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☆ Futures muted as Fed caution sets in, JPMorgan to buy First Republic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The rescue comes less than two months after a deposit flight from U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank forced the Fed to step in with emergency measures to stabilize markets. Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is set to report later this week. Markets should take today's news in stride knowing that the repeated bank failures should now have the Fed back on its heels and defanged moving forward." ET, Dow e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 3.75 points, or 0.09%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.1%. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Futures muted ahead of Fed meet this week; First Republic Bank shares tank
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Analysts now expect first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies to fall 1.9% from a year earlier, compared with a 5.1% fall expected at the start of April, according to Refinitiv data. Meanwhile, First Republic Bank's (FRC.N) shares tanked 38.5% in premarket trading. The rescue comes after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, amid a deposit flight, forced the U.S. central bank to step in with emergency measures to stabilize markets. The KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) and the S&P 500 Banks index (.SPXBK) have lost 22% and 10%, respectively, so far this year. ET, Dow e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis remained unchanged, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 1 point, or 0.01%.

☆ Morning Bid: Another one bites the dust
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

May 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Amanda Cooper. Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the banking system, First Republic Bank has folded and U.S. regulators have agreed to sell its assets to JPMorgan. A Reuters poll of economists offers a forecast of 46.7 for the ISM manufacturing index, which would mark an improvement on March's three-year low of 46.3, but it would still be the sixth straight month of contraction. ISM Manufacturing PMIEvents to watch out for on Monday:* U.S. Institute for Supply Management index* S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final index* Three- and six-month Treasury bill auctions. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ US manufacturing contracts again in April, but pace slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 47.1 last month from 46.3 in March, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. The ISM said 73% of manufacturing gross domestic product was contracting, up from 70% in March. "The proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent - a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness - was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Only two of the six biggest manufacturing industries, petroleum and coal products as well as transportation equipment, reported growth. Higher prices align with government data showing wages and salaries in the manufacturing industry growing solidly in the first quarter.

☆ Layoffs loom in the US manufacturing sector as backlogs shrink
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

And surveys from the Institute for Supply Management show that the manufacturing sector has been contracting for several months, while fewer manufacturers report an increase in backlogs. “We’re only seeing a gradual pullback in hiring for manufacturing, even as new demand slows, because these backlogs are still helping sustain activity,” she said. Manufacturing saw job losses in February for the first time in 21 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There were additional manufacturing job losses in the following month. However, while manufacturing layoffs are expected, they are likely to be limited.

The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 53.7, the highest reading in a year, from 52.6 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI falling to 51.5. Flash PMIIn the euro zone, the bloc's dominant services industry saw already-buoyant demand rise too, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago. "The PMI sheds a positive light on the economic performance in the euro zone, as a pickup in service sector activity is boosting growth," said Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, noting manufacturing weakness remained a concern.

☆ US homebuilder sentiment improves further; NY state manufacturing rebounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Other data on Monday showed manufacturing activity in New York state increased for the first time in five months. Housing and manufacturing have been hammered by the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. The survey's measure of current sales conditions rose two points to 51. The survey's measure of future business conditions rose to 6.6 from 2.9 in March. The capital spending index rose 3.2 points to 16.5, while the technology spending measure fell to 10.3 from 13.3 in March.

☆ A 31-year market vet who called the current bear market says the S&P 500 has another 45% downside as investors remain blind to signs that a recession is hurtling toward the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, stock market investors remain bullish, he said. He's been warning of a significant stock market decline since late 2021,"People are ignoring all the lessons of history," Wolfenbarger told Insider on Friday. His bearish outlook stems from how high stock valuations are relative to 10-year Treasury yields. Wolfenbarger also has company in thinking that stock market investors aren't heeding the warnings of a coming downturn. Yet, the stock market doesn't seem to reflect this uncertainty, he said.

☆ US job growth expected to moderate but remain at brisk pace in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Economists said the revisions brought the claims series closer to other data that have suggested the labor market was losing speed. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this week offered a downbeat assessment of the labor market. The labor market is expected to significantly loosen up starting in the second quarter as companies respond more to a slowdown in demand caused by the higher borrowing costs. Small businesses, like restaurants and bars, have been the main drivers of job growth since the recovery from the pandemic. "This presents a lot of downside risks for the labor market," said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies in Bloomfield, New Jersey.

☆ Where jobs were gained and lost in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Government employers and the professional and business services industry also hired at a solid clip last month. Strongest gainsLeisure and hospitality employers added 72,000 jobs last month, the most of any industry. Health care businesses added 34,000 jobs and employment in the business services sector — which includes many white-collar jobs such as accountants, engineers, and consultants — grew by 39,000. The construction industry lost 9,000 jobs in March, the first decline in construction employment in more than a year and the largest job loss in the sector since May 2021 -— though still a drop of just under 1.1%. But while new residential construction has slowed over the past year, construction jobs have held up, mostly because of a backlog in construction projects, Swonk said.

☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; layoffs jump in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The government revised data for some prior years and introduced new seasonal factors for both initial and the so-called continuing claims. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this week suggested that the labor market was fraying at the edges. LABOR MARKET LOOSENINGThe Labor Department reported on Tuesday that job openings fell below 10 million at the end of February for first time in nearly two years. The claims data has no bearing on March's employment report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday. Cooling labor market conditions could allow the Fed to halt its fastest interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s.

The slew of soft economic data has added to fears of an impending recession in the world's largest economy, putting a lid on risk appetite and sending traders in search of some safe haven assets. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 101.95, having slid to a two-month trough of 101.40 in the previous session. The Japanese yen also found some support from safe haven bids and was last roughly 0.2% higher at 131.01 per dollar. "Weak economic data continues to weigh in on investor sentiment, triggering a flight-to-safety bid," analysts at Westpac said in a note to clients. The soft data sent U.S. shares lower on Wednesday STX/ while Treasuries advanced, which saw the benchmark 10-year yield falling to its lowest since September .

☆ Dollar dips against most currencies ahead of US nonfarm payrolls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday, when many markets around the world are closed, will follow disappointing manufacturing and services sector data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and private employment figures on Wednesday. In afternoon trading, the U.S. dollar index, which hit a two-month low this week, thanks in part to a drop in Treasury yields, was down 0.1% at 101.81. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended April 1. Economists polled by Reuters expect non-farm payrolls to have grown by 239,000 in March, following February's 311,000 gain. The non-farm payrolls number has been far more prone to delivering upside surprises than misses in the last year or two.

S&P 500's busiest tradesThe S&P 500 declined 0.25% to end the session at 4,090.38 points. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsOf the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, seven declined, led lower by consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD), down 2.04%, followed by a 1.3% loss in industrials (.SPLRCI). Analysts on average expect aggregate S&P 500 company earnings for the first quarter to have fallen 5% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S. Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.2-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 11 new highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 39 new highs and 269 new lows.

Driving the recession fears, the ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March. S&P 500's busiest tradesThe S&P 500 was down 0.52% at 4,079.37 points. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, six declined, led lower by consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD), down 1.93%, followed by a 1.65% loss in information technology (.SPLRCT). Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.5-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted eight new highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 25 new highs and 218 new lows.

Earlier this week data showed falling factory orders and soft manufacturing activity. Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May stood at 60.5%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike was at 39.5%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Defensive stocks such as consumer staples (.SPLRCS) were in the green among major S&P 500 sectors, with healthcare (.SPXHC) and utilities (.SPLRCU) hitting their highest in close to two months. The benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq are now on track for their first weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 23 new highs and 185 new lows.

☆ US services sector growth slows; price pressures abating
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Despite the pullback in growth in the services sector, Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee noted that "the majority of respondents report a positive outlook on business conditions." The services sector is being supported by consumers switching spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. ISM services PMITRADE DEFICIT WIDENSWhile accommodation and food services businesses reported that "traffic is recovering and nearly flat," they added "we are optimistic about the coming months." With demand cooling, services sector inflation continued to subside, though it remains elevated. Services sector employment growth also moderated.

The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labor market. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. Another report on Wednesday also indicated continued economic weakness, this time in the services sector.

The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employment rose by 145,000 jobs last month, compared with economists' projections of an increase of 200,000 jobs, adding to recent signs of a cooling labor market. With growing concerns about a worsening economic outlook following the recent turmoil in the banking sector, market expectations have shifted in favor of the U.S. central bank hitting the brakes on its interest rate hikes. "But at the same time, I think investors are closely watching to make sure that we don't fall into a deep recession." Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May shot up to 62.2%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike fell to 37.8%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. All eyes are now on the non-farm payrolls data for March, a more comprehensive employment report, that is due on Friday for more conclusive clues on the state of the labor market.

But manufacturers across the eurozone have reported business activity has been falling for nine months since June 2022 according to purchasing managers’ surveys. U.S. manufacturers have reported business activity has been falling for five months since November 2022 according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s purchasing survey. But the deficit had narrowed from 63 million barrels (-15% or -2.05 standard deviations) at the end of June 2022, according to data from Euroilstock. U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories were 18 million barrels (-14% or -1.08 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average on March 31. In Singapore, distillate inventories have risen in 12 of the 15 most recent weeks by a total of 3 million barrels, according to data from Enterprise Singapore.

The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employment rose by 145,000 jobs last month, compared with economists' projections of an increase of 200,000 jobs, adding to recent signs of a cooling economy. Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May shot up to 60.8%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike fell to 39.2%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Defensive stocks such as healthcare (.SPXHC), utilities (.SPLRCU) and consumer staples (.SPLRCS) were in the green among major S&P 500 sectors. All eyes are now on the non-farm payrolls data for March, a more comprehensive employment report, that is due on Friday for further clues on the state of the labor market. Both the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) are now on track for their first weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week.

☆ Futures fall as investors await key economic data amid recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ET, Dow e-minis were down 46 points, or 0.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 8.75 points, or 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 30.5 points, or 0.23%. Weak job openings data and falling factory orders on Tuesday followed soft manufacturing activity data on Monday, sparking fresh concerns about economic outlook and pushing the S&P 500 (.SPX) to snap a four-day winning streak in the prior session. Escalating oil prices following the OPEC+ group's output cuts have also worsened the outlook for inflation, adding to investors' anxiety. Both the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) are on track to notch weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Nivedita BhattacharjeeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. service sector slows in March; inflation cooling - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It was the first time since 2009 that all subcomponents of the manufacturing PMI fell below the 50 threshold. The services sector is being supported by consumers switching spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. With demand cooling, services sector inflation continued to subside, though it remains elevated. The services sector is now at the heart of the fight against inflation as services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to interest rate increases. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

☆ Dollar slides on sluggish US data, Aussie steadies ahead of RBA
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Against the sliding dollar, the British pound and the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose to multi-week highs in early Asia trade on Tuesday. The kiwi rose 0.2% to $0.6310, its highest since mid-February, while the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower at 102.02, having fallen more than 0.5% on Monday. "The closest thing we get to good news in (the) report is that the slowing in the factory sector is pushing prices lower and supply chains are continuing to heal, benefiting from the slack. The RBA will pause policy tightening according to a poll of analysts, although a strong minority still forecast a hike. Data out last week showed Australian inflation slowed to an eight-month low in February, due in part to a sharp retreat in prices for holiday travel and accommodation.

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves midday: General Motors, AMC, Virgin Orbit, Kinross Gold and more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Virgin Orbit — Shares tanked more than 22% after the California-based satellite launch company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Virgin Orbit said it is looking to sell its assets and will lay off nearly all of its workforce. AMC's "APE" preferred shares gained 8.5% following the news. Etsy – Etsy shares gained 2.4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the e-commerce stock to overweight from neutral, saying that its marketplace strengths should help revamp active buyer growth. Gold miners — Shares of mining companies rallied as gold futures popped on Tuesday.

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