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☆ Bitcoin’s peak could be a harbinger of a stock market top next, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"Bitcoin & Nasdaq 100 reflect the speculative fever fostered by cheap money after dovish Fed pivots, such as occurred 4Q 2023," Bannister said. Shortly after, on March 28, the S & P 500 reached a new intraday all-time high . .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD If was indeed its peak, that could mean a weaker Nasdaq 100 for six months, Bannister said. Additionally the S & P 500, which is cap weighted, could struggle against the equal-weight S & P 500 for about six months. "When the equal-weighted S & P 500 out-performs the S & P 500, then value tends to out-perform growth," he said.

Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister, Bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Big Tech, Nasdaq, Big Tech Nasdaq

☆ The Fed's first rate cut is still on pace for June with inflation dropping like a rock, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's first rate cut is still on track to come in June, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. Yet investors are only pricing in a 57% chance of a rate cut by June, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementThe Fed is still poised to issue its first rate cut in June as the pace of inflation continues to slow, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. All that points to a Fed that could be poised to cut rates sooner than markets are expecting, which is good news for stocks. Meanwhile, just 57% of investors are expecting the Fed to issue the first rate cut in June.

Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, —, Tom Lee, Lee, That's, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, Fed, University of Michigan's, France —, Traders Locations: France

☆ Mayfield: Need to still see a dovish tilt from the Fed for the market rally to continue
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMayfield: Need to still see a dovish tilt from the Fed for the market rally to continueBaird's Ross Mayfield discusses why the breadth of the market continues to impress, even as investors pare back expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.

Persons: Baird's Ross Mayfield, pare Organizations: Fed

☆ Why the Fed's first rate cut could be delayed until March 2025 if inflation stays stubbornly high
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stubbornly high PCE inflation readings might make it difficult to lower them in June as many expect. BofA still expects three rate cuts this year, but says the next PCE readings will determine this. AdvertisementThat's because comparisons with last year's figures mean that year-over-year core PCE inflation is unlikely to decline further in the second half of 2024. "Base effects for year-over-year core PCE inflation are favorable through May, but unfavorable for six of the last seven months of the year," analysts said in a note. Prints of 30bp or more on the next two core PCE readings would probably take June off the table, particularly if activity holds up," they wrote.

Persons: BofA, —, it's, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Chair Powell says the Fed isn’t more tolerant of higher inflation. Some economists disagree
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some economists interpreted that as a sign that the Fed is now more tolerant of higher inflation. Powell pushed back on the perception that the central bank has grown more comfortable with inflation being higher for longer than expected in his post-meeting news conference. and my sense coming out of this month’s meeting was that Fed Chair Powell wants to get this easing cycle going sooner rather than later. What’s allowing the Fed to be patient or more tolerant of higher inflation? They’re willing to essentially look through some of the bumpiness in the inflation data at the beginning of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That’s, Powell, “, ” Powell, “ We’re, Mohamed El, Erian, ”, Bell, Lydia Boussour, they’re, What’s, we’ve, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Read, Levi Strauss, Tupperware Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Fed, Home Depot, Home, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Maine Foods, Dave, Buster’s Entertainment, US Labor Department, US Commerce Department, Stanford University Locations: EY, Cal

☆ Dollar dips, yen draws support from Tokyo's jawboning
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was on the back foot on Tuesday, owing to profit taking and pressured in part by a slightly stronger yen as Japanese government officials continued with their jawboning to defend the currency. The dollar was on the back foot on Tuesday, owing to profit taking and pressured in part by a slightly stronger yen as Japanese government officials continued with their jawboning to defend the currency. "But it's even tougher for the (dollar) to weaken when other central banks were sounding more dovish than a dovish Fed." The dollar index was last 0.02% lower at 104.20, while the euro rose 0.03% to $1.0840. "While they say that the fundamentals don't justify the price, the market's telling them something else," said IG's Sycamore.

Persons: he's, Tony Sycamore, Thierry Wizman, Shunichi Suzuki Organizations: New Zealand, Federal, IG, FX, Macquarie, Fed, Japanese Finance, Bank of Japan's Locations: U.S, Japan, United States, Sycamore

☆ Intervention threat curbs dollar's ascent towards new high on the yen
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was on the front foot on Monday and kept the yen pinned near a multi-decade low, though the threat of currency intervention from Japanese authorities prevented the greenback from heading further north. "Japanese officials' verbal intervention is making 152 a very strong near-term resistance for dollar/yen," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Markets are fully aware of a potential actual FX intervention from authorities, so I think that's keeping dollar/yen from moving substantially higher. "I think there is still a high risk that they will come in to prop up the yen if dollar/yen were to surge materially perhaps to 155. The yuan has been pressured by growing market expectations of further monetary easing to prop up the world's second-largest economy.

Persons: Carol Kong, That's, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Chris Weston Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Sterling, Financial Times, ECB, New Zealand Locations: Japan, United States

☆ How to trade the market after this week's rally to record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell also noted that a strong labor market wouldn't deter the central bank from cutting rates. Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC he expects the Russell 2000 to rally 50% . "I think the Russell 2000 represents sort of the best of things to happen when the Fed starts cutting." The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 1.6% this week. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF tracks that index.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Blair Boyer, Boyer, Goldman Sachs, Tom Lee, Russell, —, Lee Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Dow, CNBC, Nvidia, Microsoft, Devices, Visa, Blackwell, JPMorgan, NVIDIA, Fed, GE Vernova, New York Stock Exchange, GE Locations: Jennison

☆ An even better way to play a potential small-cap stock breakout, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Todd Gordon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Is the breakout from resistance likely and should you consider allocating exposure to this basket of 2000 small capitalization stocks? I think the breakout should occur, but I don't think we should increase exposure to the Russell 2000 for two reasons. Ideally the rotation was going to carry through into the upper-right green quadrant indicating confirmed outperformance relative to the S & P 500. I'm not saying we shun small caps all together and continue to focus on the large caps. We need to focus on fundamentally sound small cap companies and we can do so through the Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF (CALF) .

Persons: Russell, Powell, Gordon, POWL Organizations: Federal Reserve, Powell Industries, Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management

☆ How to hedge your winning chip trade if you nailed the AI rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-22 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, I want to establish an insurance trade in the event chip stocks come up for a breather short-term or reverse some of this rally. SOXX .SPX 6M mountain iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) vs. the S & P 500 The continued euphoria and associated demand for artificial intelligence semiconductors has boosted several chip stocks such as Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD. These three stocks alone are collectively up 150% on a one year look back and also make up nearly 25% of iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) . DISCLOSURES: (Long SOXX, Long this put spread) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Long Organizations: Federal Reserve, Semiconductor, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, iShares Semiconductor Locations: U.S

☆ Switzerland becomes first major economy to cut interest rates in surprise move
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-21 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Swiss national flag hangs from the Federal Palace, Switzerland's parliament building, in Bern, Switzerland, on Thursday, Dec. 13, 2018. The Swiss National Bank cut its inflation forecast and showed no inclination of moving off its crisis-era settings, citing the francs strength and mounting global risks. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the Swiss central bank to hold rates at 1.75%. According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years," the bank said. Swiss inflation continued to fall in February, hitting 1.2%.

Persons: Stefan Wermuth, Thomas Jordan, SNB Organizations: Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Capital Economics, Bank, Capital Locations: Switzerland's, Bern, Switzerland, Swiss

☆ Yen holds nerve as BOJ decision looms; dollar resurgent
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The yen was last little changed at 149.14 per dollar, while the Australian dollar fell 0.06% $0.6556. Against the euro, the yen steadied at 162.18, with the Japanese currency likewise little changed against the Aussie at 97.78. So BOJ's decisions generally are, as far as the yen is concerned, a matter of secondary importance," said Berry. "Holding policy rates steady and policy guidance broadly unchanged seems like a reasonably straightforward decision in the presence of high uncertainty," said Carl Ang, fixed income research analyst at MFS Investment Management. The New Zealand dollar was similarly pinned near Monday's two-week low and last bought $0.6079.

Persons: Gareth Berry, It's, they're, it's, Berry, Carl Ang, Sterling, —, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, Aussie, Nikkei, Macquarie, Federal Reserve, MFS Investment Management, U.S ., New Zealand Locations: Bath, England, Asia, Japan, United States, Down, Australia, Monday's

The BOJ will now look to utilize its short-term interest rate as its primary policy tool. It will employ an interest rate of 0.1% to current account balances held by financial institutions at the central bank from March 21, while encouraging the uncollateralized overnight call rate (another interest rate used as a policy lever by the bank) to remain at around 0 to 0.1% — effectively raising interest rates from -0.1% previously. It would resort to "nimble responses" in the form of increased Japan government bond purchases and fixed-rate purchases of JGBs, among other things, if there is a rapid rise in long-term interest rates. Japanese investors have looked elsewhere for better returns given years of artificially depressed interest rates in their home market. The Fed is due to announce its own interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Persons: Japan Alexander Spatari, Kazuo Ueda, Rob Carnell, BOJ, Ueda, Michael Brown, —, JGBs, Vishnu Varathan, Hayden Briscoe, Briscoe Organizations: Japan's, Japan Inc, Asia, ING, CNBC, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group, Bank of America, Barclays, U.S . Federal, UBS Asset Management Locations: Dotonbori, Japan, Japan's, U.S, Mizuho's, Asia

☆ Dollar steady, yen soft as BOJ policy shift beckons
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In this photo illustration, a person is seen holding 100, 50, and 5 U.S. dollar bills in his hand. Tom Kenny, senior international economist at ANZ, said an end to negative interest rate policy is likely to reflect a 10-basis-point hike taking the current policy rate from -0.1% to 0.0%. "We expect this to be a dovish hike with the BOJ unlikely to signal its intention to hike again soon." The focus has shifted to whether the policymakers will make any changes to their projections of rate cuts, or dot plots for this year. The Fed in December projected 75 basis points, or three rate cuts, of easing in 2024.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Tom Kenny, Powell, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, ANZ, Beyond, Reuters, New Zealand, Bank of England, Fed, NatWest Locations: Japan, United States, England, Australia, Norway, Switzerland, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia, Asia, Beyond Japan, Australia's, U.S, cryptocurrencies

☆ Gold slips as dollar firms, cenbank meetings in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices slipped on Monday as the dollar held firm and investors braced for a slew of policy decisions from major global central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve this week. The Fed is considered certain to keep rates at 5.25%-5.5% at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The dollar held steady near a two-week high against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is expected to exit its ultra-dovish monetary policy at its two-day meeting ending on Tuesday. The Bank of England will hold its meeting on Thursday and is expected to stay put on rates.

Persons: Kyle Rodda Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Bank of England Locations: Bank of Japan

☆ Top CFOs are as bullish on the Dow and as dovish on the Fed as they've been in a long time: CNBC survey
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

That's according to the CNBC CFO Council Survey for the first quarter, which shows a dramatic year-over-year change in the view from CFOs about the Federal Reserve's inflation battle. The percentage of CFOs who think the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing has reached a five-quarter high, at 48%. According to the Q1 survey, the largest percentage of CFO respondents (44%) do not expect a rate cut until September. In the Q1 CFO survey, equal groups of just under 25% of CFO respondents think the cuts will begin in June or July. Despite CFOs expecting a slower moving Fed than traders, the latest quarterly view represents an increase in dovish expectations.

Persons: CFOs Organizations: CNBC, Survey, CPI Locations: U.S, CFOs

☆ Gold's recent run is one for the history books and has gotten out of hand, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices are anticipating the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year but the historic move has gotten out of hand, according to Barclays. The precious metal has rallied about 7% over the past month, a move that has been surpassed only 6% of the time over the past decade, analysts led by Stefano Pascale told clients in a note released Tuesday. Gold rose for nine consecutive trading sessions — a near record run — according to the analysts. Large funds that had bet against gold started short covering in the wake of the Fed pivot, while demand for gold from central banks remained high, providing tailwinds for the precious metal. With gold getting ahead of itself, in Barclays' view, the British bank recommends that investors replace long delta positions with options to gain upside exposure, lock-in gains and limit downside risk.

Persons: Stefano Pascale, Pascale Organizations: Federal, Barclays

☆ Trump Reelection a Threat to Economy, Could Stoke Inflation, Debt: Roubini
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Trump reelection in November poses the biggest looming risk to the world economy, Nouriel Roubini warned. A second Trump presidency could end up making inflation and the national debt problem even worse, Roubini said. AdvertisementTrump being reelected might be the biggest looming threat to the global economy, according to "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini. Advertisement"With private and public debts high and rising, that would introduce the specter of a financial crisis," Roubini warned. In 2022, he warned markets of a coming stagflationary-debt crisis, which could spark a painful recession and 30% plunge in stocks.

Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Trump, Roubini, —, Doom, Trump's, Powell Organizations: Trump, Service, Project Syndicate, Commerce, Bank of America, Bloomberg Locations: Ukraine, Gaza, China

☆ Inflation will be around for a while, says TD Cowen's Jeffrey Solomon
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will be around for a while, says TD Cowen's Jeffrey SolomonTD Cowen President Jeff Solomon joins 'Money Movers' to discuss whether markets are still dovish toward the Federal Reserve, why he isn't expecting rate cuts anytime soon, and more.

Persons: Cowen's Jeffrey Solomon TD Cowen, Jeff Solomon Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Natixis economist discusses South Korea trade data, says growth is not a challenge this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNatixis economist discusses South Korea trade data, says growth is not a challenge this yearTrinh Nguyen, senior economist at Natixis, discusses South Korea's trade data and the outlook for its monetary policy, saying the Bank of Korea is "very, very, very sensitive to what's happening in financial markets" and it's too early for it to adopt a dovish tone.

Persons: Trinh Nguyen Organizations: South, Bank of Locations: South Korea, Bank of Korea

☆ How a century-old investment firm with $288 billion in assets identifies the companies set to dominate much of the stock market's outperformance, according to one of its fund managers
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It's also a short-sighted approach as far as Baillie Gifford, an investment management firm with $288 billion under management, is concerned. Advertisement"Our investment approach is bottom up," said Gemma Barkhuizen, an investment manager at the firm and one of the decision-makers on the Baillie Gifford Long Term Global Growth Fund. Another example is Nvidia, which is the largest holding within the long-term fund at 1.22%. A bottom-up, stock-picking strategyThe research framework that is the bedrock of the filtering process for the long-term fund looks at 10 key variables. What societal considerations are most likely to prove material to the long-term growth of the company?

Persons: —, It's, Baillie Gifford, Baillie Gifford's, Gemma Barkhuizen, Barkhuizen, Baillie, Roblox, that's, it's, aren't, isn't Organizations: Service, Business, PDD Holdings, Nvidia, Companies Locations: China

☆ Goldman raises S&P 500 target to 5,200, cites strong earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs raised its S & P 500 year-end target to 5,200 in anticipation of stronger-than-expected earnings — especially in megacaps. "In contrast, the remaining 493 stocks in the S & P 500 grew sales by 3% year/year while margins contracted by 56 bp and earnings fell by 2%." On average, strategists are expecting the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,943 , according to a CNBC survey. About 80% of S & P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 76% of those names beating earnings expectations, FactSet data shows. The S & P 500 has performed well to start the year despite broader economic concerns.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: megacaps, U.S

☆ The Fed is set to cut rates this year. Here are the Asian currencies that stand to benefit
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Brent Lewin | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates later this year and, while that may not be good news for the dollar , some Asian currencies stand to benefit. Higher interest rates boost a country's currency, attracting foreign investment and increasing demand for the country's currency. A weak U.S. dollar is generally positive for emerging markets, which is often the case when the Fed cuts interest rates outside of an economic crisis. Experts told CNBC currencies such as the Chinese yuan , the Korean won and the Indian rupee stand to benefit from the Fed loosening monetary policy. So those are also positive for the Indian currency," said Anindya Banerjee, vice president of currency and derivatives research at Kotak Securities.

Persons: Mahatma Gandhi, Brent Lewin, Yuan, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Simon Harvey , , Anindya Banerjee, Banerjee, South Korea's, Monex's Harvey Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal, CNBC, Korean, Bel Air Investment Advisors, People's Bank of, FX, U.S, Kotak Securities, Bank of, Korea's, South Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, China, People's Bank of China, U.S, Bank of India, India, Europe, America

☆ Treating China as ‘un-investable’ would be ‘wide of the mark,’ JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"I don't think you can treat the world's second-largest economy as either an alternative investment or un-investable, that would be wide of the mark," Bilton said. Uncertainty around monetary policy and a shrinking labor force are further causes for concern, Bilton noted. Some analysts saw this as potential dovish policy shift from the PBOC, which has appeared reluctant to take measures that could boost the struggling economy. Financial bodies including the International Monetary Fund have called for further monetary policy reforms since then. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC this week that China had been advised to make use of more of its available fiscal and monetary policy space.

Persons: Raul Ariano, John Bilton, CNBC's, Bilton, Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, JPMorgan Asset Management, People's Bank of, International Monetary Fund, IMF, CNBC Locations: Yuyuan, Shanghai, China, People's Bank of China

☆ The stock market decline on hotter inflation presents a buying opportunity. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Jim Cramer has been saying for a while now that the economy remains too strong for a rate cut anytime soon. However, we're not ready to get bearish on the stock market on this release alone. Therefore, we think the decline in the stock market is buyable. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Dow, Jim Cramer, we're, Jim, it's, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Treasury, Nasdaq, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: stickiness, New York City

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