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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis relief rally has matured and market risk has heightened, says Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down the technicals driving the latest market action.
They are watching the S & P 500 as it trades below its 200-day moving average after lifting above that threshold briefly. The S & P 500 surpassed the average on Nov. 30 and fell below it Monday. The 200-day is now at 4,040 for the broad-market index, and the S & P 500 closed at 3,933.92 on Wednesday. A loss of short-term momentum "I think the real story is within the downturn, we're losing short-term momentum. Stockton said her indicators showed the flip in the S & P 500 Tuesday.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBreath measures are still trending downward suggesting more participation ahead, says Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss market indicators of inflation reduction, energy and discretionary stocks lagging, and rises in treasury yields.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect sell signals for equity markets soon, says Fairlead's Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' ahead of the open on Friday with a technical breakdown of the latest market action.
Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, said investors could look at volatility products as a way to hedge their long positions in the bumpy market right now. The S & P 500 fell into a bear market, and today stands about 15% lower on the year. Samantha LaDuc of LaDuc Trading said that she added a few positions for downside protection recently. "In my 40 years of experience, bear market rallies are more vicious than bull market rallies," Kalayjian said. "I think this is a tradable market right now.
Apple stock was down more than 2% Tuesday, after declining Monday and Friday. Apple's sizeable weighting Apple is 6.5% of the S & P 500 market cap, and technical analysts say it has implications for the broad market both in price impact and sentiment. Apple is 6.5% of the S & P. I would say it's remarkable how strong the S & P 500 is today with a 2% decline in Apple. "I can't imagine that happening without getting a sell signal on the S & P chart." She said the S & P 500 chart is maintaining a buy signal that has been in place for several weeks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket relief rally still has short-term momentum, says Fairlead Strategies' Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down her market outlook ahead of the open.
"Leadership has shifted away from the tech sector and FANMAG. Two major challenges for tech names Clissold said the tech sector is facing two major challenges. Stockton said the peak in the Nasdaq last November was also the peak of its outperformance versus the S & P 500. The tech sector outperformed the S & P 500, but it was the materials sector that led the index higher, up about 19%. However, the S & P 500 has been up just 20%.
The sustainability of a year-end rally in the stock market hinges on Apple, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton. "A breakout would likely foster a greater relief rally given Apple's influence on the major indices and sentiment," Stockton said. With the stock market on the verge of entering its best performing period on a seasonal basis, a continued relief rally is on the table. "Apple may hold clues as to the strength of the relief rally," Stockton said. "A breakout would likely foster a greater relief rally given Apple's influence on the major indices and sentiment," Stockton said.
Some strategists expect the S & P 500 to rally as high as about 4,100 and top out there. They had a lead time of two weeks to when the S & P peaked," she said. "I'm not recommending countertrend positions, but I do think think the Nasdaq-100 could outperform temporarily," she said. Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, agrees the S & P 500 could rally until 4,100, still below its August high of 4,325. But until then, the S & P will take aim at its 200-day moving average, at 4,078.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI'm surprised bitcoin, ether did not see more damage, says Fairlead's Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down the technicals driving the latest bear market rally.
October consumer price index (CPI) month over month rose 0.4% versus the 0.6% that economists expected; ex-food and energy up 0.3% vs 0.5% expected. The headline year-over-year rate of 7.7% (lower than 7.9% expected) is now trending down four consecutive months. Finally, some signs inflation may be moderating, while jobs remain strong, even though we are hearing reports of accelerating layoffs in the tech sector. "You're seeing windows, floor covering decline, all related to housing. You're seeing the housing spillover starting to hit housing-related purchases, everything from appliances, furniture, floor coverings, window coverings."
There may be some opportunities for investors to sell stocks with gains in the coming weeks as markets pose a relief rally, technical analyst Katie Stockton said Thursday. "We saw the relief rally then and over the summer extend higher for another month or so." Technical signals flashing Part of the summer rally was boosted by seasonal factors, she said. Tech oversold There's also favorable action in the Nasdaq 100, which has underperformed and exhibited strong downward momentum as of late. Tech stocks, which make up a large portion of the Nasdaq 100, surged in early trading Thursday.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are still in store for more to come on the downside, says Fairlead's Katie StocktonKatie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Carl Quintanilla and the 'CNBC Special: Taking stock' to discuss today's massive rally after a weaker-than-expected CPI number.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA relief rally in coming weeks would be a selling opportunity, says Fairlead's Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to react to October's lighter-than-expected inflation report and breaks down her market forecast ahead of the open.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis relief rally could last several weeks, says Fairlead's Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether the recent relief rally has legs ahead of the Federal Reserve's looming interest rate decision.
This earnings season's tech wreck could continue to pressure the Nasdaq Composite, while other sectors may help broader indices deflect some of the pain. Amazon 's stock was hammered after the company missed estimates and gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current quarter . The two were members of FANG, a group of four favorite stocks that joined other Big Tech in carrying the market to highs before the bear market. Apple's report has been much anticipated by investors, since it is 7% of the S & P 500. "A favorable reaction could lift tech off its lows and help extend the relief rally in the S & P. A gap down would do the opposite."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBeyond the near-term we do think the bear market will keep hold, says Fairlead's StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss why she is long-term bullish and short-term cautious, the technicals in the S&P 500 and what she infers from the dollar's recent price action.
The month of October, celebrated as "Uptober" by long-time crypto investors, has historically churned out some big gains for bitcoin. In seven of the last 10 years, bitcoin has posted a positive month. For four of the last six years, ether has ended the October trading month higher, according to Kaiko. Bitcoin was lower for the month by 0.3% as of Tuesday, while ether was down 1.4%, according to Coin Metrics. "Crypto market volatility has dipped to multi-year lows over the past month, with bitcoin's 20-day volatility now equal to that of the Nasdaq equity index," Kaiko head of research Clara Medalie told CNBC.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTLT trade is counter trend and holds more risk, says Fairlead Strategies' Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Treasury yields, signals of a corrective action to yields in the near-term and positive seasonal influences that contributed to the rally.
The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield has been setting new 14-year highs, but strategists expect it to ease from those levels in a matter of weeks, relieving pressure on the stock market. The 2-year Treasury yield, for instance, rose to 4.54% — its highest since 2007. Bond strategists and technical analysts say there is some scope for the 10-year yield to reverse course. Higher yields pressure stocks for a couple of reasons. "If we continue to see strong hiring and a low unemployment rate that will keep rates higher ... the softer the landing the higher rates will be," said Jeffery.
But Emanuel sees the chance for a 17% to 20% rally in the S & P 500. The S & P 500 was down about 0.9% for the week, as of Friday afternoon, and it was hovering just above 3,600. S & P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 3.6% for the third quarter, based on actual reports and estimates, according to Refinitiv. Without the boost from more than doubling profits from energy companies, S & P earnings would decline by 3.1%. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Bank of America , Bank of NY Mellon, Charles Schwab 8:30 a.m.
Analysts at Barclays raised their forecasts on Fed rate hikes in December and February to 75 and 50 basis points, respectively. Any relief rally that takes hold in the stock market could send the S&P 500 to its first big resistance test around 3,914, Stockton added. High inflation reports could become the norm after more than a decade of sub-2% inflation readings, according to Bank of America. That's because underinvestment in energy production, sticky wage inflation, and aging demographics are set to drive structural inflation for years to come. There's reason to believe the stock market is close to its low point, according to RBC.
An ETF that mirrors the S & P technology sector has fallen 33% this year, while the ETF representing the energy sector is up 45%. On top of that, Strategas found that the energy sector is punching above its weight when it comes to earnings power. For instance, its 12-month trailing earnings weight among S & P 500 companies is more than double its S & P 500 market cap weight of about 5%. In the past 50 years, the sector has traditionally been about 11% of the S & P 500, he said. S & P energy earnings are expected to soar 121% in the third quarter, while total S & P 500 earnings are expected to grow just 4.1%, according to Refinitiv.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStockton: The S&P 500 is in a decisive breakdown below the summertime lowsFairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton discusses whether the markets will retest the June lows, why commodities continue to offer some opportunities, and reveals her biggest short position right now.
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