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May 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The onshore yuan traded weaker than 7.00 per dollar for the eighth straight day, as markets position for another hike in U.S. interest rates and potential policy easing from Beijing. The dollar nudged 141 yen before closing slightly lower on the day, with traders' hawkish Fed forecasts relative to the Bank of Japan's policy outlook again keeping dollar bulls on the front foot. At the time of writing, U.S. stock futures pointed to gains on Wall Street of up to 0.5% on Tuesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

May 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. It could be a double-edged sword for Asian markets, if not on Monday than in the days and weeks ahead. The economy's post-pandemic lockdown recovery has been weaker than expected, to put it mildly, and inflationary pressures are evaporating. Japanese equity markets open on Monday near the 33-year highs reached last week, while Chinese stocks are languishing near six-month lows. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

But as some argue, in its quest to avoid another taper tantrum, the Fed delayed that two-pronged tightening too long, which has partly contributed to the stickiness of inflation today. This lengthy buildup may have averted another taper tantrum, but tied the Fed's hands on raising rates even as inflation was roaring back. Markets thought this not only meant the Fed would soon "taper" its bond purchases, but also raise interest rates. The Fed and markets have learned their lessons from the taper tantrum. Maybe the taper tantrum illustrates that it wasn't as planned and consistent as it should have been," he said.

May 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The People's Bank of China is expected to keep key lending rates on hold on Monday, as traders in Asia digest the implications of the G7's stance on China and the tense and fluid situation in Washington regarding the U.S. debt ceiling standoff. In their joint communique on Saturday, G7 leaders said they are looking to "de-risk, not decouple" economic engagement with China. Wider market sentiment on Monday could be set by the mood music in Washington around the debt ceiling. On the other hand, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated that June 1 remains a "hard deadline" for raising the debt ceiling.

"A longer timeframe shows that foreign investors have been net sellers of Japanese equities by a considerable margin. We think long-term investors remain lightly positioned," they wrote last week in a note "Upside risks in Japanese equities". Non-residents sold nearly $4 billion of Chinese stocks in April, according to the Institute of International Finance, the first outflow in six months. Bank of America's monthly fund manager surveys show that "long" Chinese equities was the most crowded global trade in January. That has been scaled back significantly and investors have reduced their net overweight position in Chinese stocks, but they are still comfortably net overweight.

Japan takes center stage on Friday, with the April consumer price inflation report grabbing the data spotlight and the Group of Seven leaders summit in Hiroshima stealing the global political and economic limelight. The broad Topix index hit that milestone this week, and the Nikkei 225 index came within 0.5% of reaching it on Thursday. As Phil Suttle, a former World Bank economist, wrote on Thursday: "Japan is back!" G7 leaders begin a three-day summit in Hiroshima on Friday, with world market attention focused most on what they say about China. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- Japan CPI inflation (April)- G7 leaders summit (Japan)- Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaksBy Jamie McGeever; editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Asian markets, particularly China's, will be hoping this sparks a recovery from Wednesday's decline following yet another batch of sub-par Chinese economic indicators. The Chinese yuan fell below 7.00 per dollar for the first time in nearly six months and with GDP forecasts being slashed, analysts reckon the yuan could be poised for more weakness. Citi's Chinese economic surprises index had its biggest fall in two years and one of the steepest on record. Economists polled by Reuters expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.5% and net new job growth to slow to 25,000. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

A Reuters poll of economists estimates annualized GDP growth of 0.7% in the first three months of 2023, rising sharply from just 0.1% October-December and the fastest since the 4.7% of April-June 2022. If indicators from Japan have been underwhelming, they've been alarming from China, the world's second-largest economy. Another batch of Chinese economic data fell short of expectations on Tuesday, slamming Chinese financial assets and cementing the view that Beijing will have to inject fiscal or policy stimulus into the sputtering economy. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year demand for Chinese debt has evaporated, casting extra doubt over the yuan's ability to gain reserve currency status. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- Japan GDP (Q1)- China house prices (April)- Australia wage growth (Q1)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

ORLANDO, Florida, May 15 (Reuters) - China's yuan faces significant long-term obstacles to becoming a global reserve currency of any great import, but the biggest challenge in the near term is the fact that nobody wants to buy Chinese bonds. Reuters ImageReuters Image"It is very hard to create a reserve currency, without attractive reserve assets. Exante Data's figures show foreign investors bought a net $558 billion of Chinese bonds between 2010 and 2021. But in a pool of $12 trillion global reserves, of which nearly 80% is denominated in dollars and euros, these are very small numbers. Reuters ImageRESERVE STATUSAny currency that has designs on attaining international reserve status must meet several criteria and fulfill several roles.

May 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. If the April snapshots of retail sales, urban investment and industrial production come in weaker than expected - and consensus forecasts are for solid rebounds from the month before - the China bears and doomsters will be in the ascendancy. Broader market sentiment may be reasonably well supported after Wall Street eked out modest gains on Monday despite alarming slump in a key index of U.S. factory activity and another day of deadlock in the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Australia consumer sentiment (May)- China investment, retail sales, industrial output (April)- Euro zone GDP (Q1, flash estimate)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data show that speculators have built up record short positions in two- and five-year Treasuries futures, and a record net short aggregate position when 10-year bonds are added to the mix. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. The latest CFTC data show that in the week through May 9 speculative accounts grew their net short position in two-year Treasuries by 116,409 contracts - the biggest increase in over two years - to a new record 749,885 contracts. Funds also increased their net short position in five-year bonds for a third straight week by a slender 412 contracts, to a fresh record 910,642, while they trimmed their net short position in the 10-year space slightly to 731,698 contracts. Funds were ultra-bearish the five-year and 10-year bonds in late 2018, but nowhere near as bearish on two-year Treasuries.

Major economic data from China and Japan, and a central bank rate decision from the Philippines could be the main regional drivers for Asian markets this week, with investors growing increasingly nervous about the U.S. and global macro outlook. These were some of the issues discussed at the three-day meeting of G7 finance leaders that concluded on Saturday. The MSCI World index fell 0.5% - not a big deal, perhaps, but the second weekly decline in a row and the steepest since the U.S. banking crisis blow-up two months ago. Japan's first-quarter GDP figures will be released on Wednesday, and perhaps more importantly, the latest inflation numbers are out on Friday. Core inflation is far higher than the Bank of Japan would like and is expected to have re-accelerated to 3.4% in April.

Wall Street and world markets cheered below-consensus U.S. inflation on Wednesday, but they may not be so accommodating if Chinese inflation on Thursday also undershoots forecasts. On the other hand, inflation in China is already extremely low and a sign that the world's second largest economy is struggling to generate demand, momentum and sufficient growth. Charlie Bilello, chief market analyst at Creative Planning, on Wednesday tweeted a list of 34 countries' annual consumer price inflation rates. China's 0.7%, the lowest since September 2021, was comfortably the weakest of them all, by almost two full percentage points. Producer price inflation figures will also be released on Thursday.

May 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Full-year Japanese earnings on tap Wednesday include Softbank (9434.T), Toyota (7203.T) and Panasonic (6752.T). It rose 1% on Tuesday and only four of the last 20 trading sessions have been down days. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has repeatedly warned that the X-Date could be June 1, meaning there is barely three weeks between now and a potential U.S. default. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

May 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. If the mood in Asian markets on Tuesday reflects the broader global mood on Monday, there's every reason to expect an increase in risk appetite and risk assets, despite a higher dollar and Treasury yields. But there was no obvious sign of a credit crunch, which fits with recent weekly bank deposit flow and lending data too. Several positioning and sentiment indicators suggest investors are the most gloomy on stocks - especially Wall Street - than they have been in years, even decades. Asian markets appear to be looking at the U.S. banking and debt issues with a 'glass half-full' mentality.

May 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The regional economic data calendar on Monday is light, with the final reading of Japanese purchasing managers index and Taiwanese trade for April the main releases. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, for one, is very optimistic: "It's possible that this time is really different. Technology giant JD.com (9618.HK) and China's largest chip foundry Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (0981.HK) both release first-quarter earnings on Thursday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Lending standards, which were already at levels consistent with past recessions, according to several indicators in the most recent 'SLOOS' and NFIB surveys, will only tighten further. Although tighter credit conditions will weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation, recession can still be avoided. A separate NFIB banking survey published this week shows small business owners are not hitting the panic button just yet, but concern is growing. "Small business owners are, not surprisingly, concerned about the stability of the banking system. A strong small business banking system is essential for small business owners to operate and grow their business," Holly Wade, executive director of NFIB's Research Center said.

May 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. An investor going long mega U.S. tech shares and short regional banks on January 1 would be doing well today. Yet Asian markets, stocks at least, have been fairly unruffled. If Asian markets get a steer from local events on Thursday, it will most likely come from China's services PMI. The bar for beating the previous month is high - the last time services sector activity in China grew faster than March was almost three years ago.

The June hike is now off the table completely, and traders now see a 15% chance of the Fed not raising at all this week or in June. This is significant for the June 14 policy decision because the Fed also releases its new Summary of Economic Projections that day. The deposit flight may have stopped but Fed officials will be acutely aware of the negative feedback loop on the economy, given the deep-rooted linkages between small banks and businesses. The March survey of small businesses by the National Federation of Independent Business showed multiple signs of weakness, and even more attention than usual will fall on the next Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Will the Fed be raising rates on June 14 if this is still a live issue?

May 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The Fed on Wednesday delivered what markets are convinced will be the last rate hike of the cycle, bond yields and the dollar fell, yet investors are rattled. But the tone will be set by the fallout from the Fed. They rose as much as 3% in early trade, recouping some of the previous two days' heavy losses. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ending April 25 show that speculators increased their net short position in 5-year Treasuries by almost 115,000 contracts to a record 869,288 contracts. Funds also increased their net short position in 10-year bonds for a fourth straight week, by just over 60,000 contracts to 740,261. Reuters ImageReuters ImageAt the same time, funds trimmed their net short position in two-year Treasuries futures by 28,607 contracts, the biggest reduction in a month. They have increased their net short position in the five-year space by more than 200,000 contracts, and by almost 400,000 contracts in the 10-year space. Meanwhile, they have trimmed their two-year bond net short position by a negligible 4,338 contracts.

May 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The U.S. regional banking index tanked 5.5% on Tuesday, its biggest fall since the depths of the crisis in mid-March. This may play into Malaysian policymakers' thinking as they prepare to deliver their latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. But that's what Asian markets will be waking up to on Thursday. Before that on Wednesday they have the Malaysian rate decision, services PMI data from Australia and India, and South Korean FX reserves to offer local direction.

May 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The White House said First Republic was "severely mismanaged," the takeover protects depositors and the current banking turmoil bears no resemblance to 2008. Anyone who went long mega tech and short regional U.S. banks on Dec. 31 will be sitting pretty today. Expectations for further tightening this year are far from certain, and are gradually being pushed into the third quarter. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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