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Eight economists, investment chiefs, and strategists that Business Insider recently spoke to credited healthier-than-anticipated consumer balance sheets and spending for the continued expansion. "Either that, or they're going to be maxed out — they can't get any more money. They're not going to have any liquidity to be able to continue to do the things they're going to do." He's also sticking with defensive stocks as consumer spending softens, including those in the consumer staples sector like Clorox (CLX) and Procter & Gamble (PG). Real estate is a "hated asset class" that's negatively correlated with interest rates, Sekera said.
Persons: shouldn't, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, they're, Sue Crotty, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clark Bellin, Bellin, David Rosenberg, They're, Rob Swanke, Swanke, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Dave Sekera, Sekera, Christopher Barto, Gordon, Clissold, He's, Morningstar's Sekera, Crotty, Segal Marco Advisors, She's, Barto, that's Organizations: Business, Consumers, Segal Marco, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Commonwealth Financial Network, Nasdaq, Morningstar, Fort Pitt Capital Group, Procter, Gamble, Federal Reserve, Exxon, APA Corp, Duke Energy, Segal, Energy, Healthcare Locations: Devon, Real, NiSource
The S & P 500 just achieved its last upside target of 5,180 a few days ago. The S & P 500 has closed above its own intra-day midpoint 80% of the time since October lows. The index's longest streak of "good closes" (closes above the mid-point) since the October lows has been nine. Consistently strong market breadth Market breadth (or internals) can be measured different ways, but simply tracking the percent of stocks advancing every day is both the simplest and most useful. From this perspective, the S & P 500 has had positive internals 70% of the trading days since the October lows.
Persons: It's, That's, they've, we'll
Being that gold is priced in U.S. dollars and is very sensitive to moves in interest rates, gold is trading INVERSE to the U.S. dollar. So those macro relationships summed up; Stocks and gold are trading together Stocks and gold are trading inverse to the direction of interest rates and the U.S. dollar. Breaking down the gold chart Turning to the technicals of the gold market, I have some concerning analysis for stock market bulls, myself included. If the gold market does not break out above the highlighted $2356 level we may be setting up for a failure. If so, watch the reaction in the stock market - does it move lower with the failed breakout in gold?
Persons: it's, Elliott, Gordon, GBTC Organizations: U.S ., UUP, U.S
When stocks are in steep uptrends, it can difficult be difficult to determine when a meaningful corrective move is going to take place. Two examples of steep uptrends are Meta (Meta) and Nvidia (NVDA) , both of which are pictured below. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.
Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, NVDA, Katie Stockton Organizations: Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: Meta, Berkshire
Wall Street was mostly upbeat about equities heading into 2023, though even the most bullish investment firms thought the S&P 500 would finish this year at 5,100 — a level it has exceeded already. Resisting this rally is a fool's errand, according to David Keller, the chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. The long-time chartmaster warned of a near-term pullback as the S&P 500 approached its previous record high but has since abandoned his cautious call. AdvertisementFast-forward to early March, and many of those mega-cap growth names remain hot, especially Nvidia and Meta. "I like that idea, at this point, of diversifying away from mega-cap growth," Keller said.
Persons: , David Keller, chartmaster, Keller, I'm, they've, StockCharts.com Organizations: Service, Business, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Companies, Hilton, Marriott, Restaurant Brands, Burger King ., Biotechnology Locations: Burger
The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.
Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi
The performance of the once-dominant Magnificent 7 stocks has certainly shifted in the first quarter, with charts like Apple (AAPL) beginning to diverge from the rest of the mega-cap growth leadership names. But is the recent decline for AAPL just the beginning? Since a strong rally in the first half of 2023, Apple has essentially been in a basing pattern. The RSI has moved into the oversold range as well, which tells me to expect at least some sort of bounce off this well-established level of price support. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Apple, It's, AAPL, David Keller Organizations: Apple, Nasdaq, RSI, CMT
Tech insiders are cashing out during the AI-fueled stock rally
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Nvidia Nvidia is the leader of the pack with shares surging more than 70% year to date, following a nearly 240% advance last year. A number of directors at the company sold shares in late February amid the fierce rally. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of the recent technology industry obsession with large artificial intelligence models, which are developed on the company's pricey graphics processors for servers. Meta Platforms Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg trimmed his stake in separate sales over the past week. Satya Nadella (CEO) sold 1,300 shares on March 1 Bradford L. Smith (vice chair and president) sold 48,300 shares in early February.
Persons: Mark Stevens, Michael McCaffery, Mark Perry, Harvey Jones, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Meta's, Sherman Tuan, George Kao, Don Clegg, Lisa Su, Darla M, Smith, Mark Papermaster, Satya Nadella Organizations: Nvidia, Nvidia Nvidia, Microsoft, Whirlpool, AMD, Microsoft Microsoft, Bradford, Amazon Web Services
Fuji and Tokyo skyline Jackyenjoyphotography | Moment | Getty ImagesJapan's Nikkei stock index has been on a record-breaking spree on the back of robust earnings and investor-friendly measures. But the country's ailing economy has experts divided over this sustainability of this rally. Japan's corporate governance reforms have been a key driver for the country's stock markets, Momma said, while stressing that stock indexes do not necessarily represent the entire economy that includes SMEs and households. SMEs are a critical lever in the Japanese economy, accounting for 70% of national employment and 50% of the country's economic growth. "Spillover from the global boom of AI-related stocks certainly helped Nikkei," Momma said.
Persons: Kazuo Momma, Momma, Sayuri Shirai, pare, Shirai, Phillip Colmar MRB Organizations: Nikkei, Mizuho Research, CNBC, Bank of Japan, Nvidia, Technology, Stock, Keio University, Bank of America, Phillip Colmar MRB Partners Locations: Fuji, Tokyo, Germany, Japan, U.S, China
A bullish long-term turnaround has developed in the iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) , which broke out from a long-term triangle pattern late last year in a positive technical catalyst. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.
Persons: EWA, Katie Stockton Organizations: BHP Group Ltd, BHP, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: Australia, EWA
Biotechnology stocks have recently shown renewed strength, and improving momentum may just push these names toward the top of the leaderboard. Second, this level also represented a 38.2% retracement level based on the 2021 high and 2022 low, which is a widely followed support level based on the Fibonacci methodology. This week, IBB has bounced off that support level, making a new 52-week high as it briefly pushed above the 50% retracement level around $140. The weekly chart reinforces that biotechnology stocks may still be in the early stages of this advance, with lots of daylight between current levels and the 2021 highs. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: IBB, David Keller Organizations: Biotechnology, Nasdaq Biotechnology, CMT
There are various ETFs that hold recent IPOs, including the Renaissance Capital Greenwich Funds' Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) . The 200-day moving average is the most popular long-term moving average and one of the best long-term trend indicators. The IPO ETF bounced from the line last fall and has been trading above it through the first two months of 2024. Seeing IPO stay above the upward sloping 200-day moving average is the best-case scenario. Two IPO Holdings Investors should be aware the IPO ETF isn't very liquid, meaning that its average daily volume isn't robust.
Persons: RYAN, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Renaissance Capital Greenwich Funds, RSI, Ryan Specialty Holdings
Here's a lower-cost bet using options that Apple could catch up. However, there's a caveat: if the RSI fails to turn upwards, this trade set-up would be invalidated. The trade To take a bullish trade on AAPL, the trade structure I have used here is called a "bull call spread". Here is my exact trade setup: Buy $180 call, Mar. 22nd expiration Sell $185 call, Mar.
Persons: I've, AAPL, Nishant Pant Organizations: Nasdaq, Apple, Mar Locations: Here's, AAPL
While the major equity averages were rallying off their October 2023 lows, many gambling names did not participate in the rally. DraftKings (DKNG) DKNG certainly has the most established uptrend in the group, having sustained a fairly consistent uptrend through much of 2023. Higher highs and higher lows have marked the next 14 months, forming a classic Dow Theory uptrend. The October 2023 low was noteworthy in that the stock found support right at the August low around $26. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) WYNN has undergone a similar reversal off a December 2023 low, and also has recently broken above the crucial 200-day moving average.
Persons: DraftKings, DKNG, we've, Wynn, WYNN, LVS, David Keller Organizations: Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Nasdaq, Dow, Vegas Sands, RSI, WYNN, CMT Locations: Las Vegas, DraftKings, Vegas
Many ETFs and stocks have been rallying over the last four months, and some have been making new all-time highs. The OIH Oil Services ETF is not one of them. Crude oil All energy-related stocks and ETFs are beholden to crude, which has been struggling since topping out in June 2022. Crude oil recently bounced from its lows and is trying, once again, to leverage a potential bullish chart formation. This chart shows exactly how well the ETF has adhered to this multiyear upward sloping trading channel.
Persons: It's, OIH, We've Organizations: OIH Oil Services
Nvidia has been awarded the flagship status of companies leading the artificial intelligence revolution, and all eyes turn to fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Wednesday. The expectations are massive compared to the same quarter last year — and even compared to last quarter's earnings. The massive gains in price reflect this historic growth and the question is will the chart continue its rally following earnings? On Jan. 9 , I wrote about NVDA breaking through the 2023 resistance zone of $500 with targets of $650 in the first half of this year, and $775 in all of 2024. Expectations are for earnings of $4.59 per share vs 88 cents in Q4 of '23 and $4.02 in Q3 of '24.
Persons: It's, Eli Lilly, Elliott, Gordon, NVDA Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Elliott, Tactical Alpha, Edge
Read previewThe S&P 500's 22% tear over the last few months may just be getting started, according to Sevens Report Research, a market research firm with clients that include top Wall Street banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and more. On the valuations front, the S&P 500's multiple would only have to rise fairly slightly to lift the index to 6,000. "The S&P 500 is already trading with an elevated forward P/E multiple of over 20X expected 2024 EPS," he said. "If sentiment gets frothy, however, and stocks trade with a multiple pushing 22X, which is far from unheard of as the forward multiple of the S&P 500 hit 21.4 on 1/2/2022, then the S&P 500 could surpass 6,000 in H2'24." Essaye also said small-cap stocks cyclical sectors like big banks, and materials and transportation firms would do well in a soft-landing scenario.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, Tyler Richey, Richey, aren't, Louis Fed, Tom Essaye, Essaye, it's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, UBS, Business, Investor, CNN, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Amazon Locations: H2'24
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: Katie Stockton Organizations: Infrastructure Development, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: timeframes
Palo Alto Networks , Eli Lilly , and Eaton rallied hard over the past 12 months — up 127%, 117% and 66%, respectively. This $315 level is also close to the 50-day simple moving average (red line). Eli Lilly Two potential entry points: $617 (the 50-day simple moving average) and $541 (the 200-day simple moving average) The 50-day simple moving average is $617, a roughly 16.5% pullback from current levels, while the 200-day simple moving average is $541, a 27% decline. Instead, keep a close eye on that 50-day moving average, looking for that gap between the moving average and the stock price to narrow. As we can see, $242 represents the current 50-day moving average, with $240 representing a level of resistance shares recently surpassed.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Eaton, it's, pullbacks, PANW, Mounjaro, they've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, George Frey Organizations: Palo Alto Networks, Big Tech, Palo Alto, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Provo , Utah
Value-investing asset manager GMO last week published a study showing that the top ten S & P 500 stocks by size have handily beaten an equal-weighted pool of the other 490 for several years now. Neither is Microsoft, a useful indicator give that it was the largest stock by market cap both in December 1999 and today. Indeed, today the stock market has done well even as expectations for the speed and depth of rate cuts this year have diminished. (Industrials are leading, the equal-weight S & P is up 19% from October and there were 204 new 52-week highs on the NYSE Friday over 24 new lows.) The S & P 500 uptrend has for weeks targeted the 5050 area, as an immediate culmination point, and it's just about there.
Persons: Morgan, Marko Kolanovic, , Janus, Stocks, it's, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan, Jerome Powell, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jurrien, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco, Nasdaq, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, Fed, Netscape, Boston, NYSE Locations: Russia, It's, Orange County, Calif
This chart shows the percent of S & P 500 members above their 200-day moving average (second panel) as well as the percent of S & P 500 members above their 50-day moving average (bottom panel). Lack of breadth support So as the S & P 500 tests 5000 this week, how confident should we be about further upside for stocks? This would indicate that about 40% of the S & P 500 members had broken below their own 50-day moving average, in other words, a serious lack of breadth support. In each of these three instances, the S & P 500 moved even lower before eventually finding its footing and bouncing back higher. One key difference this time around is that the S & P 500 itself is moving higher.
Persons: David Keller Organizations: David Keller https
An ETF that's down 80% from its all-time high or one that is up 110% from its all-time low? Both of these outlandish percent moves describe the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) , which is down 80% from its February '21 high and now up 110% from its October '23 low. The only discernable point here is the spike in early February'21, which lined up exactly with the ETF's all-time high. The ETF had flirted with piercing this line before – most recently this past fall - but each attempt failed before 2024. Any index, ETF or stock that's in a long-term uptrend is trading above an upward sloping 200-day moving average.
Persons: Hope, we're, MSOS, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: Cannabis ETF
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: Dave, Katie Stockton Organizations: Buster's Entertainment, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities
The S & P 500' s latest run to a record high last week took it through an obstacle course of macroeconomic and company-specific hazards. Stocks are not at all cheap, with the S & P 500 at 20-times year-ahead earnings, which probably will mute multi-year returns. The median S & P 500 stock is flat year to date, is up 13% over the past three months, has gained 30% off its 52-week low and is within 8% of its 52-week high. On Friday, even as a majority of stocks fell with the S & P 500 gaining 1%, there were 175 NYSE new 52-week highs compared to 54 new lows. Here are the equal-weighted industrial and consumer-discretionary sectors compared to the equal-weight S & P 5600 since just after the bear-market low in October 2022.
Persons: Stocks, Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler, it's, Steve Deppe, Jobs, Jerome Powell, Friday's, Henry McVey, KKR's, Keith Lerner Organizations: Treasury, Wealth Management, Meta, Microsoft, Truist, Equity Locations: Meta, handicapping
After a few years of attempting to swing trade, Gajjala searched for an approach where he could feel more in control of his trades. For this trade, Gajjala has less time for analysis and needs to execute within the first and second bull flags. The red circle in the chart below demonstrates what a bull flag pullback looks like on a chart. Bull flag pullback chart pattern. By the time he did notice it, it had begun to form the second bull flag pattern.
Persons: Goverdhan Gajjala, Mark Minervini, Gajjala, hadn't, Norman Zadeh, Zadeh Organizations: Business, Nextplay Technologies, Bionomics Ltd
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