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US services sector growth slows moderately
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The survey's measure of new orders received by services businesses dropped to 51.8, the lowest level since December, from 57.5 in August. PRICES REMAIN ELEVATEDDespite the slowdown in new orders, services businesses continued to face higher prices. A gauge of prices paid by services businesses for inputs was unchanged at 58.9. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. The ISM's gauge of services sector employment dipped to 53.4 from 54.7 in August, which mostly reflected supply issues.
Persons: Amira Karaoud, Kurt Rankin, tightens, September's, Goldman Sachs, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, PNC Financial, United Auto Workers, Retailers, Treasury, Fed, ADP, Conference Board, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman, BLS, Thomson Locations: Louisville, U.S, WASHINGTON, Pittsburgh
Minneapolis CNN —US employers in the private sector added an estimated 89,000 jobs in September, a much lower total than expected and a potential indication of a sharp pullback in the labor market, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. The September tally landed well below economists’ estimates for 153,000 jobs added, as well as August’s upwardly revised total of 180,000 jobs added. While ADP’s tabulations don’t always correlate with the official federal jobs report — due out Friday — it’s sometimes viewed as a proxy for overall hiring activity, which has been gradually easing. “We’ve seen other times when we’ve had a relatively weak private sector number sandwiched between two stronger months,” Richardson said during a call with reporters. The BLS is set to release the all-important monthly jobs report for September at 8:30am ET on Friday.
Persons: , Nela Richardson, tabulations, it’s, We’ve, we’ve, ” Richardson, Ian Shepherdson, ” Shepherdson Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, ADP, , of Labor Statistics, Labor Locations: Minneapolis
That wasn’t the case with today’s ADP private sector jobs data report. So how can the labor market be both cooling down and heating up at the same time? That is to say there are multiple different ways of looking at the labor market. And that’s why economists at the Federal Reserve take into account multiple different reports on the state of the labor market. Speaking of which…The BLS is set to release the all-important monthly jobs report for September at 8:30am ET on Friday.
Persons: CNN Business ’, there’d, Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, ADP, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Federal, Refinitiv Locations: New York
US job openings unexpectedly grew in August
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Minneapolis CNN —The number of job openings at US employers unexpectedly surged in August, a testament to the continued strength of the labor market, according to new data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were an estimated 9.61 million open jobs in August, according to seasonally adjusted data from the BLS’ latest monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. That’s up from July’s upwardly revised estimate of 8.92 million openings. The consensus estimate from economists was for 8.8 million openings, according to Refinitiv. Federal Reserve officials have frequently pointed to the robust labor market, particularly the imbalance of job postings to job seekers, as a key factor in helping to lower inflation.
Persons: August’s, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, , Christopher Rupkey, Stocks Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor, CNN, Federal Reserve, FwdBonds, Dow Locations: Minneapolis
Minneapolis CNN —Higher gas prices heated up overall inflation last month, but the Federal Reserve got some welcome news: Its preferred inflation gauge cooled to its lowest level in two years. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a closely watched inflation measure that excludes gas and food prices, rose 3.9% for the 12 months ended in August. However, it also was largely expected: Gas prices heated up last month as well. The Commerce Department’s monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports are typically closely watched as they provide a comprehensive account of pricing, income and spending data. Other federal data at risk for delays could include key housing and auto sales data, Census Bureau data, PCE and GDP reports, among others.
Persons: ” Andrew Patterson, ” Patterson, ” Dana Peterson, “ That’s, , that’s, Price, Security Administration’s, “ We’ve, ” Vanguard’s Patterson, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Vanguard, CNN, Energy, “ Energy, Consumers, Commerce, Conference Board, Labor, Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Price, Security, Adjustment, Labor Department Locations: Minneapolis, Saudi Arabia, Russia
That could mean a delay in the much-anticipated announcement of the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) to the monthly benefits paid out by the Social Security Administration. The new rate will start to be paid to Social Security retirement benefits recipients in January 2024, while payments to SSI beneficiaries typically change at the end of each December. "A delay of the CPI release may have an impact on the COLA announcement by the Social Security Administration," according to a Labor Department memo detailing how a shutdown would affect agency operations. Last year, with annual inflation raging near the highest in four decades, the COLA announced for 2023 payments was 8.7%, the largest increase since 1981 and the fourth biggest ever. Still, whatever COLA is announced for 2024 is unlikely to offer the same buffer over inflation as recipients enjoyed in 2023.
Persons: Price, Dan Burns, Lucia Mutikani, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Social Security Administration, Social Security, CPI, Urban, Clerical Workers, BLS, Labor Department, SSA, COLA, U.S . Federal, Social, Thomson
That means the unemployment insurance weekly claims data will also not be published during any shutdown this time. “Most services provided by the Census Bureau would cease, including production of Economic Census data, production of economic indicators, and work on the American Community Survey,” the official said. That means delays in the release of key data, including the retail sales, housing starts and new home sales reports for September. Depending on the duration of the shutdown, the release of the first estimate of third-quarter GDP due in late October could also be delayed. As a self-funding agency, the Fed would continue to release data, policy statements and other reports.
Persons: Evelyn Hockstein, Organizations: WASHINGTON, U.S, United States Capitol, REUTERS, Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commerce, Analysis, Federal Reserve, Republican Party, Leaders, Republican, House, of Labor Statistics, Biden, Reuters, , Labor Department, BLS, Training Administration, American Community Survey, Fed Locations: Washington , U.S, Commerce Department’s, U.S
EY chief economist Gregory Daco thinks "consumers are becoming more conservative with their spending." Coming up is another headwind: the restart of federal student-loan payments. The different economic threats means consumer spending growth may not be so hot next year, as consumers are already reducing their spending. Other economists have pointed out how the upcoming student-loan payment restart will have an impact on the economy. Have you changed your spending habits or are you spending less on certain items given the restart of student-loan payments, fewer savings, and other factors?
Persons: Gregory Daco, Taylor Swift, it's, Daco, Torsten Sløk, NYU Stern, David Kelly Organizations: Service, Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, NYU, Morgan Asset Management, AAA, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon, American, , mhoff@insider.com
India tourist visa is seen in a passport in Brampton, Ontario, Canada, on March 17, 2022. India suspended visa applications in Canada on Thursday, escalating the festering diplomatic crisis between the two countries. The recent feud was sparked by the Canadian government's announcement of "credible allegations" the Indian government orchestrated the extra-judicial slaying of a Sikh separatist in Canada. The move will curtail India travel for Canada-based applicants and follows a travel advisory urging Indian nationals to "exercise utmost caution" while traveling in Canada and a reciprocal expulsion of senior diplomats. India's Ministry of External Affairs and Canada's High Commission in India were not immediately available to respond to CNBC requests for comment.
Persons: Justin Trudeau's Organizations: Canadian, BLS International, India's, External Affairs, CNBC Locations: India, Brampton , Ontario, Canada, New Delhi, Ottawa
NEW DELHI, Sept 21 (Reuters) - An Indian company on Thursday withdrew a notice about suspension of visa services for Canadian citizens, minutes after stating on its website that the services were suspended following a notice from the Indian mission. BLS International, an Indian company offering visa facilities, had earlier said the notice from the Indian mission in Canada cited "operational reasons" for suspension of visa services "till further notice". Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government categorically rejected Canada's suspicions that Indian agents had links to the alleged murder. With both nations expelling diplomats, analysts said India and Canada diplomatic ties have touched their lowest point. Since 2018, India has been the largest source country for international students in Canada.
Persons: Narendra Modi's, Sakshi Dayal, Sudipto Ganguly, Michael Perry Organizations: BLS International, Canadian Bureau of International Education, Industry, Thomson Locations: DELHI, Indian, Canada, British Columbia, India
“Recently, threats have particularly targeted Indian diplomats and sections of the Indian community who oppose the anti-India agenda,” an advisory released on Wednesday by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs said. Nijjar was an outspoken supporter of the creation of a separate Sikh homeland known as Khalistan, which would include parts of India’s Punjab state. The Khalistan movement is outlawed in India and considered a national security threat by the government. A number of groups associated with the movement are listed as “terrorist organizations” under India’s Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). His death both shocked and outraged the Sikh community in Canada, one of the largest outside India and home to more than 770,000 members of the religious minority.
Persons: , , Justin Trudeau, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Nijjar Organizations: CNN, Ottawa, Indian Ministry, External Affairs, High Commission of India, BLS, BLS International, Canadian, India’s, Indian National Investigation Agency, Khalistan Locations: India, Canada, New Delhi, Toronto, Vancouver, . New Delhi, United States, India’s Punjab, Surrey, British Columbia
That's in part because wage growth hasn't been keeping up. According to Bankrate's analysis, however, three industries' wage growth outpaced inflation. That was retail, leisure and hospitality and accommodation and food services. Here's why they fared better than other industries and whether or not experts think, big picture, inflation-proof industries actually exist. But, at that point, workers didn't want to come back to retail, leisure and hospitality and accommodation and food services.
Persons: it's, Sarah Foster, Talent.com, Harry Holzer Organizations: CNBC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Georgetown University, Brookings Locations: U.S
A security personnel stands guard outside the Canadian High-Commision in New Delhi, India, September 19, 2023. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW DELHI, Sept 21 (Reuters) - India on Thursday suspended visa services for Canadian citizens, a foreign ministry spokesperson said, citing security threats to its staff in its consulates in Canada. BLS International(BLSN.NS), an Indian company offering visa facilities, said the notice from the Indian mission in Canada cited "operational reasons" for suspension of visa services "till further notice". Canadian officials have so far declined to say why they believe India could be linked to Nijjar's murder. Industry estimates show the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Canada and India could boost two-way trade by as much as $6.5 billion.
Persons: Adnan Abidi, Narendra Modi's, Justin Trudeau, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Dominic LeBlanc, Sakshi Dayal, Shivam Patel, Rupam Jain, Krishn Kaushik, Shri Navaratnam, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Canadian, REUTERS, BLS, Global Affairs Canada, Canadian Bureau of International Education, Industry, Thomson Locations: New Delhi, India, DELHI, Canada, Ottawa, British Columbia, Punjab
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce whether it will raise interest rates again or implement a pause. AdvertisementAdvertisementHatzius also said at the NYU forum that "we've seen a very substantial rebalancing of the labor market." "We have seen clear evidence that inflation is moving down to the Fed's target, or strongly in the direction of the Fed's target, without a substantial deterioration in the real economy," Hatzius said. "We're entering a period where consumers are returning to an environment where they're much more dependent on the path of the labor market, on the flow of income creation," Meyer said. Goldman Sachs predicted those events could stunt economic growth — and complicate the Fed's job in the months to come.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, we've, Hatzius, Nick Bunker, it's, Bunker, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Michelle Meyer, Meyer Organizations: Service, Federal, Economic, North America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NYU, Jackson, Mastercard, Politico, of Labor Statistics, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
Government shutdown would leave the Fed flying blind
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —In the event of a US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will stop releasing data, including key figures on inflation and unemployment. A lack of crucial government data would make it difficult for investors and the Federal Reserve to interpret the US economy. “By the time the Fed discovered its mistake, the effects of excessive monetary tightening could be difficult to reverse,” she said. It’s unclear whether the Fed would hold rates steady in the absence of government data or how it would navigate a government shutdown when deliberating monetary policy. The effects of a government shutdown also depend on how long it lasts, which also isn’t clear at this point.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, acquiesce, Greg Daco, , Agron Nicaj, Price, Julia Pollak Organizations: DC CNN, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BLS, Republicans, , MUFG, Labor, Survey, ZipRecruiter, Fed Locations: Washington, EY, United States,
Why health insurance is poised to make inflation jump
  + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Suriyapong Thongsawang | Moment | Getty ImagesWhy health insurance inflation is hard to measureHealth insurance prices are a tricky thing for economists to quantify. Instead, the agency measures health insurance inflation indirectly based partly on health insurers' profits. It appears that health insurance prices measured in the CPI "will start rebounding" again, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. How health insurance profits affect inflationEarly in the Covid-19 pandemic, health insurers' profits jumped. Why health insurance inflation mattersThe U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively starting early last year to rein in persistently high inflation.
Persons: Suriyapong, Andrew Hunter, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Jerome Powell Organizations: BLS, Capital Economics, Health, Moody's, Consumers, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, Federal
A "Now Hiring" sign hangs on the door to the Urban Outfitters store at Quincy Market in Boston, Massachusetts September 5, 2014. That is just slightly above the 324,900 workers they added during the last quarter of the financial recession of 2008. "Seasonal employers have a few issues to grapple with in the coming months. Another is one that has been fairly constant since the pandemic: can they attract workers?," Challenger said. Signs are already emerging that the labor market is starting to cool and employers are hiring at a slower clip.
Persons: Brian Snyder, Andrew Challenger, Siddharth Cavale, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Urban Outfitters, Quincy Market, REUTERS, Labor, Challenger, Reuters . Retailers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Boston , Massachusetts, New York
UAW strike could brake hard-driving US economy
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
"UAW on strike" signs lean against a pile of wood on the picket line outside the General Motors Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly in Hamtramck, Michigan, U.S. October 25, 2019. RSM estimates the U.S. economy would suffer a modest 0.2% drag to annualized growth of gross domestic product this quarter should the strike action last for a month, Brusuelas said. Other economists offered comparable estimates of the potential drag from a prolonged strike by the Big Three's full union membership. A full-blown strike "could push U.S. payroll growth temporarily negative," Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. Pearce also estimated a full strike lasting a month could cut U.S. auto output by nearly a third, much as it did during the 1998 strike.
Persons: Rebecca Cook, Detroit's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Dan Burns, Deepa Babington, Diane Craft Organizations: UAW, General Motors Detroit, Hamtramck, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, United Auto Workers, RSM, Big, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Labor, payrolls, Thomson Locations: Hamtramck , Michigan, U.S
"While that amount is large in nominal dollar terms, it would not be large enough to tip the economy into recession. In the end, the impact of a such a strike would be modest compared to previous generations," Brusuelas said. Other economists offered comparable estimates of the potential drag from a prolonged strike by the Big Three's full union membership. A full-blown strike "could push U.S. payroll growth temporarily negative," Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote on Wednesday. Pearce also estimated a full strike lasting a month could cut U.S. auto output by nearly a third, much as it did during the 1998 strike.
Persons: Rebecca Cook, Detroit's, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Michael Pearce, Pearce, Dan Burns, Deepa Babington Organizations: UAW, General Motors Detroit, Hamtramck, REUTERS, General Motors, Ford, United Auto Workers, RSM, Big, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Labor, payrolls, Thomson Locations: Hamtramck , Michigan, U.S
Inflation sped up again in August
  + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests inflation is still too high, given the Fed's 2% target. The index for gas climbed 10.6% month over month, way more than the previous month over month increase of 0.2%. The new report also shows how much core CPI increased in August, a key inflation measure that excludes food and energy. Year over year, core CPI soared by 4.3%, same as the forecast of 4.3% and below July's increase of 4.7%. While the Fed has been fighting inflation with interest rate hikes, there may be more to come as inflation is still above the central bank's target 2%.
Persons: Greg McBride, Bankrate, McBride Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Service, Index, of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI Locations: That's, Wall, Silicon
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesInflation rose in August on the back of higher gasoline prices, according to the consumer price index. Gasoline was the largest contributor to inflation in August, accounting for more than half of the increase, according to the BLS. This pared-down measure — known as "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose slightly, to 0.3% in August from 0.2% in July. The increase in monthly core CPI "is a little bump in the road," said Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult.
Persons: Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Greg McBride, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Scott Olson Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, Capital Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, AAA, BLS, Transportation, U.S . Department, Morning, Bankrate, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Virginia, U.S
Insider looked at jobs with above-median pay that are expected to see growth. We analyzed both employment projections for 2022 to 2032 and May 2022 median annual wage data. Total employment is projected to grow by nearly 4.7 million over this 10-year period, a press release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Advertisement Advertisement Watch: How tech layoffs could affect the economyFor our definition of jobs that pay well or are high-paying, we didn't just look at jobs that have a median of six figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a few occupations that are catchall titles — with the wording of "all other."
Organizations: Software, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor Statistics Locations: Wall, Silicon
But not all unionized workers have equal access to their employer’s DB plan. One sticking point in the UAW negotiations is to restore access to company pension plans that had been closed to anyone hired after the union accepted deep concessions in its 2007 contract. Why employers moved away from traditional pensionsMany employers started making the shift to 401(k) plans and other DC plans in the 1980s. The PBGC protects pension benefits and continues to pay retirees should their employer or its DB plan become insolvent. Retirement readiness at risk for millionsSimply having access to a workplace retirement plan isn’t enough to guarantee a secure retirement.
Persons: “ We’ve, , Karen Friedman, That’s, , Craig Copeland, Copeland, won’t, , Friedman, nonparticipants, — CNN’s Chris Isidore Organizations: New, New York CNN, United Auto Workers, Big Three, Pension, Center, Bureau of Labor Statistics, DB, UAW, General Motors, Chrysler, Congressional Research Service, Research Institute, , federal, Guaranty Corp, Workers, Social Security, Vanguard, Security Locations: New York
The answer matters a lot to Federal Reserve officials who closely monitor the labor market. Some Fed officials believe more rate hikes are needed to cool the labor market. But the gap between ADP and BLS data does not automatically narrow when comparing ADP to BLS estimates of only private-sector jobs. Between the two, it’s difficult to say which is a better predictor of the true state of the labor market. Ultimately, ADP and BLS data “become checks on each other,” she told CNN.
Persons: It’s, ” Nela Richardson, Richardson, Sarah House, , Erica Groshen, Groshen, ” Richardson, House, Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, ADP, BLS, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cornell University Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, , United States
Los Angeles CNN —On what is usually the first Friday of every month, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its Employment Situation Summary, or monthly jobs report, formally known as the “nonfarm payroll” report. Many farm workers are seasonalBut why does this key employment report only tally “nonfarm” workers? However, despite the “nonfarm” nomenclature, a growing share of farm workers does make it into the BLS job report tally. Historically, the job of counting farm workers falls to the US Department of Agriculture due to its relationships with farms across the country. But farmers aren’t the only workers the jobs report excludes: Elected officials, domestic workers, some members of the clergy and people in many other nontraditional professions are also left behind in the official jobs report data.
Persons: nonfarm, won’t, Erica Groshen, Groshen, , Organizations: Los Angeles CNN, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Unemployment Insurance, Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Agriculture, USDA
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