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☆ Xi faces being humiliated by his 'no limits' friendship with Putin. But he can't back out of it now.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China's Xi Jinping has formed close ties with Vladimir Putin's regime in Russia. But the Wagner rebellion exposed that Putin's authority is shakier than Xi realised, an analyst told Insider. If Russia loses against Ukraine, Xi would face global humiliation. If there are further signs Putin's grip on power is weakening, and chaos could engulf Russia, Xi faces a tough choice. "It's unlikely that Xi will go out of his way to support Putin's regime if that entails significant risks to China itself.

Persons: China's, Jinping, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Wagner, Xi, —, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Graeme Thompson, Moscow —, Thompson, Jonathan Ward, Ward Organizations: Service, Kremlin, Ukraine, Eurasia Group, Reuters, Atlas Group, Russia, West, Beijing Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Moscow, Taiwan, Beijing

☆ Putin may have set a trap for Wagner fighters by letting them flee to Belarus, military experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Wagner fighters may not be safe in Belarus as it could be a trap after their uprising, the ISW said. The ISW said in an update on Monday that "Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap." And if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, it said, "Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven." The Wagner Group's short-lived uprising, which humiliated Putin and provided what experts said was the biggest threat during his decades in power, came after months of feuding between the Wagner Group and Russia's military brass. Russian media outlet Verstka reported that Belarus is constructing a base for around 8,000 Wagner fighters 124 miles from its border with Ukraine.

Persons: Wagner, Prigozhin, —, Vladimir Putin, ISW, Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Ian Bremmer, he's, Alexander Lukashenko Organizations: Service, Washington DC, Wagner Group, Eurasia Group, CNBC, Wagner, Kremlin, Guardian Locations: Belarus, Kremlin, Rostov, Moscow, Russian, Minsk, Ukraine, Russia

☆ Live updates: Russian mutiny questions Putin's grip on power; Wagner leader Prigozhin dubbed 'dead man walking'
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A man waves the Russian national flag as the members of Wagner group prepare to pull out from the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to their base in Rostov-on-Don late on June 24, 2023. An attempted mutiny against the Russian military by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has raised questions about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power and what could be next for the country. Prigozhin's private militia Wagner Group on Saturday seized control of the strategic city of Rostov and advanced an armed convoy to within 200 kilometers of Moscow. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that the mutiny exposed "cracks" in Moscow, while Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC on Monday that despite the deal, Prigozhin is a "dead man walking." The agreement means criminal charges against Prigozhin and participating mercenaries will be dropped and he will relocate to Belarus, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian reporters.

Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's, Prigozhin, Antony Blinken, Ian Bremmer, Alexander Lukashenko, —, Putin —, Dmitry Peskov Organizations: Russian, Southern Military District, Wagner Group, U.S, Eurasia Group, CNBC, Prigozhin, Kremlin Locations: Rostov, Moscow, Belarus, Russian

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Skimming off the froth
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on May 31, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But CNBC found it's more likely because large institutional investors are buying bitcoin as liquidity remains low. [PRO] Markets on an even footingMarkets may have declined last week, but CNBC Pro's Michael Santoli thinks there's still a "favorable underlying market trend."

Persons: Kospi, Wagner Group's, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Antony Blinken, Prigozhin, Ian Bremmer, Moody's, it's, Michael Santoli, there's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Wagner Group, U.S, Eurasia Group, Moody's Investors, BlackRock Locations: New York City, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Russia, Rostov, Moscow, U.S

☆ Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is a 'dead man walking,' says Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is a 'dead man walking,' says Eurasia Group's Ian BremmerWagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin led an armed rebellion against Russia President Vladimir Putin in an "unprecedented insubordination," says Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer.

Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Ian Bremmer Wagner, Vladimir Putin, Ian Bremmer Organizations: Russia Locations: Eurasia

☆ Turmoil in Russia means Ukraine will likely have a better counteroffensive: Eurasia's Ian Bremmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTurmoil in Russia means Ukraine will likely have a better counteroffensive: Eurasia's Ian BremmerIan Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss what the recent turmoil in Russia will mean for the geopolitical picture moving forward.

Persons: Ian Bremmer Ian Bremmer Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia

☆ Russian mercenary chief Prigozhin is a 'dead man walking,' Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowRussian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin is a "dead man walking" after leading a botched rebellion against Vladimir Putin, according to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. Prigozhin is "kind of dead man walking at this point," Bremmer said on "Squawk Box Asia" Monday. Ian Bremmer president, Eurasia Group"Putin has imprisoned and assassinated people for far less than what Prigozhin has done to him," Bremmer added. Rostov is strategically symbolic as the seat of the Southern Military District for the Russian military, a logistical and command hub for Putin's war on Ukraine. A screen grab captured from a video shows Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin making a speech after Headquarters of the Southern Military District surrounded by fighters of the paramilitary Wagner group in Rostov-on-Don, Russia on June 24, 2023.

Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin, Ian Bremmer, Putin, Antony Blinken, Bremmer, he's, Wagner, Rostov, Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin Organizations: Eurasia Group, Wagner, Kremlin, Eurasia, Southern Military District, Belarusian, Prigozhin, Southern Military, Anadolu Agency, Getty Locations: Moscow, Russian, Rostov, Ukraine, Belarus, Don, Russia

☆ 'Hell of a job': Biden's reaction and 5 other takeaways from Blinken's trip to China
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Sheila Chiang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Leah Millis | Afp | Getty ImagesU.S. President Joe Biden said Secretary of State Antony Blinken "did a hell of a job" in Beijing. His comments came after Blinken's high-profile diplomatic mission to China, aimed at soothing strained ties with Beijing. In a surprise meeting, Blinken met Chinese President Xi Jinping for a 35-minute meeting toward the end of his two-day visit. He is the highest-level American official to visit China in nearly five years. Here are other takeaways from Blinken's trip to China:Progress madeBiden wasn't the only one who saw progress in the talks.

Persons: Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, Leah Millis, Joe Biden, Biden, Blinken, Wang Yi, Qin Gang, Xi, Blinken's, Qin, Mark Hannah, Hannah, Bonnie Gasler, Gasler, Wang, Robert Daly, Wilson, Daly, Taiwan Blinken, CNBC's Organizations: of, People, Afp, Getty, Beijing, U.S, U.S . State Department, State Department, Eurasia Group Foundation, CNBC, German Marshall Fund, Tech, China, Institute, East China, Taiwan, Taiwan Relations Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Bali, Washington, Taiwan, South, East

☆ Japan signed a critical minerals deal with the U.S. — but it's still losing the global EV race
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Audrey Wan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Tokyo in March signed the U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Agreement, securing both countries' commitment to strengthen supply chains and promote EV battery technologies. Notably, the deal allows minerals from Japan to meet sourcing requirements for U.S. electric vehicle tax credits, unlocking up to $7,500 per vehicle. The critical minerals agreement was "negotiated in warp-speed time" when similar deals "usually take years," David Boling, Eurasia Group director for Japan and Asian trade, told CNBC. Hybrid EVs still account for 96.8% of new EV sales in the country, according to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. EV supply chain strainJapan depends on China for critical minerals essential to the production of EV components.

Persons: Yasuhide Mizuno, Kiyoshi Ota, David Boling, Boling, Eurasia's, BEV, China's, Kristin Vekasi Organizations: Sony Honda Mobility, Sony, Bloomberg, Getty, Japan, U.S, U.S ., EV, Eurasia Group, CNBC, U.S . Trade, Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Japan Automobile Dealers Association, International Energy Agency, Argonne National Laboratory, IEA, University of Maine, Hitachi Metals, Nikkei Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, China, Nikkei Asia

☆ European gas prices jump 50% in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Prices reversed course mainly because of longer-than-expected maintenance outages at key gas plants in Norway, analysts told CNN. “The recent price rally shows just how sensitive the European market is to disruption,” said Bill Weatherburn, a commodities economist at Capital Economics. European natural gas prices are still far below their levels last summer, when the continent found itself locked in an energy standoff with Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The field is one of the biggest in the world but now accounts for just a fraction of Europe’s gas supply. “The European gas market — and by extension the global gas market — [is] certainly not out of the woods in terms of adequately matching supply with demand,” Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS, told CNN.

Persons: ”, Bill Weatherburn, Tom Marzec, ” Massimo Di Odoardo, Wood Mackenzie, ” Henning Gloystein, Di Odoardo Organizations: London CNN, Benchmark, Independent Commodity Intelligence Service, CNN, Capital Economics, European Union, Gas, Gas Infrastructure, Wood, Eurasia Group, Norway “ Locations: Norway, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Europe, Netherlands, Groningen, “, Gas Infrastructure Europe, Japan, South Korea, Asia, Russian

☆ Addressing A.I. risks and regulation is a priority for world leaders, Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAddressing A.I. risks and regulation is a priority for world leaders, Eurasia Group's Ian BremmerIan Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, joins'Squawk on the Street' to discuss international nuclear arms control, investment into transitioning from fossil fuels, and fears about A.I. contributing to disinformation.

Persons: Ian Bremmer Ian Bremmer Organizations: Eurasia Group, joins'Squawk Locations: Eurasia

☆ The World’s Demand for Oil Is Set to Slow
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Stanley Reed | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Unease about prospects for global oil demand may account for this market malaise, analysts say. The agency’s report is likely to add to fears among oil traders that China, for decades the key driver of global oil demand growth, no longer performs this role. Growth in its consumption of oil is expected to slow, especially in the latter years of the forecast, which runs through 2028. There is a “dawning realization that China’s economic recovery from Covid isn’t producing the same sort of oil demand growth that China had prepandemic” said Henning Gloystein, a director at Eurasia Group, a political risk firm. These vehicles will mean that three million barrels a day of oil a day that might have been consumed will instead remain in the ground.

Persons: lockdowns, isn’t, prepandemic ”, Henning Gloystein Organizations: Brent, Eurasia Group, International Energy Agency Locations: Riyadh, China

☆ U.S-China tensions are worrying many in Asia: Eurasia Group Foundation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S-China tensions are worrying many in Asia: Eurasia Group FoundationMark Hannah of nonprofit organization discusses the results of its survey on U.S.-China tensions.

Persons: Mark Hannah Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: China, Asia

☆ France's Macron seeks to show he's no lame duck as pension discontent rumbles on
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

France's President Emmanuel Macron looks on in a meeting with JP Morgan CEO during the 5th edition of the "Choose France" Business Summit, in Versailles, southwest of Paris, on July 11, 2022. Around 8,000 demonstrators took to the streets of Toulouse, France, on June 06, 2023, protesting against the government. "They know Macron has no alternative than to rely on them, making it almost impossible to develop the centrist domestic project," he said. This is largely attributable to Macron's agenda," Schmieding said, adding France was replacing Germany was the most dynamic major European economy. French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at a Franco-Chinese business council meeting in Beijing, China April 6, 2023.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Morgan, Ludovic Marin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Macron, Renaud Foucart, Foucart, Les Republicains, Mujtaba Rahman, Rahman, Bruno Le Maire, Elon Musk, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Xi Jinping Organizations: Business, Afp, Getty, Nurphoto, Lancaster University, Eurasia Group, Macron, Finance, EU, U.S, Elon Locations: Versailles, Paris, Germany, Union, Toulouse, France, China, Ukraine, Europe, Beijing

☆ China and Xi are making a backup plan in case Putin dies or gets deposed, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Xi Jinping may be "contingency planning" in case Putin is deposed, an analyst told Insider. According to one analyst, Xi is likely already seeking to form closer relations with potential successors to the Russian president. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin meets with China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 24, 2023. ALEXANDER ASTAFYEV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty ImagesAnders Åslund, an economist and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Xi appears to be cultivating closer ties to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. At the April summit where the Chinese president visited Putin in Moscow, Xi held a rare one-on-one meeting with Mistushin, noted Åslund.

Persons: Xi, Putin, —, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Mishustin, ALEXANDER ASTAFYEV, Anders Åslund, Mistushin, Li Qiang, Mishustin, Ali Wyne, it's Organizations: Service, Russian, SPUTNIK, Getty, Atlantic Council, China's, of, Russian Security, Eurasia Group Locations: Russia, Russian, Beijing, Moscow, China, Ukraine, Siberia, Washington ,, United States

☆ Wild video of a Chinese fighter jet intercepting a US plane shows China getting reckless and confrontational, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Mia Jankowicz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

China startled the US by conducting a risky intercept of a spy plane over the South China Sea. China's longstanding claims over the South China Sea, through what is known as the nine-dash line, are not recognized by the international community — including other countries that border that waterway. A string of artificial islands in the South China Sea serves to extend China's military capability far into these waters, and is strongly opposed by the US. "I think defense departments should be talking to each other on a routine basis or should have open channels for communication," he said. "I don't think we are at the point where the US or China think that there's nothing to lose," he said.

Persons: —, Defense Lloyd Austin, Jonathan Ward, Lloyd Austin, it's, Ward, Dr Zeno Leoni, Leoni, Nancy Pelosi's, Ali Wyne, there's Organizations: Service, Defense, Atlas Organization, Pacific Command, US, King's College, South China, Austin, Eurasia Group, AP, China's Ministry of Defense Locations: China, South China, Singapore, Hainan, South, United States, Chinese, France, Ukraine, Taiwan, Beijing, Washington, Russia, China's

☆ As Price of Oil Slides, OPEC Plus May Weigh Further Production Cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Stanley Reed | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Just two months after surprising markets by announcing oil output cuts, officials from OPEC, Russia and other countries meeting in Vienna this weekend find themselves pondering whether they need to dial down production again. Their goal would be to prop up a market that has turned negative. Oil prices since mid-April have fallen more than 12 percentpushing Brent crude to about $76 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate to $71.70. The main reason for the slump: Persistent fears of a slowdown in the global economy that, in turn, has created worries among investors and traders about weaker demand for oil and other commodities. “They are faced with a market that is doggedly bearish,” said Raad Alkadiri, managing director for energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, a political risk firm.

Persons: Brent, ”, Raad Alkadiri Organizations: West Texas, Eurasia Group Locations: OPEC, Russia, Vienna

☆ Future wars are going to be catastrophic and robotic, and militaries have to 'come to grips' with that, former general says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Ryan Pickrell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Mick Ryan, the author and a strategist, says militaries need to "come to grips" with what is coming. The scene comes from a new novel, "White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan," written by a former military officer. "That is especially the case when the ratio of humans to autonomous systems in militaries is going to flip," Ryan told Insider. "We are not at the point yet where robotic systems are able to match humans in decision making," Ryan said. And these autonomous systems will have many similar flaws. "

☆ Italy is planning a sovereign fund amid a new era of national interest
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Italy is moving ahead with a sovereign fund to support critical parts of its economy, amid a wider push by several European nations to bring global supply chains closer to home. Italy's Minister of Enterprises Adolfo Urso announced Wednesday a public-private fund that looks at consolidating "national strategic supply chains" in the areas of raw materials and energy. The announcement comes after Ireland, another EU nation, said earlier this month that it intends to start a sovereign wealth fund next year. Italy established a wealth fund back in 2011 which has investments in energy, communications and aerospace sectors. When Covid-19 hit in early 2020, many European nations struggled to get their hands on masks and other protective equipment, which were manufactured in Asia.

But, given the hopes invested in China's economic growth and liberalisation, foreign firms' demand for expert knowledge about the Chinese market, the regulatory landscape, potential business partners and opportunities will inevitably keep growing. Smaller firms saw opportunity to fill the space left by any rivals, like Capvision, that fall foul of China's authorities. China's expert network market, however, will suffer from bad publicity in the short-term, as "no one wants to be associated with police crackdown," said Max Friberg, CEO of Inex One, a Stockholm-based marketplace connecting investors with expert networks. For now though, the trade in expert information clearly has become more cautious. "It's unfortunate that the expert network business gets into the public limelight in such a way," China Insights Consultancy (CIC), the country's second largest expert network company, said in a statement to Reuters.

☆ China doesn't really care who wins the war in Ukraine — it just wants to win the peace, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

There's little doubt that China wants the war between Russia and Ukraine to end, and soon. Political analysts and China watchers note that, ultimately, Beijing doesn't really care who "wins" the war — or what form a peace deal takes. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping via phone line, in Kyiv on April 26, 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's President Xi Jinping shake hands during a signing ceremony following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21, 2023. Any peace will be hard-wonNo-one is underestimating the challenges any would-be peace broker has before them.

☆ It's riskier than ever to be a foreign business in China, as evidenced by a series of recent sanctions, detentions, and an updated anti-espionage law that has watchdogs on edge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The updated law doesn't clearly define what constitutes China's national security or interests. The new law follows a recent spate of sanctions, probes, and detentions into foreign firms in China. Even now, the terms relating to national security and interest are still "not explicitly defined," the Eurasia Group wrote. The updated law is also particularly concerning because of the recent developments surrounding foreign firms in China. China's recent crackdown on foreign businesses is spurring concernsIn April, Chinese police questioned staff at American consultancy Bain in Shanghai.

☆ Top US general predicts troops will have to always be on the move and be 'nearly invisible' to survive on future battlefields
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Gen. Mark Milley painted a terrifying picture of what future battlefields will look like in a new podcast interview. Soldiers will have to be almost invisible to survive on battlefields that are far more lethal, he warned. Breakthroughs in this space include the development of long-range precision munitions, the emergence of hypersonic weapons, an increased ability to sense and track environments, and integration of unmanned robotic systems. "What are some of the attributes of a future force? But speed, size, and being nearly invisible will be fundamental to survival on a future battlefield."

☆ Forget the pension protests. France’s economy has momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

France’s economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, its national statistics agency said Friday, after stagnating in the previous quarter. Yet the long-running protests are unlikely to leave a lasting dent in France’s economy, according to Charlotte de Montpellier, a senior economist at Dutch bank ING. But its $2.8 trillion economy has held up comparatively well. Office buildings illuminated in the La Defense business district of Paris, France, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2023. ‘Momentum’ building for banksBritain’s exit from the European Union has also been a boon for France’s financial sector.

☆ With Russia's role in the global energy system falling, a select few nations are set to benefit
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Russia's role as a global energy player is set to diminish, and the U.S. and Qatar are among a slew of nations ready to fill its shoes, analysts told CNBC. "Russia's global LNG supply share will almost certainly decline this decade," Henning Gloystein, a director for energy, climate, and natural resources at political consultancy Eurasia Group told CNBC. He noted that its role in the liquefied natural gas space was retreating even before the country's invasion of Ukraine last year. Western sanctions, which resulted from the onslaught of its neighbor, further sapped most foreign investment out of Russia's LNG sector. He added that the total capacity for Russia's LNG facilities to produce natural gas will remain flat at 37 million tons over the next few years.

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