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Oil falls on surprise increase to U.S. inventories
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Summary U.S. consumer price index figures for April due on WednesdayComing up: EIA data on U.S. oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. EDTMay 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Wednesday, ending a three-day rally as an unexpected rise in U.S. oil inventories sparked demand concerns and investors awaited inflation data for a steer on U.S. interest rates. U.S. government data on oil inventories is due on Wednesday. The surprising U.S. inventory build along with lower crude imports and April's softer export growth in China exacerbated worries about global oil demand. "Crude futures were unwinding Tuesday’s modest gains early Wednesday as economic worries occupied centre stage, especially over the world’s two largest economies," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. OPEC and its allies, together known as OPEC+, agreed last month to cut production by 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd) from May through to the end of the year.
The data defied expectations from eight analysts polled by Reuters for a 900,000-barrel drawdown in crude inventories and a 1.2 million-barrel drop in gasoline stocks. U.S. government data on oil inventories is due on Wednesday. Media reported that Russia's Energy Ministry said the nation's oil output reduction almost reached targeted levels in April. Saudi Arabia, which pledged to cut production by 500,000 bpd from May, has informed buyers in Asia that it will supply full crude oil volumes requested for June. The wildfires forced oil and gas producers to shut in at least 319,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), or 3.7% of the country's production.
The data defied expectations from eight analysts polled by Reuters for a 900,000-barrel drawdown in crude inventories and a 1.2 million-barrel drop in gasoline stocks. U.S. government data on oil inventories is due on Wednesday. Media reported that Russia's Energy Ministry said the nation's oil output reduction almost reached targeted levels in April. Saudi Arabia, which pledged to cut production by 500,000 bpd from May, has informed buyers in Asia that it will supply full crude oil volumes requested for June. The wildfires forced oil and gas producers to shut in at least 319,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), or 3.7% of the country's production.
Brent crude dropped 16 cents to $77.28 a barrel at 0008 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 20 cents to $73.51, paring gains from the previous session. In a possible sign of weakening demand, U.S. crude inventories rose by about 3.6 million barrels in the week ended May 5, while gasoline stockpiles rose by 399,000 barrels, the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday according to market sources. The data defied expectations from eight analysts polled by Reuters for a 900,000-barrel drawdown in crude inventories and a 1.2 million-barrel drop in gasoline stocks. U.S. government data on oil inventories is due on Wednesday. The wildfires forced oil and gas producers to shut in at least 319,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), or 3.7% of the country's production.
Instead, the pace of price increases slowed from a year ago. But they may be suffering from even bigger price increases for margarine, which was up 24%. Poorer households spend a greater portion of their income on unavoidable expenses like food and gas, which makes them more vulnerable to price increases. Not everything is responding well to interest rate hikesThe Federal Reserve spent the past year hiking interest rates in the interest of lowering inflation. When the Fed raises interest rates, it costs more for banks and other lenders to borrow money.
Markets had a quiet Tuesday as investors braced for key inflation reports coming out later today and Thursday. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Gold holds steady ahead of U.S. inflation print
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars are displayed at a bullion merchant's, Baird & Co., in London, U.K., on Friday, March 14, 2008. Gold prices were flat on Wednesday, as traders positioned themselves for key U.S inflation data due later in the day, which could impact the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates dull non-yielding bullion's appeal. "The outlook of a weak U.S. currency and yields reignite the safe haven status of gold. Spot silver fell 0.1% at $25.58 per ounce, platinum edged 0.1% higher to $1,105.82, and palladium gained 0.1% at $1,571.23.
Spot gold was unchanged at $2,032.86 per ounce, as of 0201 GMT. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates dull non-yielding bullion's appeal. "The outlook of a weak U.S. currency and yields reignite the safe haven status of gold. Worries over the global economy and demand-supply outlook may also support the commodity in the near future," Hareesh added. Spot silver fell 0.1% at $25.58 per ounce, platinum edged 0.1% higher to $1,105.82, and palladium gained 0.1% at $1,571.23.
CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s CPI reading
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Investors are hoping April's CPI reading will show dipping prices. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Morning Bid: Inflation cloud obscures Fed peak
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
With markets edgy about the U.S. debt ceiling standoff and ongoing ripples from the March regional banking blow out, the running assumption is the Fed's campaign is over and disinflation underway. New York Fed chief John Williams said yesterday it's too soon to say the central bank is done and dusted. If consensus forecasts are correct, the April inflation readout later on Wednesday may well force the Fed to keep that equivocal line up for a bit longer. Futures markets show only a 15% chance of another Fed hike next month, with quarter point rate cut almost fully priced by September. Visibility is low in the fixed income market, however, due to the debt ceiling impasse.
Still, it was enough for traders to raise the chances of a September rate cut to near 80%, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch tracker of prices in the fed funds futures market. In fact, the October fed funds contract implied a policy rate of 4.84%, or nearly a full quarter point below the current effective rate of 5.08%. Among Wall Street analysts and economists, though, the case for a rate cut remains shaky. "I do not see in my baseline forecast any reason to cut interest rates this year." The central bank raised its fed funds rate last week by a quarter point, to 5.0-5.25%, its 10th increase since March, 2022.
Companies Bank of America Corp FollowTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked up on Tuesday, reversing a more than 2% drop earlier in the session, as markets weighed U.S. government's plans to refill the nation's emergency oil reserve and anticipated higher seasonal demand. Brent crude settled 43 cents, or 0.6% higher, at $77.44 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up 24 cents, or 0.3%, at $73.39. Biden administration plans to begin purchasing oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve helped cover speculative short positions, said Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho. A report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) pointing to higher seasonal demand and lower-than-expected output also supported prices. "We expect the seasonal rise in oil consumption and a drop in OPEC crude oil production to put some upward pressure on crude oil prices in the coming months," the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.
"We've made incredible progress" in taking action to lower overly high levels of inflation, but "if additional policy firming is appropriate, we'll do that," he said. The central bank also signaled that after just over a year of aggressive rate hikes, it may be done, or close to it, with the rate rises. I do not see in my baseline forecast any reason to cut interest rates this year," Williams said. Williams remains confident the Fed can achieve its objectives, adding "as always, I'll be monitoring the totality of the data and what it implies for the achievement of our goals. But for now, he said price pressures remain "too high," adding that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target.
Williams said price pressures remain "too high," and added that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. The central bank also signaled that after just over a year of aggressive rate hikes, it may be done, or close to it, with the rate rises. Williams also serves as vice chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which has been working aggressively to lower high levels of inflation. The Fed is eyeing an end to the rate-hike cycle as inflation pressures have eased a bit. He noted there have been signs of slowing price pressures but noted that core services inflation stripped of housing factors remains persistent.
John Williams, Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks at an event in New York, November 6, 2019. The committee removed a key phrase from the statement that had indicated additional rate hikes would be appropriate. "I do not see in my baseline forecast, any reason to cut interest rates this year," he said, adding that additional rate hikes would be possible if the data doesn't cooperate. The current problems in the banking industry and their impact will factor into Williams' policy outlook, he said. "I will be particularly focused on assessing the evolution of credit conditions and their effects on the outlook for growth, employment and inflation," Williams said.
Morning Bid: Showdown on the ceiling
  + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
With world markets still at an impasse on the extent of the economic slowdown and chance of recession, the U.S. debt ceiling impasse remains unresolved - and Tuesday's showdown at the White House is one of the few opportunities left to resolve it. Biden meets Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy for the first time since February. There are only six days this month when the House and the Senate are in session when Biden is in Washington. Longer-term Treasury yields remain under wraps, however, with 2-year yields hovering just under 4%. DEBT CEILINGBeyond the debt ceiling row, the picture of the wider economy remains equivocal.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew York Fed Pres. Williams: Full effects of rate increases will take timeNew York Fed President and CEO John Williams remarks on Fed policy, the impact of rate increases, and strategies for inflation.
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors looked to comments from Federal Reserve speakers and inflation data that could provide hints about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by around two basis points to 3.4976%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading over two basis points lower at 3.9888%. Fed officials including Fed Governor Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams are expected to give remarks on Tuesday. Investors will be scanning their comments for insights into the central bank's expectations for the U.S. economy and what that could mean for interest rate policy decisions.
S&P 500 futures are little changed Monday night as investors readied for key inflation reports due later in the week. S&P 500 futures inched down by 0.05%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%. The S&P 500 finished 0.05% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite ended with a gain of nearly 0.2%. Fox Corp. and Nikola are among companies set to report quarterly earnings before the bell, followed by Airbnb and Rivian after the market closes. Earnings season is beginning to wind down with more than 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 done reporting.
Today is officially known as “Star Wars Day,” when the famous movie franchise and its many TV spinoffs are celebrated. Follow the official “Star Wars” Twitter accountThis is where to find all things “Star Wars” related, from news to celebrations. And take this quick 10-question quiz to find the right Star Wars film to watch this May the 4th! https://t.co/UfeqFgKvkt pic.twitter.com/gFlqvvsD7y — Star Wars (@starwars) May 3, 2023Watch the films and showsThe film franchise has a dozen movies to choose from (if you include the animated 2008 offering “The Clone Wars”), which will keep you plenty busy should you so choose to celebrate this day. So today you can toast Fisher and enjoy the memories of her over the years “a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.”
LONDON, April 21 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Friday it had appointed John Williamson, currently a non-executive director, as interim chairman from the end of April, when current Chair Gay Huey Evans steps down. Williamson's appointment comes as the world's largest and oldest metals forum grapples with slumping nickel volumes after the chaos in March 2022 when the LME suspended nickel trading for more than a week. Metal industry sources are surprised that Williamson's appointment is on an interim basis, which they say creates uncertainty during a tumultuous time. The LME declined to comment on why the appointment was on an interim basis. A lawsuit brought by Elliott Associates and Jane Street Global Trading against the LME for cancelling nickel trades will be heard in a London court on June 20-22.
New York Fed President John Williams said he expected inflation to decline to around 3.5% this year. Photo: Carlo Allegri/REUTERSA top Federal Reserve official said the central bank had more work ahead to bring down inflation, suggesting another interest-rate increase would be warranted at the Fed’s meeting in two weeks. “Inflation is still too high, and we will use our monetary policy tools to restore price stability,” said New York Fed President John Williams in a speech Wednesday night to a group of financial industry professionals in Manhattan.
Gold prices ease with central bank rate moves in focus
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices inched down on Thursday, after hitting a more than two-week low in the previous session, as investors grappled with the likelihood of more interest rate hikes by central banks to contain inflationary pressures. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,992.23 per ounce, as of 0332 GMT. "Despite gold's break below $1,980 yesterday, investors were quick to snap up the quick discount and drive spot prices back above this key support level ... Rate hikes reduce non-interest bearing gold's appeal as it raises the metal's opportunity cost. "A slew of hawkish comments from the Fed, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank combined with stubbornly high U.K. inflation has investors second-guessing their calls for rate cuts this year," Simpson added.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.16% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was up 0.07%. China's blue-chip CSI 300 Index (.CSI300) was down 0.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) eased 0.22%. Traders are bracing for meetings from central banks in the next few weeks as easing worries over the banking sector brings inflation and monetary policy back into focus. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.039%, with the euro up 0.04% to $1.0958. The yen weakened 0.08% to 134.83 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2432, down 0.05% on the day.
Fed emergency lending rises slightly in latest week
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
In the details of the data, the Fed said it extended $69.9 billion as of Wednesday via its discount window lending facility, versus $67.6 billion on April 12. Collectively, the shifts in emergency lending and other factors allowed the total size of the Fed's balance sheet to go down, hitting $8.643 trillion on April 19 from $8.665 trillion on April 12. Fed officials have underscored for some time now that they see the troubles that have driven the surge in emergency lending as limited to a few institutions. Thus far, they have said they see no reason to be worried about the ongoing high levels of emergency lending. But he also said it's not a bad thing for banks to use the discount window when they need liquidity.
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