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☆ October jobs report: Employers keep hiring, but unemployment rises
  + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The report shows employers added 261,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5% in September. The unemployment rate is calculated using a separate survey of households rather than the employer survey used to count workers on the job. The higher-than-expected unemployment rate is also still low by historical standards — September’s 3.5% reading matched a half-century low. “Obviously, 261,000 jobs is great,” he told CNN in an interview Friday morning after the jobs report. But he acknowledged that even with the strong labor market, it’s high prices, not jobs, on the minds of most Americans.
☆ U.S. service sector slows in October; price pressures build up - ISM survey
  + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The ISM's measure of new orders received by services businesses fell to 56.5 from 60.6 in September. The ISM survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries increased to 56.2 last month from 53.9 in September. Its services industry employment gauge dropped to 49.1 from 53.0 in September. Services businesses in the ISM survey in September reported hiring remained a challenge and qualified workers were scarce.
☆ U.S. labor market unwavering despite stiff interest rates hikes
  + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
But annual revisions to the data showed productivity much stronger in 2020 and 2021 than previously reported. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - increased at a 3.5% rate after accelerating at a pace of 8.9% in the second quarter. Unit labor costs advanced at a 6.1% rate from a year ago. Growth in unit labor costs was much slower than previously estimated in 2020 and 2021. Labor costs"Both productivity growth and labor cost growth may be understated," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.
☆ U.S. job openings jump in September; raw material prices fall in October
  + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
With roughly 1.9 job openings for every unemployed worker at the end of September, wage growth could remain elevated. "It is a head scratcher where you have to wonder whether 10 million job openings can stop a recession from coming." Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased 437,000 to 10.7 million on the last day of September, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Data for August was revised higher to show 10.3 million job openings instead of 10.1 million as previously reported. The job openings rate increased to 6.5% from 6.3% in August.
☆ U.S. manufacturing activity slowest in nearly 2-1/2 years in October -ISM
  + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 last month from 50.9 in September, both the lowest readings since May 2020. A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. A measure of prices paid by manufacturers dropped to 46.6, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 51.7 in September. The ISM survey's measure of factory employment also ticked up to 50.0 last month after dropping to 48.7 in September. The index has been a poor predictor of manufacturing payrolls in the government's closely watched employment report, next out this Friday.
☆ Inflation worries hurt U.S. consumer confidence; house prices decelerating
  + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 102.5 this month from 107.8 in September. Consumers were also more inclined to buy a house, probably encouraged by a sharp slowdown in house price inflation. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.9% in August, the second straight monthly drop. Prices fell 0.7% on a monthly basis after decreasing 0.6% in July. It was the first time since March 2011 that monthly prices posted back-to-back declines.
☆ Euro zone October PMI adds to evidence bloc is heading for recession
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"The flash PMIs for October provide yet more evidence that the euro zone is sliding into quite a deep recession but that inflationary pressures remain intense," said Andrew Kenningham at Capital Economics. Concerns over rising inflation also weighed on the euro zone's second-biggest economy, France, and business activity there slowed. British government bond prices rose early on Monday after prices fell on Friday as investors braced for more uncertainty. The manufacturing PMI fell to 46.6 from 48.4, its lowest since May 2020 and below all forecasts in the Reuters poll. The future output index fell to 44.8 from 45.3, its lowest since May 2020 - when the COVID-19 pandemic was tightening its grip on the world.
☆ U.S. factory output solid in September; builder sentiment slumps further
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The two data points out Tuesday illustrate the uneven impact the U.S. central bank's rate hikes are having so far on the economy. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% last month, keeping pace with an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Overall industrial production rose 0.4%, after slipping 0.1% the prior month. The rate hikes have torpedoed activity in the housing sector, and Wednesday's data from the National Association of Home Builders reinforced that. "And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues."
☆ U.S. home builder sentiment falls for 10th straight month - NAHB
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Oct 18 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders fell for the 10th straight month in October as soaring mortgage rates and bottlenecks for building materials made new housing less affordable for many first-time buyers. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped eight points to 38 this month. "This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts," NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement. "And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
☆ NY Fed survey finds big drop in expected spending plans
  + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The bank said its September Survey of Consumer Expectations survey found that respondents projected their spending will rise by 6% over the next year, a sharp drop from the 7.8% rise predicted in the August survey. The bank noted that decline in spending expectations was the biggest since the survey began in 2013. On the inflation front, households said they were expecting a moderation in near-term price pressure but an increase in price pressures over the longer-run horizon. The survey found that the public sees inflation at 5.4% a year from now, down from 5.7% in August. Fed officials have had some confidence they will be able to get inflation back to their 2% target due to what they see as the relative stability of longer-run inflation expectations.
☆ Inflation expectations ease, while spending outlook tumbles, Fed consumer survey shows
  + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
That's the lowest level since January and the biggest one-month decline ever in a data series going back to June 2013. Respondents did put a slightly higher number on their outlook for three-year inflation, moving that forecast to 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from August. Median five-year expectations moved up to 2.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point but much closer to the Fed's goal. Consumers see gas prices increasing by half a percentage point, and food to surge by 6.9%, a full percentage point increase from August's survey. Unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus also coincided with the inflation surge.
☆ China's Golden Week spending plunges to seven-year low as zero-Covid batters economy
  + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
The National Day break is one of China’s longest public holidays and usually a peak season for travel and spending. But this year, people were deterred from traveling by a resurgence of the virus and stringent Covid restrictions. All the weak data point to the heavy damage of Beijing’s zero-Covid policy on consumer spending and the economy, said analysts. China’s service sector is a key source of employment, accounting for 48% of total jobs created, according to government data. “Entrepreneurs’ concerns continued to stem from recurring Covid outbreaks and the impact of related controls on the market,” Wang said.
☆ Charts suggest it's time to 'hold your nose and buy something,' Jim Cramer says
  + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
watch nowCNBC's Jim Cramer on Wednesday said investors should consider buying some stocks while investor sentiment is extremely negative, leaning on charts analysis from technician Ralph Vince. "The charts, as interpreted by Ralph Vince, suggest that investor sentiment has reached extremely negative levels, to the point where you've got to hold your nose and buy something," he said. Last week, it was at 17.7%, which is one of the lowest readings in history, according to Cramer. In other words, the chart suggests that now is a terrific buying opportunity, Cramer said. "You've got to hold your nose and buy something, even if it makes you want to puke.
☆ The Fed is dragging the US into a recession to cool surging prices. Most Americans expect inflation to die down on its own.
  + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Inflation expectations have been falling since the spring, signaling there's little chance of a 1980s-like price surge. Inflation expectations may seem like simple forecasts, but their effects on the economy can be dramatic. Anchored inflation expectations can put downward pressure on price growth as consumers reject large price hikes and businesses are pushed to compete with each other. Powell on Wednesday pointed to well-anchored inflation expectations as a boon, but noted the trend "is not grounds for complacency." "The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched," the chair said.
☆ UK downturn deepens, raising recession risk -flash PMI
  + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Released just as finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng was due to flesh out the economic agenda of new Prime Minister Liz Truss, the S&P Global/CIPS flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.4 from 49.6 in August. It marked the lowest reading since the COVID-19 lockdown of January last year. The PMI for the services sector fell to 49.2 in September from 50.9 in August, the weakest reading since January 2021. While the manufacturing PMI rose to 48.5 from 47.3, much of the improvement reflected a worsening supply chain performance, which in normal times reflects shortages due to strong demand but not this time. Despite the pound falling to 37-year lows against the dollar, export orders contracted in both the manufacturing and service sectors, S&P Global said.
☆ Euro zone likely entering recession as price rises hit demand -PMI
  + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"The third decline in a row for the euro zone PMI indicates business activity has been contracting throughout the quarter. A reuters poll earlier this month gave a 60% chance of a recession in the euro zone within a year. read morePRICE PRESSURESOverall demand in the euro zone fell to its lowest since November 2020, when the continent was suffering a second wave of COVID-19 infections. The new business PMI fell to 46.0 from 46.9. The euro zone services PMI fell to 48.9 from 49.8, its second month sub-50 and the lowest reading since February 2021.
☆ U.S. home builder sentiment falls for ninth straight month in September
  + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Octavio JonesWASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders fell for the ninth straight month in September as soaring mortgage rates and persistently high prices for building materials made new housing less affordable for many first-time buyers. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped three points to 46 this month. Mortgage rates have surged even higher. According to a Reuters survey, housing starts likely slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.445 million units last month from a pace of 1.446 million units in July. Permits for future home construction are, however, expected to have declined to a rate of 1.610 million units from a pace of 1.685 million units in July.
☆ Mortgage rates just hit a high not seen since the 2008 housing crash
  + stars: | 2022-09-11 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
More interest rate hikes are on the horizon and that means mortgage rates could climb further. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist, says the uptick is attributed to economic volatility that is seeping into the US real estate market. "The combination of higher mortgage rates and the slowdown in economic growth is weighing on the housing market," Khater told Insider. Numerous interest rate hikes have lifted mortgage rates at the fastest pace in decades. The move has effectively put an end to the home buying frenzy that rocked the US real estate market.
☆ It's a terrible time to both buy and sell real estate
  + stars: | 2022-09-08 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Americans are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the US real estate market. Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyThe real estate market is in limbo. It's created greater dysfunction in the real estate market. Indeed, activity in the real estate market is cooling. As rising mortgage rates burden consumers, it's given rise to the largest decline in home listings in more than two years.
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