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☆ US weekly jobless claims rise slightly; labor market defies recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Labor market conditions are still tight," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. "While we expect the Fed to leave rates steady at its upcoming meeting, a more sustained loosening of labor market conditions is needed to keep rate hikes permanently off the table." Unadjusted claims increased by 5,296 to 207,941 last week, with notable rises in New York, Ohio and Illinois. While the labor market continues to surprise with strength, manufacturing is in a downward spiral. The Fed's "Beige Book" report on Wednesday described the labor market as having "continued to be strong" in May, but noted that "many contacts" were "fully staffed."

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Unadjusted, nonfarm payrolls, payrolls, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: PMI, Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor, Oxford Economics, Labor Department, Reuters, Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: May WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, New York , Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts

☆ Asia's factories struggle for momentum amid patchy recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The PMI surveys suggest that China's economic recovery was still ongoing in May, albeit at a slower pace. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction. Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan also saw factory activity shrink in May, while that of the Philippines expanded, the surveys showed. Asia's economy is heavily reliant on the strength of China's recovery, which has been uneven with services spending outperforming activity in export-oriented sectors. In forecasts released in May, the International Monetary Fund said it expects Asia's economy to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% gain in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Wang Zhe, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: PMI, Capital Economics, P Global, Caixin Insight, Jibun, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, TOKYO, China, Japan, Asia, South, Malaysia, Philippines

"The bill now moves to the Senate, where we believe it will clear the 60-vote hurdle after some political and procedural posturing," analysts at BTIG said. ET, Dow e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 22.5 points, or 0.16%. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing PMI for May will also be on the watch list. C3.ai Inc (AI.N) slumped 22.8% after the artificial intelligence company forecast annual revenue outlook below street estimates. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BTIG, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shristi, Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Republicans, Senate, Dow e, U.S . Federal Reserve, Labor, P Global, PMI, Institute for Supply, Fed Governor, Philadelphia Fed, Dow Jones, Nordstrom, Macy's Inc, Dollar General Corp, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Plotting policy paths for Europe and the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jefferson said he favoured "skipping" a rate hike at the upcoming meeting and that term has started to displace "pause" among Fed officials. Some Fed watchers believe this conveys a slightly more hawkish nuance. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBets for ECB tightening have been knocked back, too, most recently by weaker-than-expected CPI data from Germany and France. Traders currently foresee slightly more than 50 basis points of ECB tightening left before an expected peak in January. That's a strong indication that the bill could get through the Senate before the weekend.

Persons: Kevin Buckland, Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Christine Lagarde, That's, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Graphics Reuters, Traders, Reuters Graphics, U.S . House, Thomson Locations: Germany, France, Hanover, Britain, United States, Asia, Spain, Italy

☆ China’s small and medium-sized factories post surprise growth, easing market anxiety
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong CNN —A key gauge of China’s small- and medium-sized factories showed their surprise return to expansion last month, which eased market anxiety about growth stalling in the world’s second largest economy. The Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in May from April’s 49.5, according to a private survey. The Caixin survey is focused on small and medium-sized enterprises. Asian markets received a boost from the Caixin data. It settled 2% lower on Wednesday, weighed down by the weak China data and a stronger greenback.

Persons: Ken Cheung, Joe Biden, WTI Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, Mizuho Bank, Nikkei, China’s, US, Senate, greenback . Locations: Hong Kong, April’s, China, China’s Shanghai

☆ U.S. manufacturing slumps further in May; employment picks up
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month in May as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates, but factories boosted employment to a nine-month high. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 last month from 47.1 in April. It was the seventh straight month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, the longest such stretch since the Great Recession. The persistent weak readings in the PMI support analysts' expectations that the economy will slip into recession this year. That suggests further gains in manufacturing payrolls in May after they rebounded in April.

Persons: Banks, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Reuters, Manufacturing, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S

Refinitiv data shows foreigners sold $1.71 billion worth of mainland shares this month via Stock Connect, a key cross-border link between the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges, after selling $659 million in April. Despite outflows in February, April and May, foreigners' net purchases of mainland shares still stood at $25.05 billion for the first five months of this year, compared with net buying of about $6.36 billion worth over the whole of 2022. "Foreigners seem to have been selling because of the underwhelming near-term economic data points and, perhaps, because of the opportunities available to investors with a broader (pan-Asia or global) mandate," Pershad said. "We presume other investors have re-allocated some capital from China to those markets (and others) this year." Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Pruksa Iamthongthong, Refinitiv, Alexander Davey, Vikas Pershad, Pershad, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Stock Connect, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, PMI, Morningstar, Allianz All China Equity WT, HK, HSBC Asset Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, G Investments, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, Morningstar ,, Taiwan, Shanghai, Asia, Bengaluru

Summary Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fallsNon-manufacturing PMI falls, as services slowPMIs show economic recovery losing steamMarkets skid on PMI weaknessBEIJING, May 31 (Reuters) - China's factory activity shrank faster than expected in May on weakening demand, heaping pressure on policymakers to shore up a patchy economic recovery and knocking Asian financial markets lower. "The PMI data reveal that China may heading to a K-shaped recovery," said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang LaSalle. "The sluggish domestic demand could weigh on China's sustainable growth, if there are no efficient and effective policy moves to engineer a broad-based recovery," said Pang. The PMI subindexes for May showed factory output swung to contraction from an expansion while new orders, including new exports, fell for the second month. Last month, imports contracted sharply, factory gate prices fell, property investment slumped, industrial profits plunged and factory output and retail sales both missed forecasts.

Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle's Pang, Li Qiang, Zhiwei Zhang, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, . Service, New, Jones, Labor, Nomura, Barclays, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Asia, New Zealand, China, Japan

☆ Asia stocks slump to monthly loss as China data disappoints
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar is sliding towards a fourth consecutive monthly loss and at $0.6492 is barely above last week's seven-month lows. Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are eying their worst month since February with a 2.4% drop. Based on these factors, we raise our end-2023 targets for Japanese stocks, to 2,300 for TOPIX and 32,500 for the Nikkei 225." Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 12.4 basis points overnight and fell another 1.5 bps on Wednesday in Asian trade to 3.6808%. The drop in yields put a pause in what looks to be the U.S. dollar's best monthly rally since February.

Persons: stockmarkets, Carol Kong, Masashi Akutsu, Joe Biden, Treasuries, Philip Lowe, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of America, Republican, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Japan, SINGAPORE, Pacific, U.S, United States

If the PMI data on Thursday from Japan, Australia, India, South Korea and others are as gloomy as China's official PMI figures were on Wednesday, markets are in for a torrid start to the new month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI report on Thursday is also expected to show manufacturing activity shrank in May, but at the same pace as April. Barring a huge upside surprise, China's economy appears to be sputtering and the pressure on local assets is growing. Dovish remarks from Fed Governor Philip Jefferson and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker on Wednesday helped lower U.S. bond yields and implied rate expectations. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Elon Musk, Brent, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker Organizations: PMI, Twitter, Philadelphia Fed, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan, Australia, India, South Korea, China, Shanghai, prelim

☆ Next week promises any debt deal relief may prove short-lived with jobs report, Fed decision looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The overhangs on the market this year [are] the debt ceiling negotiation, hawkish Fed commentary and a banking crisis. It appears we are going to get a debt ceiling deal over the weekend, which should help the market to stabilize." The problem for many on the Street is the action in the S & P 500 Tech Index, up more than 5% this week; the Nasdaq Composite , ahead about 2.5%; and the S & P 500 , with a 0.3% gain, masks so much weakness beneath the surface. The S & P 500 consumer staples, materials, health care and utilities were all down between 2.4% and 3.2% this week, and the Dow Industrials were lower 1%. Although the S & P 500 is 9.5% higher so far in 2023, only a few stocks are doing well. "

☆ Covid caused huge shortages in the jobs market. It may be easing — but there's another problem ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Data aggregated by Charles Schwab showed that in U.S. corporate earnings since the start of this year, phrases relating to workforce reductions began to exceed those relating to labor shortages for the first time since mid-2021. 'From shortages to gluts' Kleintop also cited tighter lending conditions as contributing to a weaker jobs outlook, pointing to a "clear and intuitive leading relationship between banks' lending standards and job growth." "Modest growth in labor supply will also ease shortages, driven by higher participation rates from younger worker cohorts and fading pandemic-related frictions," Moody's strategists said. watch nowServices job growth has been a key factor behind labor market resilience in the face of global economic weakness over the past year, as a result of a post-pandemic surge in demand. Based on estimates of labor supply lost to aging since the Covid pandemic, Moody's believes the coming drag will be "significant."

☆ While Asia markets may cheer a Fed pause, watchers are split on growth prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Ping Shu | Moment | Getty ImagesWhile a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle would lead to stronger Asian currencies, the region's recent earnings and disappointing Chinese economic data leave watchers split on the growth outlook. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconA Fed pause could boost U.S. stocks, but its effect on regional growth in Asia may not be as straightforward. Nomura's equity strategists kept their views for Asia-Pacific stocks unchanged despite the likelihood of a potential Fed pause, maintaining its year-end target for MSCI Asia ex-Japan. "Nonetheless, in our base case, we do not expect a meaningful decline in Asian stocks. "Asian investors' big worry surrounds China," he said, pointing to the "unsustainability of consumption rebound, especially against the backdrop of persistently high youth unemployment levels."

☆ China's service sector remains a bright spot as factory data disappoints, Caixin reading shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China's services activity remained well within growth territory in April as a private survey showed a softer reading from March. Atlantide Phototravel | Corbis Documentary | Getty ImagesChina's services activity remained well within growth territory in April, even as a private survey showed a softer reading compared with March. The latest Caixin reading suggests that services activity is still "undergoing a fast recovery," according to Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group. The continued expansion in China's services activity stood in contrast to the disappointing factory activity reported earlier in the week. "It is worth noting that manufacturing and services activity diverged, with employment and input costs in the manufacturing sector contracting significantly," Wang wrote.

The full moon, otherwise known as a strawberry supermoon, is seen over the Skyline of the CBD in Sydney, Australia June 15, 2022. Asia-Pacific markets fell as banking fears were reignited on Wall Street, sending the three major U.S. indexes into a four day losing streak. Regional bank shares sold off, with the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) dropping more than 5% and some banks seeing volatile trading. Futures for Hong Kong's Hang Seng index stood at 19,904, pointing to a lower open compared to its last close of 19,948.73. China's Caixin services purchasing managers index for April will be published later today, a day after the Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory.

☆ China's factory activity skids in April on weak demand - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s factory activity unexpectedly dipped in April, a private sector survey showed on Thursday, due to softer domestic demand and suggesting the manufacturing sector is losing momentum amid a bumpy post-COVID economic recovery. FILE PHOTO: Employees work on a production line manufacturing metal parts for furniture at a factory in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China April 30, 2020. China Daily via REUTERSThe Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in April from 50.0 the previous month prior. The reading echoes a similarly disappointing official PMI released on Sunday and reflects the uneven nature of China’s economic recovery, with services consumption, a key growth driver in the first quarter, outperforming manufacturing. “This suggests that China’s economic recovery significantly slowed after COVID-19 infections peaked at the start of this year,” said Wang Zhe, economist at Caixin Insight Group.

☆ U.S. services sector grows steadily in April -ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The services sector is being supported by consumers shifting spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. Services inflation remained strong. Services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to interest rate increases. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. Services sector employment growth slowed further.

May 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The Fed on Wednesday delivered what markets are convinced will be the last rate hike of the cycle, bond yields and the dollar fell, yet investors are rattled. But the tone will be set by the fallout from the Fed. They rose as much as 3% in early trade, recouping some of the previous two days' heavy losses. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ US factory orders rebound on aircraft in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Factory orders increased 0.9% after decreasing 1.1% in February, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. Orders increased 2.4% on a year-on-year basis in March. Orders for transportation equipment increased 9.0% after dropping 3.2% in February. Civilian aircraft orders soared 78.3%. Motor vehicle orders fell 0.6%.

☆ Stock futures fall slightly as investors look ahead to Fed rate decision: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 01, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stock futures fell slightly on Tuesday night as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 11 points, or 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 367.17 points, or 1.08%. April's ISM non-manufacturing PMI data is forecasted to show 51.8, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.

☆ Wall Street near flat after First Republic news, awaiting Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed, which has been raising rates to cool inflation, is expected to hike rates an additional 25 basis points on Wednesday. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidEnergy (.SPNY) was down the most of the major S&P 500 sectors, falling 1.3% as crude oil prices declined , . First-quarter results from S&P 500 companies have mostly beaten expectations, easing economic concerns. The S&P 500 technology index (.SPLRCT) climbed 0.2% on Monday, offsetting some of the day's weakness. The S&P 500 posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 88 new highs and 188 new lows.

☆ US manufacturing contacts again in April but pulls off 3-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 47.1 last month from 46.3 in March, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. It was the sixth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. The proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent - a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness - was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March, said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Only two of the six biggest manufacturing industries, petroleum and coal products as well as transportation equipment, reported growth last month. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index rose to 45.7 last month from 44.3 in March.

☆ US manufacturing contracts again in April, but pace slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 47.1 last month from 46.3 in March, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. The ISM said 73% of manufacturing gross domestic product was contracting, up from 70% in March. "The proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent - a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness - was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Only two of the six biggest manufacturing industries, petroleum and coal products as well as transportation equipment, reported growth. Higher prices align with government data showing wages and salaries in the manufacturing industry growing solidly in the first quarter.

☆ 10-year Treasury yield ticks higher ahead of Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Katrina Bishop | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was trading around 3.467% at 4.40 a.m. The 2-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.066%. The Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis point interest rate hike Wednesday at the conclusion of its meeting. Investors are particularly interested in any guidance on how long rates will remain elevated and when rate cuts could get underway. On Monday, ISM manufacturing data, construction spending and S&P Global manufacturing PMI are due.

☆ Morning Bid: Another one bites the dust
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Amanda Cooper. Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the banking system, First Republic Bank has folded and U.S. regulators have agreed to sell its assets to JPMorgan. A Reuters poll of economists offers a forecast of 46.7 for the ISM manufacturing index, which would mark an improvement on March's three-year low of 46.3, but it would still be the sixth straight month of contraction. ISM Manufacturing PMIEvents to watch out for on Monday:* U.S. Institute for Supply Management index* S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final index* Three- and six-month Treasury bill auctions. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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