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If the S&P 500 can avoid a pullback, it could make a push toward its all-time high. Investors who weren't ready for the remarkable stock market rally of the last three months may not have completely missed out yet, according to several strategists Insider recently spoke with. While some top investing minds think this market rally isn't trustworthy, others are confident that the path of least resistance for US stocks is higher. He believes the S&P 500 is more likely to hit new highs in early 2024 than retest its Fall low of about 3,500. The S&P 500 is trading at roughly 19.2x forward earnings, he said, adding that equal-weighted funds have a forward earning ratio of about 15.5x.
Persons: Brad Bernstein, we've, I've, Bernstein, Jason Draho, Bernstein's, Draho, Jack Caffrey, Caffrey, Michael Sheldon, chartmaster David Keller, Keller, who's, David Keller, StockCharts.com, Brian Belski, Sheldon, Belski, that's Organizations: Federal Reserve, UBS Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, JPMorgan Asset Management, Fed, RDM Financial, BMO Capital Markets, BMO Capital Locations: US
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's no 'single best idea' when comparing the Indian and Chinese markets, says JPMorganAlexander Treves of JPMorgan Asset Management discusses the pros and cons of investing in the two markets.
Persons: Alexander Treves Organizations: Asset Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will pause rate hikes in June but won't start easing this year, says JPMorgan's Phil CamporealePhil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, what it means for the market outlook, and more.
Persons: Phil Camporeale Phil Camporeale Organizations: JPMorgan, Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMassive shift in supply chain issues from U.S.-China tensions is unlikely, says JPMorganKerry Craig of JPMorgan Asset Management says the United States is, in some ways, "a little bit out of sync with what the rest of the world wants."
Investors are still jumping into the fund in 2023, pushing its total assets to about $26 billion. Through May 11, the fund has a total return of just 3.4% year to date, underperforming the S & P 500. Meanwhile, its sister fund, JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) , has been a big winner for investors. That fund has returned more than 17% this year, and its 30-day SEC yield is nearly 14%, as Nasdaq stocks have outperformed the S & P 500. "More volatile means you're going to get more potential upside by selling a farther-out-of-the-money call, and more income," Reiner said.
New York CNN —Dire warnings about the economic chaos and catastrophe that will ensue if the US debt ceiling isn’t lifted soon abound. The debt ceiling crisis of 2011 caused Standard and Poor’s to downgrade US debt for the first time in history. Schwenkler says to expect “a lot more volatility” if debt ceiling issues don’t appear resolved by the last week of the month. By contrast, recovery from a debt-default crisis would likely start the day Congress, belatedly, suspended the debt ceiling,” he added. “A misstep over the debt ceiling would subject businesses and consumers to an economic shockwave,” he added.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailModerately higher persistent inflation is good for investors, says JPMorgan's Karen WardKaren Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview key inflation data this week, and the potential impact on markets.
Here are 10 ways to protect against losses and volatility in this long-lasting bear market. "It went beyond dodging a bullet," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said of first quarter earnings results in a late April interview with Insider. Weaker earnings raise valuation concernsBut some investors aren't impressed by Q1 earnings — at least not enough to get bullish. Besides weaker earnings growth and lofty valuations, another risk for stocks is that upcoming quarterly results will miss higher expectations in a shaky economy. "We're still looking at fairly high-single-digit earnings growth for the next couple of quarters overall," Sosnick said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed's threshold for rate cuts still looks 'incredibly high,' JPMorgan saysTai Hui of JPMorgan Asset Management says a mild U.S. recession may not be sufficient for the U.S. Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe impact of higher rates will be felt in the quarters ahead, says JPMorgan's Gabriela SantosGabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the market, this week's GDP report and earnings results, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe could potentially be headed for a stagflation scenario, warns JPMorgan's Oksana AronovOksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the potential for a stagflation scenario and what investors can do now to prepare.
JPMorgan Asset Management's Jonathan Liang said Wednesday on Bloomberg that smaller banks now face an increased risk of credit losses because of their heightened exposure to the commercial real estate debt. And Goldman Sachs' global head of real estate client solutions, Jeffery Fine, recently said the commercial real estate market is in the middle of a "perfect storm" of higher rates, tight credit, and fast-maturing debt. The Goldman strategist said securing commercial real estate loans now is "almost impossible" since financing has just about shut down. What's your outlook for the commercial real estate sector in the next 6 months? This real estate investor commands a 311-unit portfolio.
City workers in Paternoster Square, where the headquarters of the London Stock Exchange is based, in the City of London, UK, on Thursday, March 2, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesU.K. inflation unexpectedly remained in double-digits in March as households continued to grapple with soaring food and energy bills. The consumer price index rose by an annual 10.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics, above a consensus projection of 9.8% in a Reuters poll of economists. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation was 0.8%, above a Reuters consensus of 0.5% and down from the 1.1% of February. U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said the Wednesday figures reaffirm why the government must continue efforts to drive down inflation.
Regional banks' troubles aren't over and remain "an area of concern", JPMorgan Asset Management's Jonathan Liang said. They are facing increased risks of credit losses in the commercial-property sector, which may come under stress, he said. And so we think that in the coming year or two, there's going to be growing distress in this space, and that will also potentially amount to credit losses for those US regional banks," he added. Many experts have warned the US commercial real-estate sector could face problems as high borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions following the recent banking turmoil complicate matters for big property owners as they seek to refinance loans. Nearly $450 billion in commercial real-estate debt is due to mature in 2023 - meaning a final payment on those loans are due, per data cited from Trepp by JPMorgan.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Oksana Aronov advises investors to 'preserve optionality'Oksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss headwinds to a Fed policy pivot and inflation.
Instead, they've been propelled by large caps and growth stocks, specifically tech. If not for a small number of mega-cap growth stocks, the S&P 500 wouldn't be staying afloat. Last year investors learned the hard way that narrow markets are dangerous, as tech stocks tumbled during the market selloff. "Breadth has been exceptionally weak as large-cap growth stocks hold up the major averages," Wilson wrote in a late March note. Outside of tech, Lebovitz highlighted traditional defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities.
JPMorgan Asset Management CIO says markets are headed for a "feel good period" before an economic slowdown. Investors should not lean into the fleeting rally next quarter amid a looming recession, JPMorgan's Bob Michele says. "If we've been taught anything this past month, you may see it coming or you may not." "Having been an investor through the financial crisis, and [having looked at] that seminal moment when Bear Stearns and JPMorgan combined...The next quarter was great for markets. "If we've been taught anything this past month, you may see it coming or you may not.
It's part of an effort to address the country's labor shortage, Canada's immigration minister said. The US could solve its labor shortage too, experts told Insider, but Biden would have to be bolder. President Joe Biden's current course of action could mean that the labor shortage in the US is never really solved. Biden is replacing Trump-like anti-immigration policies with his ownThat's a major reason why the persisting labor shortage will likely never resolve. It's in direct opposition to the kind of policy changes that Peri said the US needs to make to address the labor shortage.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe banking crisis has heightened the potential slowdown in credit growth: JPMorgan's Meera PanditSylvia Jablonski, CEO and chief investment officer of Defiance ETFs, and Meera Pandit, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss their thoughts on the rate hike trajectory, tightened lending standards, and more.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market will probably probe any signs of weakness, JPMorgan saysKerry Craig of JPMorgan Asset Management discusses German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's verbal assurances on Deutsche Bank and stock market jitters on the banking sector.
Between fighting inflation or the bank crisis, the Federal Reserve leaned toward the former. Wednesday's move comes despite the bank crisis, which previously led investors to price in a series of Fed rate cuts starting this summer. Indeed, Wall Street has started pointing to the facts on the ground when it comes to financial conditions. The banks are still tightening credit conditions and … non-bank lenders are as well," he told Bloomberg TV hours before the Fed meeting. Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says he is "very, very skeptical" of investing in bank stocks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis Fed still has a bias toward hiking but I'm not sure it's necessary, says JPM's PanditJPMorgan Asset Management's Meera Pandit joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss today's Fed rate hike and how it could impact the markets down the road.
Meanwhile, markets are still reeling from the SVB fiasco, but there's a simpler reason why the stock market is going to be trading flat for the foreseeable future. Banking turmoil aside, the stock market doesn't have much momentum as long as investors are getting much higher yields on risk-free assets. Even before Silicon Valley Bank crashed, investors were feeling the pain of a volatile stock market. What's your prediction for the stock market through the first half of this year? Zurich-listed shares of Credit Suisse are down more than 58% early Monday.
Bank rescues ease crisis fears, investors still wary
  + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
COMMENTS:KERRY CRAIG, SENIOR STRATEGIST, JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT"It has been a week of ups and downs for the equity market this week. Then they will take it away gradually and the bank will play out a slow death." ZHIKAI CHEN, HEAD OF ASIA EQUTIES, BNP PARIBAS ASSET MANAGEMENT"The $30 billion deposit injection into First Republic overnight was novel and creative. Its new facility taking eligible securities at par removes the mark to market spiral risk to meet deposits. That said, markets are now suggesting rates hikes may be nearing an end, while inflation continues to rollover."
The Fed needs to stop raising interest rates now, says David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management. Step one: don't hike interest rates any more. "You just pause on interest rates and you say that we're making good progress on inflation," he said. "What you need to do in the long run is have a very steady level of interest rates," he said. He explained that interest rates do a bad job controlling demand and end up creating bubbles and economic problems.
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