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☆ Trump's pledge to deport the most US workers in history could trigger recession and an inflation spike, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Trump's vows to carry out a major deportation campaign is a stagflationary threat, Adam Posen told Bloomberg TV. Adding to inflation risk are also Trump's trade proposals, as he pledges to lift tariffs. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementDonald Trump's vow to initiate the country's biggest deportation campaign is a massive stagflationary hazard, risking an economic downturn amid even tighter monetary policy, one think-tank economist said. At the same time, he's also pledged to deport all undocumented workers from the US, which total 7.5 million people, Posen said.

Persons: Trump's, Adam Posen, —, Donald Trump's, Trump, he's Organizations: Bloomberg TV, Service, Republican, Peterson, Business Locations: Posen

☆ New US sanctions take aim at Iran's 'sprawling' network of shadow banks fueling Russian and Houthi operations
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US Treasury sanctioned nearly 50 entities tied to an Iranian shadow-banking network. The Treasury says these firms conceal revenue used by Iran's military to support Houthi and Russian operations. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIran's "sprawling" shadow-banking network has fallen into the crosshairs of the US Treasury Department, which sanctioned close to 50 entities and individuals tied to these lenders. In a Tuesday announcement, the department described a web of exchange houses and foreign cover companies that are concealing revenue gained by Iran's military, as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Persons: — Organizations: US Treasury, Treasury, Service, US Treasury Department, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Business Locations: Iranian, Iran, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Why the world is barreling towards a 'food war,' according to one commodity trader
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Food wars will rise amid trade barriers and climate risk, Olam Agri's CEO warned. Advertisement"Food wars" are looming over global stability, as trade barriers and the climate crisis strain supply, the head of trading firm Olam Agri warned. We will fight bigger wars over food and water," he said during last week's Redburn Atlantic and Rothschild consumer conference. Though agricultural commodity traders took the blame for rising food costs after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the CEO pushed back. Instead, the outbreak of non-tariff trade barriers was likely the chief culprit, with 1,266 curbs proliferating that year.

Persons: —, Sunny Verghese Organizations: Service, The Financial Times, Rothschild Locations: Ukraine

☆ Stock market today: US indexes rebound as Nvidia's revival sets off a tech rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Nvidia stock reversed a three-day drop, boosting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAn end to Nvidia's rout brought new life to the stock market on Tuesday, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq churning higher in the session. Investors are keeping watch for Friday's personal consumption expenditures release, which will help determine US inflation and future monetary policy.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, there's, —, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Financial, Investors, Federal Reserve Locations: Here's

☆ Stocks are looking 'eerily similar' to the last bear-market crash, Charles Schwab says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Market dynamics mirror 2021, potentially signaling a bear market on the way, Charles Schwab said. There's a growing divergence between index-level and individual stock performanceThe number of individual stocks reaching new highs is falling, despite the market's bull run. AdvertisementCurrent stock market dimensions are starting to mirror 2021, a year that preceded the most recent bear market correction, Charles Schwab wrote this week. In its latest commentary, the bank took aim at the growing misalignment between index-level and individual stock performance. At the same time, the number of individual names reaching fresh lows is at bear market levels, the note added.

Persons: Charles Schwab, —, Liz Ann Sonders, Ann Sonders, Schwab, General Electric … Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Utilities, General Electric Locations: Technology

☆ A labor slowdown could ruin America's soft-landing hopes and cause a 10% stock correction, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A weakening jobs market could trigger a 10% stock correction, says Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson. He told Bloomberg that if non-farm payrolls fall under 100,000, it could break the soft-landing narrative. AdvertisementThe job market could make or break stocks, with any sudden weakness possibly triggering a meaningful correction, Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson told Bloomberg TV. Mike Wilson said. For this reason, current market highs make sense, he told Bloomberg, as investors load in on quality on growth trades.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, — Organizations: Bloomberg, Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as traders try to recover from Nvidia-fueled sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US indexes climbed as Nvidia reversed a three-day sell-offNvidia's stock fell nearly 17%, offering long investors opportunity to buy in. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS indexes moved mostly higher Tuesday morning, with investors looking to reverse the Nvidia-led drop. AdvertisementThis week, investors are also keeping track of Federal Reserve commentary from a roster of officials scheduled to speak, as well as the personal consumption expenditures data scheduled for Friday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement

Persons: Michelle Bowman, —, David Morrison Organizations: Nvidia, Fed, Service, Trade Nation, Federal Locations: Nvidia's

☆ Texas natural-gas prices turn negative despite soaring heatwave temperatures
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Natural-gas prices in Texas have dropped into negative territory. AdvertisementNatural-gas prices in Texas have slipped into negative territory even amid a heat advisory for parts of the state, Reuters reported. AdvertisementTaking this infrastructure offline can lead to trapped natural gas, momentarily boosting supply. According to traders that spoke with Reuters, other reasons may have contributed to the negative price slide as well. This is the 18th time this year that Texas natural gas price have entered negative territory, the outlet said.

Persons: —, it's, Kinder Morgan, Fortune Organizations: Service, Reuters, Natural Gas Pipeline, West South Central, Energy Information Administration Locations: Texas, America

☆ Why America's housing-affordability crisis will continue through at least 2026, according to BofA
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Prices will edge up over the next two years, Bank of America said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe pandemic-era housing boom hasn't worn off and should keep price momentum going until at least 2026, Bank of America said. The bank wrote on Monday that the US housing market will appreciate 4.5% and 5% this year and next. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Business

☆ What rate cut? The Fed's next move could be a hike if inflation stays stubbornly high, legendary investor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A rebound in inflation risks prompting another rate hike from the Fed, Rob Arnott told Bloomberg TV. The Fed's projected 25-basis point rate cut won't be enough to stimulate the economy, he noted. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The legendary investor is forecasting that inflation will be 3.5%-5% by the end of the year, he told Bloomberg TV.

Persons: Rob Arnott, — Organizations: Fed, Bloomberg, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg TV, Research, Business

☆ An overload of warning signals mark the 'last straw' that could send the S&P 500 plunging 70%, famed permabear says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A high concentration of warning signals suggest a major market correction ahead, John Hussman said. AdvertisementA growing tally of ringing market alarms suggest the S&P 500 has at last reached its speculative peak, permabear John Hussman wrote on Monday. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up significantly over the period.

Persons: John Hussman, —, Hussman Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment, Dow

☆ Used-EV prices are crashing as buyers shift back towards hybrid vehicles
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Used EVs now cost less than their gas counterparts, with the gap ballooning since February. AdvertisementConsumers are pumping the brakes on electric-vehicle demand as technological limitations erase the premium buyers used to be willing to pay. For the first time, used EVs are less expensive than their traditional gas counterparts. Not only are prices lower, they're also plummeting at a much steeper clip, a recent report from iSeeCars said. According to the study, the average used EV fell $265 below the typical gas car in February, marking the trend's start.

Persons: they're, —, iSeeCars Organizations: Service, Business

☆ China's yuan will take over as Russia's main trade currency 'once and for all' as US sanctions get tighter, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The latest batch of US sanctions against Russia will promote further use of the yuan, a think tank said. It argued that as ruble volatility increases, the Chinese currency will offer stability. While sanctions also threaten Chinese entities, they won't be enough to disrupt yuan trading, it said. AdvertisementFresh sanctions on Russia are too late to be a game-changer, but they will help cement the role of China's yuan in place of Western currencies, a think tank said. "In May, its share in exchange trading once again hit a new record, reaching 53.6 percent.

Persons: —, Alexandra Prokopenko, Prokopenko Organizations: Russia, Service, Carnegie, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Kremlin Locations: Russia, Carnegie Russia, Moscow, Beijing, Kazakhstan, UAE

☆ The creator of a famed recession indicator says the Fed is 'playing with fire' by not cutting rates now
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates in the near term is a risky gamble that could drive the US towards a recession, Claudia Sahm told CNBC. "But it's a real risk, and I do not understand why the Fed is pushing that risk. At current readings, that likely means just one rate cut in 2024, the Fed said. For this reason, Sahm told CNBC that the Fed should start a gradual cutting cycle now, and take the economy off a path that could require more severe action if not addressed. Markets, meanwhile, remain convinced that the Fed will follow with more than just one cut.

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, I'm, Sahm, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, CNBC, Business

☆ How a Saudi pullback from a landmark US deal is bad news for dollar dominance
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Saudi Arabia has not renewed a deal that ensures the use of US dollars in the oil trade. The end of this "petrodollar" agreement will dent dollar dominance, the Atlantic Council wrote. This month, Saudi Arabia did not renew a 1974 accord that mandates the exclusive use of greenbacks when selling its crude oil. What's more, US dependence on Saudi oil has slid considerably, given a historic explosion in US domestic production. "China has become Saudi Arabia's largest oil customer, accounting for more than 20% of the kingdom's oil exports.

Persons: —, nonresident, Hung Tran, Tran, What's Organizations: Atlantic Council, Service, Saudi Locations: Saudi Arabia, Europe, American, China, Saudi, Beijing, Riyadh

☆ Vanishing short-sellers have helped push stocks to record highs. But beware a sharp negative reversal, JPMorgan says.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Short bets against funds that track major US indexes have declined to record lows, JPMorgan said. As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have hit a streak of record highs this year, short interest in funds that track the indexes has dropped, the bank said. AdvertisementFirst, short bets are expensive to maintain when a stock or fund is climbing, a risk that's especially relevant in today's bull run. Second, regulators have added restraints to short selling, by mandating transparency and adding costs to short sellers that target equities, JPMorgan said. According to JPMorgan, short positions are also disappearing from individual stocks, with a clear decline in the top seven leading equities.

Persons: —, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Jim Chanos Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Nasdaq

☆ These 4 US regions will see electricity bills increase the most this summer
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The average monthly US electricity bill this summer will be 3% higher than last year, the EIA says. AdvertisementThe possibility of a warmer-than-typical summer will make energy prices higher, the US Energy Information Administration said in a new report. The EIA finds that the average US electricity bill from June through August will be $173, a 3% climb over last year. The biggest dollar-amount increase will be seen in Mid-Atlantic states, where the average bill will rise by $14, the EIA said. In September, a Texas heat wave sent spot electricity prices up 20,000% and caused the state's grid operator to issue an emergency.

Persons: —, it's Organizations: EIA, Service, US Energy Information Administration, East South Central, East, Energy Information Administration, Utilities, West South Central, West Locations: New England, Pacific, East, East North Central, America, West South Central, Texas

☆ Why America's housing shortage is getting worse, even as construction sees its biggest boom in 16 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US housing construction is the strongest it's been since 2007, with 1.45 million homes added in 2023. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS housing construction just notched its best year since the great financial crisis, but it hasn't been enough to ease America's home shortage, Zillow reported on Tuesday. According to the real estate firm, 1.4 million homes were added two years ago, reaching a high not seen since 2007. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: — Organizations: Austin, Service, Business Locations: California, Seattle

☆ America's 'cardboard-box recession' is finally over, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The cardboard box recession is ending, as packaging prices climb, Bank of America says. This recession indicator flashed last year when demand for packaging fell to 2009 lows. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPackaging prices are poised for a rebound, spelling the end for America's cardboard box recession, Bank of America said. When last year's demand for cardboard packaging dropped to 2009 lows, analysts feared it meant a major consumer spending pullback.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Business

☆ BlackRock says inflation could be an unwelcome side effect of the AI-driven productivity boom
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Capital spending on AI data centers could bring back inflation before boosting economy, BlackRock said. In the short term, AI winners will drive returns up for six to 12 months. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "Capital spending on AI data centers has boomed since last year's ChatGPT moment," analysts led by Jean Boivin wrote on Monday.

Persons: —, Jean Boivin Organizations: BlackRock, Service, Business

☆ The Fed could tip the US into recession if it waits too long to cut rates, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed should not keep waiting to cut rates, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in the Financial Times. He said such a delay could eventually prompt an aggressive cutting cycle, increasing recession risk. El-Erian compares it to when the Fed insisted on not raising rates in 2021, but then had to sharply tighten. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's holdup in cutting interest rates may be putting the US economy in jeopardy, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in an op-ed for the Financial Times.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, — Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Fed, Business

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as traders assess weak May retail sales data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Weak retail sales data on Tuesday sent bond yields lowersMonth-to-month sales rose 0.1%, below estimates. Stocks rose as investors assessed the data's impact on rate cut forecasts. AdvertisementUS stocks edged up on Tuesday after retail sales data for May came in weaker than expected, sending Treasury yields lower. US consumers appeared to cut back last month, with month-over-month sales rising 0.1% in May, below estimates. AdvertisementHere's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:Here's what else happened today:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:

Persons: Stocks, —, Quincy Krosby, Powell Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Federal, LPL, Fed, Here's

☆ Shadowy middlemen are giving Russia access to old Western tech left over in countries like China and Turkey
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Russia is securing second-hand production tech sought after by its defense industry, a think tank reported. Opaque firms in countries such as Turkey and China are helping deliver it to Russian contractors. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementDespite the West's campaign to cut Moscow's war economy off from needed equipment, a network of obscure firms are helping Russia secure essential technology, a think tank reported.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Center for Advanced Defense Studies, Kremlin, Business Locations: Russia, Turkey, China, South Korea

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 closes at fresh record high as Nvidia becomes world's biggest company
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Nvidia is now the world's most valued company, overtaking Microsoft on Tuesday. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe S&P 500 hit another fresh record on Tuesday, as a semiconductor rally crowned Nvidia the world's most valued company. May's retail sales data came in below expectations, indicating consumers are pulling back spending.

Persons: —, Jeffrey Roach, Quicy Krosby Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, Treasury, Service, Qualcomm, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron Technology, Financial, Federal, Fed, Here's

☆ Microsoft stock will surge 24% amid a 'tidal wave' of AI-monetization opportunities, Wedbush says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Microsoft stock is set to hit $550 on AI monetization opportunities, Wedbush Securities said. Client checks revealed growing bullishness towards Microsoft's AI Copilot software. AdvertisementArtificial intelligence deal conversions are accelerating, priming shares of Microsoft to reach even higher records, Wedbush Securities said. Behind the call were increasingly bullish customer checks, Wedbush Securities said, driven by "a tidal wave of Copilot and Azure monetization now on the doorstep for MSFT." Growth in Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, has boomed in recent quarters, and could be a bridge into more AI spending, Ives wrote.

Persons: —, Redmond, Dan Ives, Ives, Wedbush Organizations: Microsoft, Wedbush Securities, Service, Nadella, Oracle, IBM, Nvidia, Apple

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