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U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 30, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI, Dec 5 (Reuters) - China's major state-owned banks were seen swapping yuan for U.S. dollars in the onshore swap market and selling those dollars in the spot market to support the yuan on Tuesday, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. The state bank actions come at a time the Chinese yuan strengthened 2.55% to the dollar in November for the best month this year. Chinese state banks often act on behalf of the country's central bank in the foreign exchange market, but they would also trade on their own behalf. Big banks were spotted doing a similar trade late last month, helping the yuan's recovery against a broadly weaker U.S. dollar, Reuters reported.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Shanghai, Thomson
Gold prices have never been this high
  + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
London CNN —Gold prices hit an all-time high Monday, buoyed by growing expectations of interest rate cuts among investors, a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions. “This has created a more favorable environment for gold as a non-yielding asset.”John Reade, a market strategist at the World Gold Council, an association of gold producers, told CNN that, with investors predicting several rate cuts over the next year, gold prices could “quite possibly” shoot above Monday’s record high. Since gold is priced in US dollars, the fall in the greenback’s value has made it less expensive for investors outside the United States to buy the metal, which should have boosted demand and, in turn, lifted gold prices. Gold prices have risen 10% so far this year. According to the World Gold Council, central banks in emerging markets bought 473 metric tons (521 tons) of gold a year on average between 2010 and 2021.
Persons: ebbs, Daria Efanova, ” John Reade, Jamie Dimon, ” Reade, , Reade, Organizations: London CNN —, US Federal Reserve, Treasury, Sucden, World Gold Council, CNN, Interactive Investor Locations: United States, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, China, South China, Taiwan, Russian
Byju's logo is seen in this illustration taken, June 22, 2023. The infusion of funds would help pay 15,000 employees in the embattled company's parent firm, Think & Learn Pvt., the report added. The company is facing a string of setbacks, including investors cutting its valuation and its auditor and board members quitting. Reuters reported in November that India's federal financial crime-fighting agency had issued a show-cause notice to Byju's for alleged violations worth over 93 billion rupees ($1.12 billion) under the Foreign Exchange Management Act(FEMA). ($1 = 83.3480 Indian rupees)Reporting by Ashna Teresa Britto in Bengaluru; Editing by Sohini GoswamiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Byju Raveendran, founder's, Ashna Teresa Britto, Sohini Goswami Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bloomberg, Reuters, Foreign Exchange Management, FEMA, Thomson Locations: Indian, Bengaluru
It will see suspended payments repaid from 2027 to 2029 after a grace period from 2025 to 2026, the Paris Club said in a statement, noting that the deal was reached on Nov. 23. If Ethiopia does not get an IMF staff-level agreement by March 31, the official creditor committee "reserves the right to declare the suspension null and void", the Paris Club said. The Paris Club said 10 of its members were on Ethiopia's official creditor committee, which is co-chaired by France and non-Paris Club member China. Other non-Paris Club committee members are India, Kuwait, Poland, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. "We welcome the recent announcement of an interim standstill agreement with official creditors," the IMF spokesperson added.
Persons: Tellimer, Patrick Curran, Rachel Savage, Rodrigo Campos, Alex Richardson, Toby Chopra, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Paris Club, French Treasury, Ethiopian, IMF, Club, OCC, China, Thomson Locations: JOHANNESBURG, China, Addis Ababa, Tigray, Ethiopia, France, India, Kuwait, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Turkey
Forex swings will upend lucrative yen carry trade
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
But as central banks start moving in the opposite direction, those “carry trades” will become a lot riskier. Notably those who bet against its government bonds in a trade so bad it became known as the “widow maker”. Foreign exchange traders beg to differ: the carry trade has been a sure-fire money maker this year. That’s due to the huge gap in short-term interest rates between Japan, where they are -0.1%, and other countries. Reuters GraphicsThe most popular carry trade with yen has been into U.S. dollars .
Persons: , , Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, LSEG, Bank of America, U.S, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Japan, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Ukraine
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. But the extent of the political and economic jitters merely mirrors other signs of a long-term China exit well beyond portfolio flows. Earlier this month, China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in "bricks and mortar" foreign direct investment (FDI). What's more, a multi-year aversion to China investments then risks colliding with deteriorating long-term economic growth dynamics - heightened by rising youth unemployment and dire demographics. Despite some recent upgrades of China growth forecasts, yet another business survey this week raised red flags.
Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo, Nicholas Lardy, Xi, Lardy, What's, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Official Monetary, Financial, Reuters, . Commerce, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, OMFIF, Europe, North America, India, Brazil, Beijing, U.S, Washington, San Francisco
Many executives had expected the dollar to retreat this year after it shot higher in 2022. Some are now reviewing their hedging strategies. Photo: Cfoto/Zuma PressFinance chiefs are anticipating more pain from foreign exchange rates after the U.S. dollar strengthened again this summer and fall, following a historic tear last year. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of others, surged during the third quarter on higher Treasury yields, then skipped to its highest point of the year in October, when it stood 7% above a mid-July trough. Since then, the index has tumbled 4% from last month’s pinnacle and is on track for its lowest close in months, as Treasury yields soften and investors gain confidence that the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates in the foreseeable future.
Organizations: Zuma Press Finance, U.S ., U.S, Federal Reserve
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2018. The deal comes about a month after Sri Lanka's agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China covering about $4.2 billion of outstanding debt, while clearing the IMF review could trigger a second tranche of about $334 million in funds. "These understandings pave the way for the IMF Executive Board to consider completion of the first review of Sri Lanka's four-year Extended Fund Facility Arrangement," Peter Breuer, IMF's mission chief for Sri Lanka, said in a statement. "We look forward to the Executive Board taking up this review by mid-December and the continuation of our productive collaboration with Sri Lanka in the period ahead." Sri Lanka plunged into its worst financial crisis in seven decades last year after its foreign exchange reserves dwindled to record lows.
Persons: Yuri Gripas, Lanka's, Peter Breuer, IMF's, Nandalal Weerasinghe, Uditha Jayasinghe, Sudipto Ganguly, Clarence Fernandez, Steohen Coates Organizations: Monetary Fund, REUTERS, Rights, International Monetary Fund, Sri, Export, Import Bank of, IMF, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Import Bank of China, Sri Lanka's, Sri Lanka
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - After making hay when a summer bond rout propelled the U.S. dollar to 10-month highs, hedge funds are now pondering what lies ahead for the greenback. Five funds shared their views on the fate of the dollar. This does not represent recommendations or trading positions, which some hedge funds cannot reveal for regulatory reasons. He expects the U.S. economy to slow sharply which, alongside falling inflation, will likely hurt the dollar against some emerging market currencies. The Brazilian real, trading at 4.8908 per dollar , is up roughly 8% so far this year against the dollar.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jonathan Fader, Fader, Doug Greenig, Florin Court's, Greenig, Tara Hariharan, Hariharan, NWI, Carlos Calabresi, Michael Sager, Sager, Nell Mackenzie, Carolina Mandl, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, greenback, Swiss, Reuters, FLORIN, China Foreign Exchange Trade, Long, Garde, CIBC, Thomson Locations: U.S, American, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, Poland, China, Asia, Brazilian, London, Carolina, New York
The logo of Robinhood Markets, Inc. is seen at a pop-up event on Wall Street after the company's IPO in New York City, U.S., July 29, 2021. Since then, trading activity has shrunk as people grapple with a cost-of-living crisis caused by high interest rates and inflation. Robinhood said UK customers will have access to commission-free trading of more than 6,000 US-listed stocks and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), without foreign exchange fees and no account minimums. "For too long, UK investors have incurred high fees to invest in the U.S. markets and earned low returns on their uninvested cash," said Jordan Sinclair, president of Robinhood UK. The online brokerage missed Wall Street estimates for third-quarter revenue earlier this month after a slowdown in trading activity.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Robinhood, Vlad Tenev, Jordan Sinclair, Sinead Cruise, Kirstin Ridley, Jane Merriman, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Inc, REUTERS, Authority, Robinhood, U.S . Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Britain, United States
The logo of Nomura Securities is seen at the company's Head Office in Tokyo, Japan, November 28, 2016. The fixed income trading business is expected to improve as the outlook for global interest rates becomes clearer, but "we won't just wait for a market recovery," he added. A bright spot for Nomura is the domestic business, as the Japanese stock market is trading at highest levels in three decades. Nomura's Japan business revenue for the April-September first half of the current fiscal year grew 31% from the same period a year before. The Japan market recovery "is providing the greatest business chance for us with the strong Japanese franchise and global investor base," he said.
Persons: Toru Hanai, Kentaro, Kentaro Okuda, Okuda, Nomura, Makiko Yamazaki, Simon Cameron, Moore, Kim Coghill Organizations: Nomura Securities, REUTERS, Rights, Nomura Holdings, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan
London CNN —The US dollar is barreling toward a 3.7% loss this month against a basket of six major currencies in what would be it worst monthly performance in a year. For countries that depend on commodity imports, a weaker dollar means they have to pay less for essentials like wheat and crude oil. A number of up-and-coming economies have debts denominated in dollars, and a weaker dollar can make servicing those debts less expensive. A fall in the greenback’s value also signals better investment opportunities outside the United States, McCormick told CNN. “A weaker dollar is a rising tide that lifts all boats,” he said.
Persons: decelerate, ” Ulrich Leuchtmann, Cameron Willard, , ” Willard, , Mark McCormick, Leuchtmann, McCormick, stokes, Willard Organizations: London CNN, Reserve, CNN, TD Securities Locations: United States, Japan, Korea, India, Handelsbanken
The New Zealand dollar was last up 1.1% at a four-month high of $0.6207, having blown past resistance. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, slid to fresh multi-month lows on the euro, yen, sterling, the Australian dollar, yuan and Swiss franc. Overnight Fed Governor Christopher Waller - an influential and previously hawkish voice at the U.S. central bank - told the American Enterprise Institute that rate cuts could begin in a matter of months, provided inflation keeps falling. Fed funds futures rallied on the remark to price more than hundred basis points of cuts in 2024 and 40% chance they begin as soon as March. Two-year Treasury yields fell sharply and along with the dollar fell further still in Asia.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Governor Waller's, Tapas Strickland, Jerome Powell, Waller, CONDITIONALITY Waller's, Seng, Vishnu Varathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New Zealand, Nikkei, U.S ., Swiss, U.S, American Enterprise Institute, Governor, National Australia Bank, Fed, HK, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Sydney, China, Meituan, Zealand, Singapore
"Sri Lanka has been informed of an agreement," the source, who did not want to be identified, said. The Sri Lanka president's office and the finance ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Japan co-chairs the official creditor committee, together with France and India. China is Sri Lanka's largest bilateral creditor and is an observer in the group, steering clear of joining the group as a formal member. The ADB's funds are part of a $350 million special policy-based loan that was approved in May to support Sri Lanka.
Persons: Nandalal Weerasinghe, Takafumi Kadono, Sudipto Ganguly, Jacqueline Wong, Kim Coghill Organizations: Reuters, Export, Import Bank of China, International Monetary Fund, Asian Development Bank, World Bank, ADB, Thomson Locations: COLOMBO, Sri Lanka, Japan, France, India, China, Sri Lanka's, Colombo, Sri
The logo of Swiss drugmaker Novartis is pictured at the company's French headquarters in Rueil-Malmaison near Paris, France, April 22, 2020. REUTERS/Charles Platiau/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies Novartis AG FollowSandoz GmbH FollowFRANKFURT, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Novartis (NOVN.S) has dialled up its sales growth target to 5% per year until 2027, citing demand for innovative drugs after it sold off its generic-drugs business. The medium-term target, which excludes any foreign exchange effects, is mainly driven by six drugs, led by Kisqali, it said in a presentation on Tuesday. The sales forecast, up from a previous revenue growth target of 4% through 2027, is also underpinned by demand for Pluvicto, a precision radiotherapy against prostate cancer, and self-administered multiple sclerosis (MS) shot Kesimpta. Reporting by Ludwig Burger; Editing by Miranda Murray and Miral FahmyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Charles Platiau, Kisqali, Vas, Kesimpta, drugmaker, Sandoz, Ludwig Burger, Miranda Murray, Miral Organizations: Swiss, Novartis, REUTERS, Companies Novartis, Sandoz, FRANKFURT, Thomson Locations: Rueil, Malmaison, Paris, France, Basel, Swiss
[1/2] International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva addresses the media on the fourth day of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, in Marrakech, Morocco, October 12, 2023. "So that is to my mind the number one priority for this COP, is to recognise that business as usual has to be dropped." Several countries were also considering using their 2021 SDR allocation on a bilateral basis alongside IMF programmes, she added. While the current average price was now around $5 a ton, "clearly there is a long, long, long way to go", she said, citing a preference for carbon taxes but openness to trading systems, as seen in Europe, or U.S.-style standards and rebates. This is ongoing work at the fund," she said, citing ongoing talks with the World Bank on how it would work.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Susana Vera, Georgieva, it's, Andrea Shalal, Marc Jones, David Lawder, Alex Richardson Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Growth Trust, Sustainability Trust, African Development Bank, Inter, American Development Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Dubai, Paris, Europe
The central bank in August stopped buying foreign currency until the end of the year to avoid aggravating pressure on the rouble, which tumbled past 100 to the dollar in August and September. "From January 2024, the Bank of Russia is resuming operations on the domestic foreign currency market connected to replenishing and using National Wealth Fund (NWF) funds, including taking into account all operations carried out with NWF funds in 2023," the central bank said in a statement. "Therefore, from the start of 2024, the central bank will not buy foreign currency (what it did not buy in August-December), but will increase its sales," Suvorov said. The rouble did not react on Monday, continuing to hover near the more than five-month high it hit last week. The central bank conducts those operations on behalf of the finance ministry, which resumed its interventions in January after a hiatus of several months, shunning what it terms "unfriendly" Western currencies in favour of China's yuan.
Persons: Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Mark Trevelyan Organizations: Bank of Russia, Wealth Fund, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Russian
China's central bank pledges to support domestic demand
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Thomas Peter/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING, Nov 27 (Reuters) - China's central bank on Monday said it would fend off systemic risks to the economy and use forceful and targeted monetary policy to better support domestic demand. "Prudent monetary policy should be precise and forceful, with greater emphasis on cross-cyclical and countercyclical adjustments, enriching the monetary policy toolbox," the bank said. The bank added it would "further unblock the monetary policy transmission mechanism", enhance the stability of financial support for the real economy and keep prices "reasonably stable". China's economy is gaining momentum, but it faces challenges such as an imbalanced global economic recovery and an unstable foundation for domestic economic recovery, the central bank said. "Supply and demand dynamics in the property market have greatly changed," the central bank said.
Persons: Thomas Peter, Liangping Gao, Kevin Yao, Ella Cao, Ethan Wang, Bernard Orr, Toby Chopra, Christina Fincher Organizations: Central Business District, National People's Congress, REUTERS, Rights, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights BEIJING
The ongoing decline in China's US bond holdings is not as big as it seems, according to Ned Davis Research. "Although China's holdings of US debt are down, after some adjustments, it's a lot less than the headline implies," NDR said. "The rationale for using these conduits is that when added to China's Treasury holdings, they closely track China's foreign exchange reserves." "Although China's holdings of US debt are down, after some adjustments, it's a lot less than the headline implies," Kalish said. AdvertisementOne person who's not concerned about China reducing its Treasury holdings is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Persons: Ned Davis, , Joseph Kalish, Kalish, who's, Janet Yellen, Xi Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Service, US, Treasury Locations: China, Beijing, Belgium, Luxembourg, San Francisco
With some German property developers filing for insolvency, construction activity has dropped over a third from a year ago. That bleak outlook was despite the government recently announcing a 45 billion euro ($47 billion) support package for the property sector and measures to encourage house building, including tax incentives. With overall economic activity expected to remain weak over the coming quarters, it could take a while for the property sector to recover. The euro zone's commercial property sector could also struggle for years, posing a threat to the banks and investors who financed it, the ECB said recently. The median view of 12 property experts forecast average home rental prices to rise 4.0% or more until 2026.
Persons: Lisi Niesner, Sebastian Schnejdar, Carsten Brzeski, Indradip Ghosh, Purujit Arun, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Ross Finley, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BENGALURU
Under the new terms offered by Brookfield, the A$9.43 per share bid remains but some investors can stay invested in the energy markets business that would be owned by Brookfield. Brookfield's consortium partner EIG Partners would take on Origin's integrated gas business which includes the 27.5% stake in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG). If that bid fails to achieve 75% shareholder support, an alternative proposal has been lodged that would see Origin sell the energy markets business to Brookfield for A$12.3 billion. When asked during a press conference if he had reservations about the revised deal, Chairman Scott Perkins said: "absolutely". DONE TALKINGFollowing the announcement of the revised offer, EIG CEO Blair Thomas told Reuters that he was done talking to AustralianSuper.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Australia's, EIG, Scott Perkins, Blair Thomas, Allan Gray, Simon Mawhinney, Mawhinney, Chris Bowen, Scott Murdoch, Lewis Jackson, Praveen Menon, Lincoln, Sonali Paul, Jamie Freed Organizations: Brookfield, REUTERS, SYDNEY, Brookfield ., EIG Partners, Australia Pacific LNG, Reuters, Brookfield consortium's, Energy, Thomson Locations: Brookfield, Sydney, Australia
Origin said based on the early votes received the original offer would not have won support. Under the new terms, the A$9.43 per share bid remains but some investors can stay invested in the energy markets business that would be owned by Brookfield. If that bid fails to achieve 75% shareholder support, an alternative proposal has been lodged that would see Origin sell the energy markets business to Brookfield for A$12.3 billion ($8 billion). Origin shareholders would receive a total of A$9.08 per share, with an additional A$0.22 if EIG got up to 90.1% control of Origin. Institutional investors who have already voted on the A$9.43 offer can choose to change or keep their vote, or opt to invest in the energy markets business.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, EIG, Chris Bowen, Scott Murdoch, Lewis Jackson, Miral Fahmy, Lincoln, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brookfield, REUTERS, Companies Brookfield, Origin Energy, Brookfield ., EIG Partners, Australia Pacific LNG, Brookfield consortium's, Energy, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Brookfield, Sydney, Australian, Australia
REUTERS/Andrew Kelly Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Most key global stock indexes are forecast to rise modestly over the coming year, closing 2024 below record highs, while a slim majority of stock market experts polled by Reuters expected their markets to touch new peaks within the next six months. However, only a handful of the 15 top stock indexes were predicted to trade at record peaks by end-2024, based on a wider Nov. 9-22 poll of more than 120 stock market experts. LOWER BOND YIELDSFor now, markets are pricing in a series of 2024 rate cuts, which is sending bond yields lower and stock prices higher. "Falling bond yields are being interpreted by equity markets as a positive in the near-term," said Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at J.P. Morgan. Canada's main stock index was expected to rise less than previously thought over the coming year as a slowdown in the global economy weighs on the outlook for corporate earnings.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, Hari Kishan, Indradip Ghosh, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BENGALURU, Monday's, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Toronto
Trading in Origin Energy shares was paused on Thursday. Brookfield Corp (BN.TO), which has teamed up with EIG Partner's MidOcean Energy, and Origin Energy did not respond to requests for comment. Origin shares closed on Wednesday at A$8.42, up 1.69%, but well below the offer price of A$9.43 per share. If everyone thought it was going ahead the share price would be higher," he told Reuters. Origin shares remain 2.1% lower than last week's close and have traded well below the offer price since the new bid.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, EIG, Jamie Hannah, I'm, Scott Murdoch, Lewis Jackson, Miral Fahmy Organizations: Brookfield, REUTERS, Rights, Origin Energy, Brookfield Corp, Energy, Investors, Newmont Corp, Newcrest Mining, VanEck, Reuters, Origin, Thomson Locations: Brookfield, Lincoln
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 23 (Reuters) - A Brookfield-led consortium's A$16.3 billion ($10.61 billion) bid for Origin Energy (ORG.AX) is expected to fail after the largest shareholder in Australia's biggest energy retailer said it would vote against the offer at an investor meeting on Thursday. The energy company's shares closed on Wednesday at A$8.42, up 1.69%, but well below the offer price of A$9.43 per share. If everyone thought it was going ahead the share price would be higher," he told Reuters. Brookfield and Origin Energy declined to comment on Thursday's vote. Origin shares remain 2.1% lower than last week's close and have traded well below the offer price since the new bid arrived, suggesting investors were pessimistic of its success.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, EIG, Jamie Hannah, I'm, Macquarie, Ian Myles, Scott Murdoch, Lewis Jackson, Miral Organizations: Brookfield, REUTERS, Rights, Origin Energy, Newmont Corp, Newcrest Mining, Brookfield Corp, Energy, VanEck, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Brookfield, Sydney
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