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☆ The Fed is 'behind yet again' as hot inflation data signals bad news for stocks, bonds and economy, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

More hot inflation data is putting the Fed "behind yet again," according to economist Mohamed El-Erian. He told Bloomberg TV on Friday that the latest reading is "bad news across the board." He added that the central bank could move to a 50-basis-point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. It is just bad news," El-Erian told Bloomberg TV on Friday.

☆ Markets are kicking off a make-or-break stretch with inflation, jobs, and more Fed policy looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned — once again — last week that rates may eventually end up higher than markets anticipate as the fight against inflation remains far from over. Now, ahead of the CPI report, let's check in with the outlook for stocks. To Bernstein strategist Matthew Palazzolo, today's inflation reading will kick off a momentous five-week stretch for equities. The jobs report on March 3, the next inflation report on March 14, and the Fed meeting on March 22 will shape the rest of the year for stocks, he explained to my colleague George Glover. Your best bet for where the stock market's going this year can be found in the two-year Treasury yield, according to Mohamed El-Erian.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian: Service disinflation is not going to happen for a very long time
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMohamed El-Erian: Service disinflation is not going to happen for a very long timeMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his expectations from the markets, why the 2-year treasury is moving lower, and insights into the inflation picture.

☆ Inflation has a 75% chance of rebounding or staying high, and the Fed could crush the economy in its attempt to fight it, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation has a 75% chance of rebounding, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. El-Erian warned inflation could remain sticky at 4%, and the Fed could spark a recession. But that optimism is premature, El-Erian warned, as inflation has a significant chance of rebounding or remaining elevated. He estimated that there was only a 25% chance of inflation steadily declining from here, and a 25% chance that prices would bounce back sharply, causing a "U inflation" scare. Bank of America also warned of rebounding inflation, which could flip the stock market upside down, analysts said.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian: Here's how investors should position with today's uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMohamed El-Erian: Here's how investors should position with today's uncertaintyMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his read of the U.S. economy, how investors should operate, and more.

☆ Investors are hooked on the 'heroin' of Fed rate cuts but the focus will turn to earnings gloom, Morgan Stanley's top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve's not going to start cutting interest rates soon, Morgan Stanley's top strategist said. When investors realize that, the focus will shift to the weakness in earnings, Mike Wilson told CNBC. But with once-soaring prices starting to cool, many investors now expect the Fed to start cutting rates by the end of 2023. But many strategists have put the gains down to investors' blindly focusing on hypothetical Fed rate cuts while ignoring other factors, such as earnings. "The Fed will be part of that story, but I think it'll be cutting rates long after the market has bottomed."

☆ I'd be shocked if Fed did anything other than 25 bps hike, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI'd be shocked if Fed did anything other than 25 bps hike, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss why the time is not suitable for a Federal Reserve downshift, El-Erian's fears with inflation, and more.

☆ European markets head for higher open ahead of flash PMI data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Surging inflation may appear largely in the past, but a shift to a 25 basis point hike at the next Federal Reserve policy meeting is a "mistake," according to Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian. "'I'm in a very, very small camp who thinks that they should not downshift to 25 basis points, they should do 50," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. Inflation, he said, has shifted from the goods to the services sector, but could very well resurge if energy prices rise as China reopens. El-Erian expects inflation to plateau around 4%. "That's probably the best outcome," he said of the latter.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the rallies investors have seen from stocks and bonds, his thoughts on inflation, and more.

☆ Inflation has moved from goods to services sector, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation has moved from goods to services sector, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the rallies investors have seen from stocks and bonds, his thoughts on inflation, and more.

☆ A 1970s-style financial crisis will slam the economy if the Fed abandons its inflation target, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A 1970s-style financial crisis will hit the US economy if the Fed lets up in its inflation fight, according to Larry Summers. The former Treasury Secretary criticized recent calls to raise the inflation target from 2%. At a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum, Summers rebuked suggestions from some economists that the Fed should lift its inflation target from its long-standing 2% target to 3%-4%. Economist Mohamed El Erian is among those that have suggested the Fed may have to revise its inflation target to 3%-4%, though the Fed has reiterated its commitment to its original 2% goal. "It would be a grave error for central banks to revise their inflation target upwards at this point.

☆ Recession is likely to bump inflation out of the driver's seat for the economy — so investors should brace for uncertainty, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession is likely to replace inflation as the driver of the economy in 2023, Mohamed El-Erian said. The global economy and investment portfolios would face a bigger range of potential outcomes, he said. The top economist warned US inflation will stay stubborn at around 4% because the Fed acted too late. "In this new year, recession, actual and feared, has joined inflation in the driver seat of the global economy and is likely to displace it," El-Erian said in a Financial Times opinion column Monday. "They should keep an open mind, if only to avoid repeating the mistake of prematurely dismissing inflation as transitory," he added.

☆ The Fed isn't going to make things easy for the market and stocks still have at least another 7% to fall, JPMorgan's chief equities strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks still have at least 7% more to fall before hitting a bottom, according to JPMorgan's chief stock strategist Dubravko Lakos. He told CNBC that earnings estimates for 2023 are still too high, and the Fed would likely stay restrictive on monetary policy. "I don't think the Fed is going to make it easy for the market. He predicted the S&P 500 will dip at least to 3,600, representing a 7% decline from current levels, particularly since central bankers are expected to keep interest rates restrictive. The Fed hiked interest rates by 425 basis points last year to rein in inflation, leading the S&P 500 to sink 20% for its worst losses since 2008.

☆ Here's why Wall Street is warning the Fed blew it on inflation and it won't save the stock market from crashing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed blew it on inflation stocks are going to have to suffer as a result. The central bank has no choice now but to keep hiking until inflation is down, experts have said. Here are five top voices in markets warning investors not to pin their hopes on a Fed put to save stocks. El-Erian has been a loud critic of the Fed's response to inflation this year, slamming central bankers for saying inflation was "transitory" in 2021. That's the cost of the Fed being late to the game, and the central bank can't back away from its monetary tightening now, El-Erian warned.

☆ Investors moving to cash over worries that Fed will overdo rate hikes, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors moving to cash over worries that Fed will overdo rate hikes, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens’ College, joins CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss why institutional investors have been moving to cash over worries that the Fed could overdo hiking rates as it fights inflation.

☆ Fed faces 'difficult road' going into 2023 with prospect of recession and inflation, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed faces 'difficult road' going into 2023 with prospect of recession and inflation, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins CNBC's "Squawk Box" to discuss recession forecasts and the prospect of 'sticky' inflation in 2023.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Mohamed El-Erian on Fed's tough decisions coming in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Mohamed El-Erian on Fed's tough decisions coming in 2023Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss recession forecasts and the prospect of 'sticky' inflation in 2023.

☆ The US is heading for a 'swamp' recession which could mire the economy in a disappointing and slow recovery
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Kelly told Insider the recovery may be considered "tepid" given it will be a "mild improvement in things." David Kelly, chief global strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management, called it a "'swamp' recession" in a note, suggesting the "economy would likely struggle to get out of" what is potentially a mild recession. It's like standing on the edge of a swamp," Kelly told Insider. "The problem this time around is two-fold," Kelly told Insider. In short, Kelly told Insider that a modest recovery from a shallow recession could be viewed as "tepid" as it will be a "mild improvement in things."

☆ Markets shouldn't get caught up in recession fears, and the Fed's credibility is near an all-time high, Jefferies' chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets shouldn't fixate on the potential for a recession, Jefferies' chief market strategist says. David Zervos pointed to strong economic data and anchored inflation expectations - a sign that the Fed has restored its credibility. The Fed probably needed to engineer a lot of this aggregate demand slowdown to anchor inflation expectations," Zervos said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday. But economic data remains strong, Zervos noted, which is buffering the shock of Fed rate hikes. "They've done it," Zervos said of the Fed anchoring the market's inflation expectations.

☆ Mohamed El-Erian paints markets as fixated on a 'dynamite' rate-hike slowdown by the Fed as he imagines a heart-to-heart between the two
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mohamed El-Erian believes the Fed and financial markets aren't listening to what the other is signaling. He believes markets are fixing on the news they want to hear and not on the Fed's warnings. You are definitely going to slow the pace of interest rate hikes starting as early as this month!" Powell signaled at Brookings that the Fed could slow the pace of interest rate hikes as soon as this month. But the Fed's messages just aren't getting through to markets on just hearing the good news — and that's not good for the health of the US and global economies, Mohamed El-Erian believes.

Blackstone (BX.N) limited withdrawals from its $69 billion unlisted REIT on Thursday after redemption requests hit pre-set limits amid investor concerns it was slow to adjust valuations as interest rate surged, a source close to the fund said. The development is yet another reminder of the risks facing not just sectors that are sensitive to higher interest rates but also broader financial markets, which have rallied sharply on hopes that interest rate hikes will slow. "REITS had a fantastic performance for a couple of months but when you have that outperformance, investors don't react to traditional fundamental signals such as rising rates," she said. But in recent weeks expectations have risen that the Fed will "pivot" from aggressive tightening, prompting investors to price in lower peak interest rates. Blackstone has reported a 9.3% year-to-date net return for the REIT, while the publicly traded Dow Jones U.S.

☆ Markets 'completely ignored' Powell's balanced inflation remarks and are not pricing in key risks, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are dismissing inflation risks after Powell signaled rate hikes may slow, Mohamed El-Erian said. But inflation is likely to stay sticky next year, and there are still credit and earnings risks for stocks. "So the marketplace is saying inflation risks are over. The market isn't focusing yet on credit and earnings risk, and that's because … there's no sign of a recession," El-Erian added. So keep an open mind, and let's not repeat the mistake of last year, when we all embraced transitory inflation," El-Erian said.

☆ Inflation will continue to decline, although it could be sticky, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will continue to decline, although it could be sticky, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens’ College, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down his market outlook following new comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on interest rates.

☆ The economy is already in a 'rolling recession', and that could set stocks up for a better 2023, Charles Schwab investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is already in a "rolling recession," according to Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders. Sonders said that could soon weigh on corporate earnings, with more downside possible for stocks. "We're already in a version of recession, we've been talking about it in the context of a rolling recession. A rolling recession means those losses could soon spread to corporate earnings, Sonders said, which would likely hit the stock market sector by sector rather than crashing all at once. If a recession is mild and the job market holds up, that could mean a better environment for stocks in the second half of 2023.

☆ Markets should brace for a period of central bank-induced turmoil before the Fed dials back on rate hikes, and stocks could soon retest recent lows, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could be in for another bout of volatility before the Fed pivots from aggressive rate hikes, JPMorgan warned. That's because the Fed and other central banks could inject more volatility before backing down from raising rates. Stocks could retest recent lows in the first quarter of 2023, strategists predicted. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said the odds of a recession were "virtually 100%" if the Fed continued hiking rates into 2023. That would take the fed funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

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