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☆ VIEW Turkey cements policy shift with super-sized rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A logo of Turkey's Central Bank is pictured at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey October 15, 2021. "We should recall that sudden changes in interest rates usually have a delayed effect. "This was also the steepest rate hike since the CBT management reshuffle after the elections in May. We think the strong rate hike meant to address market concerns that the CBT wanted to avoid significant rate hike." TIMOTHY ASH, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON"Really solid move by the CBRT (central bank) to hike policy rates arguably above expectations by 750bps to 25%."

Persons: Cagla, GRZEGORZ DROZDZ, TIMOTHY ASH, 750bps, Hatice Karahan, Hatice Gaye, PIOTR MATYS, Governor Erkan, Erdogan, LIAM PEACH, Erkan, OZKARDESKAYA, SWISSQUOTE Organizations: Turkey's Central, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkish, EMERGINGMARKETWATCH.COM, SOFIA, GENEVA

☆ China's deflation could spill over into a global concern, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

SHENZHEN, CHINA - MARCH 09: View of high commercial and residential buildings on March 9, 2016 in Shenzhen, China. "As a result, Chinese economic weakness and falling prices (especially Chinese producer prices) are likely to spill over into global markets — near-term good news for the Western central banks' fight against elevated inflation." "China's disappointing rebound is now feeding negatively into global sentiment and growth. Beyond the trade-related spillovers, a common global disinflationary pressure comes from commodity prices, where as a huge importer of commodities, Chinese domestic demand remains a key factor. "Weak Chinese domestic investment and broad-based excess capacity in manufacturing, as well as weak sales of new homes and land, are likely to continue to depress global commodity demand," Wilding and Liao said.

Persons: Zhong Zhi, Tiffany Wilding, Wilding, Carol Liao, Montgomery Koning, Liao, TS Lombard's Montgomery Koning Organizations: Getty, National Bureau, Statistics, Evergrande, TS Lombard, Lombard, U.S, Census, TS Lombard's Locations: SHENZHEN, CHINA, Shenzhen, China, U.S, Beijing, West, Germany

[1/3] Euro currency bills are pictured at the Croatian National Bank in Zagreb, Croatia, May 21, 2019. The services component sank to 48.3 from 50.9, its first time below the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction this year. The single currency weakened after the German data, hitting its lowest level against the dollar since June 15 at $1.0805. "The decline in services activity was a sharp move and we've seen a soft euro environment," said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. The spot yuan opened at 7.2870 per dollar on Wednesday and was last changing hands at 7.2899.

Persons: Antonio Bronic, Niels Christensen, Martin Beck, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Nordea's Christensen, Colin Asher, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Kim Coghill, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: Croatian National Bank, REUTERS, P, European Central Bank, PMI, Bank of England, Reuters, Federal, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Mizuho, Thomson Locations: Zagreb, Croatia, Britain, July's, U.S, Europe, tenterhooks, Tokyo, London, Singapore

☆ German business activity suffers steepest decline since May 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Aug 23 (Reuters) - German business activity contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years in August, a preliminary survey showed on Wednesday. A deepening downturn in manufacturing output was accompanied by a renewed contraction in services activity. Business activity in the services sector contracted for the first time in eight months. The manufacturing PMI rose to 39.1 in August from 38.8 in July but remained deeply in contraction territory, the survey showed. There was an increase in inflationary pressures, driven by accelerated cost and price increases in the service sector.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Maria Martinez, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Services, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Hamburg

☆ China should stick to 'houses are for living, not for speculation' - state media
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Aug 23 (Reuters) - China should adhere to the principle that "houses are for living in, not for speculation" for the time being, the state-run Economic Daily said in an editorial on Wednesday, amid an economically damaging downturn in the property sector. "The positioning of 'houses are for living in, not for speculation' should be insisted on and it is not out of date," the Economic Daily said in an editorial. But they were disappointed when the People's Bank of China (PBOC) held the five-year loan prime rate steady on Monday. Property-related loans accounts for 40% of banks' lending, and property ownership accounts for 60% of Chinese household wealth, the Economic Daily said. Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Ryan Woo; Editing by Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China

☆ Treasury yields mostly lower as rally takes a pause ahead of Jackson Hole
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Treasury yields were lower at the long end of the curve on Wednesday as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. At the shorter end of the curve, yields were marginally higher. "We have one big weapon and that is credibility," Barkin said to the Danville Pittsylvania County Chamber of Commerce. "There is nothing magic about 2 except that when you set that as a target you probably want to achieve it." On the data front, S&P Global's flash purchasing managers' index readings for August are due at 9:45 a.m.

Persons: Jackson, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Richmond Fed, of Commerce Locations: Wyoming, Danville Pittsylvania County

☆ Slide in euro zone service sector sharpens ECB's rates dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity declined far more than thought in August with the slide in Germany particularly fast, while some inflationary pressures returned, surveys showed. Euro zone government bond yields and the euro tumbled after Wednesday's data as traders bet the ECB may soon pause its interest-rate hiking campaign. SERVICE SECTOR SLIDESThe euro zone services PMI sank as indebted consumers feeling the pinch from rising borrowing costs reined in spending. The services output prices index remained elevated at 55.9, albeit the lowest since October 2021 and below July's 56.1. "Another weak PMI for the euro zone confirms a sluggish economy with recession as a downside risk.

Persons: Mark Wall, Sarah Meyssonnier, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson, Toby Chopra Organizations: European Central Bank, Reuters, PMI, Deutsche Bank, ECB, P Global, REUTERS, European Union, ING, Thomson Locations: Germany, July's, Europe's, Paris, France

☆ US existing home sales drop, but prices up from a year earlier
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sales fell in the Northeast, Midwest and South, but rose in the West. Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, fell 16.6% on a year-on-year basis in July. At July's sales pace, it would take 3.3 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.2 months a year ago. The median existing house price rose 1.9% from a year earlier to $406,700 in July, the fourth time it has topped $400,000. "Two factors are driving current sales activity - inventory availability and mortgage rates," said Lawrence Yun, the NAR's chief economist.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, National Association of Realtors, Reuters, Federal, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Northeast, Midwest

☆ Will the Fed Raise Rates Again? Explaining July's FOMC Meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Dion Rabouin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

What’s Going On With Inflation? Unpacking the Latest CPI Report Inflation is once again in focus now that the Fed has announced future decisions will be based entirely on data. The July CPI report will play a major role in what comes next for the market and the economy. Photo: Michael Conroy

Persons: What’s, Michael Conroy Organizations: Fed

☆ Kiss for World Cup winner Jenni Hermoso criticised by Spanish ministers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The kiss happened as Luis Rubiales, the president of the Spanish soccer federation, distributed gold medals among the team following their 1-0 victory over England on Sunday. Hermoso later played down the incident in a statement sent to Spanish news agency EFE by the federation. "It was mutual gesture that was totally spontaneous prompted by the huge joy of winning a world cup," the statement said. Acting Culture and Sports Minister Miquel Iceta said on Monday on RNE radio the kiss was unacceptable and asked Rubiales to give an explanation and apologise. Reporting by Inti Landauro and Fernando Kallas; Editing by Aislinn Laing and Alison WilliamsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jennifer Hermoso, Amanda Perobelli, Hermoso, Jenni Hermoso, Luis Rubiales, EFE, Rubiales, Jenni, Miquel Iceta, Irene Montero, Ione Belarra, Jenni didn't, Montero's, Inti Landauro, Fernando Kallas, Aislinn Laing, Alison Williams Organizations: Soccer Football, FIFA, Spain Press, Eden, YouTube, El Mundo, England, Spain's COPE Radio, Radio Marca, Sports, Twitter, Social, El Pais, Thomson Locations: New Zealand, Auckland , New Zealand, MADRID, Spanish, Spain, Spain's

☆ Asking prices for UK homes drop sharply - Rightmove
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Toby Melville/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Asking prices for homes in Britain fell sharply this month as rising mortgage costs caused sellers to lower their expectations of what they can get for their properties, an industry survey showed on Monday. Website Rightmove said average asking prices for homes dropped by 1.9%, the biggest monthly fall for August since 2018 and twice as steep as the usual summertime fall. Mortgage lenders Nationwide and Halifax both previously reported falls in selling prices in July. Rightmove's survey also showed the number of home sales was down 15% compared with 2019, before the pandemic. Average asking prices for homes were 2% below their peak in May but, reflecting the surge in demand during the pandemic, remained 19% higher than in August 2019, Rightmove said.

Persons: Toby Melville, Rightmove, William Schomberg, Suban Abdulla Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Nationwide, Halifax, Homes, Thomson Locations: Bristol, Britain

☆ UK jobs market lost some of its heat in July - survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Britain's labour market is losing some of its inflationary heat with vacancies and advertised starting salaries falling in July for the first time this year, according to a survey published on Monday. Job search website Adzuna also said the number of job-seekers per vacancy rose slightly in July but the overall state of the labour market remained tight. The Bank of England is looking closely at the labour market as it considers how much further it needs to raise interest rates to smother high inflation. Adzuna said employers were becoming more secretive about pay rates as the labour market cooled with over half of adverts not disclosing salary details for the first time. Writing by William Schomberg, Editing by Kylie MacLellanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adzuna, Andrew Hunter, William Schomberg, Kylie MacLellan Organizations: The Bank of England, Thomson

Official data showed sales volumes last month were 1.2% lower than in June. Food stores sales volumes fell by a monthly 2.6% while non-food stores sales volumes fell by 1.7%. However, July's data represented only the second time that sales volumes fell on a month-to-month basis so far in 2023, suggesting resilience in consumer demand. Market research firm GfK reported last month that consumer confidence fell in July for the first time since January. Retail sales volumes were 3.2% lower than a year earlier, the ONS said, compared with economists' forecasts for a 2.1% decline.

Persons: Sterling, Heather Bovill, Ruth Gregory, GfK, Samuel Tombs, BoE, Tombs, Spencer, James Davey, Kate Holton, Susan Fenton Organizations: Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Department, Bank of England, Capital Economics, Macroeconomics, Thomson

☆ Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says the US won't spiral into a new bout of inflation even as economy stays hot
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US won't see a resurgence in inflation, according to Jeremy Siegel. That was a reflection of poor productivity in the economy, Siegel said – a trend that has since turned around:"It was the worst productivity performance in over 70 years. This year we are hiring at less than half the pace and we have two to three times the level of GDP growth. That's why we can have this tremendous GDP growth and still have the disinflationary trend." And inflation won't reaccelerate as improving productivity justifies higher wages and drives more economic output, Siegel explained.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, Jay Powell, Stocks Organizations: CNBC, Service, Atlanta Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, BlackRock

With equipment idling as construction slows and dwindling exports curb manufacturing, diesel demand is likely to ebb. Rystad Energy lowered its forecast for China's diesel demand for July to December this year to 3.81 million barrels per day (bpd) from an earlier outlook of 3.9 million bpd, though the new forecast is up 3.8% from the first half of 2023. "Diesel demand is still growing, but at a lower-than-expected rate," said Lin Ye, a Beijing-based downstream analyst at Rystad, citing the ailing property sector and deteriorating trade environment. An uptick in Chinese diesel demand earlier this year, driven by resurgent road freight transport in the first quarter, has lost momentum. August diesel exports are estimated at 650,000 to 800,000 tons, down from July's estimate of 1 million tons, data compiled by consultancy Longzhong and China-based trading analysts showed.

Persons: Aly, Lin Ye, Xia Shiqing, Wood Mackenzie, Mia Geng, Andrew Hayley, Trixie Yap, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Energy, International Energy Agency, IEA, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Huangpu, Shanghai, China, Rights BEIJING, Beijing, Asia, Longzhong, Singapore

☆ Spanish Socialists' candidate elected speaker with support of Catalan groups
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Francina Armengol was appointed speaker after winning 178 votes in the 350-seat parliament. The candidate of the conservative People's Party (PP) won just 137 votes, while far-right Vox, which is in coalition with the PP in several Spanish regions, voted for its own candidate, Ignacio Gil instead of the PP's. Her candidacy for the speakership was seen as a nod to Catalan, Basque and Galician parties. CONCESSIONS TO SEPARATISTSERC leader Gabriel Rufian told a news conference that while the party had supported the Socialists' candidate for congressional speaker, that did not imply support for the formation of a Sanchez government. More hardline separatist party Junts also struck a deal in principle to back Armengol, according to state broadcaster TVE.

Persons: Pedro Sanchez's, Francina Armengol, Ignacio Gil, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, Sumar, Esquerra Republicana, Armengol, Gabriel Rufian, Junts, Sanchez, Carles Puigdemont, Inti Landauro, Charlie Devereux, Andrei Khalip, Angus MacSwan, Aislinn Laing, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Spanish Socialist Workers ' Party, PSOE, Spain's Socialists, People's Party, Socialists, Vox, Catalonian, ERC, TVE, Thomson Locations: Madrid, MADRID, Catalan, Spain, Catalonia, Balearic, Basque, Galician, Belgium

☆ Morning Bid: Rattled by the China and Fed double whammy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Underwhelming economic data, along with the ever-deepening property crisis, have unnerved investors and taken Asian stocks to their lowest since November. Zhongzhi Enterprise Group told investors that it was facing a liquidity crisis and will conduct a debt restructuring, two sources told Reuters. European stocks have been hamstrung too, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) touching a one-month low on Wednesday and eyeing a lower open on Thursday. But it's important to remember that July's meeting came before a raft of U.S. data that underscored the resilient economy. England will face Spain on Sunday, looking to add a world title to last year's European Championship triumph.

Persons: Ankur Banerjee, Zhongzhi, Muralikumar Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, Staff, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Reuters, International Trust Co, U.S, Federal, Traders, Australia, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Silicon, Germany, Ankur, Asia, China, England, Spain, Croatia, Singapore

☆ 10-year Treasury yield rises as investors digest Fed meeting minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3 basis points higher at 4.288%, its highest level since October 2022. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed Thursday as investors digested minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting and considered the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Investors weighed what could be next for inflation and Federal Reserve monetary policy as they digested the minutes from the central bank's last meeting in July, which were released on Wednesday. In July's meeting minutes, Fed officials noted that inflation was still too high, but there were signs that pressures from higher prices are easing. Fresh inflation data has been released since the central bank's July meeting and painted a mixed picture.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Federal Locations: Philadelphia

☆ US stocks fall as Fed minutes show officials think hot inflation could still require more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks closed lower on Wednesday after Fed minutes showed officials remain worried about inflation. Markets have been confident in their belief that the July rate hike was the last of the Fed's cycle. "The Fed wants to talk tough on inflation, but it's obvious they are done with rate hikes. "The July 26 rate hike was most likely not a one and done as the latest round of data suggests." The Fed will have another inflation report and another jobs report to sift through before it makes another policy decision.

Persons: Jamie Cox, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Service, Reserve, Harris Financial, LPL, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ ESA chief sees Ariane 6 debut launch delayed to next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A worker of Ariane Group stands in front of a Ariane 6 rocket's Vulcain 2.1 engine, prior to the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, in Vernon, France January 12, 2021. Christophe Ena/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsPARIS, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The first launch of Europe's new Ariane 6 rocket has slipped into 2024 after an incomplete recent ground test, the head of the European Space Agency suggested in remarks to Reuters. Ninety percent of July's objectives were met and further tests are scheduled for September, it added. "After this series of tests we plan to consolidate a launch date for Ariane 6," ESA Director General Josef Aschbacher told Reuters. Asked whether it was fair to assume that plans for a test launch before the end of the year were now out of reach, Aschbacher told Reuters, "This is fair to say, yes".

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Christophe Ena, Safran, Josef Aschbacher, Aschbacher, Guillaume Faury, Tim Hepher, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Ariane, Rights, European Space Agency, Reuters, ESA, Airbus, Paris Air Forum, Thomson Locations: Vernon, France, Guiana, Germany, European

☆ China's banks have dialed back lending to the lowest level in 14 years as economic woes pile up
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

In July, the volume of loans doled out from Chinese banks hit their lowest amount since 2009. The People's Bank of China said new loans reached 345.9 billion yuan in July, less than half the amount expected by Bloomberg economists. Chinese banks doled out 345.9 billion yuan in new loans last month, well below the 780 billion yuan economists had expected, according to a Bloomberg report and survey. Additionally, the People's Bank of China said year-on-year growth of broad M2 money supply slowed to 10.7%. On Tuesday, the People's Bank of China cut several interest rates in a bid to boost the economy, following a similar move in June.

Persons: David Dollar Organizations: People's Bank of China, Bloomberg, Service, People's Bank of, Brookings Locations: Wall, Silicon, People's Bank of China, China

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading more than 3 basis points lower at 4.188%. The 2-year Treasury was down nearly 4 basis points at 4.916%. U.S. Treasury yields stumbled on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes and assessed the outlook for interest rates. The Fed has hiked rates at all but one of its meetings since March 2022, a total of 11 times. Three central bank meetings remain this year and investors will be scanning the meeting minutes for fresh clues about what policy decisions could be made by the Fed then.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Fed

It's likely that the lower spot prices for iron ore in recent weeks are encouraging traders and steel mills to boost imports. The problems at Country Garden are stoking fears of contagion in China's property sector, which is facing a cash crunch. China iron ore imports vs priceLOANS TUMBLEAdding to the property woes was data released on Tuesday showing China's industrial output and retail sales slowed and undershot forecasts. Another potential factor supporting iron ore imports is the low state of port inventories, which last week dropped to the lowest in just over three years. They are also below the 138.6 million metric tons in the same week in 2022 and the 127.2 million in 2021.

Persons: Fortescue, David Gray, Refinitiv, It's, SteelHome, Robert Birsel Organizations: Port Hedland, REUTERS, HK, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Port, Pilbara, Western Australia, LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Beijing, Singapore, China's

☆ Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, better than expected as consumer spending is holding up
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending held up well in July as inflation slowed, with retail sales turning in a stronger-than-expected showing for the month, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced retail sales report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% for the month, better than the 0.4% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding autos, sales rose a robust 1%, also against a 0.4% forecast. Gas station sales rose just 0.4% on the month despite rising prices at the pump. On a 12-month basis, sales rose 3.2%, which is exactly in line with the annual increase in the CPI.

Persons: Dow Jones, Mike Loewengart, Jim Baird, Plante Organizations: Commerce Department, Gas, Federal, Fed, Morgan Stanley Global Investment, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Export, Consumers, Financial Advisors, Empire, Manufacturing Survey Locations: U.S, New York

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was more than 5 basis points higher at 4.235%. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as investors awaited economic data and reports that could provide fresh insights into the state of the economy and the outlook for interest rates. Investors looked ahead to economic data and reports slated for the week. Import and export price data is also due Tuesday and Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to make remarks. Following the Fed's July meeting, central bank chief Jerome Powell said a range of options were still on the table and interest rate decisions would depend on economic data.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Minneapolis Federal

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