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☆ Gold flat as investors focus on Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices were flat on Wednesday as investors weighed chances of an outsized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the day. Gold prices were flat on Wednesday as investors weighed chances of an outsized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the day. The Fed is expected to announce a cut to interest rates for the first time in more than four years at 1800 GMT. Markets are now pricing in a 65% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, compared with 34% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment in a lower interest rate environment and during geopolitical turmoil.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Matt Simpson, let's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Index Locations: ., Lebanon

☆ What a Fed rate cut could mean for the world
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowThe U.S. Federal Reserve is on Wednesday heading for its first interest rate cut since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic — and despite the move being widely forecast, global investors are braced for impact. Global impactA key concern is the pressure interest rate differentials put on currencies. Oil and other commodities, usually priced in dollars, often receive a boost with a rate cut as a lower cost of borrowing can stimulate an economy and increase demand. "Interest rate cuts reduce the cost of borrowing in U.S. dollars, thereby creating easier liquidity conditions for companies around the world," Quilter Cheviot's Richard Carter continued via email. That includes whether the initial cut will reduce the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points or 50 basis points below its current 525 to 550 range.

Persons: —, Richard Carter, Cheviot, Cheviot's Richard Carter Organizations: U.S . Federal, Turkish, U.S ., Fed, Federal, Equity Locations: U.S, Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, Sweden

☆ DoubleLine’s Gundlach says the Fed needs to cut rates quickly, sees a half-point reduction Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve needs to ease policy swiftly amid the current economic slowdown, seeing a half-point interest-rate reduction this week. A quarter-point rate cut had been the consensus as recently as a week ago. But the 2-year Treasury yield was last at around 3.59%. The size of the Fed's first rate cut in years has been a point of debate on Wall Street. On the one hand, a rate cut could help boost earnings growth for companies following a period of high borrowing costs and stubborn inflation.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, CNBC's Scott Wapner Organizations: DoubleLine, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: Huntington Beach , California, United States

☆ Treasury yields little changed as Fed meeting set to kick off
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury yield was down by less than one basis point to 3.6194%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last less than one basis point lower to 3.5506%. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled to begin, with policymakers widely expected to announce an interest rate cut at its conclusion. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week, with an interest rate cut from the central bank all but guaranteed. The key question across markets remains how big the rate cut from the Fed will be on Wednesday.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, Bank of England, Bank of Locations: Bank of Japan

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise on upbeat retail sale data ahead of Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks pushed higher as positive retail sales surprised investors. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's likely interest rate cut on Wednesday. AdvertisementStocks moved higher after stronger-than-expected US retail sales boosted confidence in consumer health, as the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting is set to kick off. Retail sales increased 0.1% last month, compared to consensus estimates of a 0.2% decline. Strong retail sales suggest that the Fed does not necessarily have to hurry with larger cuts, as the consumer economy appears intact for now.

Persons: Stocks, —, That's, Scott Helfstein Organizations: Service, Federal, Investment, Global

☆ Gold's rally to records shows no signs of slowing
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices just won't stop rising. Year to date, gold is up nearly 26% — outpacing the S & P 500's 18% gain. Since ETF holdings only increase gradually as the Fed cuts, this upside is not yet fully priced in." Investors seeking exposure to gold can obtain it through exchange traded funds, such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) . The fund, which tracks gold prices and charges 0.4% in fees, is up nearly 25% in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lina Thomas, Thomas, Christopher Danely Organizations: Reserve, Goldman, Miners, Gold Miners, Citigroup, Micron Technology

☆ Bitcoin climbs above $60,000 ahead of Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bitcoin reclaimed $60,000 on Tuesday as investors awaited details of the Federal Reserve's rate cutting plans. Bitcoin "is likely to react to the news of a Fed rate cut with some retrenchment as the short-term market dynamics filter out," said Philipp Pieper, co-founder of Swarm Markets. The market is divided on whether the Fed would reduce rates by 25 or 50 basis points. One basis point equals 0.01%. Investors have been anticipating Fed rate cuts, the growth of bitcoin ETFs and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election as the next catalysts to shake up the crypto market.

Persons: Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Donald Trump, Philipp Pieper, bitcoin Organizations: Metrics, Federal Reserve, Swarm Markets, Nasdaq, Investors, U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street anticipates a long-awaited Fed rate cut: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works, as a screen broadcasts a news conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell following the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on June 12, 2024. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Tuesday as Wall Street anticipated a long-awaited rate cut from the Federal Reserve following an aggressive multiyear hiking campaign aimed at tamping down hot inflation. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 28 points, while S&P 500 futures hovered near the flatline. Investors remain on high alert ahead of the first expected rate cut from the Fed at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows traders pricing in a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut, and 37% odds of a 25 basis point move.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Peter Cecchini, Axonic, CNBC's Organizations: Federal, New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Fed

☆ Elizabeth Warren calls for emergency-like Fed rate cut ASAP
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The American economy appears to be just hours away from a major milestone: The first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve since Covid. Yet there remains an unusual amount of drama over the magnitude of that rate cut, with some in Washington calling for a supersized move. Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants the Fed to slash interest rates at a pace rarely seen outside of a full-blown crisis. “It is clearly the time for the Fed to cut rates. For instance, in early 2008 the Fed slashed interest rates by three-quarters of a point or more on three occasions.

Persons: Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Jerome Powell, Warren, “, ” Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse, John Hickenlooper, Powell, Bill Dudley, “ dawdling, Dudley, ” Dudley, panicking, David Kelly, ” Kelly, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Massachusetts Democratic, Sens, Wall, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNN, Democrats, Asset Management Locations: New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan advocates for a half-point interest rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

If Robert Kaplan still had a say in the matter, he'd be pushing for a half percentage point interest rate reduction at this week's Federal Reserve meeting. The former Dallas Fed president told CNBC on Tuesday that making the bolder move of 50 basis points would better position policymakers heading into the latter part of the year and the economic challenges ahead. "If I were sitting at the table, I would be advocating for 50 in this meeting," Kaplan said during a "Squawk Box" interview. One basis point equals 0.01%. Kaplan ran the Dallas Fed from 2015-21 and is now a managing director at Goldman Sachs.

Persons: Robert Kaplan, Kaplan, Jerome Powell, Jay Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Dallas Fed, CNBC, Federal

☆ Stock market today: Stocks close mixed as investors gear up for major Fed rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tuesday's retail sales data boosted soft landing outlooks. AdvertisementIndexes were mixed on Tuesday with investors still split on the potential size of an interest rate cut, with less than 24-hours to go before the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision. Unanticipated strength in Tuesday's retail sales data convinced investors that the economy remains robust, and the S&P 500 briefly hit a record high before paring gains. Bond yields edged up ahead of the Fed decision, nodding to the possibility that the odds of a jumbo rate cut fell after retail sales surprised to the upside. AdvertisementStrong retail sales suggest that the Fed does not necessarily have to hurry with larger cuts, as the consumer economy appears intact for now.

Persons: —, LPL, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, bitcoin, Treasury

☆ History says these 5 sectors are poised for double-digit gains within a year after the Fed cuts rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

As expected, the Fed has been coy about cuts, leaving markets torn between pricing in a 25- or 50-basis-point reduction. "In cycles where rate cuts were able to prolong economic expansion and keep corporate earnings on an upward trend, stocks performed quite well," Belski wrote in a mid-September note. AdvertisementWhile rate cuts aren't a cure-all, Belski is confident that the economic expansion will continue, which will keep this bull market on firm footing. "But with significantly strong trailing one-year performance headed into this initial rate cut, future gains are likely to be more muted relative to historical norms." Sectors poised to outperform as the Fed finally cuts ratesAfter outlining how US stocks broadly have fared following cuts in the last four decades, BMO shared relative sector performance before and after periods of rate declines.

Persons: —, that's, Ohsung Kwon, Brian Belski, Belski Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, " Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Fed, BMO Locations: bankable, Montreal

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Tech might not be the biggest beneficiary of rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gary Hershorn | Corbis News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineTechnology stocks benefit the most from low interest rates, conventional market wisdom says. When rates are low, that proposition appears attractive because returns are low elsewhere. This implies investors have been moving out of tech to other sectors that might experience tailwinds amid lower rates.

Persons: Gary Hershorn, Goldman Sachs, Christopher Barto, It's, CNBC's Hakyung Kim, Pia Singh, Yun Li Organizations: Trade Center, Corbis, CNBC, Nvidia, Meta, U.S . Federal, VanEck Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Fort Pitt Capital Locations: Manhattan, Jersey City , New Jersey

See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 30-year mortgage rates are down and hovering near 5.60%, according to Zillow data. 15-Year Mortgage Rates TodayAverage 15-year mortgage rates have decreased and are hovering below 5%, according to Zillow data. Last month, 30-year refinance rates averaged 6.59%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.90%. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: it's, you'll, Freddie Mac, they've, They'll, refinance Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ The Fed's biggest interest rate call in years happens Wednesday. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The meeting wraps up Wednesday afternoon, with the release of the Fed's rate decision coming at 2 p.m. "I hope they cut 50 basis points, but I suspect they'll cut 25. Here's a breakdown of what's on tap:The rate waitThe FOMC has been holding its benchmark fed funds rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% since it last hiked in July 2023. The 'dot plot'Perhaps just as important as the rate cut will be the signals meeting participants send about where they expect rates to go from here. In June, FOMC members penciled in just one rate cut through the end of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik, they'll, Mark Zandi, that's, Tom Simons, Zandi, Robert Kaplan, There'll, Seema Shah, FOMC, Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Powell presser, Goldman, Simons Organizations: Federal Reserve, Committee, Moody's, Wall, Jefferies, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Asset Management Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Stock market setting itself up for disappointment as it hits all-time high ahead of the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Last week, markets expected a quarter-point rate cut and were just happy that the Fed was starting the cutting cycle. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD And fed funds futures now point a majority of traders seeing a half point cut. Even though most Fed officials and economists believe the central bank would start with a quarter point. But now we've gone from that fear to expecting a half point. On the other hand, the JPMorgan traders think that a cut of a quarter point would "add to market uncertainty," meaning that we probably shouldn't expect the market to keep building on its all-time highs with a quarter point.

Persons: wouldn't, Michael Feroli, CNBC's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, JPMorgan

☆ Currencies listless as markets waffle over Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A quarter-point reduction by the Fed as it kicks off its rate cuts is still seen as the slightly more likely outcome, but only marginally so. Futures price a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. Investors are also looking to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday, when it is expected to keep its short-term policy rate target steady at 0.25%. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem meanwhile opened the door to stepping up the pace of interest rate cuts, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. The BoC, after keeping its key policy rate at 5%, a more than two-decade high, for a year, has trimmed it by a quarter point three times in a row since June.

Persons: Chris Weston, Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi, Christine Lagarde, Philip R, Lane, Luis de Guindos Organizations: U.S, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Fed, FedWatch, Bank of, Liberal Democratic Party, Sterling, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of Canada, Financial Times, BoC Locations: Japan, Asia, China, South Korea

☆ It's a big week for central banks around the world, with a slew of rate moves on the table
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Kevin Dietsch | Getty ImagesA flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves in either direction. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to join others around the world in starting its own rate-cutting cycle. Elsewhere, Brazil's central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting across Tuesday and Wednesday. Traffic outside the Central Bank of Brazil headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Monday, June 17, 2024. The central bank delivered its first interest rate cut in more than four years at the start of August.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Kevin Dietsch, John Bilton, CNBC's, Bilton, David Volpe, Volpe, 25bps, Wilson Ferrarezi, BOE, Ruben Segura Cayuela Organizations: Federal Reserves, Washington , D.C, Federal, Traders, The Bank of England, Norway's Norges Bank, South Africa's, Bank, Bank of Japan, Morgan Asset Management, European, Bank of England, ECB, Emerald Asset Management, Banco Central, TS Lombard, Central Bank of, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Brazil's, Brazil, Central Bank of Brazil, Brasilia, South Africa, Norway, Japan

☆ Stocks could hit a record this week, but the move may be short lived
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is on the verge of something unexpected — especially for September. The broad market index entered the week less than 1% below a record last reached in July. Krinky isn't the only one on the Street treading carefully with the S & P 500 near record highs. "With the S & P 500 close to our YE 2024 price target again, we remain neutral on the S & P 500 for now," wrote Lori Calvasina, head of global equity research at RBC Capital Markets. "However, after a sharp move lower in 10-year yields, the earnings yield gap for the S & P 500 is starting to head in a more favorable direction for stocks," Calvasina added.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG, Krinsky, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Mark Mahaney Organizations: Traders, Federal, Market Committee, RBC Capital Markets, ISI, of Justice

☆ U.S. Treasury yields dip as investor focus shifts to Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was less than one basis point lower at 3.6401%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to this week's Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision. The Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision are top of mind for investors this week, with the central bank's meeting kicking off Tuesday and concluding Wednesday. Markets are anticipating a rate cut from the Fed, the first since it began hiking rates in March 2022, but uncertainty about how big the reduction will be has been widespread. The central bank is also set to publish its latest economic projections on Wednesday.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Reserve, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of England

☆ Welcome to interest-rate cut week: Here's how the Fed's next move will impact everything from home prices to new cars loans
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Madison Hoff | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to CME FedWatch, which estimates interest rate changes based on market predictions, the size of the rate cut is a coin toss. As of Friday afternoon, there's a 51% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points and a 49% chance it'll be an extra-large 50-basis-point cut. That's because a larger rate cut makes borrowing cheaper, which tends to drive up spending and fuel price increases. Rate cuts will also eventually make it cheaper for small businesses to take out loans. A rate cut could cause a rush of buyers to enter the market in the short term, driving up prices and competition.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Michael Madowitz, she's, McTier, it'll, Mark Hamrick, Banks, Hamrick, NerdWallet, Sara Rathner Organizations: Service, Federal, CME FedWatch, Federal Reserve, Business, Washington Center for Equitable Growth, Fed, Consumer Financial, Bureau, asheffey Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, McTier

☆ Oil prices inch up on Fed rate cut outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices edged up in early trade on Monday amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut this week, though gains were capped by U.S. supply resumptions following Hurricane Francine and weaker China data. Brent crude futures for November were up 15 cents, or 0.2% at $71.76 a barrel at 0015 GMT. U.S. crude futures for October were up 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $68.88 a barrel. Still, nearly a fifth of crude oil production and 28% of natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico remain offline in the hurricane's aftermath. A key factor that will dominate the market this week is how aggressive a rate cut the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver following its Sept. 17-18 meeting.

Persons: Francine, Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel Organizations: Brent, U.S . Federal, FedWatch, ANZ, Republican Locations: Tatarstan, Russia, U.S, China, Mexico, Gulf, Florida, Iran, Israel

☆ Homebuilder stocks are 'priced for perfection,' investors needs to see lower rates driving demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks in the firm's coverage universe have "significantly front-loaded expected rate cut benefits, well in excess of prior fed cycles," he said. The chances of a smaller 25 basis point cut have fallen to a 41% chance. Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley is watching the data very closely as well and said a lot will depend on how consumers react as mortgage rates fall. Bouley said this is one of the clearest signs yet that a recent decline in mortgage rates is bringing buyers into the market. Slightly more than half the analysts who cover the stock rate it a buy or overweight, it said.

Persons: Mike Dahl, Dahl, Toll, Taylor Morrison, Matthew Bouley, Bouley, Horton Organizations: Federal Reserve, RBC Capital Markets, Tri, Tri Pointe Homes, Toll, RBC, KB, Barclays Locations: Tri Pointe, staving, Horton

☆ BlackRock's Rick Rieder says a golden age for fixed income begins this week with the Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

With the Federal Reserve expected to begin its rate-cutting cycle this week, investors should take advantage of this "golden age of fixed income" now, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. "The world is changing," said Rieder, the asset manager's global chief investment officer of fixed income. In this environment, Rieder likes the belly of the curve and assets like securitized products , high yield and European credit. BINC currently has about 28% of its assets in non-U.S. credit and about 20% in U.S. high-yield bonds. Rieder is not concerned about the narrow spreads in high-yield credit.

Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, —, Rieder, BINC, We've, CLOs Organizations: Federal Reserve, SEC, Fed, AAA, MBS, AAA CLOs Locations: BlackRock, Europe, U.S

☆ Get ready for stocks to embark on a weekslong rally after the Fed cuts rates, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are set to climb higher for at least the next few weeks, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee pointed to the Fed's policy meeting, with markets expecting a rate cut on Wednesday. A Fed rate cut will be bullish for stocks, regardless of its size, he told CNBC. AdvertisementWall Street has been anticipating rate cuts for months, especially as the economy has shown some weakness stemming from tighter financial conditions. However, stocks should move higher regardless of the size of the rate cut, Lee said, so long as central bankers assure markets that more cuts are coming.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, —, Powell Organizations: CNBC, Service, Bureau of Labor, New York Fed

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