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☆ Explainer: Why El Nino is a concern for Indian monsoon rains?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Rajendra Jadhav | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However, a 90% likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern developing during the June-September monsoon season raises the possibility of less than normal rain. WHAT IS EL NINO? As a result, the Indian monsoon tends to be weaker and less reliable during El Nino years. HOW CLOSE IS THE CORRELATION BETWEEN EL NINO AND MONSOON RAIN? The correlation between El Nino and Indian monsoon rainfall is significant, despite occasional instances when India gets normal or above-normal rain during El Nino years.

☆ India's WPI falls for first time in 3 years in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies April WPI falls 0.92% on year vs 1.34% rise in MarchApril food WPI up 0.17% vs 2.32% in MarchWPI easing for the last 11 monthsNEW DELHI, May 15 (Reuters) - India's annual wholesale price index (WPI) fell for the first time in nearly three years in April, as prices softened across the board. WPI (INWPI=ECI) fell by 0.92% from the same month a year earlier, having risen 1.34% in March. "High base effect and falling commodity prices will lend downward pressure on WPI inflation this year," said Madan Sabnavis, an economist at Bank of Baroda. WPI has been easing for the last 11 months from the 20-year highs of 16.63% recorded in May 2022. Data released on Friday showed India's annual retail inflation eased to an 18-month low in April, staying well below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month.

☆ India inflation likely hit 18-month low in April - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Predictions ranged from 4.40% to 5.80%, with respondents expecting inflation to remain below the RBI's 6.00% upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month. "Food inflation was a mixed bag on the month, with cereals and vegetables easing, whilst pulses and milk rose. "With inflation off the boil besides core (inflation), the RBI is likely to remain on an extended pause." However, inflation was expected to remain well above the RBI's medium-term target of 4.0% in the coming quarters, according to a separate poll. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), which measures the change in producer prices, is likely to have fallen to -0.20% last month compared to a year ago.

☆ India's forex reserves at comfortable level due to RBI, dollar - economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 9 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves are at a comfortable level currently, benefiting from the Reserve Bank of India's persistent intervention and the likelihood of less volatile revaluation changes, economists said. Reuters GraphicsSince October 2022, the RBI has been rebuilding the reserves, taking advantage of the rupee's recovery. Reuters GraphicsSince October, "comfort on the level of reserves has improved significantly," said Gaura Sen Gupta, economist at IDFC First Bank. "Reserves (both spot and forwards) are now equivalent to 10.4 months of import cover, compared with about 8.9% in Oct 2022." And provides an added layer of comfort as far as the adequacy of forex reserves is concerned.

☆ India's HDFC beats Q4 profit estimates on home loan demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HDFC said profit after tax rose to 44.26 billion rupees ($541.09 million) for the three months ended March 31, from 37 billion rupees a year earlier. Analysts, on average, had expected profit after tax of 38.86 billion rupees, according to Refinitiv IBES data. The lender said it provided individual loans worth 93.40 billion rupees during the quarter, compared with 83.67 billion rupees a year earlier. HDFC is on track to merge with India's largest private lender HDFC Bank Ltd (HDBK.NS). The RBI in April allowed HDFC and HDFC Bank selective regulatory relief in order to smooth out the merger between the two entities.

☆ HDFC Bank to open more than 675 branches in semi-urban, rural areas in fiscal year 2024, bank official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Siddhi Nayak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MUMBAI, May 4 (Reuters) - HDFC Bank (HDBK.NS), India's largest private lender, is planning to open more than 675 branches in the semi-urban and rural geographies across the country in 2023-24, a senior bank official said on Thursday. The move is part of the lender's new programme targeting customers in semi-urban and rural areas, helping the bank meet some of its Priority Sector Lending (PSL) targets. PSL requirements, which include lending to weaker segments of the economy, are linked to an organisation's loan book. Of this, around 52% of the bank's branches are in the semi-urban and rural areas. Going forward, HDFC Bank aims to double business in semi-urban and rural areas - both by assets and liabilities - in the next two-to-three years, Vohra said.

☆ Russia and India reportedly halt talks over using rupees for trade, with Moscow preferring to be paid in Chinese yuan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia and India have suspended negotiations over using rupees for trade, Reuters reported. Russia wants to be paid in Chinese yuan or other currencies, a second Indian government official involved in the discussions told Reuters. India began exploring a rupee settlement mechanism with Russia soon after Moscow launched war against the former Soviet state. No reported deals have been conducted using rupees, Reuters reported. A currency dispute between Russia and India left deliveries of Russian weapons to India on hold, Bloomberg reported last month.

☆ Indian rupee headed higher on weak dollar, fall in US yields; Fed awaited
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, May 3 (Reuters) - Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Wednesday, boosted by a broad decline on the U.S. dollar and plunge in yields amid worries over the U.S. banking sector. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 81.76-81.80 to the dollar compared to 81.88 in the previous session. The rupee reached 81.7225 on Tuesday, before dollar bids by public sector banks, probably for the Reserve Bank of India, prompted it to reverse course. The U.S. Federal Reserve will most likely raise rates by 25 basis points later in the day, interest rate futures indicate. Investors will be eyeing the U.S. central bank's forward guidance to assess the path ahead for interest rates.

☆ India April factory activity hits 4-month high on robust demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, May 1 (Reuters) - India's factory activity expanded at its quickest pace in four months in April, driven by solid growth in new orders and output, a private survey showed on Monday, signaling resilient demand and an encouraging outlook. The survey results suggest India will continue to be one of the fastest-growing major economies despite slowing global growth that has undermined momentum across several other countries. "Reflecting a robust and quicker expansion in new orders, production growth took another step forward in April. Besides seeing the strongest inflow of new work in 2023 so far, capacities were expanded through job creation, input buying was lifted." Foreign demand also expanded at the fastest pace in four months in April and optimism improved.

☆ India's Kotak Mahindra Bank beats expectations with 26% net profit rise in Jan-March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 29(Reuters) - India's Kotak Mahindra Bank (KTKM.NS) on Saturday reported a better-than-expected 26% increase in net profit for the January-March quarter, helped by higher net interest income and strong loan growth. The private lender's standalone net profit, excluding subsidiaries, rose to 34.96 billion rupees ($427.8 million) in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year from 27.67 billion rupees in the same period last year. The result beat analysts' forecast of 29.13 billion rupees, according to Refinitiv data. Net interest income - the difference between interest earned and interest expended - increased 35% to 61.03 billion rupees from 45.21 billion rupees a year ago. Thanks to strong credit growth, large private banks such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank reported a double-digit profit growth for the Jan-March quarter.

☆ Asia's richest banker will loom over his successor
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It will also be messy and is at odds with the regulator’s own aim to improve governance across the industry. Bosses of the country’s private-sector banks are allowed to stay in their jobs for up to 15 years. It is little surprise that more than 99% of investors voted for him to stay, per exchange filings published last week. If Kotak sits on the board, his successor - expected to be an insider – will effectively continue to work with his or her long-time boss. If things go wrong at Kotak, regulators may end up wondering who to blame.

Unsecured loans – mostly personal loans and credit cards – do not carry any collateral and therefore pose higher risk. Indian banks have been growing their unsecured lending portfolio as the pandemic-induced stress began to ease. "Risks in unsecured lending has been on the RBI's radar," said a senior official at a private bank. This has pushed up the weighted average lending rate of banks by 95 bps in the same period. "It is trying to identify early warning signals in unsecured lending to not be caught off guard later."

☆ India's forex reserves jump to 9-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

MUMBAI, April 14 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) jumped to $584.76 billion for the week ended April 7, the highest in nine months, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) statistical supplement showed on Friday. The central bank intervenes in the spot and forwards markets to prevent runaway moves in the rupee . Changes in forex reserves also stem from valuation gains or losses. For the reported week, the rupee ended 0.3% higher against the U.S. dollar. The rupee closed at 81.85 on Thursday and clocked its fourth consecutive weekly rise for the holiday-shortened week ending April 14.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee to inch up ahead of key US inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.06-82.10 to the U.S. dollar compared with 82.12 in the previous session. Heading into the data, investors are pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 bps points at the May meeting. The India inflation data is due a few hours before the U.S. number. India's consumer inflation rate likely softened in March to 5.80%, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit of 6% for the first time this year, according to a Reuters poll. "India inflation is way less important (than U.S.) for how the rupee will open tomorrow," the spot trader said.

☆ India's retail inflation eases below RBI's upper tolerance level
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, April 12 (Reuters) - India's annual retail inflation for March eased below the central bank's upper tolerance level for the first time this year, as food prices softened. Annual retail inflation eased to 5.66% in March from 6.44% in the previous month, government data showed on Wednesday. A Reuters poll of 39 economists had forecast an annual inflation rate of 5.80% in March. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, moderated to 4.79% as vegetable prices eased, offsetting surging cereal prices. RBI's sudden pause came even as retail inflation has remained above the central bank's mandated target range for 10 out of the 13 readings.

The U.S. CPI inflation report for March will go a long way to determining what the Fed decides at its May 2-3 policy meeting. Markets expect headline inflation to continue slowing, but are still shifting towards pricing in another quarter point rate hike. Finance ministers and central bank officials from around the world are in Washington for this week's International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings. The IMF on Tuesday trimmed its global growth outlook for this year and next as higher interest rates bite, and warned that the risk of "perilous" financial turmoil could slash output to near recessionary levels. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington- India CPI inflation (March)- U.S. CPI inflation (March)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee falls past 82/USD despite dollar weakness; outflows likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 11 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined past the key psychological mark of 82 per dollar on Tuesday on likely corporate outflows and importer demand for the greenback, traders said. The rupee finished at 82.1250 to the dollar, having declined up to 82.15 during the session. They also cited importer demand through the session. So far, companies and bankers have had a bias towards rupee appreciation on improving macro economic fundamentals and carry trade appeal. "A sharp pick-up in services exports, increased smartphone exports and savings in the oil import bill... have likely altered India's CAD permanently."

The central bank said its policy stance remains focused on "withdrawal of accommodation", signalling it could consider further rate hikes if necessary. The monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50%. Most analysts had expected one final 25 basis point hike in the RBI's current tightening cycle, which has seen it raise the repo rate by a total 250 bps since May last year. The central bank sees inflation at 5.2% in 2023-24, and GDP growth is seen at 6.5% in the financial year beginning April 1. Reuters GraphicsFinancial stability concerns appear to have prompted the pause in rate hikes, said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA.

☆ Indian shares set to open lower ahead of RBI policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - Indian shares are poised to open lower on Thursday, ahead of what many expect to be the Reserve Bank of India's final interest rate hike in the current cycle. India's NSE stock futures listed on the Singapore exchange were down 0.12% at 17,603 as of 7:59 a.m. IST. The MSCI's gauge of the broader index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.42%. ** Equitas Small Finance Bank Ltd (EQUI.NS): Co posts 36% YoY growth in gross advances at 280.61 billion rupees in the quarter-ended March. ** Avenue Supermarts Ltd (AVEU.NS): Co posts standalone revenue from operations at 103.37 billion rupees for the quarter-ended March, up 20% YoY; total stores at 324.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ India inflation seen easing in March on softening food price rises: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Data due at 1200 GMT, April 12BENGALURU, April 6 (Reuters) - India's consumer inflation likely eased in March to 5.80% thanks to softer food price rises, dipping below the Reserve Bank of India's upper tolerance limit for the first time this year, a Reuters poll of economists found. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices. If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00% RBI upper tolerance limit. But with oil prices having surged more than 20% from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. Inflation was expected to average 5.2% in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0%, according to a separate Reuters poll.

☆ Asia markets trade mixed; India expected to raise repo rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is displayed outside of the bank's headquarters in Mumbai, India, on Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2011. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Thursday as Wall Street digested the latest ADP private payrolls report, which showed slowing job growth in March. India's central bank is also expected to raise its repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, according to economists polled by Reuters. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, looked set to trade higher, with Hang Seng futures at 20,421 compared to Tuesday's close of 20,274.59. Japan will release data for its household spending for February, and China will see private surveys on its services sector activity as well.

☆ India c.bank set to raise rates 25 bps on elevated inflation, keep hawkish stance
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The central bank has already raised rates by 250 basis points since May last year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, was also expected to have stayed high between 6.05%-6.12% in February, according to estimates from three economists. "The policy space to focus on inflation is lent by domestic growth conditions holding-up, supported by urban consumption and services sector recovery," Sen Gupta said. Early signs of a slowdown in India are also visible in easing imports and plateuing bank credit demand. The Reuters Poll showed that a majority of respondents, 20 of 36, expect the central bank would maintain its 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance while the remaining 16 said it would shift to neutral.

April 6 (Reuters) - There will be no Asia Morning Bid on Friday, April 7. Chinese services PMI and Australian trade figures are also on the docket Thursday, while remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe on could shed further light on the RBA's outlook following Tuesday's policy decision. chartIt's a difficult one to call, and after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish surprise on Wednesday, investors would do well to be humble in their predictions. Wall Street is finally buckling, rates markets are now gunning for almost 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year and the dollar is sagging. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Indian rupee set to weaken further in coming months: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Madhumita Gokhale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, April 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, one of the worst-performing Asian currencies last year, will fall further in the coming months and is expected to drift back to trade around where it is now in 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists. Median forecasts from 40 respondents to a March 31-April 4 Reuters poll showed the rupee trading at 82.40/dollar by the end of the month and 82.55/dollar by the end of June. However, a fifth of respondents forecast the currency will change hands at 82.90/dollar or weaker as early as next month. A strong majority of poll respondents who answered an additional question, 13 of 16, said risks to their forecast were skewed towards the rupee being even weaker over the next month. "A key driver of the Indian rupee will continue to be the RBI's FX intervention strategy," noted Lin Li, head of global markets research Asia at MUFG.

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