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Underscoring our optimism, total hybrid sales last week came in strong for the fourth quarter and the year. They grew 55.5% for the quarter while EV sales rose 27.5%. With higher-margin hybrid sales topping the quarter and the year, the Maverick Hybrid was the best performer, with a 67% increase in 2023 sales from the year-ago period. Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo analysts are taking a pretty pessimistic view of the auto industry in the year ahead. F 1Y mountain Ford 1 year Reflecting that apprehension, the late-2023 upswing in Ford stock has been reversing a bit in the new year.
Persons: Ford, Jim Farley, Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Tesla, Wells Fargo, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Michael Nagle Organizations: Ford, ICE, General Motors, Federal Reserve, Management, CNBC, New York, Auto, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: New York, U.S
Mortgage rates dropped substantially toward the end of last year, but it could be a few months before we see them ease further. This week, average 30-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.66%, according to Freddie Mac, a four-basis-point increase from the week before. Though we may need to wait a bit longer for the Fed to start cutting rates, once it does, mortgage rates should recede somewhat. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates ticked up this week for the second week in a row, but remain more than a full percentage point lower than their high last year. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66% in the week ending January 11, up from 6.62% the previous week, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Lower mortgage rates expected to bring new inventoryWhile mortgage rates trending lower is welcome news for homebuyers, those in the market are still dealing with the double whammy of low inventory and high home prices that continue to rise. But, she added, the pace of mortgage rates declining is likely to be slower going forward than the dramatic nine-week drop at the end of 2023.
Persons: Freddie Mac, who’ve, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, That’s, Jiayi Xu, Xu Organizations: DC CNN —, , Federal, Treasury Locations: Washington
The utilities sector suffered so much in 2023, that it's due for a snapback in the new year, according to Barclays. They also made the stocks' dividend payments less attractive compared to the risk-free yields on Treasurys. But now these stocks are priced to move, according to Barclays analyst Nicholas Campanella. "We still like the stock," Barclays said, pointing to upside to consensus earnings per share as one of the factors behind its call. Duke offers a dividend yield of 4.2%, but 12 out of the 20 analysts following the stock rate it a hold, per LSEG.
Persons: Nicholas Campanella, XLU, Campanella, Evergy, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays . Utilities, Barclays, SPDR, Fed, Electric Power, Dominion Energy, E Corporation, Duke Energy, Duke Locations: Kansas, Kansas City
Then we'll review what I think will happen into year end and a possible market hedge idea. FedEx gave us a sense of how things are looking when they reported earnings Tuesday evening, and it wasn't good. We got all of them out of FedEx earnings, they hit a dinger, in a bad way, which disappointed the Street to say the least. Market downside reversal I was surprised when, after dipping slightly on the open the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied mildly. Hedge The S & P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) January $460 puts were $2.98 as of the close Wednesday.
Persons: we'll, Charles Dow, Ken Hoexter, Raj Sumbramaniam, I'm, Goldman Sachs, Apple isn't, Santa Claus, Today's Organizations: FedEx, The, Journal, Bank of America, Dow Jones Industrial, Depot, Caterpillar, Boeing, Honeywell, Nasdaq, Apple, Bollinger, FDX Locations: Tuesday's, Santa
The equity market is due for a cooldown, according to several strategists, who are telling clients to begin positioning themselves defensively in preparation for a slow-growth earnings environment next year. The S & P 500 has rallied almost 24% this year, but is up 11% in the fourth quarter alone. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , for example, is up 24% this quarter, but still down 12% for the year. According to Calvasina, industrials are the most overvalued sector in the S & P 500, while energy and communication services offer the most attractive valuations. .GSPHC YTD mountain S & P Health Care sector performance this year.
Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna, haven't, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Barclays, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Big Tech, Regional Banking, RBC Capital, P Health Care, JPMorgan Locations: Krishna, SPX, Europe
After a year of steady, resilient growth, the US economy will finally slip into a recession in 2024. Deutsche Bank is also calling for double-digit profit growth in a weaker economic backdrop. "For 2024, the house economics view with a mild short US recession implies $250 (+10%)," Chadha wrote in reference to S&P 500 earnings. Deutsche Bank also foresees earnings growth next year. "We remain overweight the financials as well as consumer cyclicals as they are already priced for a recession and the biggest beneficiary of an eventual recovery," Chadha wrote.
Persons: That's, , Chris Grisanti, Brian Belski, Chadha, Belski, Financials, BMO's Organizations: Wall, Business, BMO Capital Markets, Deutsche Bank, MAI Capital Management, CNBC, BMO, Deutsche, Labor, Investors, Tech Locations: Chadha
On the flip side, some oversold names could be due for some near-term gains. A 14-day RSI reading above 70 typically indicates that a stock is overbought and could face a pullback. Here are some of the most overbought names: Equifax was the most overbought name on the list, with a 14-day RSI reading of 97.13. Other overbought names on the list include BlackRock and Northern Trust . Stocks that are oversold include Cigna , which has a 14-day RSI of 20.49.
Persons: Equifax, Shlomo Rosenbaum, Nick McKay, McKay, Cigna, Hormel, Fred Imbert Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, CNBC, BlackRock, Northern Trust, CNBC Pro, Street, Humana, Cisco, Wynn Resorts, Locations: Equifax, 2H24
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 could still hit 5,000 by mid-2024, says Citi's Scott ChronertScotScottt Chronert, Citi U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Chronert's feeling about the economy going into 2024, what could be a headwind for markets, and Chronert's worries about margin pressures.
Persons: Citi's Scott Chronert ScotScottt Chronert Organizations: Citi U.S
Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. But Macklem also said "right now, it is not time to start thinking about cutting interest rates." Interest rate futures are pricing the first rate cut in March, earlier than the poll prediction. "Accompanying labour market weakness should put downward pressure on inflation and prompt the Bank of Canada to cut the policy rate around of the spring of 2024," they wrote. That was despite several government measures announced in the latest Fall Economic Statement to boost housing supply and help lenders dealing with homeowners at risk amid high interest rates.
Persons: Blair Gable, Macklem, It's, Avery Shenfeld, Robert Hogue, Sebastian Mintah, Mumal Rathore, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, Reuters, BoC, U.S . Federal, Barclays, CIBC Capital Markets, of Canada, RBC, Desjardins, Moody's, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, BENGALURU, stagnate
Raymond James is bracing for a "mild" recession in the new year that will likely result in only "modest positive gains" for equities in 2024. "Single Digit Returns A Decent Base Case," he added. In Raymond James' base case scenario, or what it believes is the most likely assumption, McCourt said that corporate profit expectations likely need to come down. Heading into the new year, Raymond James favors several stock sectors, among them medical devices, financial services and insurance issues. In its base case scenario, real estate, utilities and telecom offer the best risk-reward.
Persons: Raymond James, Tavis McCourt, McCourt, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq
We are closing out an extraordinary month: The S & P 500 is up nearly 9%, its fourth-best month in 12 years. The equal weight S & P 500 is up almost as much as the market-cap weighted S & P 500. Of the 10 major financial firms, only two (Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan) see the S & P 500 lower next year. Wall Street strategists' year-end S & P 500 estimates . That puts the S & P 500 at a very rich multiple of almost 19 times forward earnings (17x is the historic norm).
Persons: Russell, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, bullish, Brian Belski, Scott Wren, Wren, That's, JP Morgan's, Dubravko Organizations: Wall, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Treasury, Core PCE, Wells Fargo Institute, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, Atlanta
Loan growth at Asian banks is estimated to rise from 4.5% this year to 10% next year, LSEG data shows, with banks in India and Indonesia leading with 15% and 11% growth, respectively. Ng likes banks in India and Indonesia, given the better economic growth in those economies and ability of banks to sustain margins. LSEG data shows profits at banks in India and Indonesia will grow 13% and 11% respectively next year, nearly double the 6% average rise across Asia-Pacific banks. That compares to price-to-book ratio for MSCI's index for all-country Asian banks (.dMIAS0CB00PUS) of 0.9. Banks in Australia are estimated to see a drop of 5% in profit in 2024 while profits at Singapore banks will be flat.
Persons: Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Morgan, Yao Ng, abrdn, Ng, Vinay Agarwal, Agarwal, Morgan Stanley, Ankur Banerjee, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: U.S . Federal, Fed, HSBC, ICICI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, FSSA Investment Management, Indonesia's Bank Central Asia, BCA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Asia, Japan, J.P, Pacific, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Banks, Australia, China, Bengaluru
A lot of the spending was driven by deals and buy-now, pay-later programs. The Fed’s “beige book” report on the economy is out on Wednesday, and that will show how inflation is affecting businesses and consumers. But consumers continue to express concern over inflation that has left overall prices higher by about 18% since 2021. “With inflation falling as the Fed keeps rates unchanged, real interest rates continue to tighten,” said Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair. But consumers remain concerned about inflation and just how much will be seen on Tuesday when the Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index for November.
Persons: SpendingPulse, , Vivek Pandya, Signifyd, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Organizations: Adobe Analytics, Adobe Digital, Consumers, Retailers, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wells, , Conference Board
Eurizon strategists forecast US inflation to steadily fall to the Fed's target of 2%. Since the 1990s, Japan's aging population has caused inflation and interest rates to fall. By Eurizon's calculations, Japan's labor force peaked in 2019, at 1.7 times its size from 1950, which suggests an average annual labor force growth rate of 0.77 percent a year through the expansion. Similarly, China's labor force peak from 2018 will likely be pushed back by new policies. Eurizon SLJ Capital LimitedAs more countries follow Japan's demographic path, inflation should follow a similar trajectory.
Persons: , Stephen Jen, Joana Freire, Jen, Freire Organizations: Service, Japan, JPMorgan, Bank of, SLJ, Bank of America Locations: Japan, South Korea, Italy, China, EU, India
Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) made news heading into the end of this holiday shortened trading week. AAPL YTD mountain Apple (AAPL) year-to-date performance The news: Apple smartphone sales in China reportedly lagged those of Hauwei and Xiaomi during the country's recent Singles Day shopping event. Yes, there is smartphone competition to the iPhone in China, but Apple remains an aspirational brand there (and everywhere) because of its pricing, product quality and closed ecosystem. Nvidia garners around 20% of its revenue from China, and continues to face competition from Chinese companies like Huawei. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Daniel Ives, Ives, we're, it's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Apple, Nvidia, Reuters, Counterpoint Research, Huawei, Xiaomi, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, National Football, NFL, Amazon, CNBC, Getty Locations: China, Asia, India, Taipei, Taiwan
[1/3] A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. While Wall Street's rally was modest but broad-based, energy stocks (.SPNY) were the clear outlier, falling in tandem with crude prices . But crude prices settled well above the day's lows. U.S. crude dipped 0.86% to settle at $77.10 per barrel, while Brent settled at $81.96, down 0.59% on the day. Gold prices dipped below the key $2,000 per ounce level in opposition to the dollar's strength.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Ryan Detrick, Detrick, Sterling, Wall, Brent, Stephen Culp, Amanda Cooper, Deepa Babington Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, U.S, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Carson Group, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, OPEC, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Omaha, Asia, Pacific, Japan, OPEC, London
Money market traders are betting September's hike was the last, with almost 90 basis points of rate cuts priced by the end of 2024. European shares underperforming their U.S. counterparts was a common expectation amongst the survey's European respondents as the robust American economy looks more likely to achieve a 'soft landing' than Europe. European shares are much cheaper than those in the U.S., possibly reflecting the worse economic outlook. The STOXX Europe 600 trades at over 12 times 12-month forward earnings, a 35.6% discount to the S&P 500 (.SPX). "Still, as the broader economic slowdown takes hold of the continent's markets, we expect to see a rather challenging second half of 2024."
Persons: Chris Beauchamp, Thomas Monteiro, Germany's DAX, Fiona Cincotta, Cincotta, Investing.com's Monteiro, Monteiro, Samuel Indyk, Danilo Masoni, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Jason Neely Organizations: IG, European Central Bank, ECB, Investing.com, FTSE, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, riskier, U.S, Bengaluru
Bottom line This was a very strong quarter, with almost nothing to nitpick. This year's rapid Data Center sales growth we've seen has been driven largely by cloud providers and enterprises. Sales to China and other impacted regions have, in the past few quarters, accounted for 20% to 25% of Data Center sales. However, the team added that they "believe the decline will be more than offset by strong growth in other regions." Guidance Looking ahead to Nvidia's fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, we once again got far stronger guidance than Wall Street was modeling.
Persons: We're, Ada Lovelace, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jensen Huang Organizations: Nvidia, Revenue, Automotive, Data Center, Microsoft, Oracle, U.S, Data, Gaming, Ada, Nvidia's Automotive, Wall, CNBC, Getty Locations: China, Taiwan
Sales of existing homes fell by 4.1% in October as a shortage of houses for sale and higher mortgage rates dampened activity, the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. The annual level of sales reached 3.79 million, down 14.6% from a year ago when sales were 4.44 million. “Prospective home buyers experienced another difficult month due to the persistent lack of housing inventory and the highest mortgage rates in a generation,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. There is some relief, however, as mortgage rates have fallen in the past week. Some housing industry analysts believe rates could trend under 7% early next year as overall interest rates begin falling amid expectations the Federal Reserve is done raising rates.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, , Danielle Hale Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Midwest, Federal Locations:
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the weaker greenback, the euro hit its highest since August at $1.09365, while the yen firmed at a one-month high of 148.68 per dollar. The Japanese yen remained on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and was last 0.3% higher at 149.17. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1700 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1703 per dollar. The Aussie was last 0.5% higher at $0.6546, having struck a three-month high of $0.6563 earlier in the session, while the kiwi gained 0.54% to $0.6025.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China
The yuan struck three-month highs in both the onshore and offshore markets, propped up by China's central bank, while the Australian dollar similarly scaled a three-month top against the falling greenback. "If we do see risk appetite improve again, then the dollar can definitely weaken further." Against the weaker dollar, the euro rose to an over two-month high of $1.0924, ahead of flash PMI readings in the euro zone due later this week. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar edged roughly 0.5% higher to $0.6546, its strongest level since August, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.52% to $0.60235. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1753 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1745 per dollar.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Sterling, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China
Dollar on the back foot as focus turns to Fed easing
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
"(The) euro zone PMI surveys will be watched closely for further signs the region is on the cusp of, or already in, recession," said economists at Wells Fargo in a note. "In our view, the chances of at least a mild euro zone recession beginning in the latter part of 2023 are now becoming increasingly likely." Sterling slipped 0.06% to $1.24545, but was not far from a two-month high of $1.2506 hit last week. Ahead of China's loan prime rate decision later in the day, the offshore yuan firmed near a three-month high against the dollar and last stood at 7.2214 per dollar. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, fell 0.17% to $0.6504, while the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.04% to $0.5990.
Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong Organizations: Federal Reserve, PMI, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand Locations: China, Asia, Beijing, Wells
Here's how Morgan Stanley thinks the stock market will move in 2024, the economic warning signs investors should watch for, and which stocks are best positioned to outperform next year. A stronger stock market in 2024You'd think with the myriad problems stocks are facing right now that the market is in for a difficult year ahead. Wilson believes that earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. Morgan StanleyBeyond strong earnings growth for individual companies, Wilson expects that increased spending in a variety of industries will provide fiscal support across the market. Guided by the themes above, Wilson polled Morgan Stanley analysts for their top stock picks heading into 2024.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley Wilson, Wilson, Jerome Powell Organizations: Business, Reserve, Walmart, Target, Fed, White House Locations: headwinds, bailouts
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