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☆ Gold off one-year highs as dollar firms ahead of U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices slipped from one-year highs on Thursday as the dollar regained some ground, while investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to gage the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. The economic data points this week were major components supporting gold prices, he added, while also noting some profit-booking ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Wednesday's data showed the U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in March. While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. Markets see a 53.8% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

The slew of soft economic data has added to fears of an impending recession in the world's largest economy, putting a lid on risk appetite and sending traders in search of some safe haven assets. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 101.95, having slid to a two-month trough of 101.40 in the previous session. The Japanese yen also found some support from safe haven bids and was last roughly 0.2% higher at 131.01 per dollar. "Weak economic data continues to weigh in on investor sentiment, triggering a flight-to-safety bid," analysts at Westpac said in a note to clients. The soft data sent U.S. shares lower on Wednesday STX/ while Treasuries advanced, which saw the benchmark 10-year yield falling to its lowest since September .

The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labor market. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. Another report on Wednesday also indicated continued economic weakness, this time in the services sector.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets labor under recession cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. If the tight U.S. labor market is finally unwinding, markets suspect the Federal Reserve's job may well done after all - but at the cost of a looming recession. With Wednesday's private sector jobs reading for March and Friday's national payrolls report ahead, U.S. interest rate markets were jolted again on Tuesday by surprisingly soft data on job vacancies that suggested cooling demand for staff. More decisively, the two-year Treasury yield plunged more than 20 basis points intraday to hover just above 3.8% on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Dollar mired near two-month low; Kiwi gains on RBNZ surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The kiwi rallied 1% to touch a two-month high of $0.6383 after the decision. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, eased to a fresh two-month low of 101.43, after dropping 0.5% overnight. Markets were pricing in a 43% chance of Fed not raising interest rates a day earlier. "And the Fed may have to perhaps do more and keep rates high for longer." The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.3 basis points to 3.350%, having slipped 9 basis points overnight.

☆ Morning Bid: Jolted markets fret about economy, Fed rate path
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The JOLTS report on Tuesday showed that U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in February, with traders wagering that the Fed is just about done with its interest rate hikes. And yet, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that the U.S. central bank likely has more interest rate rises ahead amid signs the recent banking sector troubles have been contained. A surprise 50 basis point hike from New Zealand's central bank shocked the Asian market, with kiwi-dollar scaling a two-month peak. Twenty-two of 24 economists in a Reuters poll had forecast the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would raise rates by just 25 basis points. A Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed that the U.S. dollar will weaken against most major currencies this year as the interest rate gap with its peers stops widening.

☆ Dollar struggles on weak data; Kiwi surges on RBNZ surprise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The kiwi rallied 1% to touch a two-month high of $0.6383 after the decision. Elsewhere, data overnight showed U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in February, suggesting that labour market conditions were finally easing. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six peers, eased to a fresh two-month low of 101.43, after dropping 0.5% overnight. In the U.S. bond market, the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 2.6 basis points at 3.860%, after sliding 14 basis points on Tuesday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.8 basis points to 3.355%, having slipped 9 basis points overnight.

☆ Fed's Mester says rate target will need to go over 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 4 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank likely has more interest rate rises ahead amid signs the recent banking sector troubles have been contained. The decision was haunted by banking sector troubles that led policymakers to say that a tightening in financial conditions would likely weigh on economic activity. "I was very comfortable with moving ahead” with the rate rise, given that authorities had taken steps to manage risks coming from banking sector troubles, Mester said in remarks following her speech. At the policy meeting, officials also penciled in a single additional rate rise for this year, as the Fed continues to boost the cost of short-term borrowing in a bid to lower inflation. Mester expressed confidence that banking sector woes should ultimately prove contained.

☆ Fed will buckle and start cutting rates before year ends, says Komal Sri Kumar
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will buckle and start cutting rates before year ends, says Komal Sri KumarKomal Sri Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how Sri Kumar takes Loretta Mester's recent comments on the federal funds rate, what the yield curve is telling investors and more.

☆ Dollar struggles near 2-month low on weak data, focus on RBNZ
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar was stuck near two-month lows on Wednesday as weak economic data bolstered views that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its monetary tightening cycle. The kiwi rose 0.08% to $0.632 ahead of a policy decision from Reserve Bank New Zealand later in the day. The central bank is expected to slow the pace of monetary tightening, raising rates by just 25 basis points. In the U.S. bond market, the two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 1.4 basis points at 3.848%, after sliding 14 basis points on Tuesday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.1 basis points to 3.348%, having slipped 9 basis points overnight.

☆ Gold at over one-year peak as weak U.S. data buoys demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday to touch their highest levels since March 2022 after weak U.S. economic data spurred safe-haven demand and expectations that the Federal Reserve might loosen its monetary policy trajectory. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,022.09 per ounce, as of 0355 GMT. Gold prices rallied 2% to cross $2,000 per ounce on Tuesday after another round of weaker U.S. economic data pointed to a slowing economy. Data showed U.S. job openings in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years, suggesting the labor market was cooling. Gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, but higher interest rates dim the appeal for non-yielding bullion.

☆ Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday: New dawn for JNJ, Disney push, Meta upgrade
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Meta Platforms (META) price target raised to $250 from $225 at Jeffries. Federal Realty (FRT) price target lowered to $111 from $118 at Piper Sandler. Bank of America raises price target for Apple to $168 from $158, keeps a neutral rating on shares. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

☆ Gold hovers near 2020 record highs on softer dollar, weak US data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukApril 5 (Reuters) - Gold prices hovered near record highs seen in 2020, trading steady above the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, as the dollar eased after weak U.S. economic data fanned expectations that the Federal Reserve might loosen its monetary policy trajectory. FUNDAMENTALS* Spot gold held its ground at $2,020.39 per ounce, as of 0123 GMT. * Data showed U.S. job openings in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years, suggesting the labor market was cooling. * While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dim the appeal for non-yielding bullion. * Spot silver eased 0.1% to $24.99 per ounce, while platinum was 0.2% higher at $1,020.47 and palladium edged up 0.1% to $1,458.51.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up by almost 1.3 basis points at 3.349% near 2 a.m. ET, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond saw an uptick of half a basis point to 3.599%. Job data released Tuesday showed vacancies fell below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years, pressuring Treasury yields as investors considered whether the information could deter the Fed from further rate hikes. The Fed is next scheduled to meet in early May, when the policy rate will likely rise by a further 25 basis points, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Mounting recession concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 31: Skyscrapers loom over downtown Manhattan on March 31, 2022 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. We're seeing more signs that the U.S. economy is indeed slowing down following nine straight Federal Reserve rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Futures edge higher as tech and growth stocks gain; focus on jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday, with investor attention shifting to demand trends and the impact of higher prices on the global economy. Energy firms Chevron Corp (CVX.N), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) and Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N) were set to extend gains, rising between 0.5% and 0.9% premarket. Among stocks, Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc (VORB.O) tanked 25% after the satellite launch company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on failing to secure long-term funding. Etsy Inc (ETSY.O) gained 3.8% after Piper Sandler upgraded the consumer e-commerce platform's stock to "overweight". Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets brush off OPEC as factories stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRelatively calm world markets have brushed off OPEC's latest twist and focussed more squarely on stalled global manufacturing and edgy U.S.-China relations. Crude oil prices held much of Monday's pop higher on the surprise weekend production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But Brent crude remains below levels seen just before the Silicon Valley Bank bust last month and is still tracking year-on-year declines of 20%. Strikingly, both short and long-term inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury markets , have barely budged since the OPEC news. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

☆ Gold hovers near 2-month low after U.S. data fans rate-hike fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold was flat and hovered near a two-month low on Monday, after strong U.S. economic data stoked fears that the Federal Reserve would implement more interest rate hikes to rein in inflation. Data on Friday showed consumer spending shot up 1.8% last month — the largest increase since March 2021. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.6% last month, after gaining 0.2% in December. Money markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.4% in July, from a current range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The dollar index was near a seven-week peak, making bullion expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

"We've been talking about impending recession for several quarters now," said Malone, whose Virginia Beach-based company has a national footprint. So has unexpectedly strong consumer spending and, for the world outlook, the reopening of China's economy from strict COVID lockdowns. That poured cold water on the idea that the Fed would "pivot" on a dime to lower rates. "Government bond yields are up" since the last Fed policy meeting, Durham wrote. "It kind of seems the U.S. economy might be more resilient than markets thought six or eight weeks ago."

☆ Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some background: The Covid-19 crisis triggered a sudden shift in student loan policy and a new openness to forgiveness. About 40% of those with federal student loan debt would have a zero balance; even more would have a much smaller monthly payment. But, “if payments resume without debt relief, we expect both student loan default and delinquencies to rise and potentially surpass pre-pandemic levels,” warned Fed researchers. Those missed payments suggest that some federal student loan borrowers are having trouble meeting their monthly debt obligations. “We expect these delinquency patterns to worsen if federal student loan payments resume without relief,” said the report.

☆ Cleveland Fed's Mester: Need to do more to get back to price stability
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCleveland Fed's Mester: Need to do more to get back to price stabilityCleveland Fed Chair Loretta Mester joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether the markets can help the Fed bring down inflation, her thoughts on the trade-off between labor and price stability, and more.

☆ Here’s where ‘Halftime Report’ trader Jason Snipe sees opportunity after the latest inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Friday's hot inflation data sparked a selloff led by tech names, but investors could still find good opportunities in the sector, according to Jason Snipe, principal at Odyssey Capital Advisors. Tech stocks are especially sensitive to rising rates because higher interest rates make future profits, like those promised by growth companies, less attractive. That doesn't necessarily mean it's time to bail from those tech names altogether, but some pruning might be in order, according to Snipe. Snipe added that semiconductor stocks are "where the real opportunity is in Tech Land." He said he isn't as excited about megacap tech names "with a Fed that's as engaged as they are in 'higher for longer.'"

☆ Fed's Mester says she has hope that inflation can be brought down without a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Friday that interest rates likely need to keep moving higher to get inflation back to acceptable levels. In a CNBC interview, Mester said she sees the central bank's benchmark interest rate having to rise above 5% and stay there for a while. Many economists expect the Fed won't be able to achieve its inflation goal without tipping the economy into a recession. She also expressed hope that the Fed can achieve its goal without crushing a labor market that has been surprisingly resilient despite all the rate increases. We can have a healthy labor market and we can get back to price stability," she said.

☆ Morning Bid: War and PCE
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.

☆ Fed's Mester sticks with December interest rate projection for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Feb 24 (Reuters) - Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Friday that she was keeping to her previous forecast made at the end of last year for the U.S. central bank's interest rate peak as economic data since then has not caused her to change her mind. "I had my funds rate a little bit above the median in that projection, and I haven't really seen much change in my outlook for the economy since that time," Mester said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. "So I see that we're going to have to bring interest rates above 5%...I do think we need to be somewhat about 5% and hold there for a time in order to get inflation on that sustainable downward path." Mester was speaking before inflation data was published which showed price pressures accelerating once again, causing investors to bet the Fed will raise interest rates at least three more times. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Jane Merriman and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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