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☆ Fed's Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during the Stanford Business, Government and Society Forum at Stanford University on April 03, 2024 in Stanford, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent," he added. "Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected," Powell said. The uncertainty about rates has caused some consternation in markets, with stocks falling sharply earlier this week as Treasury yields moved higher.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Justin Sullivan, Powell, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, Cleveland's Loretta Mester Organizations: Bank, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Stanford University, Getty, Federal, Market, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Group Locations: Stanford , California

☆ Stock futures turn higher following third straight day of losses for the Dow: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 02, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures rose Wednesday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered its third straight losing session. Investors' fears that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher longer have weighed on stocks this week. The result trounced Dow Jones' estimate of 155,000 and spurred investors' fears that rates may indeed stay higher longer. "I don't think that the Fed really has any reason to cut rates.

Persons: Dow, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Dow Jones, Larry Tentarelli Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Federal, ADP, Treasury, Blue Locations: New York City . U.S, U.S

☆ S&P 500 futures are little changed Monday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 1, 2024. Futures tied to the S&P 500 were little changed Monday night after the broad market index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped to begin April. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each dipped lower by less than 0.1%. Futures tied to the 30-stock Dow slipped 118 points, or 0.3%, as shares of UnitedHealth fell. To conclude Monday's session, the Dow fell nearly 241 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 slid 0.2%.

Persons: Dow, UnitedHealth, David Miller, — Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Medicare, Services, Humana, CVS Health, Federal Reserve, Catalyst Capital Advisors, CNBC, Labor, Survey Locations: UnitedHealth

Mortgage rates have been elevated over the last couple of months. Thirty-year mortgage rates have averaged 6.50% in March, just two basis points below where they were in February. Forecasters at the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, the National Association of Realtors, and elsewhere have been predicting that mortgage rates will start trending lower soon. The sooner the Fed can start cutting rates, the sooner mortgage rates will start to fall. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: Fannie Mae, they've, you'll Organizations: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron

☆ 2 major market themes that could make or break stocks after this week's rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

That answered a big question going into the central bank's two-day March meeting following two months of hotter inflation readings. We hope to see that strength continue in the coming months as increasing supply would help keep housing inflation down. Following the company's last quarterly report, Jim Cramer said, "You cannot have a recession if Cintas is blowing the doors open." ET: PCE price index (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: Jim Cramer, JEF, HB Fuller, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Victor J Organizations: Dow, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, McCormick & Company, GameStop, Jefferies, Gross, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Visitors, New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S

☆ Weekly mortgage demand drops as interest rates rise again, but Fed announcement will be key for spring market
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-20 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Mortgage interest rates rose last week for the first time in three weeks. As a result, total mortgage application volume dropped 1.6% compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.97% from 6.84%, with points decreasing to 0.64 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That was the weekly average, but another index from Mortgage News Daily, which looks at daily rates, had the 30-year fixed mortgage moving back over 7% last Thursday. "Mortgage rates increased last week as incoming data showed inflation was still hotter than expected, which stoked concerns about the timing and extent to which the Fed might be able to reduce the fed funds rates this year," said Joel Kan, MBA's vice president and deputy chief economist.

Persons: Joel Kan Organizations: Mortgage, Mortgage News

☆ European markets set to open lower as investors look ahead to Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are heading for a negative open Tuesday as global investors look ahead to the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. Recent inflation reports could prompt the central bank to signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected. Fed funds futures currently forecast a 99% likelihood that the Fed will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, it's been a dramatic night for Asia-Pacific markets after investors assessed the latest central bank monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia. The BOJ officially ended its negative interest rate policy at its March meeting, hiking interest rates for the first time in 17 years and raising its benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%.

Persons: it's Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: U.S ., Asia, Pacific

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors digest news from Nvidia's AI conference: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were little changed on Monday after a bounce back in tech shares ahead of Nvidia's inaugural artificial intelligence conference. Heading into Tuesday, Nvidia shares showed signs of cooling as investors shift their focus to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. Futures tied to the S&P 500 slipped 0.12%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 8 points, or 0.02%. AI leader Nvidia pulled back roughly 1% in extended trading, as investors evaluate the news from its first-ever GTC Conference. Wall Street is awaiting guidance on the path forward for monetary policy as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday.

Persons: Jensen Huang, Blackwell, iPhones, Sam Millete Organizations: Nvidia, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Conference, Tech, Google, Apple, Bloomberg, stoke, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Financial Network

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors await fresh Fed guidance: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, August 8, 2022. Stock futures were little changed on Sunday, as Wall Street awaits guidance on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve this week. Futures tied to the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered near the flatline, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.2%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 99% likelihood that the Fed will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged this week.

Persons: Quincy Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Fed, Fed telegraphs, Financial, chipmaker Micron Technology, FedEx Locations: New York

☆ All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook next week, Nvidia conference on deck
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

How the Federal Reserve plans to proceed with interest rates will be in focus next week after some recent signs of hotter inflation muddied the outlook. In December, policymakers had penciled in at least three quarter percentage point rate cuts in 2024. On Friday, stocks were headed for a losing week even after the S & P 500, for example, notched a fresh closing record just this week. The chipmaker will be under increased scrutiny next week as CEO Jensen Huang takes the stage for the company's annual AI conference. TD Wealth's Vaidya anticipates four rate cuts coming in the third and fourth quarters, though he said that outlook will remain data dependent.

Persons: Sid Vaidya, Jensen Huang, Lorie Logan, Molly McGown, McGown, Brian Nick, Wealth's Vaidya, Nick, Mills, —, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Nvidia, Dallas, TD Securities, Securities, McGown, Bank of America, Housing, Micron Technology, Philadelphia Fed, PMI, PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services SA, Nike, FedEx, Darden Locations: U.S, NAHB

☆ Stock futures are little changed after strong inflation data spooks investors: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are near flat Thursday night as investors analyzed the fresh batch of corporate earnings and attempted to look beyond the latest inflation reading. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were also both little changed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell around 0.3%. Bond yields climbed in the session — with the benchmark 10-year Treasury reaching 4.29% — as investors wondered if the recent economic data was too strong for the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy. Investors will watch Friday morning for economic data on topics such as consumer sentiment, import prices and industrial production.

Persons: Dow, Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Luschini Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Adobe, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Dow

☆ Now comes the hard part for the Fed to achieve its goal of getting inflation to 2%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Core services costs excluding housing services — "supercore" inflation, as it has become known — remain elevated but at least the pace of increase, at 0.5%, has eased. "The 'last mile' problem for the central bank is the inflation in service prices, which is partly attributed to the tight labor market in sectors such as healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and construction. "This type of inflation, often termed 'cost-push inflation,' may not react straightforwardly to changes in interest rates." "Wage growth was significantly slower, the labor market wasn't as tight," PNC's Faucher said. "It wasn't that long ago, but it was a different economy than it is now, with some of those [current] post-pandemic effects of the tight housing market and the tight labor market."

Persons: Gus Faucher, Dow Jones, Sung Won Sohn, PNC's Faucher, Faucher, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, That's Organizations: Federal, PNC Financial Services, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Fed, JPMorgan, Monday

☆ Monetary vs. fiscal policy: How each works and their impact on the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +17 min

In contrast, monetary policy refers to actions taken by a country's authority on money — the Federal Reserve in the U.S. — to reach a desired economic outcome. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are implemented independently, even as one impacts the other. Expansionary fiscal policy combined with contractionary monetary policy. Contractionary fiscal policy combined with expansionary monetary policy. Now consider a situation in which the Fed is easing its monetary policy while Washington raises taxes, thus reducing after-tax income.

Persons: it's, we've, Apple, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Federal, White House, nab, Federal Reserve, U.S, CNBC, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ The Fed is 'held hostage' by data and risks sparking financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's over-dependence on data risks financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in a recent op-ed for Bloomberg. He says the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's strict adherence to data is sapping it of policy alternatives, economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote for Bloomberg on Friday. Many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2024, citing that neither inflation nor the US economy is sufficiently cooling.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, Torsten Slok Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed

☆ These surprise sources of income could cost you during tax season
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are celebrating a year of easy-to-obtain interest income, but the Tax Man will want his slice this spring. Institutions report interest income of $10 or more to their customers and the Internal Revenue Service on Form 1099-INT . For instance, you can be on the hook for an accuracy-related penalty of 20% of the underpayment of the tax. Interest income from these I bonds is subject to federal income tax, but investors don't receive it until they redeem the bond or it matures. "It might be worth it to buy the MLP and pay the tax," Kearns said.

Persons: Elizabeth Buffardi, Buffardi, you'll, Jerrod Pearce, Adam Markowitz, Brian Kearns, Kearns Organizations: Internal Revenue Service, IRS, CPA, Creative Planning, Luminary, CFP, Haddam, Advisors, MLP Locations: Oak Brook , Illinois, Overland Park , Kansas, Windermere , Florida, Evanston , Illinois

☆ The chief market strategist at $1.6 trillion Franklin Templeton breaks down how many rate cuts to expect this year. Plus, why the 'irrational exuberance' in stocks could be over by year-end.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-25 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Expect four rate cuts in 2024 that will bring the federal funds rate to 4.30% by year-end, according to the Franklin Templeton Institute Global Investment Management Survey, which compiles the views of the firm's 300 senior investment professionals who work across equities, fixed income, and alternatives. That's still more cuts than the Federal Open Market Committee projects in its dot plot: three reductions and a fed funds rate of 4.63% by year-end. Stephen Dover, chief market strategist and the head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, expects those rate cuts to begin closer to June or July and be 25 basis points each. For now, Dover pointed to a strong US economy, with solid jobs and GDP growth, as working against the possibility of earlier rate cuts. This will be another sticky point that the central bank will likely consider and could impact when cuts happen, he said.

Persons: Stephen Dover, Dover, there's Organizations: Franklin Templeton Institute Global Investment Management Survey, Federal, Franklin Templeton Institute

☆ 30-year mortgage rate rises to the highest level in 2 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked to 6.87% in the last week, the highest level in two months. Elevated borrowing costs for prospective buyers sent mortgage applications lower. A hot inflation report for January is likely to keep borrowing costs elevated as the Fed stays hawkish. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.87% in the week ending February 9th, marking the highest level since early December 2023's average of 6.43%, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe uptick in mortgage rates reversed the declines seen over the past few months.

Persons: —, Joel Kan, bode, Redfin Organizations: Service, Mortgage Bankers Association Locations: American

☆ A hot economy isn't a good reason for the Fed to 'drag its feet' on rate cuts, former central bank economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed adds to recessionary risk if it stalls rate cuts, Claudia Sahm wrote in the Financial Times. AdvertisementStrong labor and inflation conditions shouldn't stall interest rate cuts, and a higher-for-longer policy only compounds distress in the US economy, Claudia Sahm wrote in the Financial Times. We are so close to unwinding the final Covid disruptions," the former central bank economist wrote. "Now it is not the time for the central bank to drag its feet on rate cuts. But the world has changed with notable disinflation, and the Fed is not changing its policy," she wrote.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, It's, Sahm Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Federal, Fed

☆ High yields on savings are coming down. Here’s where you can still get 5% on cash
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Of the banks under Wells Fargo's coverage, Discover was the first to trim its online savings account rate for this rate cycle, according to analyst Michael Kaye. It's a marked turn from when online banks jockeyed for customers' deposits as the Fed began raising rates in March 2022. Too good to last See below for a table of online banks and the APY they're offering on savings accounts. The catch with savings accounts is that banks can opt to tweak their yields at any time. Investors hoping to play a lower rate environment with exchange-traded funds may want to consider buying intermediate-term bond funds .

Persons: Michael Kaye, Banks, Ally, Cowen, Moshe Orenbuch, Cash that's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Discover Financial, Financial, Fed, Investors Locations: Wells

☆ Stubborn inflation means the Fed will be cutting rates less than the market thought
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

If nothing else, the January inflation report released Tuesday finally appears to have convinced markets that Federal Reserve officials weren't kidding around when they said they will take a deliberate approach to cutting interest rates this year. Following the consumer price index report showing the year-over-year reading well ahead of the Fed's desired inflation goal, markets recalibrated their monetary policy expectations. The Fed "faces a challenging task in balancing economic growth and employment while trying to control inflation," he added. Indeed, the narrative of the Fed being able to start cutting early, and moving rapidly through the year, was all but dead Tuesday. The January CPI report is a "setback for the Fed and makes a May rate cut unlikely.

Persons: Ditto, —, it's, Sung Won Sohn, Dow, Jerome Powell, Jason Pride, there's, Powell, Matthew Ryan, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, CME, Labor, CPI, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Dow Jones, US2Y, CBS, Bank of America, Citigroup, Fed, Evercore ISI

☆ The Fed probably won’t cut rates in March. Here’s what that means for markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Investors now expect that the Fed will begin easing back rates in May or June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Before the Bell: What does the Fed’s signal that it won’t cut rates in March mean for markets? I think what’s important for the markets themselves is the fact that the Fed has signaled they’re going to cut rates. So, they’re going to cut rates at some point this year, probably May or June is going to be the first cut that we get. There’s a lot of areas where your earnings … start to reaccelerate higher, and that’s a good thing.

Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Bell, Matt Orton, I’ve, We’re, it’s, Matt Egan, Read, Price Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Investors, Fed, Raymond James Investment Management, The Conference, Conference, Avis Budget Group, Hasbro, Cola, Molson Coors, The, Labor Statistics, Kraft, Heinz, The Commerce Department, National Association of Home Builders, University of Michigan Locations: New York, Wells Fargo

☆ The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator says 3 factors will ensure a coming downturn isn't too painful
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The inverted yield curve means that a recession is still likely, the indicator's inventor wrote this week. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe inverted yield curve has been flashing red for 15 months, but don't think that ongoing economic strength makes it a false signal, Campbell Harvey wrote in a Research Affiliates note. "The yield curve indicator suggests growth will substantially slow in 2024. On the business side, past experience with the inverted yield curve has led entities to take preventive action when Treasury rates flip.

Persons: —, Campbell Harvey, Harvey Organizations: Service, Duke University, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Fed's Neel Kashkari expects only two or three interest rate cuts this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks during an interview with Reuters in New York City, New York, May 22, 2023. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Wednesday that he expects the central bank to cut rates only a few times this year, contrary to market expectations. "We just need to look at the actual inflation data to guide us," Kashkari said. He added that there are "compelling arguments to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward." Kashkari said the trend indicates that interest rates may not be exerting as much pressure on the economy as expected.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Kashkari Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Reuters, Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, CBS, Market, Minneapolis Fed, Labor Locations: New York City , New York, Minneapolis

☆ Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating 'financial stress,' New York Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The quarterly increase at an annualized pace was around 8.5%, New York Fed researchers said. Credit card debt, however, jumped 14.5% from the same period in 2022. Credit card debt as a share of income is still below pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage debt increased 2.8% in 2023, while the delinquency rate increased to 0.82%, up a quarter percentage point from the previous year.

Persons: Delinquencies, delinquencies, Wilbert van der, Joe Biden Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Auto, Federal Reserve, Washington

☆ Younger Americans are falling behind on credit card and car payments, New York Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Delinquencies are rising among younger borrowers in particular, the New York Fed said. Younger borrowers have surpassed pre-pandemic levels of credit card delinquencies. AdvertisementYounger Americans are falling behind on paying credit card and auto loans, with the rate of late payments rising above pre-pandemic levels in the last quarter, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report. Total credit card balances hit $1.13 trillion and auto loans outstanding increased to $1.61 trillion. Advertisement"Serious credit card delinquencies increased across all age groups, notably with younger borrowers surpassing pre-pandemic levels," New York Fed researchers wrote.

Persons: — Organizations: New York Fed, Service, New York Federal Reserve, NY Fed, Fed

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