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Nearly 165 million people were either in jobs or looking for them last month, a record high that showed a long-hoped-for improvement in labor supply. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jobs report is "the embodiment of the soft landing narrative - this idea that can you have a strong labor market with slowing wage growth," said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. Ideally, she said, that should allow the Fed to slow and soon pause its interest rate hikes. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTraders took the report as evidence the Fed's work is near to being done. Still, she said, "inflation remains far too high, despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern."

☆ Morning Bid: Not so fast
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. Or so you might think looking at what consumers reckon will happen to price pressures over the coming year. The Federal Reserve keeps declaring its intention to fight inflation with both barrels, which inevitably means more rate hikes. Sure, it's down from the 4.7% in Q2 and it's the third and final reading of what happened months ago now. A look at the data shows consumers have typically been a lot more pessimistic about inflation than they've needed to be.

☆ Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, expects more rises to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England raised its key interest rate to 3.5% from 3% on Thursday, its ninth rate rise in a row as it tries to speed inflation's return to target after price growth hit a 41-year high in October. The BoE statement did not repeat unusual language from November when it said rates were unlikely to need to rise as far as markets expected. The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates for the fourth time in a row on Thursday, although by less than at its last two meetings. Official figures on Wednesday showed consumer price inflation fell to 10.7% in November from 11.1% in October. That 0.4 percentage point fall in the annual rate was the largest since July 2021.

☆ Stocks are set to fall further in 2023, and investors haven't priced in a growth slowdown with inflation set to hammer corporate profits, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The growth slowdown is not yet priced," Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson told CNBC on Thursday about the potentially rough ride lower for the S&P 500 next year. Wilson has been warning of a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023. And the real question is, 'What does that mean about growth?,'" Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, said on CNBC. And that's what's going to determine the winners — it's a stock-picking game." Wilson has projected a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023.

☆ The worst of inflation is likely over, but the worst for the economy probably isn't
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

While the inflation rate is still extraordinarily high, there's widespread agreement that the peak has passed. In fact, the only sector where interest rate increases have seemed to hit so far has been housing. So with lots of policy tightening still in the pipeline, softer inflation's accompanying economic slowdown is yet to come. The Fed's critics worry that the rate increases may have gone too far and could be a severe weight on the economy once inflation wears off. However, following the CPI report traders priced in a lower "terminal rate," or end point for the Fed rate hikes.

☆ Heat pumps are an energy upgrade for homeowners that's becoming a climate and financial winner
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Cheryl Winokur Munk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Heat pumps are becoming more popular for residential housing with energy prices increasing and the need to reduce use of fossil fuel heating systems. Thinking about a home heat pump? The use of heat pumps will become more common as governments legislate their adoption. Here are four important things to know about upgrading your home to a heat pump system. "While there's an upfront cost, millions of homeowners would save money with a heat pump over the life of the device," he said.

☆ Who to tip over the holidays and how much to give, according to etiquette experts
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

During the season of giving, good etiquette dictates that you offer a tip to the people who make life a little easier throughout the year. Before you panic about adding 20 people to your budget, the first thing to know about holiday tipping is to give what you can afford. "Good tipping feels good for everyone involved," says Daniel Post Senning, co-author of "Emily Post Etiquette, The Centennial Edition." That means if any of the recommended tip amounts feel steep, it's not out of line to adjust downward to fit your budget. Remember, these aren't requirements, but suggestions meant to give you an idea of whom you might want to thank this holiday season.

☆ Inflation boosts U.S. household spending by $433 a month, on average, Moody’s finds
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Hourly earnings fell 2.8%, on average, in the year to October after accounting for inflation, according to the BLS. Your personal inflation rate depends on the types of goods and services you buy, and other factors such as geography. The Moody's estimate of inflation's dollar impact analyzes October's annual inflation rate and typical household outlays as outlined by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. "There's no one silver bullet," Joseph Bert, a certified financial planner who serves as chairman and CEO of Certified Financial Group, told CNBC. Joseph Bert certified financial planner and chairman of Certified Financial Group

☆ Brian Sullivan's RBI: Energy inflation's impact on home heating costs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBrian Sullivan's RBI: Energy inflation's impact on home heating costsBrian Sullivan's daily RBI segment on Worldwide Exchange focuses on the impact of rising energy prices on home heating costs.

☆ Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says the US rental market is cooling off – and official price stats overstate the inflation threat
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Slowing growth in US rents could mean the inflation threat is fading, Paul Krugman said. Krugman noted the slowdown is likely to have a large but delayed impact on inflation. Krugman noted that shelter makes up more than 30% of the Consumer Price Index, and 40% of core CPI, which excludes food and energy. Yet a cooler rental market doesn't necessarily spell the end of America's inflation woes, he noted. Now rental growth appears to be tapering off, Krugman likely feels greater conviction in that view.

☆ The Fed's last rate hike will come in January, but stocks will still be under pressure from dismal earnings in 2023, Morgan Stanley strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Fed could stop hiking rates as soon as January of next year, according to Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets. Sheets pointed to evidence of falling inflation, though he noted central bankers would likely keep monitoring the economy after pausing rate hikes. But while investors are hoping a pause could spark a new rally, stocks will still be under pressure next year on poor earnings, he warned. But central bankers risk undoing the tightening they've done so far by pausing rate hikes, Sheets pointed out. Stocks are still likely to face downward pressure with dismal earnings into 2023, Sheets said.

☆ Abercrombie sees better holiday-quarter sales, posts surprise profit
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Ananya Mariam Rajesh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Ohio-based apparel retailer's shares that have lost nearly half of their value this year were up about 19% after the company also reported third-quarter sales above Wall Street estimates, defying inflation's impact on non-essential spending. Chief Executive Officer Fran Horowitz in a post-earnings call said the company expects the fourth quarter to "mirror more pre-pandemic" holiday. Abercrombie, however, said there was a little bit of softness in demand during late October and maybe into the first week of November. Abercrombie expects fourth-quarter net sales to fall about 2% to 4% in fiscal 2022, compared with analysts' average estimate of a 6.3% drop, according to Refinitiv IBES data. Excluding items, it reported a profit of 1 cent per share in the third quarter, compared with estimates of a loss of 16 cents.

☆ Financial markets not showing too much stress, even as the crypto complex gets dismantled
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. But the point is, stocks have not been oblivious to slowdown risk to this point. Part of this is because energy firms are nicely profitable even at $75-$85 crude and are the rare group showing earnings growth. So far, the financial markets have not shown particular stress over the crypto unwind. Almost no movement in VIX, with modest index moves, expiration often pinning indexes in a narrow band and holiday-slowed trading ahead next week.

☆ New Zealand's RBNZ seen raising rates by historic 75 bps
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Reuters Poll: RBNZ monetary policy outlookThe largest banks in the country - ANZ, ASB, Kiwi Bank, Bank of New Zealand and Westpac - expect a 75 bp hike on Wednesday, matching the recent pace of the U.S. Federal Reserve. "We are forecasting the OCR to peak at 5.0%, via another 75 bp hike in February on a 'let's just get it done' basis. If data cools more rapidly than expected the RBNZ could well slow the pace at that point." Rates were expected to peak at 4.75% and remain unchanged until the end of next year, according to the median view in the poll. According to the latest RBNZ survey, inflation is expected to ease only modestly over the coming year and will be higher than previously predicted.

☆ I think you'll see some retailers continue to do well: Former CEO of Walmart U.S. Bill Simon
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI think you'll see some retailers continue to do well: Former CEO of Walmart U.S. Bill SimonFormer CEO of Walmart U.S. Bill Simon joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss inflation's impact on consumer spending, food products sales and pricing in cost increases as inflation remains high.

☆ There's a symmetrical relationship between inflation's rise and fall, says Nancy Tengler
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a symmetrical relationship between inflation's rise and fall, says Nancy TenglerLaffer-Tengler Investment's Nancy Tengler joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the duration of today's rally, the implications of midterm election results, and some stock names benefiting from the digital revolution.

☆ Germany's economic 'wise ones' less pessimistic than govt on looming recession -source
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Germany will not face as severe a recession next year as currently predicted by the government, according to the so-called five "wise ones" who advise Berlin on economic policy. The advisors see Germany's economy shrinking by 0.2% in 2023, versus the official forecast of a 0.4% contraction, a person familiar with their annual report told Reuters on Tuesday. The economic advisory council is also slightly more optimistic about 2022 in its annual report, set to be released on Wednesday and first reported by Spiegel weekly. The top income tax rate should be raised or an energy solidarity tax imposed on high earners, the advisors said in their annual report, according to the Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Such measures would "increase the accuracy of the overall package and signal that the energy crisis must be overcome with solidarity", Sueddeutsche Zeitung quoted the annual report as saying.

☆ Midterms could be a 'game changer' for stocks - and experts see big upside for the S&P 500 this election cycle.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Whether or not this means Democrats hold onto their majority or Republicans claim victory in today's elections is still an open question. Early voters cast their ballots in Atlanta, Georgia in the 2018 midterm elections in October. If Republicans gain seats in today's midterm elections, the thinking is that Democrats would have a harder time passing aggressive fiscal spending plans. What's your view on how a Democrat or Republican victory in today's midterm elections impacts the stock market? Goldman Sachs named which stocks to buy now that can help you capitalize on gains during Tuesday's midterm elections.

☆ Germany's economic council less pessimistic than govt on looming recession -Source
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The five-member economic advisory council sees Germany's economy shrinking by 0.2% in 2023, versus the official forecast of a 0.4% contraction, a person familiar with their annual report told Reuters on Tuesday. The council is also slightly more optimistic about 2022 in its annual report, set to be released on Wednesday and first reported by Spiegel weekly. The Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily said the panel of advisers envisaged inflation of 7.4% next year. The top income tax rate should be raised or an energy solidarity tax imposed on high earners, the advisers said in their annual report, according to Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Such measures would "increase the accuracy of the overall package and signal that the energy crisis must be overcome with solidarity," Sueddeutsche Zeitung quoted the annual report as saying.

☆ Forget the culture wars: Democrats and Republicans are focusing their midterm-election closing arguments on Medicare and Social Security
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Jason Lalljee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Democrats are challenging that by framing themselves as defenders of Medicare and Social Security. Since relief on sky-high inflation or the housing crisis isn't imminent, Democrats have turned to Republican plans to privatize and make cuts to Social Security and Medicare. In a speech at the Democratic National Committee last week, Biden used the phrase "Social Security and Medicare" 11 times while countering Republicans' rhetoric around reforming both programs. Republicans' proposed budget points to cuts, but they're denying that's the planRepublicans have said Democrats are misrepresenting their comments on Social Security and Medicare. Arrington has repeatedly introduced legislation that would prevent people from receiving both Social Security disability benefits and Social Security unemployment benefits at the same time — called "double dipping" by critics.

☆ Inflation remains on voters' minds ahead of midterm elections, says Rep. Ro Khanna
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation remains on voters' minds ahead of midterm elections, says Rep. Ro KhannaRep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss inflation's potential impact on the upcoming midterm elections and weighs in on President Joe Biden's energy plan.

☆ Housing is on the verge of a correction and Americans are feeling less and less upbeat about the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

And no wonder — the economy is giving Americans less and less reason for optimism. The US housing market isn't just slowing down, it's in the early stages of a major correction. According to the latest consumer confidence report, Americans are feeling downbeat across the board. In Franco's words: "The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80 — a level associated with recession — suggesting recession risks appear to be rising." Here are the latest market moves.

☆ Gas prices cause consumer uncertainty heading into holiday season, says Conference Board's Odland
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGas prices cause consumer uncertainty heading into holiday season, says Conference Board's OdlandSteve Odland, The Conference Board CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss inflation's impact on consumer confidence.

☆ Over half of US workers surveyed want to work overtime or get extra shifts to make more money as cost-of-living expenses continue to rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( Britney Nguyen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

57% of US workers in a new survey said they want to work overtime as the cost of living rises. Almost 70% of working parents surveyed said they don't earn enough to keep up, and 64% want more work hours. Over 60% of working parents surveyed said they want to work more hours to get paid more. Compared to last year, 64% of workers surveyed said living expenses are harder to pay for now. Forty-three percent of working parents said they are looking for a new job, and almost half are looking for a second job.

☆ Nancy Pelosi says Democrats need to get better at talking about inflation — but Republicans 'ain't got nothing'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Nancy Pelosi said Democrats need to message better on inflation in an interview with Punchbowl News. Polling consistently shows that the economy and inflation are top of mind as Democrats and Republicans duke it out for the House and Senate. Right now, Democrats are barely clinging to razor-thin majorities in both chambers, and economic concerns could push voters to the right. In an interview with Punchbowl News, Pelosi — who's previously expressed confidence that Democrats will pick up seats in the House — said Democrats need to make their message on inflation better. We'll have to message it better in the next three weeks ahead," Pelosi told Punchbowl.

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