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☆ The biggest takeaway from Bank of America's earnings, and what it means for the broader stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. There has been no net downside since June 16 even with yields higher, earnings expectations slipping and recession anticipation becoming entrenched. And the S & P has not even bounced back to Friday morning's high at this point, so it could be simply a bit more noisy, untrustworthy action. This market has many issues, but the valuation of the typical stock is no longer one of the top ones. Here we see year-ahead P/E ratios for the S & P 500, equal-weighted S & P 500 (back near late-2018 lows) and S & P 600 Small Cap (near Covid crash low).

☆ The Fed will be more aggressive with rate hikes into early 2023 after September's inflation shock, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It projects the Fed to raise rates by 75 basis points in December and by 50 basis points in February 2023. For the first meeting of 2023, Barclays foresees a rate hike of 50 basis points, up from its past forecast of 25 basis points. Put together, that would propel the fed funds rate to a range of 5% to 5.25% in February. After the September inflation report, investors believe the odds of a 75-basis-point rate hike at the December Fed meeting have doubled. The Fed is expected on November 1-2 to deliver its fourth straight rate hike of 75 basis points and its sixth increase of 2022.

Chartbook: Europe gas prices and storageMAXIMUM STORAGEInventories in the European Union and the United Kingdom (EU28) have climbed to 1,029 terawatt-hours (TWh), according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are +110 TWh (+12% or +1.0 standard deviations) above the seasonal average for the previous ten years ("Aggregated gas storage inventory", GIE, Oct. 13). STILL NOT ENOUGHThe combination of falling nearby prices with firming prices later in the winter and the rest of 2023 highlights the limitations of Europe's storage system. In that case, the market will still need much higher prices or some form of physical rationing to conserve stocks later in the winter. Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)- Europe tops up gas stocks, but winter demand cuts essential (Reuters, Sept. 7)- EU prepares public opinion for winter gas siege (Reuters, July 27)- Europe forced to pay even higher prices to fill gas storage (Reuters, July 5)- Europe fills gas storage at record rate as Asia's buyers step aside (Reuters, May 17)- Europe makes rapid start on refilling gas storage (Reuters, May 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ The biggest threat to UPS and FedEx isn't Amazon. It's the gig economy.
▼ + stars: | 2021-04-27 | by ( Emma Cosgrove | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Target's new delivery strategy shows FedEx and UPS are being disrupted by the gig economy. Top analysts see gig startups taking volume from UPS and FedEx. Gig delivery is leveling upOne gig driver delivering one order at a time isn't much of a competitive threat to the way UPS and FedEx move goods. Beyond same-day service, gig startups often offer live tracking and text updates for each order. On UPS' first quarter earnings call Tuesday, UPS CEO Carol Tomé acknowledged that gig logistics companies are competitors of UPS.

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