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Wells Fargo now says it pegs the odds of a recession at 40% in 2024. The Blue Chip Economic survey released last week echoed the bonhomie. More than two-thirds, 69%, of small business and 67% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism about their company’s performance. This week, members of Congress will learn the details and begin signaling whether the plan has the support of both houses. Meanwhile, in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world’s leaders, business executives and others have gathered for the World Economic Forum’s 54th meeting, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a bullish speech on China’s economic prospects.

Persons: –, Wells, “, ”, Wells Fargo, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard, JPMorgan Chase, Li Qiang Organizations: Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, University of Michigan, Wells, Investment Banking, JPMorgan, Capitol Locations: U.S, Davos, Switzerland

☆ Americans are pulling back on their spending, but debt remains top of mind
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations Household Spending Survey, which is released every four months, also showed that households expect to spend less in the year ahead. The most recent reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is trending closer to the pre-pandemic reading of 2.4%. Survey respondents said they expected to spend less on everyday essential spending. The spending has kept the economy churning, but it’s also potentially coming at a cost: Americans have relied heavily on debt to make their purchases. As of December 2023, respondents said they’d allocate 38.4% of the unexpected income gain toward paying down debt.

Persons: it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

In December, the policymakers collectively forecast that they would cut their rate three times this year. The Fed prefers for inflation to be about 2%, which it sees as having little negative effect on the economy. Fed officials, he added, will want to see further evidence that inflation is still on track to 2% before embarking on rate cuts. Before Waller spoke, Wall Street investors had placed a 72% likelihood of a rate cut in March, based on futures prices. Waller's comments followed similarly optimistic remarks from John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, last week.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ”, ” Waller, Waller, Krishna Guha, Waller's, ” Guha, John Williams, Williams, Powell's, ” Williams Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Fed's, of Governors, Fed, Wall Street, Brookings Institution, “, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Opinion | Is the Fed Falling Prey to Groupthink?
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

If you’re looking to argue that the Fed suffers from too much unanimity, the inflationary surge of 2022 looks like evidence. In speeches, various members of the committee had been expressing concerns about inflation, but they weren’t voting that way. She worked at the Fed for 25 years in stints between 1984 and 2022, including one writing up the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Meade said one reason dissents are few is that “the meetings aren’t about today, they’re about tomorrow.” Committee meetings occur eight times a year. If a voter feels uncomfortable with the (unanimous) rate decision, that person will try to rally support for a different path at future meetings.

Persons: James Bullard, Louis, Ellen Meade, “, ” Meade, Levin, Meade Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Duke University, Fed, Open

☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI

☆ Americans are missing credit card payments at the highest rate in a decade
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

As of September, US credit-card delinquency rates were at the highest rate in a decade. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said 3.2% of card balances were at least 30 days past due. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In the second quarter of 2021, credit card delinquency rates were at historic lows.

Persons: — Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Service, Philadelphia, Business

☆ Credit card delinquencies surpass pre-pandemic levels
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —More Americans are buckling under the weight of mounting credit card debt. The Philadelphia Fed analyzed consumer credit card and mortgage data that large banks provide to the Federal Reserve on a quarterly basis. As such, a greater share of people are revolving all or part of their credit card balance. This nearly three-year stretch of high inflation and strong consumer spending has helped to send consumer debt — especially credit card balances — ballooning. It’s typically practical matters — that surprise medical bill, unexpected home or car repair, and day-to-day expenses — that get people into credit card debt, Rossman said.

Persons: New York CNN —, Gene Huang, Anna Veksler, “, Ted Rossman, Bankrate, Rossman, “ That’s, it’s, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia Fed, Federal Reserve, Philly Fed, CNN Business Locations: New York

☆ Consumer spending growth will slow in 2024, economist predicts — it’s ‘not necessarily sustainable’
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Consumer spending remained remarkably resilient throughout 2023, even in the face of prolonged inflation and high interest rates. "Nonetheless, those tailwinds are not necessarily sustainable," Kleinhenz said in the January issue of NRF's Monthly Economic Review, released Tuesday. Americans are racking up more 'phantom debt'56 million Americans have been in credit card debt for over a yearRecent reports already show signs of strain. In the last year, credit card debt spiked to a record high, surpassing $1.08 trillion, according to the latest quarterly report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Now, more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month and fewer are able to pay off their balances in full.

Persons: Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: National Retail Federation, Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ The 'phantom debt' of buy now, pay later is growing and will soon hit some Americans hard
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Buy now, pay later plans gained popularity in 2023 as an alternative to high-interest credit cards. Buy now, pay later use surged recently and those bills are now dueThe use of buy now, pay later plans skyrocketed during the 2023 holiday season. According to Adobe, which tracks online sales, buy now, pay later plans use was up 47% on Black Friday and 43% on Cyber Monday. According to PYMNTS' survey, 39.6% of respondents used buy now, pay later plans for clothing and accessories and 33.7% used them for groceries. Buy now, pay later debt can be advantageous if used correctly.

Persons: —, Rather, Peter Cade, PYMNTS, Tim Quinlan, Shannon Seery Grein, Selcuk, Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Maria Bartiromo, Luschini, Warren Buffett, Buffett, I've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Adobe, Household Economics, Science Research Network, Economic, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Wells, US Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ St. Louis Fed names former Tudor executive Alberto Musalem as new president
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Economist Alberto Musalem was named the next president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on Thursday. The St. Louis Fed representative is an alternate member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and will vote in 2025. St. Louis Fed First Vice President Kathy O'Neill has been holding the position in the interim. "Alberto will be an outstanding president and CEO of the St. Louis Fed," said St. Louis Fed director Carolyn Chism Hardy, president and CEO of Chism Hardy Investments and deputy chair of the bank's search committee. "I am deeply honored to serve as the next president of the St. Louis Fed and grateful for the opportunity to promote a strong, resilient and inclusive economy," Musalem said.

Persons: Alberto Musalem, Louis, Musalem, James Bullard, Kathy O'Neill, Alberto, Louis Fed, Carolyn Chism Hardy, Chism, Hardy, Paul Tudor Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of St, Purdue University, Louis Fed, Market, Investments, Evince Asset Management, New York Fed, Tudor Investment Corp, Eighth, CNBC PRO Locations: St

☆ I'm a Gen Zer who found my 9-to-5 soul crushing until work-from-home changed my life
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

I'm a Gen Zer who worked at my 9-to-5 before the pandemic, and found the schedule soul-crushing. The shift to remote work suddenly meant I had time to cook, exercise, and socialize. AdvertisementThere's been a whole lot of buzz recently about Gen Zers discovering the bleak realities of a 9-to-5 schedule. I graduated college in 2019, and went almost immediately into a 9-to-5 schedule. Like other Gen Zers, I enjoy getting face time with my coworkers, and, honestly, the free food.

Persons: Zer, —, There's, Zers, Herman Melville's, Scrivener, We've, Nick Bloom, Bloom, I'd, They're, It's, that's Organizations: Service, Business, University of West, Federal Reserve Bank of New, of Labor Statistics, Stanford University, Insider Locations: York City, University of West England, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, York

☆ Older Americans explain how they're spending their retirements working in the gig economy as Uber and Lyft drivers to make ends meet
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Some of these semi-retired workers are gig drivers for companies like Uber and DoorDash. Over half of the missing gig workers were aged 60 or older, and over 40% of them described themselves as "retired." Many of these semi-retired workers are gig drivers for companies like Uber and DoorDash. Business Insider previously spoke with six gig drivers about why they're driving during their retirement and the strategies they're using to make money. As her pay-per-ride declines and the cost of maintenance skyrockets, she's been forced to find other types of gig work.

Persons: Uber, —, boomers, didn't, Robert A, Peterson, John Fleming, Charles Rosenblatt, Jeff Hoenig, he'd, Jeff Hoenig Jeff Hoenig, Wesley Johnson, San Francisco Uber, Johnson, Omar Ford, Omar Ford Omar Ford Ford, he's, Germaine, she's, it's, Bill, Rich Organizations: Service, Hebrew University, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Survey, AARP, The University of Texas, Business, Hertz, Security, North Carolina, BI, Arizona Uber, Uber, Social Locations: Austin, Myrtle Beach , South Carolina, San Francisco, South Florida, New York City, Florida, North, Arizona

☆ The Fed could cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2024. Here are 7 quotes from central bankers that hint at what comes next.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024. AdvertisementWall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, CME's, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, ING, Barclays, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal

☆ The workplace is transforming because workers want good jobs, not just jobs
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Despite threats to job security such as layoffs, the rise of return-to-office mandates, and the prospect of artificial intelligence taking over jobs, workers have realized what's akin to letting a genie out of the bottle: Their jobs don't have to be just jobs. The push to make jobs back into careers, and good jobs, is just beginning. "And we've also seen just the massive gap between CEO salaries and frontline worker pay." Even so, there's been what Bruno called a "national consciousness raising" around what a quality job is. And thinking toward a future full of quality jobs is a message workers are taking to heart.

Persons: Ingrid Vilorio, She's, Vilorio, It's, Rob Bruno, Bruno, what's, —, Julie Su, Biden, Biden administration's, Su, there's, Zers —, Federal Reserve Banks, Keith Wardrip, Wardrip Organizations: University of Illinois, Workers, Treasury Department, Gallup, United Auto Workers, BI, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Locations: California, University of Illinois Urbana, Champaign, America, Philadelphia, Atlanta

☆ Carrying a credit card balance is costing you $1,140 per year — and is about to get much worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

However, credit card balances are especially worrisome because they are going to keep getting worse. That means the average American could be spending $1,140 every year on credit card interest and fees alone. Americans have been accruing a lot of credit card debt at a terrible timeAccording to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Americans had nearly $1.1 trillion in credit card debt in the third quarter of this year. Credit card interest rates, which had already been at their highest level since the mid-1990s, started soaring even higher. But with credit card debt going through the roof, the blissful spending could come to a screeching halt.

Persons: couldn't, —, Gary Coronado, LendingTree, Ted Rossman, Biden Organizations: Service, SoFi Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve Board, Fed, New York, New York Fed, Consumer Financial, CNN, Household Economics Locations: WalletHub, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delinquencies

☆ Underlying US inflation pressures eased in October, NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A man passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Underlying inflation pressures eased in October compared to the prior month, according to a report released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The bank said that its Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation reading for October stood at 2.6%, from September’s 2.88%. The NY Fed MCT index is designed to measure inflation persistence and how broadly price pressures are changing. The NY Fed MCT reading has tracked a broader retreat in price pressures.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Powell, Williams, Michael S, Mark Porter, Bill Berkrot Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, NY, New York Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, September’s

"We were an early adopter," said Morgan, who served as past president for Tennessee Jump$tart, an independent affiliate of the national Jump$tart Coalition for Personal Financial Literacy, which championed the policy. While financial literacy has long been a priority, the Covid-19 pandemic sparked a wave of state-level legislation nationwide, said Morgan, who also served on the board of the Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission. "The work is never done," said Bill Parker, director of the Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission, which aims to incorporate personal finance into schools "as early as possible." Bill Parker Director of the Tennessee Financial Literacy CommissionThe Commission has outlined priorities in its five-year strategic plan, which has included thought leadership and state-level advocacy for expanded financial literacy programming. Numerous studies have highlighted the benefits of teaching children financial literacy at an early age.

Persons: chris Ryan, Istock, Jackie Morgan, Morgan, We've, there's, Bill Parker, Parker Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's, Tennessee, Tennessee Financial Literacy, U.S, Finance, Council for Economic Education, Tennessee Financial Literacy Commission, Tennessee Financial Locations: —, Tennessee, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Nashville, U.S, , Tennessee

☆ These 16 states are already in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sixteen US states' economies contracted between July and October, according to the Philadelphia Fed. While some economists believe a recession may come in the next year, the economies of 33 states grew. Meanwhile, looking at just the past month, 27 states experienced economic contraction. AdvertisementThe economies of sixteen US states contracted between July and October, even as economists are still betting the US can avoid a recession. Looking at month-over-month rates, 27 states experienced economic contraction, while just 16 grew.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Ken Griffin Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Bureau of Economic, Citadel, Bloomberg Locations: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri , Illinois, Iowa, , Maryland, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Nevada and Wyoming . California, Florida, California, Florida , Pennsylvania , Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina

☆ Current policy rate lets Fed be 'nimble' with incoming data, Mester says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, speaks during an interview in Manhattan, New York, U.S., August 15, 2017. The central bank's rate policy will need to be "nimble" and "I believe the current level of the (federal) funds rate positions us well to do that." Mester, who will retire from the regional Fed bank next June, spoke two weeks ahead of the Fed's Dec. 12-13 policy meeting. That gathering is widely expected to result in no change in the current 5.25%-5.50% policy rate range. She noted that Fed rate hikes have tightened financial conditions and moderated demand at a time when supply chains have been healing.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Shannon Stapleton, Mester, Mester's, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, REUTERS, Cleveland Federal, Fed, Financial, FOMC, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, Chicago

The better your credit score, the better your interest rate on a car loan is likely to be. You should look at the monthly cost of the loan, but also the total cost long-term. Before applying for a car loan, it's crucial to check your credit score and take steps to improve it if necessary. It's important to leave room in your budget for unexpected expenses and to avoid becoming financially strained due to excessive car loan payments. A substantial down payment can work wonders in reducing the total cost of your car loan.

Persons: doesn't, — Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Quicken Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ The holiday spending spree is fueled by ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ shoppers
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —The Black Friday and Cyber Monday billion-dollar US spending spree was fueled by “Buy Now, Pay Later” shoppers. On Cyber Monday, Buy Now, Pay Later purchases hit an all-time high, up 43% from a year ago, according to Adobe Analytics. The number of items per order also rose 11% annually as shoppers used Buy Now, Pay Later for larger purchases. Consumers risk stacking on debt they can’t pay off with Buy Now, Pay Later purchases, financial researchers say. While Buy Now, Pay Later was initially designed to help shoppers pay for big-ticket purchases, consumers are increasingly using these services to buy groceries and everyday necessities, research shows.

Persons: CNN’s Alicia Wallace Organizations: New, New York CNN, Adobe Analytics, New York Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: New York

☆ Average homebuyers are beating out Wall Street landlords
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

The shutdowns of 2020 created a perfect storm for the housing market — and supercharged the clash between Wall Street and regular homebuyers. Given the attention these markets received during the pandemic, it's no wonder that the battle between Wall Street and Main Street became the dominant story of COVID-era homebuying. Advertisement"If Wall Street was really gobbling up Main Street," Sharga told me, "we would see homeownership rates go down." Wall Street landlords have also been increasingly selling off homes to regular people, a Business Insider analysis found. Still circlingWhile average homebuyers have staged a comeback over the past three years, Wall Street isn't ready to jump out of the housing market altogether.

Persons: homebuyers, That's, Wall, elbowed, Rick Sharga, CJ Patrick Company, they're, who've, Axios, Sharga, CoreLogic, Pretium —, John Voorheis, Voorheis, —, Freddie Mac, James Rodriguez Organizations: Rage, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Parcl Labs, Labs, National Association of Realtors, Wall Street, Investor, Wall, Tricon, Associates, Investors, Center for Economic Studies, Census Locations: Phoenix, Chicago, homebuilders, homeownership, Dallas, Charlotte, North Carolina, Atlanta

The economy was even hotter in the third quarter than initially believed, according to an update Wednesday from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Increased investment and government spending drove the higher estimate. in 3Q23, up from initial estimate of +4.9% … personal consumption revised lower while business investment revised higher,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, posted on social media. “Ultimately, excess savings accumulated during the pandemic helped boost consumer spending and delay the onset of recession,” BCA Research wrote on Wednesday. “However, the tailwind from excess savings is ebbing.

Persons: ann, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Consumers, Monday’s Organizations: Gross, BEA, “, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Research, San Francisco Fed, BCA, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: 3Q23, U.S

☆ Americans broke a record for spending on Black Friday, but it is just hiding a bigger problem for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Many are delaying the cost as buy now, pay later programs are expected to have their biggest month ever. Many are paying via "buy now, pay later" platforms such as Klarna or Afterpay, which let shoppers pay in installments every week or month. Buy now, pay later also allows people to borrow less expensively as they get the pricing interest-free if paid off in time. Indeed, the Fed's "2022 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking" found that 83% of respondents paid off their buy now, pay later programs on time. Compounding the problem is that people tend to spend more when using buy now, pay later programs, suggesting an overconfidence in what they can afford.

Persons: —, Salesforce, Beryl Tomay, Klarna, Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Maria Bartiromo, Luschini, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Kraig, Foreman Organizations: Black, Service, Adobe, Mastercard, CNBC, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Household Economics, Social Science Research Network, Wealth Management Locations: Landsberg

☆ The U.S. needs 'bipartisan' leadership and a 'strong middle' politically, Ray Dalio says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As the U.S. gears up for its next presidential election in 2024, the country needs a "strong middle" political ground and bipartisan cooperation, according to Ray Dalio, founder of investment company Bridgewater. "If you bring the sides together in a bipartisan way, and you create a strong middle, that's what the country needs in order to be healthy, I believe," Dalio said Tuesday in conversation with CNBC's Dan Murphy onstage at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week. Two things are crucial for the U.S. in this process, Dalio said: Firstly, he assesses that those with extreme political views should be alienated. Secondly, the country needs to "bring together the smart moderates to work together, and then to be able to make important reforms" to enable addressing issues such as the wealth gap. Dalio expects the emergence of an alternative candidate to Trump among Republicans, as the party narrows down its final choice.

Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, CNBC's Dan Murphy, Louis, Dalio's, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden Organizations: Bridgewater, Abu, Abu Dhabi Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Democratic, Republican, The New York Times, Siena College, Trump, Republicans Locations: U.S, Abu Dhabi

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