the 2.75%-3% range. "To me, it all really is going to come down to 'is the economy gonna touch near a recession?'

☆ Debt ceiling crisis: How a US default would ricochet around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.

☆ Gold recovers as debt-ceiling talks make little apparent progress
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rebounded from their earlier losses on Tuesday, as yields fell and the dollar retreated from its highs, while another round of U.S. debt ceiling talks ended without much progress. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,975.39 per ounce, after shedding as much as 0.8% earlier. Gold rose from session lows on reports of further negotiations over raising the debt ceiling, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Wall Street's main indexes fell and the dollar index backed off from its session high, while benchmark 10-year yields fell from a two-month peak. Gold tends to lose appeal when rates rise and push up bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion.

Persons: Daniel Pavilonis, Joe Biden, Pavilonis, Bullion, Ole Hansen, Neel Kashkari, Silver Organizations: Futures, Republicans, Saxo Bank ., Tuesday U.S, Investors, Federal

☆ Dollar higher as U.S. debt ceiling concerns keep traders nervous
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as a lack of progress in talks over increasing the U.S. debt limit hurt investors' appetite for risk-taking. "I think the dollar saw a modest boost today as stocks have declined, mostly due to the lack of progress on the debt ceiling deal," said John Doyle, vice president of trading and dealing at Monex USA. While most market participants expect a deal eventually, the delay in getting it done was keeping traders nervous, Doyle said. "The focus is slowly going back towards inflation and all this hawkish Fed speak we've been getting," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. "We're probably looking at a market that is repositioning itself for a little bit more dollar strength here as these Fed rate cut bets get pushed back a little bit further and higher for longer."

Persons: Joe Biden, John Doyle, Doyle, James Bullard, Neel Kashkari, we've, Edward Moya, Jerome Powell, Powell, Moya Organizations: U.S, Republicans, Monex USA, Fed, Traders Locations: New York

☆ Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Close call whether to raise or pause rates in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Close call whether to raise or pause rates in JuneMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest on the Fed's rate hike campaign, whether he sees more hikes in the future, and more.

☆ Fed's Kashkari says a June pause on rates wouldn't indicate an end to hiking cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

If we did, if we were to skip in June, that does not mean we're done with our tightening cycle. Kashkari said that if inflation doesn't come down, he would be in favor of increasing rates again. I think that they believe that inflation is going to fall, and then we're going to be able to respond to that. "But nobody should be confused about our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%." It may be that we have to go north of 6%" on the fed funds rate, he said.

☆ Apple caught on a downgrade based on supply-chain projections. Here's our take
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Christopher Alessi | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Stick with Apple Loop Capital on Monday downgraded Club holding Apple (AAPL) to hold from buy, citing "material downside risk" to the iPhone maker's June quarter revenue. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Morning Bid: Tech politics, debt cap brinkmanship
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Well-choreographed brinkmanship over the debt ceiling standoff looks set to go down to the wire, while technology firms have once again become a battleground in tense geopolitics. As AI-fueled U.S. technology stocks have led the way this year, the S&P (.SPX) has gained almost 10% this year and hit its highest level in nine months on Friday. Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said on Sunday he could support holding rates steady at the next meeting. Futures markets see more than an 80% chance of a June pause and still price almost 50bp of cuts by yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ 'Close call' on US June rate hike or pause, says Fed's Kashkari-CNBC
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 22 (Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Monday it was a "close call" on whether he would vote to raise interest rates at the central bank's meeting next month or take a pause and leave rates where they are. Speaking on CNBC, Kashkari also said services inflation remains "pretty darn entrenched" and that "it may be that we have to go north of 6%" to get it back to the Fed's 2% target. The Fed raised interest rates for a 10th straight meeting earlier this month, lifting its benchmark overnight rate to a range of 5% to 5.25%. If SVB and the other banks that recently collapsed had "had significantly more equity capital, their depositors would have been reassured because the banks could have absorbed their market-to-market losses," Kashkari wrote. Reporting By Dan Burns; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

SummarySummary Companies U.S. debt limit talks to kick off at 5:30 p.m. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet for talks on Monday after their discussions almost fell apart on Friday. The fresh talks come less than two weeks before a deadline after which the Treasury warned that the federal government will struggle to pay its debts. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAdvancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.71-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.78-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 13 new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 35 new lows.

☆ Fed's Kashkari open to holding rates steady in June, WSJ reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"I'm open to the idea that we can move a little bit more slowly from here," the newspaper quoted Kashkari as saying in a Friday interview that was published on Sunday. However Kashkari, a member of the central bank's rate-setting monetary policy committee, cautioned that his mind was not yet made up: "I would object to any kind of declaration that we're done." While inflation has shown signs of moderating since the summer of 2022, it remains well above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed has faced calls to refrain from further tightening to lessen the risk of driving the U.S. economy into recession. Reporting by Juby Babu in Bengaluru; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Federal Reserve officials are growing skeptical over suspending rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some officials are concerned inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, which could prompt an 11th consecutive rate hike when policymakers meet in June. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell and former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke (R) participate in a discussion at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty ImagesEarlier this month, Fed officials voted unanimously to raise the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to a range of 5-5.25%, while signaling a possible pause ahead. Of course, Fed officials’ thinking on monetary policy could drastically change if the United States defaults on its debt, which could happen as soon as June 1. Fed officials always mention that their views on interest rates largely depend on what economic indicators show, resisting taking an absolute stance on how they will vote.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors assessed what could be next for Federal Reserve interest rates following a slew of comments from central bank officials. Investors looked to comments from Fed officials and economic data as they weighed what could be next for interest rate policy and whether the U.S. economy is likely to contract. That comes after last week's inflation data, which was slightly below expectations, led many investors to hope for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have grown louder in recent weeks.

But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

☆ Fed officials expect US interest rates to stay high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 15 - U.S. central bankers on Monday signaled they see interest rates staying high and, if anything, going higher, given sticky inflation - a stark contrast with the market's view that the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates well before 2023 is over. Inflation has eased some and should cool further, he said, but the process will not be quick enough to merit rate cuts anytime soon. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." "We still are well in excess of our 2% inflation target, and we need to finish the job." And he said he believes the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes so far have yet to be felt.

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