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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Trivariate's Adam Parker, Crossmark's Victoria Fernandez and Truist's Keith LernerTrivariate Research Founder and CEO Adam Parker, Crossmark's Victoria Fernandez and Truist's Keith Lerner join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the risk of a position disconnect and bonds becoming an attractive alternative to equities.
Analysts agree that U.S. equity valuations are expensive, nominally and relative to history and overseas peers. The S&P 500 is still up 3.5% this year, the Nasdaq up 10%, and the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio comfortably above historical averages and current international comparisons. "The equity market is buying into a pretty rosy outlook, the 'immaculate disinflation' concept. The S&P 500 is currently trading at around 18.5 times 12-month forward earnings. "Neither of these outcomes are favorable for premium market valuations," Lerner wrote in a note on Monday.
US stocks end Thursday's session lower and capped monthly losses for February. Yields climbed this month as inflation remains too hot for the Fed's comfort. The S&P 500 has dropped about 5% from this year's peak. The S&P 500 was dragged lower in the daily session as seven of its 11 sectors slumped, led by utilities. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:The S&P 500 has dropped about 5% from its 2023 peak of 4,195 that was reached on February 2.
CNN —A sugar replacement called erythritol — used to add bulk or sweeten stevia, monkfruit and keto reduced-sugar products — has been linked to blood clotting, stroke, heart attack and death, according to a study. “If your blood level of erythritol was in the top 25% compared to the bottom 25%, there was about a two-fold higher risk for heart attack and stroke,” Hazen said. Clots can break off and travel to the heart, triggering a heart attack, or to the brain, triggering a stroke. “There appears to be a clotting risk from using erythritol,” Freeman said. In all three populations, researchers found that higher levels of erythritol were connected to a greater risk of heart attack, stroke or death within three years.
Persons: , Stanley Hazen, ” Hazen, , erythritol, Andrew Freeman, ” Freeman, Robert Rankin, ” Rankin, Hazen, “ It’s, Erythritol, Hazen’s, Oliver Jones, ” Jones, You’ll, Health’s Freeman Organizations: CNN, Center for Cardiovascular Diagnostics, Cleveland Clinic Lerner Research Institute, People, Nature, Jewish Health, European Association of Polyol, Cleveland Clinic’s Center, Human, RMIT University, National Health, European Food Safety Authority, Food and Drug Administration Locations: Denver, United States, Europe, erythritol, Australia
Should I Refinance My Mortgage?
  + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +9 min
By Michele LernerFor most people, the prime reason to refinance a mortgage is to lower their interest rate and monthly payments. While there are many reasons people refinance (more on that later), normally when someone has a low mortgage rate, they don’t refinance into a higher one, says Erin Wood, a financial planner with the Carson Group in Omaha, Neb. Here are a few reasons to refinance your mortgage:To reduce your paymentsThe simplest way to lower your monthly payments is if you can refinance into a lower mortgage rate, which reduces the interest you pay on your loan. Generally, closing costs for a mortgage refinance range from 2% to 5% of the new loan amount. That expense means it only makes sense to refinance if you can reduce your mortgage rate by half a percentage point or more, says Middleman.
Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading as Wall Street braced for the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes and more insight on the central bank's future hiking agenda. Shares of Palo Alto Networks popped after the bell as the cybersecurity company lifted its earnings forecast for the year. Meanwhile, futures linked to the S&P 500 inched 0.12% higher, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.16%. Mounting concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking rates spooked investors during regular trading Tuesday and pushed stocks to cap off their worst day of 2023. Investors will scour the results for insight into the central bank's future rate hiking path and its recent 25 basis point increase.
Ted Lerner greeted fans at the groundbreaking ceremony for the Washington Nationals baseball stadium in 2006. After grinding his way through George Washington University’s law school, Ted Lerner decided he would rather sell houses. It was the early 1950s, and he was willing to put in 18-hour days. Home builders liked his imaginative techniques. One November, he decorated a model home like a giant Christmas present.
Are you getting a pay raise this year?
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Cindy Perman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
"Job switching is one of the best ways to get a raise," Nick Bunker, economic research director at Indeed, told CNBC. In January, for example, those who stayed got an average raise of 5.4%, while those who switched scored an average salary increase of 7.3%. Your best shot at getting that raise is going in there prepared. "State facts so you can show your boss what you're worth," Vicki Salemi, a career expert at Monster.com, told CNBC. Here are a few tips for asking for a raise: Know the going rate for your line of work.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full post-market discussion with G Squared's Victoria Greene, Keith Lerner of Truist and Dan Greenhaus of SolusG Squared's Victoria Greene, Keith Lerner of Truist and Dan Greenhaus of Solus join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss today's market reversal and the positive earnings announcements from Roku, Cisco and Zillow.
Ted Lerner , the billionaire real-estate developer whose family bought the Washington Nationals in 2006, has died, the team announced Monday. He was 97 years old. A Nationals spokesperson said Mr. Lerner died Sunday of complications from pneumonia at his home in Chevy Chase, Md.
Sam Bankman-Fried's psychiatrist was also employed as FTX's in-house performance coach, according to the Journal. Dr. George Lerner didn't just focus on careers, but the dating lives of FTX employees as well. "They were amazing people — driven, brilliant, wanting to make a positive impact on the world," Lerner told the Journal. Lerner didn't just focus on careers, but the dating lives of FTX employees as well. His relationship with FTX staff also may have extended to an unhealthy side.
The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 1.3% along with a 6 basis points rise in the 10-year U.S. benchmark Treasury yield . yields vs stocksHigher bond yields dull the relative appeal of stocks while raising companies’ borrowing costs. Higher Treasury yields can also weaken the valuations of equities in standard valuation models, particularly for tech and other companies that rely on future profits that are discounted at higher rates when yields rise. Meanwhile, some investors are not yet worried about the threat to stocks from yields. Jacobsen is bullish on growth stocks, which were squashed by higher yields last year but have staged a strong rebound in 2023.
Early last year, Sam Bankman-Fried told an FTX all-hands meeting about an addition to the company’s staff. It wasn’t a head of accounting. It wasn’t a risk manager. Instead, it was a psychiatrist who would serve as coach for stressed-out employees at the fast-growing crypto exchange. Dr. George Lerner introduced himself on the video meeting and encouraged workers to consult with him, meeting attendees recalled.
SBF's personal psychiatrist was on staff at FTX, according to the Wall Street Journal. Dr. George Lerner was hired to engage with employees as a "coach," not a medical professional, the Journal reported. In an email, Lerner told the Wall Street Journal he focused on creating a sustainable work environment while at the company. "They were amazing people — driven, brilliant, wanting to make a positive impact on the world," Lerner told the Journal. Following the collapse of FTX and amid charges of fraud against Bankman-Fried, Lerner told the Journal he's now focusing on rebuilding his private practice.
When Ms. Latney was growing up in Washington, D.C., her grandmother owned four apartment houses and a single-family home in the area, all of which she passed down to her six children. Ms. Latney was raised in one of those houses. “Everyone in my family bought a house because of the legacy of my grandmother,” she said. For three years, she rented a two-bedroom apartment in Northeast Washington, for about $1,000 a month, before briefly moving in with her mother. “I wanted to get the commission and not put my hard-earned money in someone else’s hands,” said Ms. Latney, who is now a sales associate with Coldwell Banker.
Since March, Rosenberg has warned that by trying to crush inflation, the Fed would inadvertently kill the economy as well. "I think that the odds now are that it's going to be more severe than people think because the Fed has gone way overboard," Rosenberg said of a recession. The contrarian view: With inflation falling, a recession is no guaranteeHowever, not every strategist thinks that a recession is a sure thing. But what I think we can see is the Federal Reserve is overdoing it and eventually, the Fed will have to cut rates." Fittingly, Parker's bets are contingent on his view that the US economy won't suffer from a severe recession.
Wall Street finished the first month of 2023 on a high note, with the S & P 500 rising 6.2% for its best January performance since 2019. The 10 worst-performing stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust in 2022 climbed an average of 21% in January. Those holdings, which climbed an average of 39.8% in 2022, only rose an average of 0.9% in the first month of this year. Of the S & P 500's 11 sectors, energy was the only one to finish 2022 in positive territory, gaining 59%. But it remains to be seen whether January's market leaders will continue to power the S & P higher as the year progresses.
The heavyweight tech sector (.SPLRCT) dropped 1.9% while energy (.SPNY) shed 2.3%, the biggest drop among the S&P 500 sectors. More than 100 S&P 500 companies are expected to report results this week, which also includes central bank meetings in the United States and Europe and closely watched U.S. employment data. Despite Monday's declines, the S&P 500 remained on track to post its biggest January gain since 2019. With more than 140 companies having reported so far, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 3% in the fourth quarter compared with the prior-year period, according to Refinitiv IBES. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 67 new highs and 20 new lows.
Investors widely expect the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, with announcements on Thursday from the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), both of which are largely expected to hike by 50 bps. The U.S. corporate earnings season also rolls on, with earnings this week expected from Apple (AAPL.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O). The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.17% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.99%. U.S. Treasury yields rose ahead of the central bank meetings and economic data, with the 10-year yield up for a third consecutive session. Crude prices fell ahead of the expected hikes by central banks and signals of strong Russian exports.
More than 100 S&P 500 companies are expected to report results this week, which also includes central bank meetings in the United States and Europe and closely watched U.S. employment data. Despite Monday's declines, the S&P 500 was on track to post its biggest January gain since 2019. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to deliver another large rate hike on Thursday. With more than 140 companies having reported so far, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 3% in the fourth quarter compared with the prior-year period, according to Refinitiv IBES. The S&P 500 posted five new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 51 new highs and 14 new lows.
Earnings for all S & P 500 companies fell 2.9% for the fourth quarter, based on actual reports and estimates. Rauscher expects a shallow recession, and his view is S & P 500 earnings for 2023 will be about $210, below the street's consensus closer to $230. According to Refinitiv, analysts expect a 1.2% decline in first quarter earnings, followed by a 2% drop in the second quarter. Tech earnings have been a mixed bag. He remains defensive on the market even with the 6.5% gain in the S & P 500 in January so far.
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The Fed's meeting Tuesday and Wednesday comes amid a flood of corporate earnings reports, with about 20% of the S & P 500 reporting that week. The most important day for earnings is Thursday, when Apple , Alphabet and Amazon report after the bell. The Nasdaq Composite was up 11% for the month as of Friday afternoon, well ahead of the 6.2% gain in the S & P 500. Traders have been watching the S & P 500 edge closer to the key threshold of 4,100 , its high from December. AAPL 1Y line apple Apple is also important because of the signals it can send about the strength of the consumer, supply chains and China's reopening.
Haley also tapped Betsy Ankney, a former political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, to run the PAC, according to Axios. Longtime Haley advisor Jon Lerner, will likely have leadership roles within a Haley presidential campaign, two of the people said. Haley has publicly hinted in two recent interviews with Fox News that she could be ready to run for president. Kevin Lemarque | ReutersTrump, who lost his reelection bid to Biden in 2020, is the only candidate so far to jump into the 2024 presidential race. She even said in 2021 that she wouldn't run for president in 2024 if Trump was on the ballot.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTop-line revenue growth saved the day for earnings in 2022, says John Hancock's Emily RolandKeith Lerner of Truist Wealth and Emily Roland of John Hancock Investment Management join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss stocks versus bonds, elevated earnings estimates and modest expectations for Q1 2023.
The S&P 500 tumbled 19.4% in 2022, as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes designed to tamp down 40-year high inflation punished asset prices. The market's 2022 slide cut the ratio of price to forward earnings estimates to around 17 from about 21.7 a year ago, according to Refinitiv Datastream. S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio over timeValuations may still be too high if a recession comes to pass, as many on Wall Street expect. Combined with an expectation of weakening earnings estimates, that would lower the S&P 500 to 3,200, UBS said, roughly 16% below current levels. The 2022 surge in interest rates also could undermine stock valuations by making relatively safe assets like U.S. Treasuries more attractive alternatives.
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