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☆ Economy on 'golden path' to bring inflation down without a recession, says Chicago Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy on 'golden path' to bring inflation down without a recession, says Chicago Fed presidentAustan Goolsbee, Chicago Federal Reserve president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Friday's jobs report, his overall view of the economy and more.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Fed, Chicago Federal Reserve Locations: Chicago

☆ Fed trying to figure out if rates are high enough: Goolsbee
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

June 30 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said that he and colleagues will be parsing what will be "a lot of data" between now and the Fed's meeting in late July to assess if the US central bank needs to push borrowing costs up higher to bring down inflation. "That's what we are trying to figure out: have we done enough already? Do we still have substantially more to do, a modest amount more to do, and can we get inflation down without a recession?" Goolsbee said in an interview on Fox Business. Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Ann Saphir Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fox Business, Thomson

As Powell spoke, comments from other Fed officials showed the contours of the debate emerging at the central bank over whether further rate increases will, in fact, be needed. "If we simply press on with additional rate hikes, we could needlessly drain too much momentum from the economy," Bostic said. On monetary policy Powell kept the focus on the central bank's fight to lower inflation and said the process "has a long way to go." Despite the consensus on lowering inflation, the Fed is at a point where opinions about the need for and timing of additional interest rate increases may start to diverge. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jonathan Ernst WASHINGTON, Powell, ” Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Democrat Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Howard Schneider, Jason Lange, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal, Financial, REUTERS, Capitol, Financial Services, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, Bank, Democrat, Republican, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Silicon

Powell is due to deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Still, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) has advanced 14.3% so far this year. It holds chances of a recession at 25%, and in that base case, it expects the S&P 500 to rise to 4,500 - about 2.5% higher than current levels. ET, Dow e-minis were down 17 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 1.25 points, or 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 12.5 points, or 0.08%. Reporting by Shubham Batra and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun KoyyurOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tesla, Jerome, Powell, Peter Andersen, Goldman Sachs, Li Auto, Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester, Shubham Batra, Johann M, Arun Koyyur Organizations: FedEx, China, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Financial, Fed, Andersen Capital Management, Tesla Inc, Dow e, Coinbase, Nio Inc, Xpeng, Thomson Locations: Texas, U.S, China, Chicago, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Powell patter, UK shock, FedEx warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe Fed chair has a tricky message to communicate. Powell's colleagues on Tuesday stressed again they would stay the course until inflation is back to its 2% target. UK inflation defied expectations of a slowdown and held at 8.7% in May, while 'core' inflation jumped above 7% for the first time since 1992. In corporate news, FedEx FDX.N shares dropped almost 3% overnight after a profit warning. Events to watch for later on Wednesday:* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Affairs Committee.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, rationalises, Powell's, Treasuries, BoE, Sterling recoiled, Rivian, Jerome Powell, Adrian Kugler, Philip Jefferson's, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, Bank of, FedEx FDX.N, Rivals Rivian, European, Financial, Fed Board, Chicago Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Britain, Bank of England, China

☆ Street looks to extend rally into a holiday-shortened week that is light on data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Also on tap are several speaking engagements for Federal Reserve members, including Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday in his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. ET: St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard speaks 8:30 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks 12:25 am. ET: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks 10:00 a.m. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell departs after speaking during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on June 14, 2023.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Louis, Jim Bullard, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Tom Barkin, Friday's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mandel Ngan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Darden, FedEx, Louis Fed, Housing, NY Fed, Federal, Chicago Fed, Patterson Companies, Winnebago Industries, Algoma Steel, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, Commercial Metals, U.S, Treasury, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, AFP, Getty Locations: United States, Olive, Washington ,

[1/3] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. "Core inflation is not coming down like I thought it would," Federal Reserve Gov. The U.S. economy was "still ripping along for the most part," he said, with the underlying pace of price increases "moving sideways." The Fed this week ended its run of 10 consecutive rate hikes when policymakers decided to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in a range of from 5% to 5.25%. Though Fed chair Jerome Powell at a press conference Wednesday said no decision had been made about the upcoming July Fed meeting, investors and other analysts broadly expect the Fed to resume rate increases.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger WASHINGTON, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, I’m, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Chizu Nomiyama, Alistair Bell Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Richmond Federal, Fed, Chicago Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Norway, Silicon, U.S, Maryland

He said the full impact of central bank rate increases to date had yet to be felt. “I try ... to make it a point not to prejudge and make decisions when you are still weeks out from the meeting," Goolsbee said. "If you did not do that, the consequences for the financial system and for the broader economy would be extremely negative," Goolsbee said. "Even the anticipation of these problems does have consequences on the economy, it does have consequences on financial markets." Still to come before the Fed's June rate decision is another monthly read on the U.S. unemployment rate, now at a decades-low of 3.4%, and on consumer price inflation.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee: won't prejudge June rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

May 28 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Sunday he won't 'prejudge' whether he would support an interest-rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting in June, but noted that the full impact of the central bank's rate increases to date have yet to be felt. "We are going to get a lot of important data between now and then," Goolsbee told CBS's Face the Nation. "The actions that the Fed takes take months or even years to work their way through the system...there's no doubt inflation is too high, still -- it has come down -- and we are just trying to manage, can we get inflation down without starting a recession." Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Premarket stocks: Will the debt ceiling debate finish the Fed's inflation fight?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —Over the last 14 months, the Federal Reserve has taken a deliberate and economically painful approach to combating elevated inflation rates through interest rate hikes. The regional banking crisis and a possible debt-ceiling induced default on US debt could change all of that. What’s happening: There are two policy options that the Fed can use to address elevated inflation. For the first quarter, Lowe’s said overall sales fell 5.5% to $22.3 billion. Home Depot missed on first quarter sales and lowered its outlook for the year after customers slowed their spending.

Persons: shouldn’t, ”, Laurence Ball, Edward Boehne, Jerome Powell, Ben Bernanke, Powell, Ball, there’s, Austan Goolsbee, “, Julian Brigden, Bernanke, ” Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Bryan Mena, Blanchard, David Goldman, Parija, Lowe’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Johns Hopkins University, ” Former Philadelphia Fed, Fed, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Yahoo Finance, Partners, International Monetary Fund, Brookings Institution, Target, Walmart, Home Depot Locations: New York, ”, Washington ,, America, California

☆ Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speak live on monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Friday at the "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" panel at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference the central bank is hosting in Washington, D.C. The remarks come with markets suddenly divided on where the Fed goes from here. Market pricing Friday morning indicated about a 35% probability the Fed might approve another interest rate hike when it meets in June, according to the CME Group. The Fed next week will release minutes from its meeting earlier in May at which it approved its 10th interest rate hike since March 2022. Read more:Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn't justify pausing rate hikes yetFed Governor Philip Jefferson named as new vice chair to succeed Lael BrainardFed increases rates a quarter point and signals a potential end to hikes

☆ Federal Reserve officials are growing skeptical over suspending rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some officials are concerned inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, which could prompt an 11th consecutive rate hike when policymakers meet in June. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell and former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke (R) participate in a discussion at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty ImagesEarlier this month, Fed officials voted unanimously to raise the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to a range of 5-5.25%, while signaling a possible pause ahead. Of course, Fed officials’ thinking on monetary policy could drastically change if the United States defaults on its debt, which could happen as soon as June 1. Fed officials always mention that their views on interest rates largely depend on what economic indicators show, resisting taking an absolute stance on how they will vote.

☆ 2-year Treasury yield falls as investors weigh Fed speaker comments, interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over two basis points to 3.6249%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as investors weighed comments from Federal Reserve officials on the outlook for interest rate policy and assessed the state of the economy. Investors looked to remarks from Fed speakers for hints about monetary policy and assessed how that may affect the economy. On Thursday, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she did not believe halting interest rate hikes was justified based on recent economic data. More Fed speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, are due to speak Friday.

At the same time, he said the job market is showing an "unprecedented" break from past behavior with a steady drop in job openings without any rise in the unemployment rate. The big unknown is whether that continued job market health is consistent with inflation falling steadily from its current levels above 4% back to the Fed's 2% target. That could allow the job market to cool without as much of a rise in unemployment as might otherwise be the case. Economists and policymakers at this week's conference pointed to other factors adding to the case for a soft landing. But at this point the "uncertainty" about what's at work in the economy could, some officials feel, mask developments that are working in their favor.

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Wednesday, benefiting from its status as a safe-haven amid the risk of a U.S. debt default and as traders trimmed bets on imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts following solid consumer spending data in the United States. Against a basket of peers, including the euro, yen and sterling, the dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.96, to its highest since early April. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by comments from Fed officials. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6232, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ U.S. debt drama and data hoist dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar hit a two-week peak of 136.69 yen overnight and hovered just below that at 136.54 in the Asia day. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6244, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ Asian shares muted, US debt ceiling talks weigh on risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.09% in choppy trading, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) down 0.45%. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy edged closer to a deal to avoid a looming U.S. debt default Tuesday. After an hour of talks, McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, told reporters the two sides remained far apart on an agreement to lift the debt ceiling. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.01% to 102.61, inching closer to the five-week high of 102.75 it touched on Monday.

☆ Asian shares tentative, US debt ceiling talks weigh on risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.20% lower, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) was down 0.56%. U.S. stock indexes closed down overnight, hamstrung by dour forecast from Home Depot and April U.S. retail sales data that underscored softer consumer spending. "These actually came in on the lower end of expectations though the news was mixed, with a lower headline but higher core sales figures muddying the message." Recent economic data indicates slowing in the U.S. economy following a string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight high inflation.

☆ Data and debt ceiling hoist dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Data showed U.S. consumer spending appeared to have increased solidly in April, which together with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials weighed on bonds and against expectations that interest rate cuts are coming soon. Interest rate futures pricing implies no chance of a rate cut in June, down from about a 17% chance seen a month ago. "Market participants continue to lower pricing for near term rate cuts by the FOMC," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts. The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6239, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ The Fed could enact a 'substitute' interest rate hike at its June meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve officials could talk tough enough at their June meeting that it would amount to a de facto interest rate hike. "All Fed officials are being careful not to exclude a June hike with more data to come and we would not completely exclude this either," he added. A "substitute" hike could see the rhetoric out of the June meeting reasserting the Fed's stern commitment to fighting inflation and disinclination toward easing anytime soon. But some taming in the inflation data , stronger economic signals and repeated statements from central bankers that cuts are not in their forecast have caused a shift. Fed fund futures contracts are implying a 4.585% funds rate by the end of the year, from the current 5.08%.

☆ Indian rupee to resume decline as yuan slides to 7/dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to decline on Wednesday after the Chinese yuan dropped to its lowest level this year to the U.S. dollar. Non-deliverable forwards indicate that the rupee will open at around 82.28-82.30 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.2050 in the previous session. The offshore yuan, bogged down by the resurgent dollar, dropped below 7 to the dollar for the first time this year. U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% month-on-month in April, with control retail sales up by a robust 0.7%. 15** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $43.2mln worth of Indian bonds on May.

☆ Morning bid: Fed rates to stay higher for longer, debt drama goes on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg on Tuesday that it was "too premature" to be discussing interest rate cuts. Loretta Mester, the President at the Cleveland Fed, said they're not at the point where rates can be kept on hold. The chance of a rate cut as early as June has also disappeared, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, having stood at almost 20% a month ago. DEBT CEILING OPTIMISMWith just over two weeks until a possible U.S. debt default unless Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling past its $31.3 trillion limit, talks appear to be heading toward a positive outcome. Biden, who will be travelling to Japan on Wednesday, is set to cut his trip short and skip stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea amid the debt ceiling stand-off.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors assessed what could be next for Federal Reserve interest rates following a slew of comments from central bank officials. Investors looked to comments from Fed officials and economic data as they weighed what could be next for interest rate policy and whether the U.S. economy is likely to contract. That comes after last week's inflation data, which was slightly below expectations, led many investors to hope for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have grown louder in recent weeks.

But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

☆ Fed officials expect US interest rates to stay high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 15 - U.S. central bankers on Monday signaled they see interest rates staying high and, if anything, going higher, given sticky inflation - a stark contrast with the market's view that the Federal Reserve will be cutting rates well before 2023 is over. Inflation has eased some and should cool further, he said, but the process will not be quick enough to merit rate cuts anytime soon. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." "We still are well in excess of our 2% inflation target, and we need to finish the job." And he said he believes the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes so far have yet to be felt.

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