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The S & P 500 is on track to finish March flat and end the first quarter up more than 3%. So if you had $10,000 to invest, where should you put it and how much should you allocate to each asset class? He also recommended getting exposure to some of the top holdings in the SPDR S & P 500 ETF , which tracks the S & P 500, as well as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF . He said he'd invest 40% into stocks: 15% in Asia, 15% in the U.S., and 10% in Europe. On the equities front, he told CNBC Pro that he would buy large-cap energy stocks.
ETF trends reflect a wild first quarter for the stock market
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
It's the end of a wild first quarter for stock and bond investors, and ETF flows are reflecting that turmoil. The good news: Despite big market swings , equity and bond ETFs still saw overall inflows in the first quarter. ETF flows year to date: $70 billion inflows Consisting of: Equity: $24 billion inflows Fixed Income: $43 billion inflows Other (currency, etc. ): $3 billion inflows Source: ETF Store While that is still inflow, it is far less than has been typical in recent years. Much of that uncertainty can be seen in a notable pickup in money going into money market funds, traditionally a safe haven asset.
Bonds are rebounding in 2023 following one of their worst years ever as the asset class reclaims its function as an effective hedge for stocks. "Bonds are acting like bonds again," said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. What's more, because bonds tend to rally during a recession as benchmark rates decline, Devereux said she recommends focusing on high-quality fixed income including U.S. Treasurys, agency mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds. Within fixed income, she also recommended investors stick to bonds with AAA or AA ratings, saying investors should look for risk in equities rather than lower-rated bonds. "While returns for stocks and bonds have been positive so far this year, that stocks and bonds are largely performing well at different times has made the ride smoother for investors," Bolvin said.
With returns bound to be muted, Shalett likes investments outside of US stocks. "Market psychology has been shaken, setting off a dynamic that likely raises the odds of an imminent recession. Morgan Stanley Wealth ManagementShalett doesn't expect the size of decline her Morgan Stanley colleague Mike Wilson sees. However, with spreads widening and long-term rates reflecting a more reasonable terminal value, bonds are a decent relative portfolio hedge," Shalett said. And finally, active money managers like hedge funds should outperform in an environment where index returns are muted, Shalett said.
The Credit Suisse rescue has shaken the European banking sector and fears of wider fallout remain. Under the Credit Suisse rescue deal, 16 billion Swiss francs worth of Credit Suisse Additional Tier 1 debt will be written down to zero on the orders of the Swiss regulator. Overall, bank debt remained under pressure, with the cost of insuring exposure to the debt rising in the credit default swaps (CDS) market. CONTAGION RISKThe wipeout of AT1 bonds in the Credit Suisse rescue has alerted fixed income investors to the risks of investing in these instruments. At Credit Suisse, the bank's AT1 bonds were bid as low as 1 cent on the dollar on Monday as investors braced for the wipeout.
LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - Derivatives that track the value of key bank debt fell sharply on Monday, after UBS (UBSG.S) agreed to rescue rival Credit Suisse (CSGN.S), forcing a massive writedown of the latter's additional tier-one debt as part of the deal. Invesco's AT1 Capital Bond exchange-traded fund (INAT1.L), which tracks the value of AT1 debt, dropped 14% in early trading, while WisdomnTree's AT1 CoCo bond ETF was indicated 3% lower. Additional tier-one bonds, known as AT1s, are a type of contingent convertible debt that make up part of the capital buffers that regulators require banks to hold to protect themselves in times of market turmoil. If a bank's capital levels fall below a set threshold, AT1s can either be converted into equity or are written off, as they were in the case of Credit Suisse, which had to write off around $16 billion worth. Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Dhara RanasingheOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - European bank bonds slumped on Monday following the state-backed rescue of Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) by UBS (UBSG.S) as a wipeout of some bondholders raised concerns around broader bank capital and also hammered bank shares. "The takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS was done fast and should have provided reassurance to the market that we haven’t had another bank collapse. However, what it has done is exposed the issues around AT1 bonds,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell. In the bond market, Credit Suisse's Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds were bid as low as 1 cent on the dollar on Monday as investors braced for the wipeout. Shares in Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) fell as much as 64.5% while UBS Group (UBSG.S) shares dropped as much as 16%.
A common tool to gauge the market's intent is following inflows and outflows in large ETFs. There have been outflows from corporate bond ETFs like Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond (VCSH), high yield funds like SPDR High Yield ETF (JNK), bank loan ETFs like SPDR Senior Loan ETF (SRLN) and bank stock ETFs like Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB). The Credit Suisse issue was somewhat different. Europeans at the conference were surprised that there was a focus on Credit Suisse. The common thread of the commentary was that Credit Suisse had never recovered from the financial crisis, that it had been in decline for nearly 20 years.
Nancy Davis specializes in interest rate volatility and has called several market meltdowns. Enter Nancy Davis, who specializes in the concept of interest rate volatility, and established her reputation by predicting two different market blowups in 2018. Quadratic's Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF has attracted more than $800 million in assets. Interest rate volatility is something most people are short on in their portfolios." Her firm's IVOL ETF gives investors exposure to interest rate volatility, and they can also use options to bet on it.
"People look at the ETF as a price discovery tool." And because most of an underlying stock within a bank ETF does not actually trade, investors are able to access liquidity without having to trade individual companies. "And we find that the ETF is the go-to place to get liquidity and to see what the market expects." The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) has fallen nearly 24% since the start of last week, although volumes in the fund were among the highest ever recorded in its 18-year history. Draper said that the larger liquidity story remains strong, and that ETFs are a big driver of that story.
A pair of exchange-traded bond funds popped Wednesday as investors flee stocks in search of safety. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) and the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) each leapt by as much as 1.4% Wednesday morning. Investors sought safety in Treasurys , with yields dropping as traders bought up the issues. Corporate issues in BND include Amazon , AbbVie and Alphabet , while AGG holds bonds from Morgan Stanley , Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase .
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 20 basis points to 3.50%, touching the lowest level since Feb.3. The yield on the 2-year Treasury tumbled more than 40 basis points to 4.16%, also the lowest in over five weeks. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets such as Treasurys and gold on Monday amid an extraordinary plan to backstop the banking system and limit the impact from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. U.S. gold futures gained 1.2% to $1,889.40, while the SPDR Gold Trus t gained nearly 2%. Investors sought safety as banking regulators rushed to backstop depositors with money at Silicon Valley Bank and now-shattered Signature Bank, seeking to ease systemic contagion fears.
Interest rate jitters are meaningfully pushing investors to the shorter end of the yield curve, according to Joanna Gallegos, co-founder of fixed-income ETF issuer BondBloxx. Gallegos, former head of global ETF strategy for JPMorgan, believes it's a sound approach. So, as interest rates are going up, people are a little uncertain about what's going to happen to bond prices really far out," she said. As of Friday's close, the U.S. 10 Year Treasury was yielding around 3.7% — an 84% surge from one year ago. Meanwhile, the U.S. 6 Month Treasury yield was around 5.14%, which reflects a one-year jump of 589%.
February's consumer inflation report should be a big driver for markets in the week ahead, as investors watch for continued fallout from the shutdown of SVB Financial Group's Silicon Valley Bank. The consumer price index report on Tuesday is the last major inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's March 21 and 22 meeting. Silicon Valley Bank's troubles overshadowed nearly everything else in markets Thursday and Friday, as investors sought safety in the bond market and sold bank stocks. Those odds had been as high as 70% before the Silicon Valley Bank news began to hit the market. Now inflation data is being watched carefully since a very hot number could mean the Fed will become more aggressive.
In this photo illustration of the TradingView stock market chart of SVB Financial Group seen displayed on a smartphone with the SVB Financial Group logo in the background. Shares of SVB Financial Group , known as Silicon Valley Bank, tumbled for a second day Friday and weighed on the whole banking sector again on fears more banks would incur heavy losses on their bond portfolios. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF was off another 1.5% Friday following an 8% tumble on Thursday. Signature Bank , which does a lot of business with the crypto sector, was off 4% in premarket trading following a 12% tumble Thursday. On Thursday, the bank was worth $6.3 billion with that value set to drop even more when trading begins Friday.
Markets are jittery now that fears that interest rates will stay higher for longer have been reignited . These are BlackRock's recommendations: Short-duration fixed income: iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF, iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF, and iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF. Longer-duration fixed income: iShares TIPS Bond ETF, iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF and iShares MBS ETF. "While we do not suggest investors abandon stocks all together, in a "higher for longer" environment, we believe investors should gravitate towards value-style stocks," Chaudhuri said.
The JPMorgan Premium Equity ETF (JEPI) has a 12-month rolling dividend yield over 11%, and its 30-day SEC yield was just under that mark as of the end of February. The biggest funds in the market track indexes, like the S & P 500, and give investors market returns minus fees. But 2022 was a surprisingly good year for active managers , and active ETFs gained some share against their passive counterparts. The JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) has also been popular this year, with $1 billion of inflows and a 30-day SEC yield above 4%. Among the firm's smaller active fixed income funds, the Core Plus Bond ETF (JCPB) has a roughly similar yield, while the Income ETF (JPIE) yields above 6%.
How ETFs are expediting bond market modernization
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Despite equities having long transitioned to electronic trading, over-the-counter trading remains common in the bond market. Bond ETFs are changing that. "Bond ETFs are 20 years old today, and they trade the same way as some of the technologies in fixed income." Roughly a decade after equity ETFs were first introduced, the first four bond funds launched in July 2002 — the iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) , the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) , the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) and the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) . "And it just sounds really familiar to the way ETFs had grown with the equity markets."
ETF Edge: The resurgence of high-yield bonds
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailETF Edge: The resurgence of high-yield bondsCNBC's Bob Pisani with Joanna Gallegos, BondBloxx co-founder, joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss the resurgence of bond ETFs.
As short maturity Treasury bond ETFs see big inflows, more investors are taking on single-bond strategies as a solution to macroeconomic challenges. Buying Treasury bonds typically involves opening an account on TreasuryDirect or through brokerage firms like Charles Schwab. When seeking to invest in short-term Treasury bonds, Nadig advised looking for ETF products like this or a competitor's ETF products that offer similar kinds of exposure. On Friday, the 2 Year Treasury (US2Y) yield fell by more than 4 basis points to 4.86%, but returns have still increased 43 basis points this year. The 6 Month Treasury (US6M) currently holds the highest yield at 5.137% as of Friday's close.
Treasury yields are taking markets by storm. Investors with those preferences have also been flocking to short-term Treasury exchange-traded funds with durations of one to three years. Some examples include Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index ETF and the Schwab Short-Term U.S. Treasury ETF. Top-rated, short-term bond ETFs But there's another corner of the short-term bond market with yields that could go even higher. CNBC Pro screened for top-rated, ultra-short term bond funds using Morningstar data.
Socially conscious investors favored bond funds more than stocks for the first time, new Morningstar data shows. Sustainable bond funds amounted to three-fourths of overall net flows within sustainable funds, up from 16% in 2021. That jump helped fixed income funds overtake equity-focused peers in holding the lion's share of net inflows last year. Sustainable bond funds posted a $2.4 billion net annual inflow, compared with a loss of $335 billion seen among non-sustainable taxable- and municipal-bond funds. Still, the top fixed sustainable income funds held up better than the broader stock market last year.
And as yields on 2-year Treasurys approach 5%, single Treasury bond ETFs are attracting big inflows as investors seek balance in an uncertain inflationary environment. The 2-year Treasury yield closed the month of February on a tear, advancing more than 70 basis points for the month and climbing to 4.878% on Wednesday. The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) is comprised of securities with one to 12 months of remaining maturity. The SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF tracks between one and three years. Similarly, VettaFi's Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) focuses on exposure to bonds with that maturity duration.
In other words, the risk-reward ratio for stocks — or the equity risk premium — has to make sense, or else why take the risk by investing in them? 10 places to investDespite the lackluster outlook for stocks, strategists still say there are plenty of investing opportunities. The Vanguard US Quality Factor ETF (VFQY) and the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) offer exposure to the above areas of the market. This supports our preference for emerging markets, and our preference for Germany and consumer stocks in Europe. Within defensives, we like consumer staples over healthcare, which we downgraded this month.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is hovering close to a key level that strategists say could give stock investors a fright. The 10-year Treasury yield broke through resistance in recent sessions and is now a hair below the important 4% level. It's very much an inverse relationship between yields and the stock market," said Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies. "That does suggest 4%, which is not a resistance level, but it's certainly a psychological level...It impacts people for nothing more than it's a round number. After the October high, Stockton said the next big level on the 10-year yield chart would be about 5.25%, a resistance level established in 2006.
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