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London CNN —The outlook for the global economy is brightening, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday as it upgraded its growth forecast for 2024. It expects global growth in gross domestic product — a key measure of economic activity — to pick up slightly to 3.2% next year. Despite the IMF’s upgrades, its projections for global growth for 2024 and 2025 are below the annual average of 3.8% clocked up over the first two decades of this century. The longer and costlier journeys have raised fears of a renewed rise in global inflation. An escalation in the Israel-Hamas war into a wider conflict in the Middle East would threaten global growth, the fund added.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Valerie Plesch Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Hamas Locations: Ukraine, Red, United States, India, Washington , DC, Getty Images Iran, Israel
Global inflation is expected to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and to 4.4% in 2025. “The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. That is not to say the global economy is without challenges. It also raises concerns about a revival of global inflation pressures as importers face surging shipping costs,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon. “For now, we don’t expect the situation in the Red Sea to substantially alter the outlook for global inflation and global monetary policy this year,” she added.
Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, , Lydia Boussour, Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Eric LeCompte, LeCompte Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, . News, USA Locations: U.S, China, , Ukraine, Iranian, Suez, EY, India, Russia, East, Central Asia, Saudi Arabia, , Brazil
LONDON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist has advised the U.K. government to avoid further tax cuts amid expectations Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s battered administration will do just that to win over voters in an election year. “In that context, we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now,” Gourinchas said. Hunt is focusing on longer-term projections, noting that the IMF expects growth to strengthen over the next few years. “It is too early to know whether further reductions in tax will be affordable in the budget, but we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth,” he said. Concerns about responsible fiscal policies are especially sensitive for Sunak and Hunt as they came to power after their predecessors were widely criticized for announcing millions of pounds in tax cuts without saying how they would be paid for.
Persons: Rishi Sunak’s, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Jeremy Hunt, Jan, Gourinchas, , ” Gourinchas, Hunt, Organizations: Monetary Fund’s, National Health Service, IMF, Treasury, Conservative Party Locations: Britain
Battle against inflation is being won, IMF chief economist says
  + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBattle against inflation is being won, IMF chief economist saysPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, discusses the group's upgrade to its global growth forecast.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: IMF, International Monetary Fund
Commercial mortgage borrowing will rise 29% this year, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates. AdvertisementCommercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is forecast to surge 29% from last year's estimated total of $444 billion, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates. "2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade," MBA Head of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell said in the report. AdvertisementTighter monetary policy since 2022 has pushed up borrowing costs across the commercial real estate market, and resulted in stricter lending standards among mortgage originators. Raichura expects prices to drop off another 10% this year, while a December outlook from NBER outlined that total commercial real estate losses could amount to $160 billion.
Persons: , Jamie Woodwell, Kiran Raichura, Woodwell Organizations: Mortgage, Association, Service, Real, Federal Reserve
In a study published Monday, researchers at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab sought to quantify the question of not just will AI automate human jobs, but when this could happen. Researchers ended up finding that a vast majority of jobs previously identified as vulnerable to AI are not economically beneficial for employers to automate at this time. While this could change over time, the overall findings suggest that job disruption from AI will likely unfurl at a gradual pace. This could mean that policymakers, employers and even workers can start best preparing and adapting for these coming changes now. “[The study] gives us this ability to start being a little more quantitative of how rapidly we expect worker displacement to happen,” Thompson said.
Persons: ” Neil Thompson, it’s, ” Thompson, , Thompson, Kristalina Georgieva, Organizations: CNN, MIT’s Computer, Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science, International Monetary Fund, MIT
Commercial real estate prices are in the midst of one of the biggest drops in the past half-century, the IMF said. AdvertisementUS commercial real estate prices are enduring one of the sharpest drop-offs in the last half-century, easily topping losses seen in previous rate-hike cycles, the International Monetary Fund said. Since the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in March 2022, US commercial property prices have slumped by over 11%, the agency outlined in a blog post. "Some of the earlier rate hikes, though, such as in 2004-06, were subsequently followed by a recession during which commercial property prices recorded notable declines as demand fell." In one worst-case scenario, that could as much as $1 trillion in commercial real estate equity, according to Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick.
Persons: , Andrea Deghi, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Federal, International Monetary, IMF
The job is not yet done,” François Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of France’s central bank, said this week in Davos. Those “upside risks to inflation” include supply chain fragmentation, trade protectionism, climate shocks and armed conflicts, according to Gopinath. As soon as central banks start lowering interest rates “people feel better, they start spending more,” she said. Now the bank has to keep interest rates high “for as long as necessary” to put inflation firmly on the path back to 2%, she added. Meanwhile, container shipping costs along many of the world’s busiest trade routes have doubled — and in some cases tripled — since the middle of December, according to data from London-based shipping consultancy Drewry.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, , “ It’s, Galhau, Gita Gopinath, Francois Villeroy de, Stefan Wermuth, Gopinath, Mary Callahan Erdoes, Christine Lagarde, , Joe Biden, Vincent Clerc, CNN’s Richard Quest, Tobias Meyer, ” Robert North Organizations: London CNN, UBS, Economic, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, Getty, JPMorgan, Central Bank, IMF, Oxford University, Drewry, Oxford Economics, Maersk, DHL Locations: Iran, Africa, Davos, Switzerland, Red, United States, Europe, United Kingdom, France’s, Israel, Pakistan, British, Yemen, Suez, London, Asia
Some CEOs expect at least a five percent reduction in employees in 2024 thanks to AI, PwC found. Leaders in media, banking, and insurance are most likely to expect AI job replacement, study shows. Workers should learn how to use AI on the job to reduce company costs, PwC's AI lead told BI. When it comes to generative AI, many CEOs said they see adopting the technology as an opportunity to increase revenues and boost efficiency. "Some of those efficiency benefits appear likely to come via employee headcount reduction — at least in the short term — with one-quarter of CEOs expecting to reduce headcount by at least 5% in 2024 due to generative AI," PwC said.
Persons: PwC, , Bret Greenstein, Greenstein, Goldman Sachs, Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: Workers, Service, The Conference Board
Tensions With Iran Add to Pakistan's Economic Challenges
  + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Jan. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
Pakistan conducted strikes inside Iran, targeting separatist Baloch militants two days after Tehran said it had attacked the bases of another group within Pakistani territory. It is undergoing a tough $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme that pulled it from the brink of default last summer. Pakistan's international bonds fell after its foreign ministry said it conducted strikes inside Iran on Thursday, two days after Tehran attacked the bases of another group within Pakistani territory. Earlier in the day, Pakistan's benchmark share index fell 1.6% after Pakistan said it conducted strikes inside Iran, before recovering some ground. Pakistan's economic ties with Iran, while not huge, are important for Islamabad as it struggles to supply its western- most regions in Balochistan with critical commodities, including fuel and electricity.
Persons: Aneel Salman, Salman, Pakistan's, Hasnain Malik, Ariba Shahid, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Baloch, Monetary Fund, Liquified Petroleum Gas, Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Pipeline Locations: KARACHI, LONDON, Pakistan, Iran, Tehran, Tradeweb, Islamabad, Balochistan, Afghanistan, Russia, India, Karachi, London
“The Argentine economy is in such bad shape that it has to be shaken up. President Milei and his team are doing exactly that,” she said during an interview in Davos. He has also devalued Argentina’s currency. However, some of Milei’s measures, such as the devaluation, are also likely to stabilize Argentina’s economy in the medium term, Sperrfechter said. Among his most radical plans, Milei has pledged to ditch the peso as Argentina’s official currency and replace it with the US dollar.
Persons: London CNN —, ” “, ” Javier Milei, , Milei, Juan Peron, Kristalina Georgieva, CNN’s Richard Quest Wednedsay, Milei’s, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Sperrfechter, It’s Organizations: London CNN, Economic, Council, Foreign Relations, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Argentine, Capital Economics, CNN, , US Federal Reserve Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Argentina, Argentine, US, “ Argentina
China was due Wednesday to release GDP figures for 2023, and previously announced an official target of around 5% growth for the year. Despite significant growth in sectors such as tourism and electric cars, China's economy last year did not rebound from the pandemic as quickly as many banks had initially expected. watch nowThe International Monetary Fund in November also cited China's policy announcements as a reason for its decision to raise the 2023 growth forecast to 5.4%, from 5% previously. However, the IMF said it still expected China's growth to slow in 2024 to 4.6% "amid continuing weakness in the property market and subdued external demand." In the long term, analysts generally expect China's economy to slow further from a high base.
Persons: Pan Jianyong, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Li Qiang, Haibin Zhu, Li Organizations: Co, Getty, Visual China, BEIJING —, Economic, Tuesday, UBS, Citi, JPMorgan, CNBC, China, China Economic, Monetary Fund Locations: MEISHAN, CHINA, Sichuan, Meishan, Sichuan Province, China, Davos, Beijing, decelerating
"It's good to be back and see Davos highlighting the global crisis in trust," Guterres said in his opening remarks. In a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Guterres warned that the rapid development of AI could result in "serious unintended consequences." "Every new interaction of generative AI increases the risk of serious unintended consequences. "These two issues, climate and AI, are exhaustively discussed by governments, by the media and by leaders here in Davos. "The reason is simple, geopolitical divides are preventing us from coming together around global solutions for global challenges.
Persons: Antonio Guterres, Fabrice COFFRINI, FABRICE COFFRINI, WEF, Guterres, António Guterres, Satya Nadella, — CNBC's Ryan Browne Organizations: Economic, Getty, United Nations, Microsoft, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Davos, AFP, Switzerland, U.S
The crisis in the Red Sea threatens to damage the economy by increasing prices on consumers and delaying the shipment of goods. A Houthi official vowed on Wednesday that attacks on “Israeli-linked” vessels in the Red Sea as well as the Arabian Sea will continue. Ikea also does not foresee any product shortages from the Red Sea problems. “Shippers are now much better at using alternative ways of moving their goods around the world,” Zandi said. “We have not seen the situation in the Red Sea translate into material movements in prices in the US such as consumer goods and gasoline prices,” Schwartz said.
Persons: , Marcus Baker, Marsh McLennan, Baker, Vicent Clerc, ” Clerc, CNN’s Richard Quest, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Kristalina Georgieva, Quest, ” Zandi, Stephen Schwartz, ” Schwartz Organizations: CNN, US, US Central Command, Maersk, International Monetary Fund, Oxford University . Shipping, P, Moody’s, Global, IMF, Economic, Wednesday, Ikea, Wells, Wells Fargo Global Receivables, Trade Finance Locations: Israel, Marsh, Suez, Africa, China, Davos, Switzerland, , Asia, Europe, Germany, Wells Fargo, Iran
The rise of AI has elicited fear that the technology will eliminate millions of jobs around the world. The International Monetary Fund this week reported that about 40% of jobs around the world could be affected by the rise of AI. Gates doesn’t necessarily disagree with that notion, but he believes history shows with every new technology comes fear and then new opportunity. “I have more than enough money for my own consumption,” Gates said when Zakaria asked how philanthropic efforts are going. At a rate of $9 billion a year, Gates anticipates he’ll have given away all of his money in about 20 years.
Persons: New York CNN —, Bill Gates, Gates, ” Gates, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, OpenAI’s, , Zakaria, hadn’t, “ I’m, I’ll, Melinda French Gates, he’s, Warren Buffett, CNN’s “ Fareed Zakaria Organizations: New, New York CNN, Monetary Fund, Microsoft, OpenAI, Gates, World Economic, CNN Locations: New York, Davos, Africa
CNBC Daily Open: Down to Davos
  + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Asia markets fell, led lower by declines in Hong Kong stocks, as Japan shares cooled off from their record-breaking rally. Georgieva told CNBC on the sidelines of Davos that the world's second-largest economy is facing both short-term and long-term challenges. [PRO] Morgan Stanley picks 'alpha' stocksAlpha stocks are those that can beat the benchmark index, and Morgan Stanley picked its favorite plays in Asia.
Persons: Martin Luther King Day, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Robert Holzmann, it's, Mario Centeno, Georgieva Organizations: CNBC, ECB, European Central Bank, Economic, International Monetary Fund, Alpha Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, Japan, Davos, Switzerland, China, Pacific
BANGKOK (AP) — Shares fell Tuesday in Asia, with Hong Kong’s benchmark down nearly 2%, as jitters over Chinese markets dimmed confidence across the region. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index fell, snapping a New Year’s winning streak that took it to its highest level in 34 years. The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen even as a former central bank official said that the Bank of Japan is preparing to end its longstanding negative interest rate policy. The dollar bought 146.12 yen, up from 145.75 late Monday and at its highest level in more than one month. Traders are largely betting on the Fed cutting its main interest rate six or more times through 2024.
Persons: , Meituan, Kristalina Georgieva, Kospi, Germany's DAX, It's, Brent Organizations: Dow Jones, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Tencent, China Garden Holding, Ocean, IMF, CNBC, CAC, Traders, Fed, New York Mercantile Exchange Locations: BANGKOK, Asia, U.S, Shanghai, China, Beijing, South, Australia, Paris
CNBC Daily Open: A look across the Atlantic
  + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. ECB could defy marketsEuropean Central Bank policymaker and hawk Robert Holzmann said the ECB may not deliver any interest rate cuts this year. Holzmann told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he sees a possibility of zero rate cuts this year, defying market expectations. Georgieva told CNBC on the sidelines of Davos that the world's second-largest economy is facing both short-term and long-term challenges.
Persons: Martin Luther King, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Georgieva Organizations: CNBC, Economic, Martin Luther King Day, Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Germany, China
Climate catastrophes: Climate change is a hot topic as leaders meet to discuss balancing economic growth with sustainability. Davos comes just days after scientists around the globe reported that the average temperatures last year reached a new record high. The report also said that cooperation among global leaders on the issue is scarce. So while leaders will likely discuss the use of fossil fuels and green development, there may not be much agreement. Leaders gathered in Davos Sunday to discuss Ukrainian President Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan to end Russia’s war with his country.
Persons: Isaac Herzog, Volodymyr Zelensky, Emmanuel Macron, Li Qiang, Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, John Kerry, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Jamie Dimon, Brian Moynihan, Larry Fink, Donald Trump, , Philipp Hildebrand, CNN’s Richard Quest, ” “, ” Nicolai Tangen, CNN’s, , Kristalina Georgieva, OpenAI’s Altman, Microsoft’s, Zelensky’s, JPMorgan’s Dimon, Herzog, Klaus Schwab, Tami Luhby, Elon Musk, Bernard Arnault, Jeff Bezos, Larry Ellison, Warren Buffett, Nabil Ahmed, ” Ahmed, Jordan Valinsky, Comité Organizations: New, New York CNN, World Economic, National, Business, Microsoft, JPMorgan, Bank of America, BlackRock, Republican, GOP, ” BlackRock, Bank, Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, State, Amazon, Oracle, Berkshire Hathaway, Oxfam, Workers Locations: New York, Davos, United States, Iowa, Europe, Taiwan, India, Mexico, China, Covid, Champagne, France
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIMF chief: China needs reforms to halt 'significant' growth declinesInternational Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says China needs structural reforms to halt "a fairly significant decline in growth rates."
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: IMF, Fund Locations: China
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, at a press conference at the IMF Headquarters on April 14, 2023. The head of the International Monetary Fund warned Monday that China needs structural reforms in order to avoid "a fairly significant decline in growth rates." Speaking to CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Kristalina Georgieva said China was facing both short-term and long-term challenges. In the short-term, she said China's property sector still needed "fixing," along with a high level of local government debt. "Ultimately, what China needs are structural reforms to continue to open up the economy, to balance the growth model more towards domestic consumption, meaning create more confidence in people, so [they] don't save, they spend more," Georgieva said.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, CNBC, Economic Locations: China, Davos, Switzerland
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says AI will impact roughly 40% of global employment. She expects advanced economies to be more affected than emerging markets and developing economies. AdvertisementIMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva predicts that AI will affect roughly 40% of jobs worldwide. This is because of AI's "ability to impact high-skilled jobs," Georgieva said. In comparison, Georgieva expects emerging markets and developing economies to "face fewer immediate disruptions from AI."
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, , Georgieva, Goldman Sachs, Annesh Raman, Raman, Molly Wood Organizations: Service, IMF, Business Insider
In a Sunday blog post, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva called for governments to establish social safety nets and offer retraining programs to counter the impact of AI. As AI continues to be adapted by more workers and businesses, it’s expected to both help and hurt the human workforce, Georgieva noted. In more developed economies, for example, as much as 60% of jobs could be impacted by AI. AI became a hot topic at the WEF in Davos last year as ChatGPT took the world by storm. Georgieva, in her blog post, also cited opportunities to boost output and incomes around the world with the use of AI.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, , Georgieva, ChatGPT, Goldman Sachs, “ Let’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Economic, Locations: Hong Kong, Davos, Switzerland, India, Brazil, Burundi, Sierra Leone
The IMF noted that about 60% of jobs could be impacted by AI in high-income nations, and roughly half of these may benefit from AI integration to boost productivity. Comparatively, AI exposure was estimated to come in at 40% in emerging markets and at 26% in low-income countries, respectively. The findings suggest that emerging markets and low-income countries face fewer disruptions from AI in the short-term. The IMF also flagged that AI could affect income and wealth inequality within countries, warning of "polarization within income brackets." The IMF report comes as business and political leaders from around the world gather at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Persons: Hollie Adams, Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Goldman Sachs, WEF Organizations: Economic, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary Fund, D.C, IMF Locations: Davos, Switzerland, The Washington
India's stock market hit a $4 trillion valuation for the first time on Tuesday, per Bloomberg. It's narrowing the gap with Hong Kong, the world's fourth-largest stock market. AdvertisementThe value of companies listed on India's stock exchanges hit $4 trillion for the first time on Tuesday – narrowing the gap with Hong Kong, Bloomberg reported. Hong Kong is the world's fourth-largest stock market, but is now worth less than $4.7 trillion following an 18% slide in the Hang Seng Index this year. The Indian market was worth less than $1.5 trillion in pandemic-affected 2020, according to Bloomberg, but has since made significant gains.
Persons: , Narendra Modi, Sanjeev, Sharekhan, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Reuters, IMF, Apple Locations: Hong Kong, India, China, Japan
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