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The housing market is unlikely to recover for several years and affordability won't get any better unless a recession hits, according to Bank of America economists. "The US housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon," Bank of America economist Michael Gapen and others said in a Monday note. In some respects, the housing market is a victim of its own success: Buyers swarmed in after Covid hit, taking advantage of mortgage rates around 3% and even less. Bank of America does expect some moderation in regard to prices, but again not for a few years. As things stand, the NAR's housing affordability index , after rising earlier this year, tumbled in May to its lowest level since November 2023.
Persons: Michael Gapen, Gapen, Covid Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, NAR
Michelle Bowman, governor of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during the Exchequer Club meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday the time is not right yet to start lowering interest rates, adding she would be open to raising if inflation doesn't pull back. "However, we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate." The Commerce Department on Friday will release its reading on the May personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect a 12-month inflation rate of 2.6% on both the all-items and core, which excludes food and energy prices.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Dow Jones, Mary Daly, Daly, CNBC's Deirdre Bosa, it's, Austan Goolsbee, CNBC's Steve Liesman Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Commerce Department, European Central Bank, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed Locations: Washington , DC, London, U.S, San Francisco
Burgeoning debt and deficits are threatening to make the next recession deeper while tying the hands of policymakers, according to two leading economists. The Congressional Budget Office this week revised its estimates to paint an even bleaker version of the U.S. financial picture. Teetering on trouble In fact, Rosenberg thinks the economy already is nearing or in the early stages of recession. "With budget deficits historically high relative to an economy operating at full employment, the government could be facing double-digit budget deficits when the next downturn hits." While equity markets have largely shrugged off worries over the fiscal situation, LaVorgna and Rosenberg both insist that bond investors should pay attention.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Teetering, Janet Yellen, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, LaVorgna Organizations: Congressional, Rosenberg Research, Federal, CBO, CNBC, White House, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The shift presents challenges for tech-focused ETFs and could affect their holdings of heavyweights like Nvidia , Microsoft , and Apple . Markets are pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, while Fed officials have indicated only one rate cut is likely. Nvidia takes the crown Nvidia on Tuesday surpassed Microsoft to become the world's most valuable public company with a market cap of $3.34 trillion. Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler signaled the likelihood of a rate cut later this year.
Persons: Dave Calhoun, Josh Hawley, Calhoun, Hawley, Paul Ashworth, Susan Collins, Collins, Adriana Kugler, " Kugler, Jeff Cox, Cox, Claudia Sahm, , Kif Leswing, Bob Pisani, Leslie Josephs, Alex Harring, Samantha Subin, Spencer Kimball, Yun Li, Lim Hui Jie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Federal Reserve, Fed, Boeing, Federal, North, Capital Economics, Boston Federal, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: New York City, U.S, North America, Boston, Lawrence , Massachusetts, Washington
Economist Claudia Sahm has shown that when the unemployment rate's three-month average is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, the economy is in recession. "My baseline is not recession," Sahm said. "The worst possible outcome at this point is for the Fed to cause an unnecessary recession," she added. That's the highest the Sahm reading has been on an ascending basis since the early days of the Covid pandemic. The value essentially represents the percentage point difference from the three-month unemployment rate average compared to its 12-month low, which in this case is 3.5%.
Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, I'm, Jerome Powell Organizations: Exchange, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Committee
With shelter inflation "sticky" at a 5.4% year over level, Gapen said it could be months before "greater confidence" is achieved. "We think the Fed is unlikely to achieve the confidence it needs to begin rate cuts until shelter inflation takes a step lower," he said. Monthly housing inflation readings in the PCE measure have been running at either 0.5% or 0.4% since March 2023. We don't target housing prices, for example," Powell said. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, a nonvoter on the FOMC this year, on Tuesday singled out the "long-term stubbornness of shelter inflation."
Persons: Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Patrick Harker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Commerce, Philadelphia Fed
May retail sales rise 0.1%, weaker than expected
  + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A worker assists with check-out at a Costco store in Teterboro, New Jersey, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. Retail spending was weaker than expected in May as consumers continued to wrestle with stubbornly higher levels of inflation. Sales rose just 0.1% on the month, one-tenth of a percentage point below the Dow Jones estimate, according to a Commerce Department report Tuesday that is adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 2.3%. The sales number was worse when excluding autos, with a decline of 0.1% against the estimate for a 0.2% increase.
Persons: Dow Jones, Patrick Harker Organizations: Costco, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Teterboro , New Jersey, US
CNBC Daily Open: Nasdaq record, Tesla future value?
  + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Alain Jocard | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. This valuation, however, wouldn't be based on Tesla's success as an electric vehicle manufacturer, but rather as a robotics company. While Musk didn't provide a specific timeframe for this claim, he also suggested Tesla could reach a $5 trillion to $7 trillion valuation as a robotaxi company. In 2020, Tesla's worth even surpassed the combined value of Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, GM, Ford and BMW.
Persons: Elon Musk, Porte, Alain Jocard, Elon, Tesla, Cathie Wood, Wood, CNBC's, Dan Ives, Chris Ailman, Ailman, CNBC's Michael Santoli, Jeff Cox, Michael Santoli, Jordan Novet, Katie Bartlett, Pia Singh, Riley de León, Spencer Kimball, Lisa Kailai Han, Brian Evans Organizations: SpaceX, Twitter, Porte de, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, GM, Ford, BMW, California State Teachers, Nvidia, & $ Locations: Paris, Tesla
Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading around 4.211% at 6:29 a.m. The 2-year Treasury note yield was down 1 basis point at 4.679%. U.S. Treasury yields fell again on Friday as data released this week pointed to easing inflation. Correction: A previous version misstated the magnitude of a decline in the 10-year Treasury note yield.
Persons: Henry Allen, — Jeff Cox Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Rabobank, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, US, University of Michigan
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday said the swelling national debt is manageable as long as it stays around where it is relative to the rest of the economy. In a CNBC interview, Yellen also noted that high interest rates are adding to the burden as the U.S. manages its massive $34.7 trillion debt load. "The way I look at it is that we should be looking at the real interest cost of the debt. The public share of the national debt as a share of GDP is running at about 97% but is expected to soon top 100% at current spending rates. "Americans are clearly very concerned about the cost of living, and dressing the high cost of living remains a top economic priority for the president," Yellen said at a luncheon with the Economic Club of New York.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, That's, Joe Biden's Organizations: CNBC, Congressional, Federal Reserve, Economic, of New Locations: U.S, of New York
Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell 0.2% in May
  + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A measure of wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May, adding another piece of evidence that inflation is pulling back. The producer price index, a gauge of prices that producers get for their goods and services in the open market, declined 0.2% for the month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the PPI was unchanged, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. From the wholesale perspective, the PPI was held back by a 0.8% decrease in final demand goods prices, which was the largest decline since October 2023. On the services side, fuels and lubricants retailing margins surged 12.2%, but that was offset in part by a 4.3% plunge in airline passenger services prices.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Stock, BLS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department
The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The monthly rate rose 0.3% in April while the annual rate was 3.3%. Though the top-line inflation numbers were lower for both the all-items and core measures, shelter inflation increased 0.4% on the month and was up 5.4% from a year ago. Housing-related numbers have been a sticking point in the Federal Reserve's inflation battle and make up a heavy share of the CPI weighting. Though the Fed doesn't use the CPI as its main inflation indicator, it still figures into the calculus.
Persons: Dow Jones, Price, Robert Frick, Joseph LaVorgna, FOMC Organizations: department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Treasury, Dow Jones, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, CPI, Nikko Securities, Commerce Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open: Apple shares pop, Musk drops OpenAI lawsuit
  + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Musk drops OpenAI suit Elon Musk dropped his lawsuit against OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman, which alleged breach of contract and fiduciary duty. Apple pops Apple 's shares rose to a record high a day after it announced its push into artificial intelligence. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. For more, CNBC's Jeff Cox explains there could be a huge impact from the consumer price index and the Fed meeting.
Persons: Paul Jacobson, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Siri, OpenAI, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, David Malpass, Dennis Lockhart, Jeff Cox, — CNBC's Lim Hui Jie, Lisa Kailai Han, Alex Harring, Spencer Kimball, Hayden Field, Samantha Subin, Ashley Capoot, Michael Wayland Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, General Motors, GM, OpenAI, Microsoft, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Brent, Bank, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, San Francisco
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during the conference celebrating the Centennial of the Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington D.C., United States on November 08, 2023. None of those numbers are dramatically different from the April readings, and still show inflation running well above the Fed's 2% target. Central bankers prefer the Commerce Department's measure of personal consumption expenditures prices, a broader measure that also accounts for changes in consumer behavior. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the CPI report at 8:30 a.m. The Fed meeting
Persons: Jerome Powell, Celal Gunes, Jonathan Pingle, Pingle, tinker, Jack Janasiewicz, , Janasiewicz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, of Research, Statistics, Governors, Federal, System, Washington D.C, Getty, Anadolu, Federal Reserve, UBS, CPI, Investment, Labor Statistics Locations: Washington, United States, Anadolu
At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the first time it has breached that level since January 2022. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate decreased to 62.5%, down 0.2 percentage point. The survey of households used to compute the unemployment rate showed that the level of people who reported holding jobs fell by 408,000. A more encompassing unemployment figure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.4%. The household survey also showed that full-time workers declined by 625,000, while those holding part-time positions increased by 286,000.
Persons: Dow Jones, you've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Joe Raedle Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Getty Locations: U.S, Miami , Florida
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on June 03, 2024 in New York City. Beyond signaling a still-vibrant labor market, the data at the very least adds to the narrative that the Fed doesn't have to rush to lower interest rates. Even with the unemployment rate rising to 4% in May, the labor market appears vibrant. However, on the other side of the mandate, inflation is still running well above the Fed's target. Most gauges have prices rising annually at about a 3% rate, down significantly from the peaks of mid-2022 but still running hot.
Persons: I've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Labor Statistics Locations: New York City
Here's what to expect from Friday's big jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Investors will be looking to May's nonfarm payrolls report for more clarity on whether the Federal Reserve can ease up in its battle against inflation. "The jobs report for May is now particularly consequential," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. "A weaker reading [of less than 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4% or more] would be a final piece of evidence that the slowdown will continue. Citi expects that the report will show just 140,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate hitting 4% for the first time since January 2022. Markets currently are pegging the first rate cut to come in September, with one more on the way in December.
Persons: nonfarm, Dow Jones, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S, payrolls
Larock's experience comes at a time when, at least on the surface, the jobs market has continued to glide along. But worries are growing that the labor market is beginning to show cracks. Welcome to the good news-bad news labor market, where the collective experience is positive but not as much for individuals in particular groups. "But the bad news is that new entrants to the labor market are faring less well," Peng added. While Peng characterized the jobs market as "strong overall," she said there are "soft soft spots" that are particularly hitting "new entrants to the workforce."
Persons: Samantha McCloud, Victoria Garcia, Jessel Rincon, Irfan Khan, Julianna Larock, Larock, Jacqueline Novogratz, Michael Novogratz, Julianna LaRock, nonfarm, It's, Goldman Sachs, Elsie Peng, Peng, Molly Huang, it's, Huang, David Pakula, Cory Stahle, Joanie Bily, Bily, grads, Ethan Mariano, Mariano Organizations: Temple City High School, Los Angeles Times, Investment Partners, University of Delaware, Fordham, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman, Penn State University, Vanguard, Gettysburg College, American University, State Department Locations: Temple City , CA, Wilmington , Delaware, New York City, New York, Horsham , Pennsylvania, U.S, Washington ,, Hazleton , Pennsylvania
Private job creation slowed more than expected in May, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that signals further sluggishness in the labor market. A number of sectors saw job losses on the month. The report comes two days ahead of the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The ADP report showing private payroll growth of 188,000 in April overshot the BLS count of 167,000. Correction: The ADP figure for May was the lowest monthly level since January.
Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson, nonfarm Organizations: Dow, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Wall Locations: Central, San Francisco , California, Trade
Job openings fell more than forecast in April, signaling a potential weakening in the labor market that could provide the Federal Reserve with more impetus to start lowering interest rates. The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday showed that the level of employment vacancies slipped to 8.06 million for the month, down by nearly 300,000 from March and close to 19% lower than a year ago. The ratio of job openings to available workers edged down from 1.2 to 1, after being around 2 to 1 when openings peaked above 12 million in March 2022. Fed officials watch the JOLTS report closely for signs of labor market slack as they look for direction on monetary policy. While job openings slid, hires moved slightly higher as did separations and quits, a sign of worker confidence in the ability to move to other positions.
Persons: Dow Jones, nonfarm Organizations: Reserve, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bad economic news so far has been mostly positive for the stock market, as investors worry over whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. The greenback often rises on bad news as investors seek the safety of cash and equivalents, while the stock market gains on good news. .SPX .DXY line 2024-04-01 Stocks vs. the dollar At the same time, economic data has generally deteriorated, or at least not met Wall Street forecasts. For the most part, bad economic news likely could help convince the Fed that the time is right to start lowering interest rates. Based on the prior two months, the unemployment rate would have to rise to 4.3% in May for that to happen.
Persons: Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, Dow Jones, Claudia Sahm, BofA Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors
Inflation rose about as expected in April, with markets on edge over when interest rates might start coming down, according to a measure released Friday that is followed closely by the Federal Reserve. Including the volatile food and energy category, PCE inflation was at 2.7% on an annual basis and 0.3% from a month ago. Goods prices rose 0.2% while services saw a 0.3% increase, continuing a normalization trend for an economy in which services and consumption provide much of the fuel. Personal income increased 0.3% on the month, matching the estimate, while spending rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate and off March's downwardly revised 0.7%. "The PCE Price Index didn't show much progress on inflation, but it didn't show any backsliding, either.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dan North, Jerome, Powell, I'm, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, John Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Labor Department, The Commerce Department, North America, Allianz Trade, Treasury, New York Fed
Inflation is taking baby steps towards coming back to where policymakers want it, with a report due Friday expected to show more of that creeping progress. Core inflation is expected to have slowed to 0.2%, which would represent at least some further progress toward easing price pressure on weary consumers. "That said, getting to the Fed's 2% target is apt to be a bumpy landing." However, policymakers' expectations that housing inflation will cool this year have been largely thwarted, throwing another wrinkle into the debate. CPI inflation ran at 3.4% for the all-items measure in April and 3.6% for core, well above the Fed's target.
Persons: Dow Jones, Carol Schleif Organizations: Dow, BMO Family Office, Labor Locations: PCE
NEW YORK — New York Federal Reserve President John Williams on Thursday said inflation is still too high but he is confident it will start decelerating later this year. With markets on edge over the direction of monetary policy, Williams offered no clear signs on where he is leaning as far as possible interest rate cuts go. Williams called policy "well-positioned" and "restrictive" and said it is helping the Fed achieve its goals. But higher than expected inflation readings have altered that landscape dramatically, and current pricing is pointing to just one decrease, probably in November. Williams said he expects PCE inflation to drift down to 2.5% this year on its way back to 2% in 2026.
Persons: John Williams, Williams, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, York Federal, Economic, of New, Fed, Commerce Department Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, York, of New York
A Goldman Sachs executive and finance industry veteran will take over as the new president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve. The central bank district announced Wednesday that Beth M. Hammack, 52, will take over when Loretta Mester steps down June 30. In the interim, Cleveland Fed First Vice President Mark S. Meder will serve as the president. As the Fed contemplates its next moves with monetary policy, the Cleveland president plays an important role this year as a voter on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Hammack comes to the Cleveland Fed after serving with Goldman Sachs since 1993 in multiple roles, having been a partner since 2010 after being named managing director in 2003.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Beth M, Loretta Mester, Hammack, Mark S, Beth, Heidi Gartland Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Fourth, Cleveland, Market, Stanford University, University Hospitals
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