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☆ MSCI’s Adani cut signals fat tail risks for India
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Hindenburg founder Nathan Anderson sees MSCI's move as a validation of his group’s findings of “stock parking” by Adani. The Securities and Exchange Board of India, headed by former banker Madhabi Puri Buch, acknowledged unusual price movements this month, but without naming the Adani group. But the longer the controversy drags on, there will be a fat tail risk for Adani and all his stakeholders. CONTEXT NEWSGlobal index provider MSCI on Feb. 9 cut its determined free floats for four Adani companies. It reduced those of Adani Enterprises, Adani Total Gas, Adani Transmission and ACC, and said any resulting changes will be implemented at the close of Feb. 28.

☆ Gautam Adani’s woes were in banks' plain sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

MUMBAI, Feb 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Gautam Adani’s recent woes have vindicated persistent doubts in India about the tycoon’s rise. The Indian group dismisses those claims as a “malicious combination of selective misinformation and stale, baseless and discredited allegations”. By contrast, other big Indian groups like Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries (DBKGn.DE) and those carrying the Tata name are more popular with institutional investors. Fee-hungry international banks were much less picky. Deutsche, Barclays and StanChart pocketed $57 million of the $260 million of investment banking revenue generated by the Adani group since Dealogic records began.

☆ U.S.-China rewarming trade is half-full of hot air
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Enter a literal ball of hot air in the form of a Chinese spy balloon that the United States military is tracking in its home skies. The balloon’s brazen appearance augurs ill for Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s expected visit to Beijing next week. However, it is important to put the balloon in the context of Beijing’s habitual good cop, bad cop negotiating routine. In financial terms, Beijing still largely has its good-cop hat on. U.S. investors may fret about Chinese eyes in the sky, but in financial terms they have more to fear from the flaming gas jets in their own legislature.

☆ Breakingviews: Adani’s share sale U-turn spares only some blushes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, Feb 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Markets have given Gautam Adani a big bloody nose, and his backers a partial reprieve. The tycoon’s decision on Wednesday to pull the $2.4 billion share sale at his flagship Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) was all but forced after a 28% plunge in the company’s share price the day after it closed the books. That danger was magnified on Wednesday with India’s regulator looking into possible irregularities around the share sale, Reuters reported exclusively citing a source with direct knowledge of the matter. Less than one quarter was due to pay down borrowings at the issuer and its unlisted subsidiaries, including Adani Airport and Adani Road. loadingCONTEXT NEWSAdani Enterprises on Feb. 1 said it is withdrawing its $2.4 billion share sale due to the “unprecedented situation and the current market volatility”.

☆ Gautam Adani’s next hurdles may be harder to clear
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, Feb 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - It helps to have friendly investors and rich families on hand when finalising a tricky share sale. The feat will be hard to repeat though, while the Indian tycoon’s next hurdles might be harder to clear. Investor interest in Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) was underwhelming. Shares in $32 billion Adani Total Gas (ADAG.NS) have nearly halved since Hindenburg published its critical report. loadingCONTEXT NEWSThe $2.4 billion share sale by Adani Enterprises was fully subscribed on Jan. 31, data released by the Indian stock exchange showed.

Morgan Stanley economists forecast its stock market will be the world’s third largest before the end of 2030. For those who passively track stock market indexes, the controversy engulfing Adani, briefly the world’s third richest man, may act as a deterrent from an already expensive market. The newish chair of India’s securities regulator, Madhabi Puri Buch, has already wielded a stick at credit rating agencies to instil better market discipline. In the meantime, the turmoil is a reminder to investors of the danger of investing blindly in emerging markets. Stocks look increasingly expensive compared to emerging marketsReuters GraphicsFollow @ugalani and @ShritamaBose on TwitterloadingloadingCONTEXT NEWSShares of the Adani group companies have lost $65 billion since Jan. 25 after U.S. short-seller Hindenburg Research published a research note on the group.

HONG KONG/MUMBAI, Jan 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Gautam Adani’s financing options are narrowing fast. That leaves it dependent on a safety net provided by Indian banks. Those concerns exploded after Hindenburg Research last week declared the Indian group was making extensive use of tax havens and “pulling the largest con in corporate history” – allegations Adani dismissed as “misinformation” and “stale, baseless and discredited”. Lending more to the group would protect the capital that banks already have at risk in projects under construction. Shares of Gautam Adani’s listed companies have lost a combined $48 billion in market capitalisation since Jan. 25.

☆ Adani’s buy now, pay later fundraise could sting
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, Jan 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Gautam Adani is on a mission to win public acceptance for his eponymous group. The first stage of a $2.4 billion stock sale by his flagship Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) entity has won over anchor investors, including the well-regarded Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. They are picking up roughly $734 million of stock in India’s largest follow-on issue of new shares by a private sector company. But those of other Adani group companies including Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS) and some U.S. dollar bonds at Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS) and Adani Ports (APSE.NS) sold off sharply. For Adani investors, buy now, pay later could take on an awkward new meaning.

☆ Breakingviews: Short-seller attack raises Gautam Adani stakes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, Jan 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hindenburg Research is going after big game, with devastating timing. Now he is taking aim at the world’s third richest man, Gautam Adani, and his $230 billion infrastructure-focused empire. It follows a tussle last year with Fitch Group after its research outfit, CreditSights, called Adani “deeply overleveraged”. Most of the companies in the Adani group – nine of which are listed – are too closely held, massively overvalued, and largely ignored by Wall Street institutions and big Indian mutual funds. Adani Enterprises stock, for example, fell only 1.5% on Wednesday, though Adani Transmission fell 9%.

☆ Short-seller attack raises Gautam Adani stakes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Now he is taking aim at the world’s third richest man, Gautam Adani, and his $230 billion infrastructure-focused empire. It follows a tussle last year with Fitch Group after its research outfit, CreditSights, called Adani “deeply overleveraged”. Most of the companies in the Adani group – nine of which are listed – are too closely held, massively overvalued, and largely ignored by Wall Street institutions and big Indian mutual funds. Adani Enterprises stock, for example, fell only 1.5% on Wednesday, though Adani Transmission fell 9%. Adani Enterprises, controlled by India’s richest man, Gautam Adani, is due on Jan. 25 to announce the anchor investors in a 200 billion rupee ($2.4 billion) follow-on issue, the largest in India by a private company.

☆ Toshiba buyout heralds a big step back for Japan
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

MUMBAI, Jan 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The end of a long battle to wring some value from Toshiba (6502.T) is finally within reach. Such an outcome won’t encourage private equity firms, and big policy shifts underway may stifle the industry just as it hits a new high. Instead, after an accounting scandal in 2015, Toshiba came to epitomise Japan Inc’s pervasive value destruction. Japan typically outperforms private equity deals in other developed markets, partly because existing incentive structures for company bosses are so poor. The country’s private equity industry is only just finding its feet.

HONG KONG, Jan 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Macau is bounding into the Year of the Rabbit. Meanwhile arrivals from China and Hong Kong reached roughly 40% of 2019 traffic as of Jan. 13, per Morgan Stanley. That is remarkable given the mainland and Macau only relaxed restrictions less than two weeks ago. Melco Resorts & Entertainment , MGM China (2282.HK), Sands China (1928.HK) and Wynn Macau (1128.HK) have seen their leverage ratios swell. Ultimately to rebalance borrowings, Macau needs returning visitors to spend as much – or more – as they did in the past.

☆ Alibaba’s pushy shareholder mistimes his moment
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Jan 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Ryan Cohen has been pressing Alibaba (9988.HK), for improvements since last August, per the Wall Street Journal. As the owner of an undisclosed stake, he wants the company to boast its share buybacks. It confirms Alibaba’s emerging status as a mature company: revenue growth is forecast to almost halve to 10% by 2025, per Refinitiv. Increasing share purchases as the storm settles, and as an obstacle in the company’s growth path clears, would be odd. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Follow @KatrinaHamlin on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSHong Kong-listed Apollo Future Mobility said on Jan. 12 that it had agreed to buy Chinese electric-car maker WM Motor Global for HK$15.9 billion ($2.02 billion). To fund the acquisition of its larger peer, Apollo will issue 28.8 billion new shares at HK$0.55 each. Apollo shares fell 8.6% and were trading at HK$0.23 by market close on Jan. 12. WM Motor Global filed for a Hong Kong initial public offering in May 2022, but the application lapsed in November. WM Motor Global’s owner, WM Motor Holdings, is the largest shareholder in Apollo Future Mobility, and WM Motor founder Freeman Shen sits on the latter’s board as co-chair.

☆ Olam’s Saudi-Singapore IPO sign of shifting times
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Jan 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Signs of deepening ties between Asia and the oil-rich Gulf are coming thick and fast. A planned Saudi Arabia-Singapore dual listing this year for Olam Agri, a trader of grains and seeds, is the latest example. Corporate and financial moves underscore how the global pin-code, as Olam’s co-founder and Chief Executive Sunny Verghese puts it, is changing. Between population trends, the Russia-Ukraine war and polarising geopolitics, expect the Gulf and Asia to get cosier. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Taiwanese satellites signal Asia’s distrust of Musk
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The idea is to emulate the support Elon Musk’s SpaceX unit Starlink is providing Ukraine to help in its battle with Russia. Ordinarily reliant on U.S. technology for defence, Taipei has reasonable concerns about the Tesla boss’ relationship with Beijing, given the mainland market’s importance to the company. In addition to facilitating the sort of internet-enabled resistance Ukraine has given Russia, there are commercial applications, so it could be smart business. Japan, South Korea and Vietnam have similar concerns about China and about Musk, so there may be scope for a broader Asian system. That could leave Starlink, which Beijing won’t allow to be sold inside China, without much of a market in East Asia.

☆ India’s Vodafone stress test may have ugly results
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors cheered, and many customers in its now-234 million-and shrinking subscriber base breathed a sigh of relief. Vodafone, meanwhile, is now calling on the banks for fresh loans, per the Economic Times. That may not have been sufficient, but there was no disclosure by the company stating that the swap was conditional on the existing owners’ financial commitment. India’s politicians are careful to avoid situations where they might be accused of being too generous to foreign multinationals. With so much stress, though, other creditors might find a reason to pull the rug from under the company’s feet sooner.

Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, is gearing up to supply cars, and the chips and batteries that go into them, to global marques. It sees automakers entrusting the company with production in Indonesia, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, the United States and beyond. Getting there requires Foxconn ditching a tried and tested business model. To make smartphones, the company relies on a few factories it owns in China and it has little say over the underlying supply chains and which components to use. Foxconn has also tied up with Ohio-based Lordstown Motors (RIDE.O) in the United States; its factory is already making electric pickup trucks and could start supplying to other American brands within a year.

HONG KONG, Dec 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Vietnam is an unlikely home of the next Elon Musk. The 48-year-old is at the wheel of VinFast, a money-losing electric-vehicle maker racing the U.S. entrepreneur’s Tesla (TSLA.O) on Western roads. VinFast has made its name selling gas guzzlers in the Southeast Asian nation, where its parent Vingroup (VIC.HM) is the top conglomerate. CONTEXT NEWSVietnamese electric-car maker VinFast is planning a U.S. initial public offering, an initial prospectus published on Dec. 6 shows. Revenue fell to 10.5 trillion dong, down from 11.2 trillion dong.

☆ Apple finds a happy home in India
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Pranav Kiran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Helped by generous subsidies, Taiwanese Apple suppliers are starting to churn out more iPhones in India. Analysts at JPMorgan reckon India will have 6% of iPhone manufacturing capacity in 2022, and the rest will remain in China. Incentives and other subsidies partially compensate for inefficiencies in India, where demand for pricier devices is slowly picking up. HDFC Securities estimates that for an average smartphone, as little as 14% of the value is added in India. Whether or not India gets that far, Apple at least gets a happy new home.

HONG KONG, Dec 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong’s bankers and officials fantasise about the moment China finally ditches its Covid-19 restrictions. Mainland Chinese firms account for eight of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s (0388.HK) ten largest ever IPOs. It remains faster for Chinese companies to list in Hong Kong, rather than join the long queue on the mainland. Hong Kong could also host more offerings from places like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, as Cha envisions. IPOs on the Hong Kong exchange have raised $7.1 billion so far in 2022, according to Refinitiv data for the year up to Dec. 7.

HONG KONG, Dec 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The pandemic has helped Chinese authorities to keep a lot of money at home. With expectations rising for a full reopening of the country, including its international borders, capital outflows could be Beijing’s next headache. The People’s Republic supposedly has strict controls with cross-border cash transfers for citizens capped at $50,000 per year. Even so, jet-setting travellers splurged $255 billion abroad in 2019, boosting hotel revenue in Thailand and designer handbag sales in Paris. With pent up demand for spending overseas likely to be high, China might be tempted to look for benefits from keeping its borders shut.

The Chinese pharmaceutical giant may revive a buyout of its 32%-owned traditional medicine arm listed in Hong Kong. The state-backed group's latest bid for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (0570.HK) looks generous. China TCM's woes are a stark contrast to mainland-listed rivals, including some with heavy exposure to drugs presented as fixes to Covid-19. Assuming some of that enthusiasm can rub off on China TCM, that makes Sinopharm's latest offer look like a steal. Follow @mak_robyn on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSSinopharm is considering reviving a bid for China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 7, citing people familiar with the matter.

☆ Link’s M&A chain breaks into pieces Down Under
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, Dec 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - It’s hard to feel bad for well-compensated bankers but Link Administration’s (LNK.AX) M&A advisers at Macquarie (MQG.AX) and UBS (UBSG.S) need some Christmas cheer. On Thursday their client pulled the plug on negotiations for a partial takeover by Canada’s Dye & Durham (DND.TO), effectively accusing its suitor of dithering. Macquarie and UBS did manage Link’s sale of a slug of its 43% stake in mortgage-settlement company PEXA (PXA.AX) and may help distribute the remainder to shareholders. If Link offloads its troubled London unit, the slimmed-down company, worth perhaps A$800 million, could yet attract new interest. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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