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Search resuls for: "FiveThirtyEight"


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Former President Trump said Florida Gov. Trump called O'Dea, a GOP candidate for Senate in Colorado, a "RINO," or a Republican in Name Only. Ron DeSantis endorsed anti-Trump Republican candidate Joe O'Dea, taking to his Truth Social platform on Sunday evening to say it was "A Big Mistake." Colorado, please vote for Joe O'Dea," DeSantis says in the recorded message O'Dea posted on Twitter. Representatives for DeSantis, Trump, and O'Dea did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment.
Arizona republican candidate for governor Kari Lake greets the audience during a stop on the Truth and Courage PAC's Take Back America Bus Tour with U.S. Lake is endorsed by Trump, who spread false conspiracies that he lost that 2020 election because of widespread voter fraud. He helped to fuel the wave of GOP candidates who have run for office while casting doubts on the 2020 results. Ducey certified Arizona's 2020 election results. Hobbs, as the state's top election official, has denied any irregularities in the 2020 election.
One person familiar with the thinking inside the White House said Democratic chances of keeping control of the Senate were seen as 50-50. The White House, while realistic, has stuck publicly to that message of hope. Former and current advisers say the White House is preparing for any obstruction or probes that could be coming. "The White House is clear-eyed for what Republican control could look like," said Eric Schultz, a Democratic strategist with close ties to the White House. White House officials and Democratic strategists Reuters spoke to acknowledge the overall shift from midterms optimism, but were not ready to give up.
GREENSBORO, N.C.—In one of the closest Senate contests in the country, both political parties have emphasized energizing their bases more than trying to persuade a shrinking pool of undecided voters ahead of the midterm elections. The race between Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, and Rep. Ted Budd , a Republican backed by former President Donald Trump, has been close for months, as many elections in North Carolina have been in recent years. Mr. Budd holds a roughly 2.6 percentage-point edge, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
Republican candidates appear to be making gains in the final sprint to the November midterms, with new election forecasts in key swing states and partisan strongholds flashing warning signs for Democrats. Republican Senate hopeful J.D. Even in reliably blue states, Democrats' slim congressional majorities are under threat. The pollster surveyed 649 likely Texas voters between Oct. 16 and Oct. 19, and carries a plus or minus 5.1 percentage point margin of error. Accordingly, Democrats' chances of holding the Senate now look much tighter, according to FiveThirtyEight's tracker.
A GOP operative told The Washington Post that Trump could distract from GOP messaging. "Trump coming down to Georgia is the worst thing that can happen for Republican candidates down here," the operative told the Post. "It immediately turns the focus from inflation and immigration to Donald Trump, and Donald Trump lost the last election here." The Georgia race, considered one of the tightest in the country, has been called a toss-up by some experts, while poll averaging site FiveThirtyEight gives Warnock a slight edge. Sources told the Post Trump may do several additional rallies before election day, including in Georgia, but only where he is wanted.
Opinion | Frustrated With Polling? Pollsters Are, Too
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Quoctrung Bui | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +18 min
But what’s really troubling pollsters going into this election is that it’s unclear how much more error these problems will add during this cycle. Just because you put the right ingredients in a bowl, doesn’t mean you’re going to end up with a cake. I think a lot of that has been swept under the rug because the move to online polling seems so inexorable. Pollsters don’t know what people are seeing, hearing and reading. I know at FiveThirtyEight you can search by A-rated or B-rated, but I don’t know how they’re coming up with these ratings.
Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids faces off against Republican Amanda Adkins for Kansas' 3rd District. Kansas' 3rd Congressional District candidatesDavids is taking on healthcare executive Adkins once again, one of many 2020 House rematches on the ballot this November. Davids made history in 2018 as one of the first two Native American women elected to Congress when she bested four-term Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder. Voting history for Kansas' 3rd Congressional DistrictUnder the old lines, Democrats' margins have exploded at the top ticket as former President Donald Trump's presence sparked a suburban revolt. Kansas' 3rd District now juts out further past the Kansas City suburbs, giving it a much more rural feel.
Rep. Angie Craig is running against Republican Tyler Kistner in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District. Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District candidatesCraig is a member of House committees on Agriculture, Energy and Commerce, and Small Business. Voting history for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional DistrictMinnesota's 2nd District includes rural and suburban counties south of the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul. Craig flipped the seat from red to blue in 2018 after a rematch campaign against former Republican Rep. Jason Lewis. Her opponent, Kistner, has raised $2.8 million, spent $2.3 million, and has $499,003 left to spend, as of September 30.
Democrat Hillary Scholten is facing off against Republican John Gibbs in Michigan's 3rd District. Gibbs ousted incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer in a primary that hinged on Meijer's vote to impeach Trump. Michigan's 3rd Congressional District candidatesScholten thought she was gunning for a rematch with incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer, a Republican whose last name is literally a brand in Michigan. A state commission grappled with the loss of a seat by forcing the 3rd District to absorb much of an old seat, per FiveThirtyEight. In his 2020 race against Scholten, Meijer won by 6 points.
US aid to Ukraine could be in jeopardy if Republicans win the House in the midterms. Several GOP lawmakers and candidates have signaled they would support reducing or cutting off Ukraine aid. In April, 10 House Republicans voted against a bill allowing the Biden administration to more easily lend military equipment to Ukraine. The following month, 57 House Republicans voted "no" on a nearly $40 billion aid package for Ukraine. Some GOP opposition to continuing aid to Ukraine is tied to Trump's "America First" policy vis-a-vis foreign affairs.
WASHINGTON—Infusions of ad spending for GOP candidates and persistent voter anxiety over high inflation have brought new momentum to the Republican Party in House and Senate races, analysts say, just as early voting has begun for the midterm elections in many states. A Democratic lead of about 2 percentage points on the generic ballot—the question of whether voters plan to back a Democrat or Republican for Congress—has been cut by more than half since late September, the FiveThirtyEight average of polling results finds. Democratic leads in many Senate races have declined, according to aggregated polls, and Democratic candidates now trail in surveys in Wisconsin and Nevada, where they were once ahead. Control of both chambers hangs in the balance.
Tim Ryan blasted JD Vance for repeatedly invoking Nancy Pelosi during their Senate debate on Monday. Ryan at one point told Vance to "move back to San Francisco" and run against the House Speaker. "JD, you keep talking about Nancy Pelosi. If you want to run against Nancy Pelosi, move back to San Francisco and run against Nancy Pelosi," the Democratic lawmaker said. "Yet he votes and agrees with Nancy Pelosi 100% of the time.
Donald Trump lashed out at GOP candidate Joe O'Dea for listing others he wants to see run in 2024. O'Dea is running for Senate in Colorado, a race that could break the 50-50 Senate stalemate. O'Dea said he would do his best to prop up candidates like Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, Florida Gov. The Trump-O'Dea feud only benefits incumbent Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, who pollsters at FiveThirtyEight predict will clinch a fourth term. Recent polls have shown O'Dea making that re-election bid more interesting than expected, keeping Bennet's lead to just single digits in a state where President Joe Biden beat Trump by 13 points.
She also said that the GOP will "retire" House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. She told Decker she thinks the Senate will be very tight. The RNC chair added she's optimistic about Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz, despite him trailing Democratic candidate John Fetterman in recent polling. When asked about the allegations surrounding Herschel Walker, the Georgia Republican nominee for Senate, McDaniel told Decker he's been "very forthcoming" about his struggles with mental health. According to FiveThirtyEight, Republicans are favored to win the House while Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate.
Following the 2007-09 financial crisis when Democrats cracked down on banks, lenders have typically looked to business-friendly Republicans for support in Congress. And of the top-20 congressional recipients of bank PAC donations this cycle, 10 are Democrats compared with six in 2020, three in 2018, and one ahead of the 2016 election. Reuters GraphicsThe shift in giving patterns shows how banks are rethinking their allegiances amid increased political partisanship. To be sure, the party in power commonly enjoys a bounce in donations and banks are also spreading their bets ahead of a tightening contest, said Ballentine and the other sources. Nine of the top 10 recipients of industry donations are Republicans, including Representative Patrick McHenry who is likely to chair the House finance panel if Republicans win that chamber.
Bush stored documents at a former bowling alley turned Chinese restaurant. Trump said many other presidents stored millions of pages of documents in warehouses, "some of them without front doors that worked." Bush, "took millions and millions of documents to a former bowling alley pieced together with what was then an old and broken Chinese restaurant. Michael Cohen, a former lawyer for Trump, recently said the former president held onto documents for his own personal gain. Representatives for the George and Barbara Bush Foundation and Trump did not respond to Insider's request for comment.
Raphael Warnock called out Herschel Walker after a campaign appearance on Friday, per the AJC. Warnock said that Walker's campaign tumult centered on abortion shows "a disturbing pattern." We've seen a disturbing pattern, and it raises real questions about who is actually ready to represent the people of Georgia," Warnock said of Walker. Georgia Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker. He alluded to what he depicted as a Democratic-led smear campaign during a Thursday press coverage in Georgia.
Flash-forward to today, at the peak of the midterm elections’ race, and the political landscape around reproductive freedom and abortion rights has massively shifted. The Supreme Court’s stunning decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June swept away abortion rights, allowing the GOP to start making good on the draconian abortion measures they’ve long been cheerleading. And those voters are increasingly in the abortion rights camp. ​​According to Gallup, women support abortion rights by a nearly 30-point margin. President Bill Clinton preferred to discuss abortion as “safe, legal and rare,” a catchphrase that many Democrats adopted later.
A seemingly dormant Mehmet Oz campaign has struggled to unify the MAGA base in Pennsylvania. "Since Dr. Oz's victory remarks on June 9th, he has been to over 75 events," Oz campaign spokesperson Brittany Yanick told Insider in a statement. The Oz campaign would not say when it has plans to launch new TV ads. The Vance campaign responded to Insider's request for comment by attacking Rep. Tim Ryan. "It's why Democrats have a chance of holding onto the Senate," he told Insider, "is just the horrible class of candidates they've nominated."
Subalternii săi au descris starea de spirit a președintelui din ultimele zile – Trump este furios și izolat la Casa Albă. Va efectua mai multe convorbiri telefonice și va avea mai multe întâlniri”, se arată în programul oficial al președintelui SUA. El spune că administrația sa a „restabilit puterea americană în țară și leadershipul american în străinătate” și „a construit cea mai mare economie din istoria lumii”. „Ca urmare a diplomației noastre îndrăznețe și a realismului bazat pe principii, am realizat o serie de acorduri istorice de pace în Orientul Mijlociu. El adaugă că este „foarte mândru” că a fost primul președinte din ultimele decenii care „nu a început noi războaie”.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Președintele Trump, SUA . Trump, Biden, Mike Pence, Gallup, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: Congresul, Albă, CNN, Pew Research Locations: Congresul american, american, Hill, Florida, Washington, SUA, Capitoliu, străinătate, Statele Unite, Chinei, Orientul Mijlociu, Orient Mijlociu
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