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The economist Paul Krugman says the war on inflation is pretty much over. This points to a "Goldilocks" scenario, in which inflation cools without a recession. That's perhaps what happened last month, when core inflation was "distorted by lags in the measured price of shelter," Krugman wrote on X, formerly called Twitter. He pointed to what some call a "Goldilocks" scenario, in which inflation cools without a recession. Notably, among items seeing lower inflation, nearly three in four had an increase in the actual quantity bought by consumers.
Persons: Paul Krugman, disinflation, Krugman, Mike Konczal, Konczal, Patience Organizations: Service, New York Times, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Roosevelt Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine
Footwear companies have found recent success going public market, but not all by any means over the longer-term. In more recent history, the brand has collaborated with Rick Owens, Dior, and Manolo Blahnik, among many other big names in fashion. The current IPO market landscape The IPO market has been all but frozen since the pandemic stock offering boom crashed, and successful IPOs have included iconic brands, such as the Johnson & Johnson spinoff of its consumer health business which includes Tylenol and band-Aids in the Kenvue IPO. Still, while Kenvue was the biggest deal of the year, it's barely holding onto its IPO price today, according to CNBC and Renaissance Capital data, and the IPO market overall hasn't performed great after listing. The two potential paths of a footwear IPO can be tracked by the histories of Crocs and Allbirds.
Persons: Nordstrom, Jeff Greenberg, what's, Johann Adam Birkenstock, Birkenstock, Angelo Bochanis, Oliver Reichert, outsized, Reichert, Konrad Birkenstock, Johann, Karl, Konrad, Margo Fraser, Kim Knott, Kate Moss, Corinne Day, Rick Owens, Dior, Manolo Blahnik, Jeremy Moeller, Barbie, Margot Robbie, Johnson, Kenvue, it's, hasn't, Mark Cohen, Cohen, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Bochanis, " Cohen Organizations: Universal, Getty, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Holding, Renaissance, Consumers, British Elle, Brand, CNBC, Columbia Business School, Facebook, Wall, JPMorgan, Company Locations: Merrick, , Miami, Germany, America, California, British, Arizona, It's, U.S
US furniture retailers like RH and Williams-Sonoma are struggling to sell products in a tight housing market. The unaffordable housing market is stretching wallets and making new furniture less of a priority for buyers. A slew of furniture brands have reported weaker earnings in the most recent quarter. Furniture retailers have reported weaker sales as Americans, who are struggling to break into the housing market, aren't buying the usual amount of couches, tables, and home goods. "A housing shortage and the over 20-year high on fixed mortgage rates has slowed down housing activity.
Persons: RH, Hooker, Jeremy Hoff Organizations: Williams, Service, Bloomberg, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Sonoma, Wall, Silicon, Williams, Elm, Virginia
I never like higher rates at any end of the curve. At every benchmark, you will first hear that every bull market ends because of higher rates. We have done well in the stock market at 7% on the 20-year and well at half that. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Shawn Fain, Fain, He's, haven't, Tesla, , Mike Wilsons, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Here's, it's, there's, that's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jim Cramer Rob Kim Organizations: Companies, Federal Reserve, Big, ARM Holdings, Club, MarketEdge, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, ARM, American Free Trade, Netflix, Earth, Apple, Treasury, Fed, CNBC Locations: Mexico, United States, Canada
Russia's war on Ukraine has fueled a massive brain drain that will hobble Putin's economy. Russia's GDP, as measured by purchasing power parity, will fall behind Indonesia's in 2026. "But Russia's slide and Indonesia's ascent are both driven in large part by the same thing: people. Russia is suffering from acute brain drain while Indonesia's labor force is growing," the Council wrote. Not only is Indonesia's labor force increasing, but the influx of highly skilled workers has helped boost private consumption standards in the country, it added.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, That's, would've, Putin, Indonesia's Organizations: Service, Workers, French Institute of International Relations, Kremlin, Atlantic Council Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Indonesia's, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Soviet, Indonesia, China, Beijing
"Today's data indicates that consumers are being cautious," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.97% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 1.38%. Emerging market stocks rose 1.09%. U.S. Treasury yields retreated after a sharp fall in U.S. job openings increased the likelihood of a Fed rate hike pause. Oil prices rose as Hurricane Idalia bore down on Florida's Gulf Coast, threatening supply in a tightening market.
Persons: Toby Melville, Peter Tuz, Tuz, payrolls, Brent, Stephen Culp, Susan Fenton, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Chase Investment, Commerce, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, U.S, Charlottesville , Virginia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Gulf
A Home Depot store is shown in the Little Havana neighborhood in Miami, Florida, September 18, 2015. "Mega-retailers are returning to 'just-in-time' inventory strategies, killing the 'just in case' promise of the pandemic's supply chain snarl," said Susquehanna analyst Bascome Majors. During the second quarter, the Big 4 retailers combined reduced inventories by 4%, the largest quarter-over-quarter drawdown since 2015, Majors said in a client note. No longer swimming in unsold merchandise puts them in a better position to bring in new seasonal goods for the all-important peak holiday season. Despite enthusiasm for new seasonal products, retailers remain cautious.
Persons: Joe Skipper, Bascome Majors, Majors, Susquehanna's Majors, Lisa Baertlein, Bill Berkrot Organizations: REUTERS, Susquehanna, Walmart, Big, Thomson Locations: Little Havana, Miami , Florida, U.S, United States, splurging, Los Angeles
Leading the round alongside BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, were Canada Pension Plan, Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System and, as previously reported, pension investor Investment Management Corporation of Ontario. The fresh funds will help the firm expand its factory footprint, Hartman said. Separately, Northvolt has assembled its first energy storage system products in Poland and expects to start customer deliveries from later this year. "We have a business plan... we always want to make sure we have access to the markets," Hartman said. Reuters has previously reported, citing sources, that Northvolt was preparing for an initial public offering that could value the company at more than $20 billion.
Persons: Helena Soderpalm, IMCO, Northvolt, Alexander Hartman, Goldman Sachs, Baillie Gifford, Swedbank, Singapore's, Chow, Hartman, Supantha Mukherjee, Simon Jessop, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, BlackRock, Reuters, Management Corporation of Ontario, Volkswagen, Chow Tai Fook Enterprises, BMW, Volvo, Thomson Locations: Vasteras, Sweden, BlackRock, Canada, STOCKHOLM, LONDON, Swedish, Europe, North America, Ontario, Hong Kong, Germany, United States, Scania, Poland, Stockholm, London
Sweltering summer bodes ill for Georgia's strays
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Aug 22 (Reuters) - In the blistering heat of a Caucasian summer, Tbilisi's stray dogs and cats are struggling to survive. According to activists, around 500,000 stray dogs and cats live in the country alongside 3.7 million humans. But with Georgia setting new temperature records amid Europe's rolling heatwave, Tbilisi's animals have been suffering. "The attitude was not very good," said Mariam Tsertsvadze, another Animal Project co-founder. "It’s so hard in Georgia to find new owners and forever homes for cats and dogs," he said.
Persons: Natia Chikovani, Mariam Tsertsvadze, Keso Baramidze, Tsertsvadze, It’s, Roman Churikov, Felix Light, Giles Elgood Organizations: Thomson Locations: Georgia, Tbilisi
China's economy is facing headwinds ranging from an unstable property market to weak consumer demand. Experts told Insider that a worsening scenario in China bodes poorly for global markets and other economies like the US. "As its economy continues facing downward pressures, its growth momentum might slow down further, in turn exacerbating the already significant pressures that the global economy is facing." One way this is already being felt is in the softening of Chinese demand, which has led to a sharp drop in trade. And as the housing crisis deepens, it will become harder to China to right the ship, creating a lasting drag on future global growth.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Evergrande, Alfredo Montufar, Helu, Keith Hartley, Hartley, Noah Sheidlower, Dexter Roberts, David Roche, they're, Roche Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, Country Garden Holdings, China Center, Conference Board, Federal Reserve, Atlantic Council, Housing, Independent, CNBC Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, U.S
An employee arranges shopping carts outside a Walmart store in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., November 20, 2018. Shares in Walmart, which have climbed 12.3% this year, were up about 3% in premarket trading. Smaller rival Target (TGT.N) on Wednesday beat quarterly profit estimates, benefiting from leaner inventory, but in contrast to Walmart, cut its forecast for the year. Online sales rose 24% in the second quarter, mainly driven by double-digit growth in store-fulfilled pickup and delivery. The company's global advertising business, called Walmart Connect, rose 35%.
Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Hogan, John David Rainey, Aishwarya Venugopal, Siddharth Cavale, Sriraj Kalluvila, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Walmart Inc, Riley, Walmart's, Wednesday, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, United States, Bengaluru, New York
US housing starts surge in boost to economy
  + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The sharp rebound in groundbreaking on single-family housing units reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday was another sign of the economy continuing to defy dire forecasts of a recession. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, jumped 6.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 983,000 units last month. The increase in groundbreaking was led by the West, where single-family starts soared 28.5%. Overall housing starts increased 3.9% to a rate of 1.452 million units in July. TIGHT SUPPLYDespite the rise in starts, housing supply is likely to remain tight.
Persons: Mike Blake, homebuilding, Christopher Rupkey, Freddie Mac, Nancy Vanden, Daniel Silver, Goldman Sachs, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Federal, National Association of Home Builders, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Treasury, Realtors, U.S, Fed, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: San Marcos , California, U.S, New York, homebuilding, Nancy Vanden Houten, Midwest
Industrial output and retail sales growth both slowed from a month earlier to a year-on-year pace of 3.7% and 2.5% respectively, missing expectations. J.P. Morgan analysts warned of a "vicious cycle" of real estate financing challenges and said trust defaults could wipe 0.3% to 0.4% from China's growth directly. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 0.6% overnight and futures rose 0.1% in Asia. European futures rose 0.4%. In bond markets, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose 2 basis points to 4.20% on Tuesday.
Persons: Androniki, HSI, Morgan, John Vail, Morgan Stanley, Tom Westbrook, Jamie Freed Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, China, SYDNEY, Reuters, Property, Nomura, HK, International Trust Co, Nikko Asset Management, U.S, Nvidia, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, Asia, Pacific, China’s, JAPAN, Australia
US retail spending picked up sharply in July
  + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
It was also the fourth straight month that retail sales increased. Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, rose 0.7% in July from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Spending rose on nondurable items, such as clothing and sporting goods. Excluding spending at gasoline stations, retail sales rose 0.8% in July from the prior month. “Goods consumption is holding up even as services spending has taken up an increasing share of household’s wallets.
Persons: , TJ Maxx, , Nikki Baird, Barbie, Taylor, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, Gregory Daco, haven’t, Wells Organizations: DC CNN, Retail, Commerce Department, Commerce, Walmart, Target, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Fed, “ Retailers Locations: Washington, EY
Biotech M&A Rebound Bodes Well for Venture Investors
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Brian Gormley | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
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Organizations: Wall Street
Investors are ignoring the risks of market turmoil and a recession in early 2024, Steve Hanke warns. The full impact of the decline in US money supply hasn't been felt yet, he says. Hanke is worried about the federal debt, but doesn't see BRICS nations threatening dollar dominance. "I'm saying, 'No, we haven't seen the decline in the money supply hit the real economy yet,'" Hanke continued. "Money is a fuel that runs the economy, and we had a huge buildup of excess fuel," Hanke said.
Persons: Steve Hanke, hasn't, Hanke, Johns Hopkins, We're, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Service, Johns, Stansberry Research Locations: Wall, Silicon
Bubble tea will test limits of China’s consumers
  + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
HONG KONG, Aug 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bubble tea may be the new bellwether for the Chinese consumer. At least half a dozen boba-drink makers, including China’s largest chain by store count, Mixue Bingcheng, are planning initial public offerings in Hong Kong or the United States, Bloomberg reports. Shares in Hong Kong-listed Nayuki (2150.HK), the country’s only publicly traded bubble tea chain, have dropped 70% since their debut in 2021. Follow @t__shum on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSAt least six bubble tea companies are looking to go public in either Hong Kong or the United States, Bloomberg reported on July 24 citing people familiar with the matter. In 2022, China’s biggest bubble tea chain by store count, Mixue Bingcheng, filed for a $918 million initial public offering in Shenzhen.
Persons: Mixue, Gen, Mixue Bingcheng, Robyn Mak, Katrina Hamlin, Pranav Kiran Organizations: Reuters, Bloomberg, HK, KFC, Haidilao, Refinitiv, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hong Kong, United States, Beijing, China, Shenzhen
Zachary Kirkhorn worked 13 years under Elon Musk until he confirmed Monday that he's leaving Tesla. That number of years working for Musk is like "working 50 years for anyone else," Gene Munster said. Kirkhorn did not say why he's leaving Tesla, but called his time there a "special experience." "He's done a 13-year tour of duty working for Elon, which is like working 50 years for anyone else," Munster told Bloomberg. In his announcement on LinkedIn, Kirkhorn didn't say why he left Tesla, but thanked Musk and called his time at Tesla a "special experience."
Persons: Zachary Kirkhorn, Elon Musk, Gene Munster, Kirkhorn, Elon, Munster, Tesla, Zach, Musk, Dolly Singh Organizations: Elon, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Bloomberg, Munster, Deepwater Asset Management, SEC, LinkedIn, Twitter, Wired, SpaceX Locations: Minnesota, Munster, Tesla
Australia hails 'Princess Mary' after Denmark defeat
  + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Ian Ransom | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
An Australian has graced Denmark's royal family for nearly 20 years since Tasmania-born Mary Donaldson married Frederik, the Scandinavian nation's crown prince. But 20-year-old Fowler, playing as a false nine, is now soccer royalty in Australia after stepping up in Kerr's absence. "Princess Mary Offs Denmark," read the front-page headline in the Sydney Morning Herald newspaper on Tuesday. "Denmark might have Princess Mary but Australia crowned a new queen after a stunning Mary Fowler performance helped the Matildas qualify for the quarter-finals," Martin Gabor wrote in his match report. Australia were upset 3-2 by Nigeria in the group stage when both Kerr and Fowler were absent, the latter due to a head-knock at training.
Persons: Mary Fowler, Asanka Brendon Ratnayake, Sam Kerr, Kerr, Fowler, Caitlin Foord, Hayley Raso, Mary Donaldson, Frederik, Mary Offs Denmark, Mary, Martin Gabor, Tony Gustavsson, Striker Foord, Kerr's, Ian Ransom, Sonali Paul Organizations: Soccer Football, FIFA, REUTERS, Danes, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Sydney Morning Herald, Australian, Thomson Locations: New Zealand, Canada, Melbourne, Australia, Denmark, Sydney, Australian, Tasmania, Nigeria, France, Morocco
Chinese government data showed China's population shrank in 2022 for the first time since 1961. "China's population is not only aging, but is also entering a gathering decline that will be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse," Terry Group researchers noted. The UN projects China's working-age population to shrink by three-fifths by 2100, which in turn will put pressure on young people and government initiatives to support that cohort. For comparison, between 1990 and 2010 when China's demographics were favorable, its working-age population grew 1.7% per year on average. Those figures are on pace to soon reverse, and instead the working-age population will contract at an annual rate of 1%.
Persons: it's, Terry Organizations: Terry, Service, Group, Terry Group, UN, Financial Times Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Beijing
Other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed a marked slowdown in labor costs in the second quarter, thanks to a sharp rebound in worker productivity. That added to reports last month showing a significant moderation in annual inflation in June as well as wage growth in the second quarter. Reuters GraphicsWorkers were more productive in the second quarter, which helped to curb growth in labor costs. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.7% annualized rate in the second quarter after declining at a 1.2% pace in the January-March quarter, the Labor Department said in a third report. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - rose at a 1.6% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Bill Adams, Nonfarm payrolls, Sarah House, Lucia Mutikani, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Labor, The Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Workers, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Dallas, California, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina
Consumers looking to save money are scaling back on big-ticket discretionary purchases, while spending at Club name Costco Wholesale (COST) continues to thrive. Excluding impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange, total company core-comparable sales were up 5% on an annual basis last month. Costco's "stronger than expected results are a signal it continues to take share in this difficult consumer environment," analysts at UBS wrote in a note. This strategy offers higher value proposition to customers, allowing the company to raise prices while still maintaining customer engagement. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, BUD, Raymond James, Anheuser, Molson, Elliott, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: Club, Costco Wholesale, Costco, TAG, UBS, Constellation Brands, Modelo Especial, U.S ., Anheuser, Bush Inbev, Molson Coors, TAP, Constellation, Procter & Gamble, Tide, Gillette, Atlantic, Anheuser Bush, Elliott Management, CNBC, Corbis, Getty Locations: U.S, Teterboro , New Jersey
Fearless Media is a newsletter about the future of entertainment, media, and tech by Creative Media chairman Peter Csathy . Disney CEO Bob Iger's comments regarding the strikers may hint at his deeper M&A state of mind. For the past decades, Disney CEO Bob Iger has been perhaps the most revered media and entertainment titan, beloved by both employees and Wall Street — a rare feat and balancing act to be sure. SAG President Fran Drescher joined voices across entertainment in calling Iger's comments "tone deaf" and rich for someone who reportedly makes more than 500 times the median salary of Disney employees. Peter Csathy is the founder and chairman of Creativie Media and an internationally recognized media, entertainment, and tech expert.
Persons: Peter Csathy, Bob Iger's, Iger, Bob Iger, , Fran Drescher, Iger's, Sun, Tim Cook —, Steve Jobs, Rupert Murdoch, Palminteri, Keyser, doesn't bode, Read Organizations: Creative Media, Disney, Morning, Fearless Media, SAG, Mouse House, Marvel, Pixar, Apple, Wall, Fox Television, Wall Street, Hollywood, Creativie Media Locations: Sun Valley, Nice
Small businesses boost US private payrolls in July
  + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
REUTERS/Amira Karaoud/File photoSummary Private payrolls increase by 324,000 in JulyWage growth gradually slowingWASHINGTON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected in July as small businesses boosted hiring, pointing to continued labor market resilience that could shield the economy from a recession. Private payrolls increased by 324,000 jobs last month after surging by 455,000 in June, according to ADP. MANUFACTURING DRAGHiring at small business, establishments with one to 49 employees increased 237,000, accounting for more than two-thirds of the gain in private payrolls last month. It has not been a reliable gauge in forecasting private payrolls in the BLS employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the BLS is likely to report that private payrolls increased by 179,000 jobs in July.
Persons: Amira Karaoud, Christopher Rupkey, Nela Richardson, It's, Daniel Silver, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, ADP, Reuters, Treasury, Fed, Stanford Digital Economy, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: Louisville , Kentucky, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June, little changed from May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.610 million job openings. Reuters GraphicsThere were an additional 136,000 job openings in healthcare and social assistance, while vacancies increased by 62,000 in state and local government, excluding education. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.8% in June. ISM manufacturing PMIIt has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Employers, Treasury, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Economists, ISM, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, . U.S
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