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The five-month, 28% sprint from the October correction low to the record high on the last trading day of the first quarter left the S & P 500 overbought, overheated and over-loved. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD So far, so good, three weeks down and now three weeks up, taking the S & P 500 back to within 1% of its March 28 peak. More specifically, he tracks the correlation between S & P 500 and the Citi Economic Surprise Index. Fidelity Investments head of global macro Jurrien Timmer fashioned this look at the path of S & P 500 earnings heading into and through each calendar year, with 2024 holding up better than 2023 was last year at this time. The last time the S & P 500 was at today's level above 5200 in late March, the 12-month forward price/earnings multiple was 21.
Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, It's, Powell, Lori Calvasina, we've Organizations: U.S, Bank, Citi, Citi U.S, Fidelity Investments, Treasury, RBC Capital
CNN —Bayer Leverkusen’s remarkable season took another extraordinary turn on Thursday as a late 2-2 draw against AS Roma stretched the club’s unbeaten run to 49 games. The 4-2 aggregate victory saw Leverkusen reach a first European final in 22 years, while Josip Stanišić’s 97th-minute strike ensured that the recently-crowned German champion remains undefeated this season. It means that Leverkusen has now surpassed Portuguese team Benfica’s record from 1963-65 for the longest unbeaten run across all top-level matches since the introduction of European competitions, according to UEFA. “It says a lot about the team, the conviction that we have and it’s great to finally reach the final. According to UEFA, Scottish side Celtic’s unbeaten run of 62 games between 1915 and 1917 is the outright record for a European club, although that only included domestic league matches.
Persons: CNN — Bayer, Josip Stanišić’s, Leandro Paredes, Gianluca Mancini’s, Stanišić, Ina Fassbender, , Xabi Alonso, , Chris Brunskill, Granit Xhaka Organizations: CNN, AS Roma, Leverkusen, UEFA, Roma, Getty, Bundesliga, ” Leverkusen, Atalanta, Europa League, Atlanta, FC Kaiserslautern, VfL Bochum, Scottish, Bochum Locations: AFP, Dublin, Ireland, European, Augsburg
For most investors, holding just one passive global stock market fund and one passive global bond market fund over the long term is the best way to construct a portfolio, the strategists said. While some more time-consuming, complicated strategies may allow for higher returns, this approach gives investors the best all-around bang for their buck, Loeys and Wise said. Our point is instead that we believe you can achieve most, if not all of your financial objectives by following our KISS approach. Two stock funds that do this include the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VTWAX) and the SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF (SPGM). For investors who want to do more with their portfolio, Loeys and Wise suggested dedicating 80%-90% of one's portfolio to the above strategy, and using the other 10%-20% on other investments.
Persons: Jan Loeys, Alexander Wise, Wise, Joeys, Loeys Organizations: JPMorgan, Business, KISS, Index, Stock Market, Bond, Fidelity
CNN —Borussia Dortmund continued its “incredible” run in this season’s Champions League, reaching the final after stunning Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the semifinal second leg on Tuesday. Valerio Pennicino/UEFA/Getty ImagesDortmund’s run in the Champions League is at odds with its domestic form. In Europe, though, Die Schwarzgelben have found a way to win matches and the semifinal second leg was the perfect demonstration of just that. Kai Pfaffenbach/ReutersFor Dortmund, it is a full-circle moment, given its last Champions League final in 2013 was also held at Wembley Stadium. For longtime servant of the club Marco Reus, the Champions League final will also be his last opportunity to play for Dortmund.
Persons: Germain, Mats Hummels, Edin Terzić, , Mats, Hummels, Valerio Pennicino, Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Hakimi, Luis Enrique, Kai Pfaffenbach, Marco, Reus Organizations: CNN — Borussia Dortmund, Champions League, Paris Saint, Parc des Princes, PSG, London, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Wembley, ” Dortmund, PSV Eindhoven, UEFA, Bundesliga, Dortmund, Reuters, League, Marco Reus, Borussia Dortmund, Santiago Locations: Paris, Parc des, Dortmund, London, Europe, Wednesday’s, Spanish
Bank stocks have been in comeback mode since making a key low post the regional bank crisis in 2023. A new breakout could be on the horizon, according to the charts. Two of the most popular bank ETFs are the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) and the SPDR S & P Bank ETF (KBE) . Both are lagging the S & P 500 in 2024, which is +8.2% YTD. The bottom line is that both KRE and KBE have been forming bullish patterns, and we could see breakout attempts soon.
Persons: KRE, it's, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: JPMorgan, Regional Banking, P Bank ETF
That shakiness around when the cuts are coming, as well as the expectation that rates could remain higher for longer creates an opportunity for active managers. Rick Rieder, BlackRock's global chief investment officer of fixed income, told CNBC in a phone interview. Indeed, core bond funds were among the winners in the 2008 crisis. For starters, they should think about the role they want a given bond fund to play within their portfolio: Is it to offset equity risk or to boost returns? "You're not investing in bond funds to shoot the lights out and build your wealth pile," said Morningstar's Jacobson.
Persons: Rick Rieder, Rieder, Eric Jacobson, Morningstar, John Croke ,, Morningstar's Jacobson, Jaime Quinones, they're, Quinones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Barclays, Bank of America, Citigroup, CNBC, Bloomberg, SEC, Morningstar, Vanguard, Stockade Wealth Management, Mutual Locations: Marlboro , N.J
HTRB saw a total return last year of 7.15%, and ranked in the 23rd percentile among its peers, according to Morningstar. The portfolio has 51% of its assets in mortgage-backed securities and 25% in investment-grade credit, according to the fund's website. Compared to many of its peers in the intermediate core plus bond Morningstar category, Hartford Total Return Bond ETF leans a bit more on securitized markets instead of investment-grade corporate debt, according to Morningstar. Finding opportunities Right now, one of the areas Goodman sees value in is agency mortgage-backed securities. Goodman also likes structured finance right now, like collateralized loan obligations, commercial mortgage-backed securities and nonagency residential mortgage-backed securities.
Persons: Campe Goodman, Morningstar, Goodman, HTRB, Morningstar . Goodman, Mike Mulach, Bonds, Fitch Organizations: Hartford, SEC, Wellington, Bloomberg U.S, Morningstar, BB, Poor's, Federal Reserve Locations: Wellington, Eastern Europe
CNN —Joe Biden’s Democratic base has been divided over the Israel-Hamas war. To some, including people within Biden’s own party, the public demonstrations against the war in Gaza remind them of the Vietnam War protests. A mere 2% answered with some version of the Israel-Hamas war (e.g., the Middle East conflict). An unpopular warThis is dramatically different from what we saw in 1968, when the Vietnam War forced President Lyndon Johnson to abandon his reelection bid. Only a small fraction of that polling decline can be attributed to Biden’s war response.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, Biden, That’s, Lyndon Johnson, it’s, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden’s Organizations: CNN, Joe Biden’s Democratic, NBC, Gallup, Republican, Trump, Black South, ABC, Quinnipiac Locations: Israel, Gaza, Vietnam, Africa’s, South Africa
Investors with cash on the sidelines may want to start moving some of that money into bonds, according to a new report from BlackRock. The bond market has seen some volatility amid the uncertainty around interest rates and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Bond yields move inversely to prices. US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yields Yields are at levels not seen in 20 years, he pointed out. Aggregate Bond ETF year to date The iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB) is also a passively managed, broad bond market fund which adds exposure to potentially higher-yielding names.
Persons: Steve Laipply, shouldn't, Laipply Organizations: Federal, Treasury, BlackRock, Fed, Core, Aggregate Bond, Bloomberg U.S, SEC, Aggregate, Bond Locations: BlackRock
Influencer marketing is booming, and brands spend billions to promote products with a personal touch. But these days, the industry of influencer marketing is completely off the rails. Since 2016, the dollars driving the influencer marketing industry have ballooned from $1.6 billion a year to an estimated $21.1 billion in 2023, according to Influencer Marketing Hub. Marketers, brands, influencers, and platform companies all have opportunities to exploit one another to varying degrees of harm." It's not great for consumersDespite the money flying around, the FTC only provides basic guidelines about disclosure requirements for influencer marketing to protect consumers of their content.
Persons: , Emily Hund, Hund, David Camp, Michael Jordan, George Foreman, Brooke Shields, Calvin Klein, isn't, It's, Kim Kardashian, influencer Chiara Ferragni, Lindsay Lohan, DJ Khaled, Naomi Campbell, Kardashian, Dylan Mulvaney, Bud Light, Ben Shapiro, Donald Trump Jr, Camp Organizations: Service, Business, Social Media, Harvard Business, CBS News, Nike, Salton, FTC, SEC, Consumer, NBC Locations: influencers, California
Cardboard stands with the AfD logo lie on the chairs in the Wiesenhalle before the start of the AfD Brandenburg state party conference. Traditionally, young voters are seen as more left-leaning, but the voting data suggests some divergences, with experts pointing to social media and what they describe as online echo chambers. A study published earlier this month showed that over half of those aged 14-29 in Germany use social media to stay updated about news and politics. But Berendsen told CNBC that it is one of the social media platforms where the tunnel-effect can be an issue. An AfD spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that its videos and texts posted on social media are tailored to young people.
Persons: Monika Skolimowska, Infratest Dimap, Eva Berendsen, Anne Frank, Baerbock, Maximilian Krah, TikTok, Berendsen Organizations: Getty, Russia, Anne, CNBC Locations: Hesse, Germany
That said, in general, most investors would be best served buying a diversified bond fund, said Mulach. What to look for in bond fundsThere are several factors to consider when investing in a bond fund. Intermediate-core durations typically range between 75% and 135% of the three-year average of the effective duration of the Morningstar Core Bond Index. Top Morningstar Bond Funds Ticker Fund Morningstar Category Type 30-day SEC yield Adj. Aggregate Bond ETF can be a great option to simply replicate that index, he said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, shouldn't, Morningstar, Mike Mulach, Chuck Failla, Failla, Mulach, You'll, Baird, BSBSX Baird, Morningstar's Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Sovereign Financial, Morningstar, SEC, Mutual, FLTB Fidelity, Fidelity, Hartford, Aggregate
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with the press after the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which was pretty fraught. Data centers If there is the whiff of a data center or anything in one, the stock goes higher. It's why Meta stock is a buy a tad lower as stocks tend to revisit those kinds of declines. I worry about Club stock Stanley Black & Decker for this reason, but the dividend will keep it propped up for now. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: what's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Powell isn't, Voltaire, Vertiv, Eaton, Meta, It's, jetsam, Darius Adamczyk, Vimal, Stanley Black, Decker, Azek, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo, Chipotle, that's, Johnson, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Scott Mlyn Organizations: Federal, Market, Broadcom, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Travel American Express, Raytheon, GE Aerospace, Royal, AAR, Honeywell, Southwest Airlines, Housing, Stanley, JPMorgan, Procter, Gamble, Colgate, Merck, Bristol, Myers, PepsiCo, Energy, Coterra Energy, Diamondback, drillers, CNBC Locations: California, Royal Caribbean, Delta, Devon
Finally, consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario, if not now then down the road. With unemployment under 4%, it shouldn't be that surprising that prices aren't" going down, said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. So you might have a sticky inflation scenario." "If inflation remains higher, the Fed will be faced with the difficult choice of pushing the economy into a recession, abandoning its soft-landing scenario, or tolerating inflation higher than 2%," Sanders said. "To us, accepting higher inflation is the more prudent option."
Persons: Justin Sullivan, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, Biden, Mike Sanders, Sanders Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council, Madison Investments Locations: San Rafael , California, U.S
Deutsche Bank on Thursday reported a 10% rise in first-quarter profit, beating expectations amid an ongoing recovery in its investment banking unit. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.275 billion euros ($1.365 billion) for the period, ahead of an aggregate analyst forecast of 1.23 billion euros for the period, according to LSEG data. Deutsche Bank said this was its highest first-quarter profit since 2013. Revenues at its investment bank increased 13% to 3 billion euros, following a 9% slump through full-year 2023 which had dragged down overall profit. Germany's biggest lender reported net profit of 1.3 billion euros in the prior quarter and of 1.16 billion euros in the first quarter last year.
Persons: James von Moltke, CNBC's Annette Weisbach Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bank's, Private Bank, Asset Management
CNN —For much of this season, Liverpool fans had spoken about sending Jürgen Klopp into the sunset with a historic quadruple of trophies. On Wednesday, Liverpool was stunned 2-0 by struggling local rival Everton in the final Merseyside derby of Klopp’s reign, all but ending the team’s hopes of winning a second Premier League title during the German’s tenure. The defeat leaves Liverpool in second place, three points behind Arsenal and one ahead of Manchester City, though Pep Guardiola’s side now has two games in hand. Klopp will now likely end his final season in charge with just the League Cup. In the second half, the emotions, we’re in a rush, not really clear enough and then we concede the second goal with a routine they’ve done all season.
Persons: Jürgen Klopp, Jarrad, Dominic Calvert, Lewin, , , Pep, ” Klopp, Peter Byrne, , Darwin Núñez’s, Mo Salah, “ It’s, Jordan, Pickford, Klopp, Carl Recine, Arne Slot Organizations: CNN, Liverpool, League, Everton, Merseyside, Premier League, Park, Goodison, Arsenal, Sky Sports, Europa League, Atalanta, Manchester United, Goodison Park, Reuters, Feyernoord Locations: Manchester City, Liverpool
Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter and below the 3% Wall Street estimate. Net exports subtracted 0.86 percentage point from the growth rate while consumer spending contributed 1.68 percentage points. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose at a 3.7% rate, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Income adjusted for taxes and inflation rose 1.1% for the period, down from 2%. Services spending increased 4%, its highest quarterly level since Q3 of 2021.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Gross, department's, Analysis, Commerce Department, Federal, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, LPL, Labor Department
Commentators pointed out that the data was still mostly strong but inflation is problematic. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 375 points as the market took in weaker-than-expected economic data. Savings rates are falling as sticky inflation puts greater pressure on the consumer," LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said.
Persons: , Stocks, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Reserve, Barclays, Bank of America, PCE, Financial, Treasury, Meta, Microsoft, Google
Bitcoin miners brace for impact as halving goes live
  + stars: | 2024-04-21 | by ( Mackenzie Sigalos | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +17 min
The technical event is relatively simple: Bitcoin miners get paid in bitcoin to validate transactions, and after 210,000 blocks of transactions are computed and added to the main chain, the reward given to the miners securing bitcoin is 'halved.' The aggregate market cap of the 14 U.S.-listed bitcoin miners tracked by JPMorgan analysts declined 28% over the first half of April to $14.2 billion, reaching year-to-date lows. Some have billed the 2024 bitcoin halving as a seminal moment for the mining sector. Marathon, along with other mining firms, has begun diversifying its business model into ancillary operations beyond purely bitcoin mining. Sullivan continued, "Bitcoin mining sites can only be repurposed if they meet the attributes that are required for HPC.
Persons: AUSTIN , TEXAS — Adam Sullivan, bitcoin, Sullivan, they'll, it's, Core's Sullivan, Bitdeer, Needham, Haris Basit, Basit, Cantor Fitzgerald, Greg Beard, Beard, Bitdeer's, Jason Les, Les, Fred Thiel, Capex, Thiel, Stronghold's Beard, Nic Carter, Blackrock, Bill Barhydt, Barhydt, Island's Carter isn't, Carter, CoinShares Organizations: bitcoin, CNBC, JPMorgan, Cipher, Bitdeer Technologies, Mining, Miners, Riot, Island Ventures, Circuits, Nvidia, CoreWeave, Bitcoin, HPC Locations: AUSTIN , TEXAS, Texas, bitcoin, U.S, Rockdale , Texas, Singapore, Bitcoin, Hong Kong, Abra, Europe, Dalton , Georgia, North America
How TikTok Changed Us
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Sapna Maheshwari | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +4 min
In the coming days, Congress may advance a bill to ban TikTok or force its sale to an American company. A few schools have removed bathroom mirrors because so many students were leaving class to film TikTok videos there. For 14 percent of American adults, TikTok is a regular news source, up from 3 percent in 2020. People who don’t have traditional backgrounds in journalism, akin to bloggers for the TikTok era, aggregate and share information in snappy videos. Organizations including The New York Times are also making short-form videos in which reporters talk to the camera about their stories, the TikTok way.
Persons: who’ve, It’s, , Brooks Barnes, Natasha Singer, Becky Hughes, TikTok, Taylor, mocktails, you’ve Organizations: Sony, Hollywood, The New York Times Locations: American, United States, Hollywood
That's because most of the past several weeks have shown that first-time claims for unemployment benefits haven't fluctuated at all — as in zero. "Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs, with 50 state rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file. Weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week," he added. Indeed, a Labor Department spokesperson noted that while the string of 212,000 prints on the jobless claims data is "uncommon," it would not be considered anomalous. The Labor Department official also pointed out that new seasonal factors to the claims data were announced a month ago.
Persons: Jim Bianco, Tracey Ryniec, Jim Organizations: Labor Department, Bianco Research, Zacks Investment Research, Labor, Federal Reserve Locations: New York City
However, if you were a fan of German soccer club Bayer Leverkusen, little changed for you over those 31 years – there was just a lot of disappointment. Since winning the German Cup in 1993, Leverkusen relentlessly explored increasingly agonizing ways of spurning chances to win trophies. The current season has already reaped rewards in the form of the Bundesliga title, with potential domestic and European competition success transforming this into a season for the ages. Everybody was on the pitch this evening, everybody was crying.”After years being the butt of the joke, Leverkusen fans could finally spin the narrative. Leverkusen fans celebrated en masse on the pitch after winning the German league title.
Persons: , David Letterman ’, Xabi, Alonso, Mike Hewitt, , Schwarzroten, ‘ You’ll, Olaf Schmidt –, , midfifelder, Jeremie Frimpong, Xabi Alonso, Lars Baron, Florian Wirtz’s wizardry, Deutscher Meister ’, ” Schmidt, , Schmidt, Andreas Rentz, ” Uwe Schewiola Organizations: CNN, Chicago Bulls, NBA, The Bulls, Bayer Leverkusen, Basque, Bundesliga, Europa League, West Ham United, Getty, Real Madrid, , Olaf Schmidt – Leverkusen, CNN Sport, Bayern, Spain, Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Bayer, Werder Bremen, Black, Reds, FC Kaiserslautern Locations: German, Europe, Real, London, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Germany, England, Spain, Italy, Tolosa, West Ham
CNN —Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp said he was “disappointed” to see his side knocked out of the Europa League quarterfinals against Atlanta on Thursday, but insisted talisman Mohamed Salah was not to blame. Elsewhere on Thursday, fellow Premier League side West Ham crashed out of the Europa League quarterfinals after losing 3-1 on aggregate to Bayer Leverkusen. English Premier League title raceWith such disappointment in Europe for English clubs, all attention now turns back to the Premier League title race. Klopp, hoping to leave Liverpool with the perfect present of a league title, said his side can now fully focus on the remainder of the campaign. It faces Fulham in its next league game on Sunday.
Persons: Jürgen Klopp, , Mohamed Salah, Liverpool couldn’t, Salah, Juan Musso, ” Klopp, “ It’s, Mo, didn’t, that’s, Guglielmo Mangiapane, Klopp, , Atalanta Organizations: CNN, Liverpool, Europa League, Atlanta, English Premier League, Atalanta, Africa, of Nations, Reuters, Anfield, Premier League, West, Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal, Manchester City, Champions League, Sunday, Fulham Locations: Italy, Dublin, Ireland, Liverpool, West Ham, Europe, London
CNN —Real Madrid will face Bayern Munich in the Champions League semifinals after defeating Manchester City in a tense penalty shootout on Wednesday. Defender Antonio Rüdiger struck the decisive blow for Real Madrid, burying his penalty into the bottom-left corner before his teammates piled on top of him in celebration. That’s how we won the game.”After a thrilling first leg between the two teams ended 3-3 in Madrid, City was fancied to advance in what transpired to be a night of high drama at the Etihad Stadium. Real Madrid will play Bayern Munich in the Champions League final four. “Congratulations to Real Madrid - they defended so deep with incredible solidarity,” said City manager Pep Guardiola.
Persons: Antonio Rüdiger, “ Madrid, , Federico Valverde, , City, Martin Rickett, Jude Bellingham, Valverde, Vinícius Jr, Erling Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish, De Bruyne, Luka Modrić’s, Bernardo Silva, Mateo Kovačić’s, Lucas Vázquez, Phil Foden, Ederson, Rüdiger, Naomi Baker, Carlo Ancelotti, Real, Pep Guardiola Organizations: CNN — Real, Bayern Munich, Champions League, Manchester City, Real Madrid, Etihad, Real, Ederson, Man, Premier League, FA, Chelsea Locations: CNN — Real Madrid, Madrid, City
However, they say immediate actions to reduce climate change could stem some losses in the longer term. Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor and environmental researcher at Stanford University, said the economic damage from climate change will take different shapes. Researchers estimated it would cost the global economy $6 trillion by 2050 to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement—the international agreement among nearly 200 nations to tackle climate change—compared to the study’s estimated $38 trillion economic damage due to climate change. “That’s what’s likely to happen from the global warming that’s already occurred and what’s likely to happen even for small increments of global warming.”The Nature study estimated the economic damage of different regions. The ICF paper said price hikes on essential elements of the cost of living in the US will add up due to climate change.
Persons: , Maximilian Kotz, Leonie Wenz, Noah Diffenbaugh, It’s, Wenz, Bernardo Bastien, Bastien, ” Bastien, , , “ That’s, what’s, won’t Organizations: CNN, United Nations, Potsdam, Climate, Stanford University, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, University of California Locations: Nature, Paris, University of California San Diego, California, North America, Europe, South Asia, Africa, United States
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