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☆ American consumers are growing worried about a US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

“If policymakers fail to resolve the debt ceiling crisis, these dismal views over the economy will exacerbate the dire economic consequences of default.”The latest survey showed that the university’s consumer-sentiment index fell by 9% in May. Monthly household spending growth tumbled to 5.4% from a revised 7.1% in December, according to the New York Fed’s Household Spending Survey, which is fielded every four months. Michigan’s report showed US household spending was flat in March from the prior month, after limping just 0.1% in February. Stack on top of that the Federal Reserve’s punishing interest-rate increases and still-high inflation, and consumers might just tap out. The Conference Board’s sentiment survey showed that consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans became more worried about the jobs market.

☆ Fed's John Williams says rates could be increased if inflation doesn't come down
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

John Williams, Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks at an event in New York, November 6, 2019. The committee removed a key phrase from the statement that had indicated additional rate hikes would be appropriate. "I do not see in my baseline forecast, any reason to cut interest rates this year," he said, adding that additional rate hikes would be possible if the data doesn't cooperate. The current problems in the banking industry and their impact will factor into Williams' policy outlook, he said. "I will be particularly focused on assessing the evolution of credit conditions and their effects on the outlook for growth, employment and inflation," Williams said.

☆ US consumers' inflation expectations mixed in April, NY Fed report shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FILE PHOTO: People walk outside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 18, 2020. The regional Fed bank reported as part of its April Survey of Consumer Expectations that respondents see inflation one year from now at 4.4%, down from 4.7% in the March survey. The Fed has been pressing forward aggressively with interest rate rises to lower some of the highest inflation pressures in decades. The U.S. central bank raised rates last week in an action that may be the last of its current tightening campaign, as inflation pressures have started to ease. Survey respondents also said they expect higher unemployment and a greater probability of losing their jobs, as well as a harder time finding new work.

☆ Fed survey: Banks are tightening up their lending standards after rate hikes, turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Survey respondents attributed the changes in lending standards to economic uncertainty, a reduced appetite for risk, deterioration in collateral values and broader concerns about banks’ funding costs and liquidity positions, according to the Fed report. At the time, banks expected that trend of tightening credit, waning demand and deteriorating loan quality would continue. Fed president: Central bank should weigh effectsFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview with Yahoo! Fed officials, including Chair Powell, have previously noted that credit tightening could act similarly to a rate hike. A ‘salient risk’Separately on Monday, the Fed released its semi-annual Financial Stability Report, which assesses the resilience of the US financial system.

☆ Talk of banning short sales is suddenly in the air, but history argues against it
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

It's just a hop, skip and a jump away from the obvious conclusion: ban short sellers! There are already rules to prevent violation of short selling rules Fortunately, the SEC has not (at least yet) jumped on this bandwagon. Gensler, however, has made it clear he is looking out for bad actors who may be violating existing laws on short selling. For example, there are rules that prohibit naked short selling , the practice of short selling shares that haven't first been borrowed. When short selling is banned, traders who want to buy stock but need to hedge their risk will be hesitant to do so."

"My belief is that we don't get inflation down to 2% without a recession," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. As the economy fluctuates, experts say there are several key risk areas that consumers may want to keep an eye on. That still leaves about 1.6 open jobs to every available worker, which is "very good," according to Andy Challenger, senior vice president at outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Pricey car loan 'quickly becomes untenable'Auto loan delinquencies are already rising, particularly for borrowers with weaker credit profiles, McBride noted. In 2022, consumers paid $133.1 billion in credit card interest and fees, a 23.1% increase from the estimated $108.1 billion they paid in 2021.

☆ Why Prices, Inflation Are Still Soaring: Corporate Price Gouging
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

While many of the problems that helped trigger the upward spiral have abated, prices are still high and getting higher. The idea that companies are taking advantage of disruptions to push price increases on consumers has many names — greedflation, excuseflation, price gouging, corporate profiteering — but the gist is the same. Supply-chain issues and other disruptions made sense as drivers of higher prices, Chris Becker, a senior economist and the associate director of policy and research at the Groundwork Collaborative, told me. "Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge." Working people are suffering thanks to corporate greed, so we need to enact tougher rules to ensure corporations pay a price when they price gouge.

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A real estate investment fund recently defaulted on $750 million of mortgages for two Los Angeles skyscrapers. And a big New York landlord is trying to extend the deadline for paying down a loan for a Park Avenue office tower. Office districts in nearly every U.S. city have been under great stress since the pandemic emptied workplaces and made working from home common. But in recent months, the crisis has entered a tense phase that could damage local economies and cause financial hits to real estate investors and scores of banks. Lenders are increasingly reluctant to make new loans to owners of office buildings, especially after the collapse of two banks last month.

☆ Here’s How Supply Chains Are Being Reshaped for a New Era of Global Trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Paul Page | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A robot moves products manufactured by Nestlé at a distribution warehouse operated by GXO Logistics near Derby, England. Photo: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg NewsWhen a measure of strains on global supply chains fell earlier this year to levels last seen before the Covid-19 pandemic, it signaled to some that the product shortages, port bottlenecks and shipping disruptions of the past three years were over and that a new era of stability was on the horizon. But industry experts say a “return to normal,” as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York described its Global Supply Chain Pressure Index in February, hardly means that companies are going back to conventional, some would say complacent, supply chains.

☆ Opinion | No One Knows the Value of a College Degree Like Someone Without One
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Christopher Zara | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

The good news is, future job searches may not always be as bleak as mine have been. to Delta Air Lines are dropping college degree requirements for many roles, focusing instead on “skills-based hiring,” a philosophy that emphasizes people over pedigrees. Consider the ever-persistent education wage gap, which has been widening for decades and by some measures got even worse during the past few years. Can we be so surprised that the media presents an incomplete picture about higher education when so few journalists navigate the working world without a four-year degree? One 2022 survey conducted by Morning Consult found that even though 72 percent of employers said they didn’t believe a college degree was a great indicator of a person’s skills, more than half still hired candidates from degree programs anyway because they saw doing so as a “less risky choice.”

☆ NY Fed limits types of firms that can access its reverse repo facility
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Accessing the reverse repo facility “should be a natural extension of an existing business model, and the counterparty should not be organized for the purpose of accessing [reverse repo] operations,” the bank said. The New York Fed did not say in its statement what prompted it to clarify the terms of access for reverse repo counterparties. The last time the Fed issued a statement on the reverse repo tool was two years ago, when it clarified some of the conditions a firm must meet to use the reverse repo tool. The reverse repo facility, now at 4.8%, sets the low end of the range. Fed officials have long argued that as they raise rates and normalize monetary policy, they expect money to drain out of the reverse repo facility.

☆ Supply Chains Have Changed Forever
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Paul Page | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

☆ Young remote workers are missing out on crucial IRL feedback from colleagues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Tim Paradis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

For young workers, not being in an office can mean they don't get as much feedback from colleagues. The pushback against remote work comes as more CEOs have been calling workers back to the office. But workers — especially those taking care of kids or others — grew accustomed to the flexibility that remote work can afford. Despite the risks, many of those potentially in danger of missing out on professional growth are most in favor of remote work, according to surveys, the Times noted. And some companies that have embraced remote work report success.

☆ Asian stocks ease, dollar subdued as investors tread with caution
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.16% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was up 0.07%. China's blue-chip CSI 300 Index (.CSI300) was down 0.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) eased 0.22%. Traders are bracing for meetings from central banks in the next few weeks as easing worries over the banking sector brings inflation and monetary policy back into focus. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.039%, with the euro up 0.04% to $1.0958. The yen weakened 0.08% to 134.83 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2432, down 0.05% on the day.

☆ Fed's Williams: Inflation still 'too high,' Fed will act to lower it
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

“Inflation is still too high, and we will use our monetary policy tools to restore price stability,” Williams said in prepared remarks for delivery before a gathering held by the Money Marketeers of New York University. Williams, who also serves as vice-chairman of the rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, did not comment on his personal view of what’s next for monetary policy, but he did note that central bank forecasts released recently flagged the prospect of more monetary policy tightening to help lower inflation. In his remarks, Williams said that the banking sector stress that started last month and has resulted in extensive Fed emergency lending to banks seems to be cooling off. “Conditions in the banking sector have stabilized, and the banking system is sound and resilient,” Williams said. The central banker noted in his speech that while inflation is high it has been cooling.

SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher on Monday after the April survey of business activity in New York state rose for the first time in five months and bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in May. The new orders index rose 47 points to 25.1, while the shipments index added 37 points to 23.9, substantial increases after they had declined in recent months, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. "It's the best reading since last July with a big jump in orders and has taken the dollar higher on this," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. The outlook of U.S. interest rates relative to the monetary policies and economies of other countries can boost or erode the dollar's value. The Mexican peso lost 0.51% versus the dollar to trade at 18.12, while the Canadian dollar fell 0.31% versus the greenback to 1.34 per dollar.

☆ Cash stuffing budgets are all the rage right now. 2 women explain their polar-opposite experiences.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But then she decided to try "cash stuffing," a budgeting trend she'd heard about on YouTube two months earlier. Cash stuffing involves using envelopes to divide up cash for rent, groceries, gas, and other things. Vera KentCash stuffing isn't a good fit for everyoneNot everyone is a huge fan of cash stuffing, however. The video took off, racking up over 166,000 views, but Kent said she didn't take to cash stuffing and quit only three weeks after she started. Have you tried cash stuffing and are willing to share your story?

☆ A millennial tried out the TikTok-famous cash stuffing budget method — and said it helped her pay off a $19,000 car loan ahead of schedule
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Cash stuffing involves putting cash in labeled envelopes to help people track their spending. Berenice Rodriguez, 29, said cash stuffing helped her pay off debt while saving for a house. She said she does this to hold herself accountable and motivate others to give cash stuffing a try. Berenice RodriguezHow cash stuffing worksWhile Rodriguez attributed much of her financial improvement to cash stuffing, she said the journey hadn't been easy. "At the end of the day, cash stuffing is a tool to get you to your goals," she said.

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☆ Gold advances on softer dollar as traders await U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A mark of 999.9 fine sits on hallmarked one kilogram gold bullion bars at the Valcambi SA precious metal refinery in Lugano, Switzerland, on April 24, 2018. Gold prices gained on Tuesday after falling over 1% in the previous session, as the dollar eased ahead of key U.S. inflation data. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,013.30. The opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are raised to bring down inflation. Data on Tuesday showed top bullion consumer China's March consumer inflation hit the slowest pace since September 2021 and suggested demand weakness persisted amid an uneven economic recovery.

☆ Gold advances on softer dollar as traders await US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,012.30. Traders are now focussing on the U.S. consumer price data due Wednesday for more clarity on the path of rates heading into the Fed's May policy meeting. The opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion rises when interest rates are increased to bring down inflation. "Near-term, there are also bearish technical setups for a corrective move lower" in gold prices, OCBC's Wong added. Data on Tuesday showed top bullion consumer China's March consumer inflation hit the slowest pace since September 2021 and suggested demand weakness persisted amid an uneven economic recovery.

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street has found something else to worry about
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Retail investors are buying bank stocksTD Ameritrade released its March Investor Movement Index on Monday, which tracks what retail investors are up to. Lately, large companies have begun to change their investor relations strategies to become more retail investor friendly. “March was full of surprises, but the overall impact among TD Ameritrade retail clients when it came to exposure to the markets was neutral,” said Lorraine Gavican-Kerr, managing director at TD Ameritrade. Retail investors, meanwhile, were net sellers of Meta, NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devises, Intel and Apple. Inflation expectations for the year ahead have increased by half a percentage point to 4.7%, the survey found.

☆ Fed's Williams doubts monetary policy spiked banking sector stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The banking sector stress drove the Fed to provide substantial amounts of liquidity to the financial system, even as officials have stressed repeatedly that by and large the banking system is safe and sound and abounding with liquidity. Williams said he viewed the trouble at the two banks as unique in nature and unlikely to reflect broader trends in the financial system. That said, Fed officials have said that banking sector stress will likely weigh on the economy, as financial firms pull back on lending. Williams said that he also sees a gradual rise over time in unemployment from the current low 3.5% to between 4% and 4.5%. Williams said he is not concerned by market expectations of rate cuts even though the Fed currently has penciled in an additional rate rise this year.

☆ Consumers feel credit getting harder to come by, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —US consumers are starting to feel that credit is getting harder to come by, according to survey results released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. For the first time since October, US consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations increased. Near-term inflation expectations increased 0.52 percentage points to 4.7%, according to the New York Fed’s March 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations. It’s the largest jump in one-year inflation expectations since March of last year. The Fed closely watches measurements of inflation expectations.

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