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ECB survey points to stickier underlying inflation
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
FRANKFURT, July 28 (Reuters) - Core inflation in the euro zone will come down more slowly than previously thought as wage growth is seen picking up in a tight labour market, a European Central Bank survey showed on Friday. The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) was presented to ECB policymakers this week as they decided to raise interest rates for a ninth consecutive time but also signal that the next step was still undecided and a pause was on the cards. "Respondents indicated that the upward revisions reflected recent data outturns showing more persistence than expected as well as higher forecast wage growth," the ECB said. Forecasts for the unemployment rate were revised down for this year and the next -- to 6.6% and 6.7% respectively -- despite slightly lower growth expectations for 2024 and 2025. Reporting By Francesco Canepa; editing by Balazs KoranyiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Francesco Canepa, Balazs Koranyi Organizations: European Central Bank, Professional, ECB, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT
The survey also indicated the European Central Bank's sustained campaign of interest rate rises is starting to take its toll on consumers and denting the services sector. In our baseline case we expect subdued growth for the second half of the year, but today's data suggest the risk of a small contraction in euro zone GDP in Q3 is increasing." In France a downturn extended into July as both the services and manufacturing sectors did worse than expected. A PRICE TO PAYThe euro zone services PMI fell to 51.1 from 52.0, its lowest since January and shy of the Reuters poll forecast for 51.5. An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, fell to its lowest in over three years.
Persons: Paolo Grignani, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Jonathan Cable, John Stonestreet, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, June's, Oxford Economics, PMI, Reuters, Capital Economics, ECB, Thomson Locations: Germany, France, Europe's, Britain
Looking to next week, earnings season will ramp up — and though we'll get some important economic data, expect the corporate releases and management commentary on the post-game calls to be firmly in the driver's seat. Here are two important things to know for the week ahead. Quarterly earnings : As important as economic releases are, it's earnings that will garner the bulk of investors' attention. For those looking to review first-quarter performance ahead of these releases, keep our first-quarter earnings report card handy. Here's the full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead.
Persons: Dow, we'll, we've, Lawrence Yun, Jerome Powell's, Sartorius, Sartorius preannounced, It's, management's, We'll, Tesla, Ford's, Sherwin, Williams, Archer, Clark, Lam, Edwards Lifesciences, Hewlett, Northrop, Dr Pepper, Davidson, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, Economic, National Association of Realtors, Nine, GE Healthcare, Microsoft, YouTube, Linde, LIN, Honeywell, Aerospace, Technologies, Ford, Procter & Gamble, Dynex, HBT, Hope Bancorp, NXP Semiconductors, Cadence Design Systems, Whirlpool, Logitech International, Liberty Global, Verizon Communications, General Motors, General Electric, GE, Spotify, Raytheon Technologies, Daniels, Midland, Albertsons Companies, ACI, Polaris Industries, Inc, Dow Chemical, DOW, Xerox, Texas Instruments, WM, Canadian National Railway Company, Chubb Corporation, Universal Health Services, Powell, Boeing, Hilton, Union Pacific, General Dynamics, Quest Diagnostics, Otis Worldwide, Grill, Lam Research, eBay, EBAY, Mattel, Hewlett Packard, L3Harris Technologies, Gross, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Southwest Airlines, Mastercard, Myers Squibb, Northrop Grumman, Hertz, Tractor Supply Company, HCA Healthcare, Boston, Hershey, Comcast, Harley, Norfolk Southern, Intel, Mobile, United States Steel Corp, KLA Corporation, Boston Beer Company, Nation Entertainment, Texas, Procter, Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Charter Communications, AstraZeneca, Colgate, Palmolive, Newell Brands, Sanofi, Dwight, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Hollywood, Cleveland, Corning, Kimberly, Bristol, Norfolk
Mortgage rates drop, backing off 7%
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —US mortgage rates dipped this week, backing off 7% as inflation slows ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision meeting next week. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. “As inflation slows, mortgage rates decreased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. But as a result, Jones said, mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated for the time being.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, , Hannah Jones, Jones, Organizations: DC CNN, , Treasury Locations: Washington, today’s,
Headline inflation rates have declined, but policymakers are closely watching other measures of price pressure that signal how deeply inflation has become embedded in the British economy. In June, some of these price pressures eased: Inflation in the services sector slowed slightly to 7.2 percent, and core inflation declined for the first time since January. In January, the government pledged to halve the inflation rate by the end of this year, which would mean a fall to 5.2 percent. This partially explains Britain’s relatively high inflation rate — which is higher than in Western Europe and double the rate in the United States — but there are other reasons that inflationary pressures in Britain are strong. The Bank of England raised its interest rate a 13th time last month, to 5 percent, from 0.1 percent in late 2021.
Persons: Price, ” Andrew Goodwin, Mr, Goodwin, ” Andrew Bailey, Bailey Organizations: Oxford Economics, Bank of England, Employers Locations: British, Europe, Britain, Western Europe, United States
Analysts are turning more bullish on Microsoft and its artificial intelligence capabilities after the software giant revealed pricing for its A.I. Shares closed at a record Tuesday after Microsoft revealed a $30 fee for its monthly Copilot offering, which adds AI capabilities to Microsoft 365. The announcements led to a handful of Wall Street price target adjustments, as the company solidifies its dominance in the latest technology revolution consuming the investing community. The analyst has an overweight rating on the stock and raised his price target to $385 per share from $350. The analyst hiked his price target to $400 from $330.
Persons: chatbot, Microsoft's, Amy Hood, Mark Murphy, James, Brad Sills, Sills, Brad Zelnick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Microsoft, Meta, Bank of America Locations: ChatGPT
OTTAWA, July 18 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate dropped more than expected to a 27-month low of 2.8% in June, data showed on Tuesday, led by lower energy prices while food and shelter cost increases persisted. Month-over-month, the consumer price index was up 0.1%, Statistics Canada said, which was also lower than the 0.3% forecast. "Inflation is definitely moving in the right direction, but we're seeing stickier and more persistent core measures," said Michael Greenberg, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. The average of two of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) core measures of underlying inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, came in at 3.8% compared with 3.9% in May. "The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation, which exclude significant moves in individual categories, show that underlying price pressures remain sticky," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group.
Persons: stickier, Michael Greenberg, Royce Mendes, Mendes, We're, Jules Boudreau, Ismail Shakil, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Nivedita Balu, Dale Smith, Will Dunham, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: OTTAWA, Reuters, Statistics, Bank of Canada's, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, Canada's, Desjardins Group, The Bank of Canada, Mackenzie Investments, Canadian, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Statistics Canada, Mackenzie, China, Ottawa, Toronto
While recent inflation data was encouraging, he said, "one data point does not make a trend." Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'STRANGE BUSINESS CYCLE'Until the Fed declares its inflation war at an end, however, economists and market analysts say risks to a benign outcome will remain. "At 3.5%, July won't be the last time the Fed hikes," Furman said in an interview. Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, meanwhile, is skeptical that the impact of rapid rate hikes has already been absorbed. "To say we have the same economy with real rates at negative 2% as we do at positive 2%, I don't buy it."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Nick Bunker, Jason Furman, Obama, Furman, Ed Al, Columbia Threadneedle, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, shouldn't, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Harvard University, White, Columbia, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Thomson Locations: U.S
While recent inflation data was encouraging, he said, "one data point does not make a trend." Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'STRANGE BUSINESS CYCLE'Until the Fed declares its inflation war at an end, however, economists and market analysts say risks to a benign outcome will remain. "At 3.5%, July won't be the last time the Fed hikes," Furman said in an interview. Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, meanwhile, is skeptical that the impact of rapid rate hikes has already been absorbed. "To say we have the same economy with real rates at negative 2% as we do at positive 2%, I don't buy it."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Nick Bunker, Jason Furman, Obama, Furman, Ed Al, Columbia Threadneedle, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, shouldn't, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Harvard University, White, Columbia, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Thomson Locations: U.S
July 14 (Reuters) - BlackRock Inc (BLK.N), the world's biggest asset manager, handily beat second-quarter profit estimates but showed a slowdown in money inflows, sending shares down about 2%. Net inflows for the quarter were $80 billion, down from $89.6 billion a year ago and $110 billion in the first quarter, amid heightened economic uncertainties. "The firm's flow mix remains skewed toward lower fee strategies, which continue to weigh on organic base fee growth," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. Citigroup described the results as "a bit of a mixed quarter," given BlackRock's profit beat but lower-than-expected inflows. Shares in BlackRock are up 2.85% this year, underperforming the S&P 500 index (.SPX), which is up almost 18%.
Persons: Refinitiv IBES, Kyle Sanders, Edward Jones, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Larry Fink, Fink, Martin Small, Jaiveer Singh, Chizu Nomiyama, Mark Potter, Anna Driver Organizations: BlackRock Inc, BlackRock, Citigroup, CNBC, Thomson Locations: New York, BlackRock, Bengaluru
U.S. consumers still have a healthy balance sheet, the banks said, but warned spending was slowing and there had been a modest deterioration in some consumer debt. "The U.S. economy continues to be resilient," JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said. Investors have worried that high interest rates could push the economy into a recession, but the outlook remains uncertain. Wells CEO Charlie Scharf said the range of scenarios for the economy should narrow over the next few quarters. For now, the economy is performing better than many expected but will likely continue slowing.
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo WFC.N, Wells, Jamie Dimon, Jeremy Barnum, Charlie Scharf, Larry Fink, Wells Fargo, Scharf, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Niket Nishant, Noor Zainab Hussain, Mehnaz Yasmin, Manya, Nupur Anand, Saeed Azhar, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Citi, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Wells, Bank of America, Manya Saini, Thomson Locations: Wells, U.S, Bengaluru, New York
Mortgage rates jump higher, closing in on 7%
  + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —US mortgage rates climbed higher this week, inching closer to 7% and reaching their highest level since November. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. Mortgage rates have remained over 5% for all but one week during the past year and even went as high as 7.08%, last reached in November. “The strong job market will continue to drive demand in the economy, fuel price increases and contribute to higher inflation,” Xu said. Strong labor market encourages some buyersEven as the average mortgage rate pushed toward 7%, reaching its highest level this year last week, mortgage applications still ticked up a bit, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Jiayi Xu, ” Xu, Bob Broeksmit, Xu, Organizations: DC CNN, Mortgage, Association Locations: Washington
Here’s What Buy Side Staffers Are Buying on Sale for Prime Day
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +13 min
Here are products on sale that our team members are buying themselves—or already own and can highly recommend—during this year’s two-day Prime event. I’ve set goals to cook more than I eat out or order in to save money and for my health goals, so I’ll be purchasing this All-Clad cookware set this Prime Day for all my cooking needs. The 8-inch version is on sale for Prime Day, coming in at less than $300. Reviewers note that they’re ideal for larger hands.” —Leslie Yazel, editor, head of contentSalon-level styling tool“I bought the Revlon One Step Volumizer styling brush last Prime Day, and it has been a favorite all year. My partner always steals them when we travel, so this Prime Day, I’ll be buying him his own pair while they’re $100 off ahead of our fall wedding-season travels.” —Chao Li, head of product
Persons: what’s, juicer “ I’ve, , Nick Guy, I’ve, ” — Ian Salisbury, AirTag, Brittany Nguyen, Madeline Diamond, Emily Schwartzberg, It’s, ” — Emily Welsh, it’s, ” — Alix Milne, Rina Stone, I’ll, — Caroline Wernecke, Hydrating, — Irma Sahinovic, Astrid Stawiarz, ” — Leslie Yazel, Jessica Woodbury, I’d, Caroline Wernecke, ” — Bellamy Richardson, Bissell, ” — Chao Li Organizations: Side, Timex Men’s Expedition, Revlon, Altos, Colgate, Sony WH, 1000XM4, Sony Locations: France
The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate climbed to 6.66%, narrowly exceeding the 6.65% touched on Oct. 20 and the highest since August 2008 when it stood at 6.94%, according to data provider Moneyfacts. Governor Andrew Bailey said last month there were signs of more persistent underlying inflation pressures after the BoE unexpectedly raised its Bank Rate to 5% in an effort to tame the highest inflation rate among the world's big rich economies. Swap rates, a key measure lenders use to determine the cost of mortgage borrowing, have also soared. The surge has prompted major mortgage lenders to repeatedly reprice home loan offerings. British homebuyers typically take out mortgages with an interest rate that is fixed for two or five years, and then remortgage on to a new fixed rate or accept a variable rate.
Persons: Liz Truss, Andrew Bailey, BoE, reprice, Andrew Asaam, Suban Adbulla, Sachin Ravikumar, William Schomberg, Kate Holton, Andy Bruce Organizations: Bank of England, Nationwide, Lloyds Bank, Santander, Tuesday, Treasury, Lloyds Banking Group, Thomson Locations: Britain's, British, Halifax
Morning Bid: China disinflation a mix of good and bad
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
On the face of it, this implies there is plenty of scope to ease monetary and fiscal policy further. Yet it also underlines the scale of the challenge that Beijing faces in avoiding an outright deflationary spiral. Globally, a deflationary pulse from China could over time help to offset service-driven inflation in developed nations. Disinflation in goods is a major reason analysts expect coming U.S. CPI data to show a slowdown in June. One side effect of the surge in bond yields has been a shake-out of carry trades in the forex market.
Persons: Wayne Cole, Andrew Bailey, Jeremy Hunt, Mary Daly, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Edmund Klamann Organizations: CPI, Headline, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, San, Cleveland, Atlanta, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Beijing, China
So the BoC will press ahead and hike the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on July 12, according to 20 of 24 economists in the June 28-July 6 Reuters poll. That would amount to 475 basis points in total since March 2022, taking the overnight rate to a new 22-year high. Inflation is not expected to fall to the central bank's 2% target at least until 2025, according to the poll. The central bank was predicted to keep rates on hold at 5.00% until Q2 2024, said a majority of economists. Rates staying high for longer is expected to boost the Canadian dollar, one of the best performers among G10 currencies this year.
Persons: Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Claire Fan, Kit Juckes, Milounee Purohit, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Ross Finley, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank of Canada, Reuters, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Gross, RBC Economics, Canadian, U.S, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU
Rosenblatt Securities is looking toward the second half of the year for investors. Our price target of $200 is supported by a mid-20s P/E on earnings power of over $6.00," the note said. NVDA AMD YTD mountain Both AMD and Nvidia have benefited from the explosion in artificial intelligence so far this year. In media and entertainment, Lions Gate Entertainment class B stock made the Rosenblatt list with a $17 per share price target. Rosenblatt is also eyeing broadband company Harmonic , with a $22 per share price target that implies about 35% upside.
Persons: Rosenblatt, Rosenblatt's Michael Kiernan, Barton Crockett Organizations: Securities, AMD, Nvidia, Galaxy, Toronto Stock Exchange, Lions, Entertainment
LONDON/HONG KONG, July 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks held steady on Tuesday, as investors balanced the inflationary force of rising oil prices with hopes that central banks would not over-tighten monetary policy into a potential recession. Earlier in the session, Australia's central bank held interest rates steady at 4.1%, saying it needed time to assess the economic impact of its rate hikes so far. Complicating the outlook for inflation, oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed supply cuts for August by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent crude futures climbed 0.6% to $75.09 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate crude adding the same amount to $70.23. "At least the improved supply-demand imbalance seems to be having an effect on price pressures," Capital Economics global economist Ariane Curtis said.
Persons: Europe's, Brent, Ariane Curtis, Curtis, Manishi Raychaudhuri, Raychaudhuri, Schatz, Paul Volcker, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes, Himani Sarkar, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Wall, West Texas, Institute of Supply Management, Economics, Asia, BNP Paribas, Treasury, Independence, U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Singapore
In Asia, while factory activity expanded marginally in China, it contracted in Japan and South Korea as Asia's economic recovery struggled to maintain momentum. REUTERS/Siyi LiuChina's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI eased to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May, the private survey showed. The figure, combined with Friday's official survey that showed factory activity extending declines, adds to evidence the world's No. South Korea's PMI fell to 47.8 in June, extending its downturn to a record 12th consecutive month on weak demand in Asia and Europe. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, the PMI surveys showed.
Persons: Rory Fennessy, lockdowns, Toru Nishihama, Siyi Liu China's, Jonathan Cable, Sam Holmes, David Evans Organizations: PMI, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, P, Dai, Research, REUTERS, P Global, Reuters, Jibun, of, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Japan, South Korea, China, TOKYO, Europe, Britain, Asia, United States, European, U.S, Dezhou, Shandong province, South, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, of Japan's
While manufacturing activity expanded marginally in China, it contracted in powerhouses Japan and South Korea as Asia's fragile economic recovery struggled to maintain momentum. New orders from overseas customers decreased in June at the fastest rate in four months reflecting feeble demand from China, the Japan PMI survey showed. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, the PMI surveys showed. Asia's economy is heavily reliant on the strength of China's economy, which saw growth rebound in the first quarter but subsequently fell short of expectations. The fate of Asia's economy, including China's, will have a huge impact on the global economy with aggressive monetary tightening to curb inflation likely to weigh on U.S. and European growth.
Persons: Liu, lockdowns, Toru Nishihama, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Dai, Research, P Global, Reuters, Jibun, Japan PMI, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, Japan, South Korea, TOKYO, Asia, U.S, Europe, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia
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Persons: Dow Jones
Elsewhere, the U.K. is predicted to have the highest inflation out of all advanced economies this year. The country reported consumer prices that rose by an annual 8.7% in May – hotter than expected. They were mostly energy or financial stocks. They offer the highest dividend yields on the list, at more than 10%. Financial services firm Fifth Third Bancorp and insurance company Fidelity National Financial also made the screen, with dividend yields of around 5%.
Persons: Devon, , Jeff Cox Organizations: CNBC Pro, Natural Resources, Devon Energy, EOG Resources, Fifth Third Bancorp, Fidelity National Financial Locations: U.S, OPEC
Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, has a bold market call: that oil prices could soar more than 100% in the next few years. The group expects global oil demand to hit 110 million barrels a day in about 20 years , pushing the world's energy demand up by 23%. Others have also taken a bullish stance on oil prices over recent weeks. Nevertheless, it said: "We believe that, at some point in the coming weeks, market fundamentals will drive the oil market. Nuttall likes Cenovus Energy and MEG Energy .
Persons: Bill Smead, Smead, CNBC's, Brent, Eric Nuttall, Nuttall, Warren Buffett, – CNBC's Ying Shan Lee Organizations: Smead Capital Management, OPEC, Ninepoint Partners, Saudi, Rystad Energy, Energy, Fund, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Cenovus, MEG Energy Locations: United States, Saudi Arabia, Europe
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that the bank was "justified" in its decision to raise interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points in June. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Wednesday that the bank was "justified" in its decision to raise interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points last week. Bailey said he accepted the criticism, but insisted that the Monetary Policy Committee remains committed to its task: to return inflation to 2%. Bailey was speaking on a panel alongside fellow central bank chiefs from the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he anticipated further interest rate hikes ahead, potentially at an aggressive pace.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Bailey, CNBC's Sara Eisen, , Jerome Powell Organizations: England, Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Central, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan Locations: Sintra , Portugal, Britain
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation, interest rates likely to be stickier than markets are pricing, says Goldman's OppenheimerPeter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs chief global equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Oppenheimer's takeaways from the ECB Forum on Central Banking, what future policy would look like, and more.
Persons: Goldman's Oppenheimer Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs Organizations: ECB, Central Banking
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