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Unsecured loans – mostly personal loans and credit cards – do not carry any collateral and therefore pose higher risk. Indian banks have been growing their unsecured lending portfolio as the pandemic-induced stress began to ease. "Risks in unsecured lending has been on the RBI's radar," said a senior official at a private bank. This has pushed up the weighted average lending rate of banks by 95 bps in the same period. "It is trying to identify early warning signals in unsecured lending to not be caught off guard later."

☆ India's forex reserves jump to 9-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MUMBAI, April 14 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) jumped to $584.76 billion for the week ended April 7, the highest in nine months, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed on Friday. The central bank intervenes in the spot and forwards markets to prevent runaway moves in the rupee . Changes in forex reserves also stem from valuation gains or losses. For the reported week, the rupee ended 0.3% higher against the U.S. dollar. The rupee closed at 81.85 on Thursday and clocked its fourth consecutive weekly rise for the holiday-shortened week ending April 14.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee to inch up ahead of key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.06-82.10 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.12 in the previous session. Heading into the data, investors are pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 bps points at the May meeting. The India inflation data is due a few hours before the U.S. number. India's consumer inflation rate likely softened in March to 5.80%, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit of 6% for the first time this year, according to a Reuters poll. "India inflation is way less important (than U.S.) for how the rupee will open tomorrow," the spot trader said.

☆ India's retail inflation eases below RBI's upper tolerance level
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, April 12 (Reuters) - India's annual retail inflation for March eased below the central bank's upper tolerance level for the first time this year, as food prices softened. Annual retail inflation eased to 5.66% in March from 6.44% in the previous month, government data showed on Wednesday. A Reuters poll of 39 economists had forecast an annual inflation rate of 5.80% in March. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, moderated to 4.79% as vegetable prices eased, offsetting surging cereal prices. RBI's sudden pause came even as retail inflation has remained above the central bank's mandated target range for 10 out of the 13 readings.

The U.S. CPI inflation report for March will go a long way to determining what the Fed decides at its May 2-3 policy meeting. Markets expect headline inflation to continue slowing, but are still shifting towards pricing in another quarter point rate hike. Finance ministers and central bank officials from around the world are in Washington for this week's International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings. The IMF on Tuesday trimmed its global growth outlook for this year and next as higher interest rates bite, and warned that the risk of "perilous" financial turmoil could slash output to near recessionary levels. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington- India CPI inflation (March)- U.S. CPI inflation (March)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee falls past 82/USD despite dollar weakness; outflows likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 11 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined past the key psychological mark of 82 per dollar on Tuesday on likely corporate outflows and importer demand for the greenback, traders said. The rupee finished at 82.1250 to the dollar, having declined up to 82.15 during the session. They also cited importer demand through the session. So far, companies and bankers have had a bias towards rupee appreciation on improving macro economic fundamentals and carry trade appeal. "A sharp pick-up in services exports, increased smartphone exports and savings in the oil import bill... have likely altered India's CAD permanently."

☆ India c.bank set to raise rates 25 bps on elevated inflation, keep hawkish stance
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The central bank has already raised rates by 250 basis points since May last year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, was also expected to have stayed high between 6.05%-6.12% in February, according to estimates from three economists. "The policy space to focus on inflation is lent by domestic growth conditions holding-up, supported by urban consumption and services sector recovery," Sen Gupta said. Early signs of a slowdown in India are also visible in easing imports and plateuing bank credit demand. The Reuters Poll showed that a majority of respondents, 20 of 36, expect the central bank would maintain its 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance while the remaining 16 said it would shift to neutral.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ Asia markets trade mixed; India expected to raise repo rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is displayed outside of the bank's headquarters in Mumbai, India, on Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2011. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Thursday as Wall Street digested the latest ADP private payrolls report, which showed slowing job growth in March. India's central bank is also expected to raise its repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, according to economists polled by Reuters. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, looked set to trade higher, with Hang Seng futures at 20,421 compared to Tuesday's close of 20,274.59. Japan will release data for its household spending for February, and China will see private surveys on its services sector activity as well.

☆ India inflation seen easing in March on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT, April 12BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.80% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the first time this year, a Reuters poll of economists found. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00% RBI upper tolerance limit. But with oil prices having surged more than 20% from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. Inflation was expected to average 5.2% in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0%, according to a separate Reuters poll.

The central bank said its policy stance remains focused on "withdrawal of accommodation", signalling it could consider further rate hikes if necessary. The monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50%. Most analysts had expected one final 25 basis point hike in the RBI's current tightening cycle, which has seen it raise the repo rate by a total 250 bps since May last year. The central bank sees inflation at 5.2% in 2023-24, and GDP growth is seen at 6.5% in the financial year beginning April 1. Reuters GraphicsFinancial stability concerns appear to have prompted the pause in rate hikes, said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA.

☆ Indian shares set to open lower ahead of RBI policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - Indian shares are poised to open lower on Thursday, ahead of what many expect to be the Reserve Bank of India's final interest rate hike in the current cycle. India's NSE stock futures listed on the Singapore exchange were down 0.12% at 17,603 as of 7:59 a.m. IST. The MSCI's gauge of the broader index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.42%. ** Equitas Small Finance Bank Ltd (EQUI.NS): Co posts 36% YoY growth in gross advances at 280.61 billion rupees in the quarter-ended March. ** Avenue Supermarts Ltd (AVEU.NS): Co posts standalone revenue from operations at 103.37 billion rupees for the quarter-ended March, up 20% YoY; total stores at 324.

April 6 (Reuters) - There will be no Asia Morning Bid on Friday, April 7. Chinese services PMI and Australian trade figures are also on the docket Thursday, while remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe on could shed further light on the RBA's outlook following Tuesday's policy decision. chartIt's a difficult one to call, and after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish surprise on Wednesday, investors would do well to be humble in their predictions. Wall Street is finally buckling, rates markets are now gunning for almost 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year and the dollar is sagging. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Indian rupee set to weaken further in coming months: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, April 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, will fall further in the coming months and is expected to drift back to trade around where it is now in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists. Median forecasts from 40 respondents to a March 31-April 4 Reuters poll showed the rupee trading at 82.40/dollar by the end of the month and 82.55/dollar by the end of June. However, a fifth of respondents forecast the currency will change hands at 82.90/dollar or weaker as early as next month. A strong majority of poll respondents who answered an additional question, 13 of 16, said risks to their forecast were skewed towards the rupee being even weaker over the next month. "A key driver of the Indian rupee will continue to be the RBI's FX intervention strategy," noted Lin Li, head of global markets research Asia at MUFG.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee to weaken as oil prices jump on unexpected OPEC+ output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open lower versus the U.S. dollar on Monday after a surprise production cut by OPEC+ fuelled a jump in oil prices. The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.35-82.40 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.1650 in the previous session. A rise in oil prices directly affects the Indian economy and the rupee as the country imports about 83% of its oil requirements, said Anil Bhansali, head treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors. According to estimates by some economists, a 10% hike in oil prices leads to an increase in India’s current account deficit by 0.3% to 0.5% of the GDP. Apart from oil prices, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy decision on Thursday and the U.S. jobs report on Friday will be key for the rupee this week.

REUTERS/Thomas White/IllustrationMUMBAI/NEW DELHI, April 3 (Reuters) - A surge in India's services exports, which hit a record high in the October-December quarter, is expected to shield the economy from external risks as a slowing global economy will likely weigh on the country's merchandise exports. Services exports will likely surpass goods exports by March 2025, he said. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIT services still accounted for 45% of India's total services exports in April-December. EXTERNAL SHIELDThe continued rise in services exports is likely to help rein in India's current account deficit. There is room for further growth with India's share in world commercial services exports currently just at around 4%."

☆ Morning Bid: A holiday kickoff to the second quarter, and a US jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Alden Bentley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Alden Bentley. Asia's data calendar across the rest of the week otherwise looks fairly tame and the main economic event for global markets will be U.S. payrolls data on Friday. So given the number of markets that are closed on, or before, Friday, the week could bring surprises of a pleasant, or not pleasant, variety. But any surprise headlines, be they OPEC or bank related, will have to be digested by thinned markets, which can bring excessive market swings. This week will bring CPI releases from Indonesia on Monday, South Korea on Tuesday and Thailand and the Philippines on Wednesday.

☆ India slashes current account deficit in Dec-qtr as trade gap narrows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, March 31 (Reuters) - India's current account deficit shrank more than expected in the October-December quarter on the back of a narrower goods trade deficit alongside robust services exports and remittances, data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed on Friday. In absolute terms, the current account deficit (INCURA=ECI) was $18.2 billion in the third quarter of fiscal year 2022/23 compared with $22.2 billion last year. The goods trade deficit in the December quarter narrowed to $72.7 billion compared with $78.3 billion in the preceding quarter, the central bank said. The country's balance of payments (INBOP=ECI) recorded a surplus of $11.1 billion compared to a $0.5 billion surplus in the same quarter a year earlier. Reporting by Swati Bhat Additional reporting by Sudipto Ganguly; Editing by Frank Jack DanielOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ RBI to raise rates once more on April 6 but leave door open for more - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A majority of economists in the March 23-28 Reuters poll also said the RBI would then keep the rate steady for the rest of the year. A majority of respondents, 20 of 36, said the central bank would maintain its withdrawal of accommodation stance at the April meeting. Until that is behind us, the RBI probably will not be very comfortable in signalling that they are done with rate hikes," said QuantEco's Kumar. In last month's poll, all economists said the bigger risk was it would be higher than they predicted. The Indian economy was forecast to grow 6.9% this fiscal year and then slow to 6.0% in the next.

☆ India's April-September borrowing slightly above market expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Nikunj Ohri | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The planned April-September borrowing constitutes about 57.6% of the total 15.43 trillion rupees planned for the current fiscal year, the government said in a statement on Wednesday. Borrowing in the first six months is slightly above market expectations of about 55% of this year's target. The government said the borrowing will be done through bonds of three, five, seven, 10, 14, 30 and 40 years tenure. It plans to borrow between 310 billion and 390 billion rupees a week in the first half of the fiscal year. The government plans net borrowing of 1.42 trillion rupees in the quarter ending June 30, compared with 2.40 trillion rupees in the same period last year.

NEW DELHI, March 27 (Reuters) - Indian banks must give defaulters an opportunity to be heard before they classify a loan account as fraud, the Supreme Court ruled on Monday. Banks cannot unilaterally declare an account as fraud without providing the defaulter the right to be heard, a top court bench led by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud said. However, there is no such requirement before registering a first information report (FIR) to declare a loan account as fraud, the bench observed. The apex court was examining judgements by the Telangana High Court and Gujarat High Court on the Reserve Bank of India (Frauds Classification and Reporting by Commercial Banks and Select Fls Directions 2016) master circular. Telangana High Court had ruled that not granting the right to be heard infringes on the borrowers' constitutional right.

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) bondholders are seeking legal advice after the Swiss regulator ordered 16 billion Swiss francs ($17.5 billion) of Additional Tier-1 (AT1) debt to be wiped out under its rescue takeover by UBS (UBSG.S). Not only did bondholders expect protection, but UBS is paying $3.23 billion to Credit Suisse shareholders. One Paris-based manager of a debt fund that held Credit Suisse AT1s said he had been "spammed" with emails from lawyers. Facing any challenge could be Credit Suisse, its new owner UBS, Swiss regulator FINMA or the Swiss government. It also cited an emergency March 19 ordinance which it said authorised FINMA to instruct Credit Suisse to write off the bonds.

☆ Explainer: Why markets are in uproar over a risky bank bond known as AT1
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Here are some of the implications of the Credit Suisse AT1 bond write-down. WHAT IS AN AT1 BOND? Credit Suisse AT1 holders, therefore, are the only ones not to receive any kind of compensation. It is not the first time that the treatment of AT1 bonds in a bank overhaul has caused controversy. The decision to write down Credit Suisse AT1 bonds to zero is viewed as negative for the AT1 bond market globally.

☆ SVB Crisis Tests India’s New Finance Hub Potential
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Megha Mandavia | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Many Indian startups rushed this week to open new bank accounts in India’s Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, known as GIFT city. The swift collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has cast an aspiring Indian finance center into sudden relief. India, which has long been a bit player in global finance, has a chance to boost its role—but only if it moves swiftly to rectify some regulatory barriers. This week, many Indian startups rushed to open new bank accounts in India’s Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, known as GIFT city, once they regained access to their SVB deposits. Accounts set up within the hub’s International Financial Services Center, or IFSC, are free of India’s stringent capital controls since the funds are held in U.S. dollars.

☆ Fed's best option is to hike rates by 25 basis points and watch for a month and a half: Professor
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's best option is to hike rates by 25 basis points and watch for a month and a half: ProfessorRaghuram G Rajan of The University of Chicago Booth School, formerly governor of the Reserve Bank of India, says "doing zero would convey inappropriate signals at this point."

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