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☆ Reddit-loving retail investors are making their chaotic presence felt again - and their risky behavior is fueling a stock rally that doesn't look sustainable
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bullish sentiment has returned in a big way among retail investors as they've started the year piling record amounts into stocks. Speculative bets are backSome of what retail investors are buying has troubled observers. Different from 2021, however, is that institutional and retail investors look like they're on the same team, at least to a noticeable degree. To JPMorgan's Kolanovic, retail investors' optimism foreshadows future weakness in the stock market, as weak hands get wiped out by volatility, similar to how 2022 played out. With the Fed still set to tighten monetary policy, retail investors' enthusiasm for risky assets could backfire like it did last year.

☆ Morning Bid: Hang on a minute
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

And so a speech from New York Fed chief John Williams make give a better steer on current thinking. Markets are now priced for a Fed 'terminal rate' in the 5.25-5.50% range by July and no cut from there by year-end. European central bankers are also talking tough as the region's economies dodge recession and inflation stays high. But geopolitical concerns rankle again ahead of Friday's anniversary, with Russia unilaterally withdrawing from a key nuclear arms control treaty. As G20 finance chiefs meet in India, the world is watching closely the extent of the alliance between Beijing and Moscow.

☆ Here's why Wall Street's top analysts don't think the bear market is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Strategists across Wall Street are warning stocks are in for more pain, despite the strong start to 2023. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson compared investors buying stocks now with ill-prepared climbers on Mount Everest. Here's what experts at some of the biggest banks are saying about what's ahead for stocks. Morgan Stanley's top strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note this week that stocks have soared too high too fast, and those highs will ultimately prove unsustainable. He said the bidding-up of these speculative stocks suggests a bout of massive market volatility could be just around the corner.

☆ These 8 stocks are cheap and are expected to see strong earnings growth this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But there are some stocks that appear more reasonably priced, at least by one common valuation yardstick. The companies listed are also expected to see earnings per share growth of at least 10% this year. According to FactSet, 81% of Wall Street analysts have a buy rating on the stock. Financial stocks often trade at lower P/E ratios than the market as a whole, due in part to their slower growth prospects, but insurance company Metlife offers some attractive upside, according to analysts. According to FactSet, 65% of analysts have a buy rating on Metlife, with an average upside of 17% from current levels.

☆ Wall Street analysts are warning stocks are about to come crashing down
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Today's Fed minutes release should provide more insight on what's to come in March. So according to Wilson, stocks have entered this death zone after climbing too high too fast in hopes the Federal Reserve is about to pull back on its aggressive monetary policy. He's reiterated several times this year that the rally will lose steam, and he expects sticky inflation to push the Fed to hold interest rates higher for longer. The bank's analysts now see the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in June, which would bring the terminal rate to a target range of 5.25-5.5%. "As [stocks] have reached even higher levels, there is now talk of a "no landing" scenario – whatever that means," Wilson noted.

☆ 'This is not the end of the world': One of Wall Street's biggest bears says stocks will sputter this year but soar to record highs in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

One of Wall Street's biggest bears believes the stock market could surge to record highs in 2024. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson told CNBC on Tuesday that the stock market will survive its current earnings recession. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. But the stock market should be able to manage all of those issues and eventually shake them off, according to Wilson. "I think we could see new highs sometime probably next year if everything sort of plays out the way that we think."

☆ Morgan Stanley's Wilson warns stock market will retest October lows, could fall more than 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The equity strategist strategist said on CNBC's "Squawk Box " that the Fed will continue to hike rates through the spring and put the stock market's recent rally at risk. The strategist warned that the stock market could possibly fall more than 20% and see the the S & P 500 trade in a range of 3,000 to 3,300, and was in for "at least a retest of the October lows." The S & P 500 closed at 3,583 on Oct. 14, or 12.2% below its Friday close. He compared the stock market to mountain climbers who had gone too high on Mount Everest and entered the "death zone," with valuations hard to justify based on the outlook for earnings. Despite his cautious outlook, Wilson said that the stock market is not in for a multi-year rough patch.

☆ US stocks fall as worries persist over the Fed keeping rates higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell Tuesday as the shortened trading week starts off with ongoing worries about interest rates. The S&P 500, which fell last week, may post its third consecutive decline. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. The Fed may hike interest rates another three times this year, said Goldman Sachs. The "Canadian Warren Buffett" warned tech stocks are more overvalued than during the dot-com bubble and he foresees a painful sell-off.

☆ The 'profitless Nasdaq junk' stocks leading the recent rally pose the biggest risk to investors, says Josh Brown
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Tech stocks are outperforming in the new year, but some of the names leading the market right now pose some of the biggest risks for investors, according to Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown. The comments from Brown come amid Tuesday's sharp market selloff, with the Nasdaq Composite last trading down about 2.3% on the day as concerns mounted that a Federal Reserve pivot may not come as soon as expected. The dropdown in technology stocks during Tuesday trading, Brown added, is likely an example of "machines chasing machines." "What's going on is profits are being taken because volatility has come back," Brown said. Many investors bought a slew of tech stocks believing that they looked cheap after the recent pullback in shares.

☆ Jeremy Siegel says earnings estimates on Wall Street have a higher chance of being met as recession risk eases
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Jeremy Siegel thinks the odds of Wall Street hitting earnings estimates have greatly improved. That's because events that increase the likelihood of higher rates also lower the odds of a recession. He added that he thinks Jerome Powell favors a 25 basis point rate increase at the next FOMC meeting. "Stock prices are a fight between the numerator, which is earnings, and the denominator, which is interest rates," Siegel said. On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson made the bear case for stocks to fall more than 25% within month.

☆ Dow dives 697 points as bond yields jump on concerns the Fed will keep raising rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks dropped Tuesday as investors fret that the Fed will keep rates elevated. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. The index marked a second weekly loss last week, stung after regional Fed presidents Loretta Mester and James Bullard said more interest rate hikes may be needed to tame still-hot inflation. Minutes from the Fed's meeting in February are due Wednesday and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, is due Friday. Bank of America has also sounded the alarm on investors potentially wiping out the S&P 500's 2023 gain by early March.

☆ Morgan Stanley CIO: There's going to be two or three rate hikes going into June
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley CIO: There's going to be two or three rate hikes going into JuneMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the indication that Fed pivot is unlikely, fair value for the S&P 500 at year-end, and more.

☆ ChatGPT's 5-part strategy for balancing your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Dave Smith | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

I'm a deputy editor at Insider who helps oversee our newsletters, but I've worn plenty of hats around here. Phil and the rest of the newsletter squad are off today, but here are six (not 10 today, sorry!) A stock trader built his strategy into real software. ChatGPT's 5-part strategy for balancing a portfolio. OpenAI's buzzy chatbot is everywhere these days, so why not put it in charge of your investing strategy?

☆ A former BlackRock stock chief says he thinks the S&P 500 will fall another 17% as investors ignore a growing mountain of tell-tale recession signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Doll says the S&P 500 will drop to 3,400 if a mild recession unfolds. If a more normal recession (more severe than a mild downturn) comes, Doll said the index could fall to 3,000. The Fed's recession probability tracker based on the yield curve also now puts the odds of a recession at 57%. Subramanian expects the S&P 500 to fall as low as 3,000, a view shared by Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. If trouble hits, like Doll and much of Wall Street expects, stocks could extend their fall to new lows.

☆ Markets are kicking off a make-or-break stretch with inflation, jobs, and more Fed policy looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned — once again — last week that rates may eventually end up higher than markets anticipate as the fight against inflation remains far from over. Now, ahead of the CPI report, let's check in with the outlook for stocks. To Bernstein strategist Matthew Palazzolo, today's inflation reading will kick off a momentous five-week stretch for equities. The jobs report on March 3, the next inflation report on March 14, and the Fed meeting on March 22 will shape the rest of the year for stocks, he explained to my colleague George Glover. Your best bet for where the stock market's going this year can be found in the two-year Treasury yield, according to Mohamed El-Erian.

☆ Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson is still bearish, but has some cheap stocks he touts anyway
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A bearish stance on the wider stock market isn't keeping Mike Wilson entirely on the sidelines. Morgan Stanley expects 2023 per-share earnings to come in noticeably below where its peers on Wall Street do. Here are 10 that passed his screen: Morgan Stanley thinks space company Rocket Lab could rally 120% — the most of any stock that passed Wilson's screen — after plunging nearly 70% in 2022. Morgan Stanley expects the stock to gain more than 50% this year after losing about the same amount in 2022. Match Group , the dating platform known for brands such as Tinder and Hinge, also passed Wilson's screen.

☆ Morgan Stanley's stock chief says a signal that flashed before the 2000, 2008, and 2020 market crashes is once again glaring red — and that big declines are still ahead for the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Forward earnings growth is now negative, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson points out. In a February 6 note to clients, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson reiterated his call that the S&P 500 hasn't seen a bottom yet. Wilson highlights this pattern in the chart below, showing forward EPS growth (yellow line) alongside S&P 500 price action (blue line). "History shows price downside is in front of us, not behind us," the chart's title reads. Morgan StanleyWilson said in December that he sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300 in the first quarter before recovering to 3,900 later this year.

☆ Wall Street's biggest firms are warning their clients not to trust the stock market rally with trouble still on the way for the US economy and corporate earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks have responded positively, with the S&P 500 rising as much as 9.3% since the start of the year. "An improvement in US and global macro data has lifted the S&P 500 by 8% YTD and leads us to lift our 3-month S&P 500 target to 4000 (from 3600). Morgan StanleyMike Wilson, the bank's chief US equity strategist, has been warning of downside in the S&P 500 to fall for weeks now. In other words, this earnings recession is not priced, in our view." Wilson had the most accurate price target for the S&P 500 in 2022 among major Wall Street Strategists.

☆ Why all the big bank equity analysts think the market is going to drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a stellar start to 2023, many big bank analysts are skeptical that this rally can continue and urge investors to prepare for another leg lower. "We believe investors should fade the YTD rally as recession risks are merely postponed rather than diminished," wrote JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic in a January note to clients. Meanwhile, Barclays' Venu Krishna wrote in a Monday note that equities have "jumped the gun." Several factors, including falling recession risks and a correction in the CBOE Volatility Index and other spreads, also support a long-due fade in the market rally, wrote Credit Suisse's Patrick Palfrey in a January note. "We continue to recommend that equity investors position defensively and be prepared for additional volatility ahead," she said.

☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson warns there's a group of stocks that are riskier than growth shares
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is telling investors to avoid a popular trade tied to the economy. "Cyclicals probably are more risky now than the growth stocks," the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist and CIO recently told CNBC's " Fast Money ." "The growth stocks — a lot of them had their comeuppance last year with the financial conditions tightening." Cyclical stocks include shares that benefit when the economy is strengthening like retail. "There's this sort of narrative that China is reopening, inflation has peaked, [and] we can look through the valley here and start buying early cyclical stocks," he said.

MIAMI, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The mood at the annual 'Miami hedge fund week' gatherings this week was as bright as the winter sunshine, with one notable dark cloud on the 2023 horizon: U.S. stocks. But right now in the hedge fund and alternative market investor community, reluctance to get sucked in is trumping fear of missing out. And there is no shortage of reasons why - inflation, weak earnings, squeezed margins, recession, 'higher for longer' interest rates. Despite massive Fed tightening and the prospect of liquidity drying up significantly this year, investors see opportunities out there. This suggests equity investors are betting heavily on the Fed successfully engineering a 'soft landing' - possible, but far from certain.

☆ Investors are hooked on the 'heroin' of Fed rate cuts but the focus will turn to earnings gloom, Morgan Stanley's top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve's not going to start cutting interest rates soon, Morgan Stanley's top strategist said. When investors realize that, the focus will shift to the weakness in earnings, Mike Wilson told CNBC. But with once-soaring prices starting to cool, many investors now expect the Fed to start cutting rates by the end of 2023. But many strategists have put the gains down to investors' blindly focusing on hypothetical Fed rate cuts while ignoring other factors, such as earnings. "The Fed will be part of that story, but I think it'll be cutting rates long after the market has bottomed."

☆ Here's what the stock market is facing down this week, from Fed moves to earnings that will set the tone for the rest of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This is a make-or-break week for the stock market. Not only that, but a slate of mega-cap earnings from Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet are also due later this week. Any negative surprises could derail the January rally, Stockton said, and negate much of the recent recovery from 2022's vicious bear market. "We believe the rally rests on the shoulders of heavyweights Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, which are showing softness today as the market anticipates their earnings," Stockton wrote. Better-than-expected earnings and the potential for a Fed pivot have fueled a sharp rebound in the stock.

☆ Bear market's final leg looms as weak earnings season, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBear market's final leg looms as weak earnings season, says Morgan Stanley's Mike WilsonMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer, joins CNBC's "Fast Money" to discuss earnings season and the Fed's upcoming rate decision.

☆ The stock-market rally that's jumpstarted 2023 is about to fade as the Fed reasserts its resolve in fighting inflation, Morgan Stanley's top stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are off to a "surprisingly good start" in 2023, but the upside momentum looks set to fizzle, Morgan Stanley said Monday. This week's FOMC meeting may remind investors of the cardinal rule: "Don't Fight the Fed," said strategist Mike Wilson. The investment bank is now leaning more toward its bear case of per-share earnings of $180 for the S&P 500. He said recent price action in stocks has prompted investors to participate more actively as they fear missing out. "We think it's important to note that typically when forward earnings growth goes negative, the Fed is actually cutting rates.

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