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☆ Russia is trying to cover up the decline of a once elite unit that was rendered 'combat ineffective,' UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is trying to fix the reputation of a once elite brigade hammered in Ukraine, the UK MOD said. The military is worried the brigade's reputation reflects how military leaders are seen, it said. In an update published Monday, the UK Ministry of Defence said the once celebrated 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet had been rendered "combat ineffective" multiple times when fighting in Ukraine. Experts told Insider that the brigade once had an elite reputation, but that this had been eroded by repeated defeats. Russia's military overall has experienced the same issues.

☆ Russian troops are dying in Ukraine due to heavy alcohol consumption, poor weapons handling, and hypothermia, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Alia Shoaib | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russian troops are dying in Ukraine due to incidents linked to alcohol consumption, the UK MoD says. A Russian Telegram news channel reported in March that alcohol consumption is a particular issue amongst the deployed Russian troops and that "extremely high" incidents, crimes, and deaths have been linked to it. Russian commanders are likely finding alcohol abuse to be especially detrimental to combat effectiveness, the ministry said. Aside from that, it said other common causes of non-combat casualties likely include poor weapon handling drills, road traffic accidents, and hypothermia. Russia is currently in the midst of a winter offensive, which aims to extend Russian control over the whole Donbas region in Ukraine.

☆ Russia's plan to get 400,000 more volunteer fighters won't work, so they will have to coerce people, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The UK MOD said Russia wants it to appear like people volunteered, to minimize domestic anger. But it will likely struggle to get enough people, and authorities may have to coerce them, it said. But the UK MOD said it is very unlikely that many Russians will choose to sign up, so authorities will end up coercing them instead. "Russia is presenting the campaign as a drive for volunteer, professional personnel, rather than a new, mandatory mobilisation," it said. The UK MOD said that adding new troops would not fix Russia's struggles in Ukraine.

☆ Some Russians can't agree if they should honor convict soldiers who died in Ukraine after trading prison for war: 'They killed, stole, stabbed, raped... What kind of heroes are they?'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Kelsey Vlamis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Wagner Group recruited thousands of Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine in exchange for freedom. While those who died return home to be buried, residents can't agree on how they should be treated. The Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, caused controversy by recruiting convicted criminals to fight in Ukraine in exchange for their freedom. The UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence briefing earlier this month that about half of all the Russian prisoners sent to fight Ukraine have been killed or wounded. Some residents are also concerned about pardoned prisoners who return home alive but may still be violent.

☆ Russia's newest army corps lost many of its tanks in an offensive because it simply copied tactics that failed in the past, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's new army corps is losing tanks at a fast rate as it tries to encirle Avdiivka, the UK said. And that's because it's repeating tactics that have failed Russia's military in the past, according to UK intelligence. Avdiivka is a town in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, which the UK MOD said Russia has recently made a priority. Videos show Russian tanks and armored vehicles being blown up by mines and anti-tank missiles in and around Vuhledar. The UK MOD said that the 3rd Army Corps has been "particularly dogged by problems with ill-discipline and poor morale," referencing open-source accounts.

☆ Russia is sending troops to 'less experienced' Belarus for training because most of its own instructors have been deployed to Ukraine, says UK intel
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Belarus is training Russian troops despite its army being "much less-experienced," the UK MOD said. Russia resorted to this after its own training system was upended by the war in Ukraine, it said. The UK MOD said that Russia likely deployed at least 1,000 troops in March 2023 that were trained at the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground in Belarus. The training of Russian troops has been heavily scrutinized since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The UK MOD also said that Russia had political reasons for training troops in Belarus.

☆ Russia's assault on Bakhmut is losing the limited momentum it had, says UK intel, complicating its best chance at a symbolic victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's efforts to take the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut seem to be losing momentum, the UK MOD said. Bakhmut has huge symbolic importance to Russia, and failing to take it would be a big blow. The city is one of the few places Russia has made recent progress, as its latest offensive fails to grow. The UK MOD said that momentum may be slipping "partially because some Russian MoD units have been reallocated to other sectors." The UK MOD said in December that capturing Bakhmut would have "limited operational value" for Russia.

☆ Russia faces an 'exodus' of troops as prisoners recruited to fight in Ukraine start to be pardoned and return home, says UK intel
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's Wagner mercenary army fighting in Ukraine is about to see an "exodus" of personnel. It's due to release thousands of troops recruited from prisons in exchange for pardons, UK intel said. It will likely face personnel issues as a result, since it's no longer allowed to recruit prisoners. The Wagner Group is a private, pro-Kremlin group that has sent tens of thousands of mercenaries and former prisoners to Ukraine. Evidence from Russia suggests that the Wagner Group is "following through on its promise to free survivors," the MOD said.

☆ Ukraine is betting big on a bloody battle for a ruined town, but the gamble could break its ability to drive Russia back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The bloody battle of Bakhmut continues to wage as Russia and Ukraine both face mounting losses. Ukrainian losses in Bakhmut could hinder a more strategically critical counteroffensive in the future. Yet, despite the resources committed to the battle from both sides, Bakhmut remains a minimally-important city, strategically speaking. "The best estimates we have are that the Russian military and Wagner Group are a spent force," D'Anieri said. A tank carrying Ukrainian soldiers who have returned from the frontline passes along a street in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine.

☆ Russia's new offensive in Ukraine has likely fizzled out after only a month, Western intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( John Haltiwanger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

UK intelligence suggests Russia's new offensive is on its last legs, just a month after it began. Russian forces have depleted their "combat power," the assessment said. "Even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable," it added. The British Defense Ministry said this is likely because Russian forces have depleted their "combat power" to such a degree that "even local offensive actions are not currently sustainable." There's been an evolving debate between Kyiv and its Western partners over Ukraine's insistence on continuing to defend Bakhmut, which analysts have suggested could fall to Russian forces in the coming days.

☆ Russia is confiscating its officials' passports to stop them fleeing the country or defecting, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Some Russian officials have had their passports taken away, UK intelligence said. Thousands have fled Russia, including some officials who offer secrets to try and get asylum. Some European countries have banned Russian tourists, and many nations closed their airspace to Russian planes. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands, of young Russians fled the country when Russia announced a partial mobilization of reservists in September. Some officials have fled Russia and are offering to hand over secrets in exchange for being granted asylum.

☆ Russia has been forced to issue old ammunition that was previously declared unfit for use, says UK intel, deepening its struggles in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia is issuing old military stock that was previously seen as unfit for use, UK intelligence said. This is likely a key reason why Russia's new offensive hasn't progressed, the MOD said. The UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Tuesday that Russia "has almost certainly already resorted to issuing old munitions stock which were previously categorised as unfit for use." This likely explains why Russia has not made any significant gains since it started its long-awaited offensive earlier this spring, the MOD said. The UK MOD said earlier this month that Russia has been showing off advanced military technology around the world, at the same time that its soldiers in Ukraine are forced to rely on old equipment.

☆ Half of all Russian prisoners recruited to fight in Ukraine have likely been killed or wounded, says UK intelligence
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Around half of the prisoners Russia recruited for Ukraine have been killed or wounded, per UK intel. The private pro-Kremlin Wagner Group has sent many prisoners to one of the war's bloodiest battles. But the group can no longer recruit from prisons, limiting its ability to reinforce, the UK said. The UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Monday that "about half of the prisoners Wagner has already deployed in Ukraine have likely become casualties." In February, it was reported that Wagner had stopped recruiting prisoners as growing numbers refused to be enlisted on suicide missions in Ukraine, according to multiple reports.

☆ Masked Wagner mercenaries are giving career talks at Russian high schools, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Chris Panella | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Wagner Group recruiters are giving career talks at high schools, UK intel says. During these lessons, Wagner representatives also reportedly promoted the Wagneryonok, a youth-focused military group and summer camp located in Crimea. As losses mount, Wagner is increasingly finding itself at odds with Russian military leadership and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Presently, there is a very public feud between Prigozhin and Russia's defense ministry over critical ammunition and supplies. ISW experts said that Russian leadership is also likely using the deadly fighting in Bakhmut to kill off Wagner troops and weaken Prigozhin's power.

☆ Russia can't make new missiles fast enough to keep up its attacks, so massive strikes are becoming rarer, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Chris Panella | Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia can't make new missiles fast enough, leading to less frequent attacks on Ukraine, UK intel says. The intelligence suggests Russia is struggling to "stockpile a critical mass" for larger strikes. US and UK officials have previously said Russia is using munitions faster than it can produce them. UK intelligence said Russia fired "an unusually large number" of Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missiles. A top UK envoy, meanwhile, said in late 2022 that Russia was working to obtain ballistic missiles from Iran to bolster its stockpile.

☆ Russia's elite tank unit was meant to get its most advanced armor. Instead it's fighting with obsolete Soviet tanks from the '60s, UK intel says.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

But instead it's relying on 60-year-old T-62 tanks, per a UK Ministry of Defence update. Russia has retrieved approximately 800 T-62 tanks from storage since the summer of 2022, it said. But, instead, it is receiving T-62 tanks, which were first adopted by the Soviet Union in 1961, and ceased production in the 1970s. The UK Ministry of Defence also noted the absence of modern explosive reactive armor as a potential vulnerability. Since the summer of 2022, approximately 800 T-62 tanks have been retrieved from Russian storage, the MOD intelligence update said.

☆ Russia has changed its plan to take over Ukraine, with the goal now to exhaust the country rather than conquer new territory, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's plan to control Ukraine has changed and now focuses on trying to exhaust it, UK intel said. It added: "The Russian leadership is likely pursuing a long-term operation where they bank that Russia's advantages in population and resources will eventually exhaust Ukraine." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also said in January that Russia was trying to "exhaust" it with drone strikes. The UK defense ministry said this strategy shift occurred over the last few weeks, and contrasts with Russia's earlier approach. The UK defense ministry update suggests that this strategy has now started to impact Russia's battlefield tactics.

☆ The average life expectancy of a front-line soldier in eastern Ukraine is around 4 hours, says an American fighting in 'the meat grinder'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Chris Panella | Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The average life expectancy of a front-line soldier in eastern Ukraine is just 4 hours, says a former US Marine. He said fighting is especially deadly in the war-torn city of Bakhmut, dubbed "the meat grinder." Fighting in Bakhmut is so bad, Offenbecker said, that it's been dubbed "the meat grinder." Bakhmut, which is located in Ukraine's occupied Donetsk region, has been besieged by Russian forces throughout much of the full-scale war. Despite a months-long attempt by Russian forces to encircle the city, Ukrainian troops have provided a stiff defense and have so far prevented the Russians from capturing it.

☆ Russia is likely to claim a big victory in Bakhmut as 1-year anniversary of its invasion approaches, regardless of the reality on the ground, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is under increasing political pressure to capture Bakhmut by February 24, UK intel said. It's "likely" that Russia will claim victory there regardless of the reality on the ground, it said. Analysts say that Russia will struggle to seize Bakhmut by the first anniversary of the Ukraine war. "It is likely that Russia will claim that Bakhmut has been captured to align with the anniversary, regardless of the reality on the ground," the MoD said. The UK intelligence update added that Russia is continuing to pursue several offensive axes in eastern Ukraine, with casualties reportedly remaining high in Bakhmut.

☆ Western intelligence says Russia is amassing aircraft on Ukraine's border, as countries look to the skies to break deadlock
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Mia Jankowicz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is gathering air power at Ukraine's border, according to unnamed Western officials. US defense secretary Lloyd Austin denied this, but called on the West to rush air defenses to Ukraine. NATO allies have noted both fixed-wing and rotary aircraft as part of the build-up, unnamed Western officials told the Financial Times. The reports come as Ukraine's allies embark on a renewed rush to bring air defenses to the country. He said that "we need to do everything that we can" to bring air defenses to Ukraine.

☆ 97% of Russia's army is now in Ukraine, claims UK intel, meaning Putin may struggle to have enough trained troops to throw at the war
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

97% of Russia's army is now in Ukraine, the UK's defense minister said. "That has come at a huge cost to the Russian army. We now estimate 97% of the Russian army, the whole Russian army, is in Ukraine." Wallace also compared Russia's efforts to advance to "almost First World War levels of attrition and with success rates of a matter of metres rather than kilometres." Russian defectors and Western intelligence have repeatedly highlighted that many Russian troops received almost no training before being sent to Ukraine.

☆ Russia is preventing migrant workers from leaving the country as authorities consider more military call-ups, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Joshua Zitser | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia is keeping dual-citizen migrant workers from leaving the country, UK military intel says. It cited a report that said Kyrgyz workers were stopped by border guards as they tried to leave. Russia is "keeping open the option" of another round of military call-ups, per the update. The UK defense ministry said these reports come as Russian authorities are "keeping open the option" of another round of military call-ups. But this latest UK military update said that Russia's leadership is "highly likely" to continue looking for ways to meet the huge numbers of personnel required to launch any future offensive in Ukraine.

☆ Russia dismissed a successful commander as power struggles grip its top ranks, UK intelligence says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia dismissed a top general who had been praised for his performance in Ukraine, the UK MOD said. The MOD said there are "continued divisions" in the Russian military since the shake up. Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform reported on Tuesday that Teplinsky "cursed at" Gerasimov during a meeting and was "immediately dismissed." Other Russian military figures have also been given new roles as part of the reshuffle. The UK ministry suggested earlier this month that Russia had been using almost all deployable VDV troops as ground-holding troops up until November.

☆ Russian mercenaries are forbidden from helping wounded comrades and forced to leave them behind, Ukrainian intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Wounded Wagner Group soldiers are being left on battlefields for hours, Ukrainian intelligence said. The deaths of thousands of Wagner soldiers do not matter to Russian society, it suggested. "The deaths of thousands of Wagner soldiers do not matter to Russian society," the report said, according to CNN. Wagner soldiers are also being killed if they withdraw from an area without permission, the document said. The Wagner Group, which the US says is responsible for "atrocities and human rights abuses' in Ukraine, has close links to the Kremlin.

☆ Russia's new top general in Ukraine is fixated on getting soldiers to shave more often, sparking derision among its military, UK intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's new Ukraine general is fixated on soldiers' shaving habits, the UK defense ministry said. Valery Gerasimov's focus is drawing the ire of other military factions, it added. The UK defense ministry said that Gerasimov's focus on grooming is drawing the ire of officials in Russia-occupied areas, who see it as a pointless distraction. The UK defense ministry said that Gerasimov's focus on aspects like shaving means he's yet to prove his critics wrong where it counts: on the battlefield. Washington-based think-tank the Institute for the Study of War, meanwhile, said this month that the new Russian focus on personal habits may have a purpose, Insider's Jake Epstein reported.

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