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Among the various reassessments of Kevin McCarthy following his successful debt ceiling negotiations, the one with the widest implications belongs to Matthew Continetti, who writes in The Washington Free Beacon that “McCarthy’s superpower is his desire to be speaker. He likes and wants his job.”If you hadn’t followed American politics across the last few decades, this would seem like a peculiar statement: What kind of House speaker wouldn’t want the job? But part of what’s gone wrong with American institutions lately is the failure of important figures to regard their positions as ends unto themselves. On the Republican side, this tendency has taken several forms, from Newt Gingrich’s yearning to be a Great Man of History, to Ted Cruz’s ambitious grandstanding in the Obama years, to the emergence of Trump-era performance artists like Marjorie Taylor Greene. And the party’s congressional institutionalists, from dealmakers like John Boehner to policy mavens like Paul Ryan, have often been miserable-seeming prisoners of the talking heads, celebrity brands and would-be presidents.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Matthew Continetti, hadn’t, wouldn’t, what’s, Yuval Levin, , Newt Gingrich’s, Ted Cruz’s, Obama, Marjorie Taylor Greene, John Boehner, Paul Ryan Organizations: Washington Free, American Enterprise Institute, Republican, Trump Locations: Washington
The debt deal capped national security spending in fiscal 2024 at $886 billion, which is what U.S. President Joe Biden requested. Ordinarily, some of the $16 billion worth of unfunded priorities would get tacked on, as well as billions worth of lawmaker initiatives. In recent years Congress has increased defense spending by more than any president requests, generally by tens of billions of dollars. This year, the debt ceiling deal could make that more difficult. That Ukraine supplemental spending request is now expected to include a broader range of military spending and could include some items and pet projects left behind.
Persons: Joe Biden, Abrams, Lockheed Martin, Biden, Mackenzie Eaglen, Eaglen, Mike Stone, Patricia Zengerle, David Holmes Organizations: U.S, Department of Defense, General Dynamics, Lockheed, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Congressional, Pentagon, Congress, Democratic, Republican, American Enterprise Institute, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Washington
In the 20-city version of the index, all 20 of the cities saw home prices rise month-over-month. "That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months." "A shortage of listings, plentiful jobs, and strong wage growth are largely offsetting the headwind to housing from high mortgage rates," Adams told Insider. Their reasons include high mortgage rates, historically low affordability, and a potential recession. Below, we've listed in descending order the six cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index that posted month-over-month growth of at least 2%.
Persons: Craig J, Lazzara, Bill Adams, Adams, Suisse's Ray Farris, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Ian Shepherdson, American Enterprise Institute's Desmond Lachman, Skylar Olsen Organizations: Home, NSA, Redfin, Comerica Bank, American Enterprise Locations: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Minneapolis, West Coast, Miami , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina
Noncompete clauses likely violate federal labor law, NLRB's general counsel wrote Tuesday. Criticism from across the aisleWorker advocates have long maintained that noncompete clauses are an unjust infringement on liberty that reduces employees' earning potential. But noncompete clauses have also attracted critics on the right. The criticism from both sides of the political spectrum comes as noncompete clauses have expanded from high-salary workers in fields such as technology and finance to lower-wage professions, such as fast food. That proposed rule, which will be subject to a legal challenge if and when it is finalized, came after the White House encouraged the commission to tackle noncompete clauses, framing them as a barrier to healthy competition and wage growth.
Persons: NLRB's, , Joe Biden, Jennifer Abruzzo, Biden, Najah Farley, John Lettieri, Insider's Juliana Kaplan Organizations: Workers, Service, Companies, National Labor Relations Board, National Labor Relations Act, Worker, National Employment Law, American Enterprise Institute, Federal Trade Commission, House Locations: Abruzzo, California , Massachusetts, Illinois
Why China and Japan are praying the US won’t default
  + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. China was the largest foreign creditor to the United States for more than a decade. The falling value of Treasuries would lead to a drop in Japan and China’s foreign reserves. “If the United States defaults on its debt, it will not only discredit the United States, but also bring real financial losses to China,” it said. Analysts say Beijing has shown little willingness to fully integrate with global financial markets.
Credit Suisse's Chief US Economist Ray Farris says home prices will see a 'long recession.' Rather, the market is likely to go through a sort of holding period, where activity stays low and prices neither boom nor bust. You can spread the housing market over many more locales in the US and that's what's happening." And the way I think of that, as a base case, it means that even as mortgage rates come down, the housing market doesn't recover rapidly. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner is one economist that — like Farris — doesn't expect a recession, and only sees prices falling another 4% this year.
This will drag 30-year mortgage rates — which track closely with 10-year Treasury rates because they typically have a lifespan of around 12 years — down to 6% or lower. One might argue that falling mortgage rates would also stimulate demand enough to meet the rise in supply, holding prices relatively steady. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but mortgage applications are still falling. Tight monetary policy and a pullback in lending will lead to a cooling labor market, he said, and that's bad for housing demand. Below is the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index, which takes into account incomes, home prices, and mortgage rates.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAEI: Debt ceiling negotiations are coming, but the murky details are worrisomeJames Pethokoukis, Economic Policy Analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, discusses the looming debt ceiling deadline.
Opinion | Politics Can’t Fix What Ails Us
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( David French | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
I’ve been watching this phenomenon as well, and wrote my own, similar piece, back in 2021. But it’s worth contemplating in part because it is but one of multiple significant negative cultural changes that doesn’t seem to have clear political solutions. Most Americans report significant feelings of non-belonging. Friendship and religious membership had declined for both groups, but the decline was much more pronounced for those with no college education. I don’t want this newsletter to be too depressing, but there are many more similarly disheartening social statistics.
WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had counted on a productive state legislative session this spring to turbocharge his coming 2024 presidential bid. With the first presidential nominating contest still nine months away, political analysts say DeSantis has plenty of time to turn his fortunes around. Lawmakers on Tuesday passed an immigration measure that would provide more money for DeSantis’ program for relocating undocumented migrants. POTENTIAL PERILSThe six-week abortion ban remains the thorniest outcome of the session for DeSantis’ national aspirations. The governor did not expressly advocate for the bill, and he signed it without fanfare to replace the current 15-week ban.
A credit crunch, an already-slowing economy, and the debt-ceiling standoff risk a downturn. If these smaller institutions are loaning out less money, this further hurts demand in the housing market, meaning home prices have to fall accordingly. On the other hand, a credit crunch puts the US economy at significant risk of a recession, Lachman said. "Housing gets hit by tighter credit conditions, but then it also gets hit if the economy goes into recession." KPMG's Yelena Maleyev believes prices could fall as much as 20%, while Interactive Brokers' José Torres sees 15% downside.
A map shows all the locations in Russia, along its border with Ukraine, and in Russian-held Ukraine, where the American Enterprise Institute found any kind of fortification built by Russia. Four maps show when the fortifications built by Russian along its border with Ukraine and in Russia-held Ukraine were first spotted on satellite imagery. In December 2022 and January 2023, fortifications appeared inside Russian regions and more parts of occupied Ukraine. Russian forces have dug many such trenches along what they see as key roads and junctions, and outside strategic cities, Africk said. A zoomed-in map shows fortifications around several towns such as Tokmak, Bilmak and Mykhailivka, along plain terrain and along major roads in Russian-held Ukraine.
Russia digs in as Ukraine prepares to attack
  + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Tom Balmforth | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +9 min
And in the case of Polohy, Russia has constructed two distinct defensive lines, one to the north and one to the south. Musiyenko estimated that Ukraine would have a force of between 100,000-110,000 for an attack, including eight assault brigades with a total of 40,000 troops. Russia has not said how many troops it has in Ukraine, or within its borders ready to deploy. A leaked U.S. intelligence document dated Feb. 28 seen by Reuters said the West had committed 200 tanks to Ukraine. Army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said in December he needed 300 to defeat Russia, along with other vehicles and artillery.
Seoul, South Korea CNN —When the presidents of the United States and South Korea this week announced a landmark deal to deter North Korean aggression, one element of the pact stood out. Here’s what you need to know about the submarine and why it’s heading to South Korea. The Nuclear Threat Initiative at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies estimates that each Trident missile can carry four nuclear warheads, meaning each US ballistic missile submarine could be carrying about 80 nuclear warheads. One arriving in South Korea on a port visit – which must be arranged 24 to 48 hours in advance – would be far more visible, giving North Korea an advantage, Schuster said. Kim’s threats have prompted some in South Korea to call for Seoul to become a nuclear-armed power itself.
Sadanand Dhume writes a biweekly column on India and South Asia for WSJ.com. Mr. Dhume is also a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C. Mr. Dhume is the author of “My Friend the Fanatic: Travels with a Radical Islamist,” (Skyhorse Publishing, 2009), which charts the rise of the radical Islamist movement in Indonesia. Mr. Dhume holds a bachelor’s degree in sociology from the University of Delhi, a master’s degree in international relations from Princeton University and a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University. He lives in Washington, D.C. with his wife, and travels frequently to India.
Ben Shapiro is a right-wing media personality who does not appear to have any direct ties to Crow, but he defended him all the same. Harlan Crow, by his own testimony and according to his defenders, goes to get angry. I don’t think Crow is a Nazi or an admirer of dictators and authoritarians. But I don’t think we should take his explanation for his collection at face value either. A monument to Robert E. Lee stood for Robert E. Lee.
EU urges firm results, green alliance from US trade talks
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BRUSSELS, April 12 (Reuters) - The United States and the European Union need to produce clear results next month from their forum on trade and technology and forge closer ties on green products and technology, European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Wednesday. "We should also be aiming to move forward on digital and sustainable trade," Dombrovskis said. The transatlantic partners should, he said, help set common standards for green goods and technologies, ensure fair competition and build resilient supply chains. Dombrovskis said the two should work to align the domestic supports of the IRA and the EU Green Deal, so "turbo-charging" the green transition. In my view, we should be aiming for nothing less than a green transatlantic marketplace," Dombrovskis said.
WHO IS HARLAN CROW? Crow, 74, is the chairman and former CEO of Crow Holdings, a Texas-based family real estate firm established to manage the capital of the Trammell Crow family. While his net worth is unclear, Crow Holdings had $19.6 billion in assets under management in 2020. Harlan Crow was pivotal in restructuring the company’s debt in the 1980s, saving it from bankruptcy, according to media reports. HARLAN CROW'S POLITICAL LEANINGSCrow has a history of donating to conservative causes.
A ProPublica report found Clarence Thomas has been taking vacations paid for by a GOP megadonor. A Supreme Court spokesperson did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment on Thursday. "Justice Thomas and Ginni never asked for any of this hospitality," Crow said. "We have never asked about a pending or lower court case, and Justice Thomas has never discussed one, and we have never sought to influence Justice Thomas on any legal or political issue," he added. And unlike the rest of the federal judiciary, the Supreme Court is not bound by a code of conduct.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBetter supply and demand balance is close-at-hand: Macropolicy Perspectives' Julia CoronadoMacropolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado, and Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the recent jobless claims data, Strain's emphasis on the levels in yields, and more.
How Russia’s Offensive Ran Aground
  + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Josh Holder | Marco Hernandez | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +15 min
But within months of the invasion, Russia’s rapid advances ran out of steam, even as it narrowed its ambitions and focused on eastern Ukraine. No Russian gains No Russian gains No Russian gainsIn September 2022 Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in September 2022. No Russian gains No Russian gains No Russian gainsIn October 2022 Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in October 2022. Russia captured the small salt-mining town. Kurdiumivka Soledar Kurdiumivka Soledar Russia captured the small salt-mining town.
The insidious creep of job burnout was inescapable when I spoke with more than a dozen ambitious midcareer women for an article last winter. While work friendships can stifle loneliness, the centrality of a job in American social life does not bode particularly well for Americans' work-life balance. For those who've put all their eggs in the proverbial basket of their job, Koretz said, these times of transition can trigger a kind of identity crisis. The idea is that you just work and work and work and work and work. Workers can also take small steps toward improving their work-life balance by setting aside time each day and each week for nonwork priorities.
The research finds 37.8% of adults 65 and over would have incomes below the official poverty line without Social Security benefits. With Social Security benefits, 9% of older adults have incomes below the poverty line. But reducing poverty through and outside of Social Security beyond a sliding scale minimum benefit may be a better approach, she said. Moreover, the maximum Social Security retirement benefit is two to three times higher than what countries like the United Kingdom, Canada or Australia pay. "We're going way, way beyond a pure safety net program," Biggs said.
But if the headlines stemming from the annual report of the Social Security trustees jangled you, take a deep breath. The report, released on March 31, forecasts that the Social Security retirement trust fund reserves will be depleted in 2033. What does the new Social Security forecast mean for current and future retirees? But the trust fund also can accumulate balances when Social Security runs surpluses, as has been the case for the last several decades. A: Social Security collects FICA contributions only up to a certain level of wages - $160,200 this year.
‘Equal Occupational Fatality Day’
  + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
But to understand the folly of comparing aggregate statistics, consider Equal Occupational Fatality Day. That’s a commemoration coined as a thought experiment some years ago by economist Mark Perry , a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, who updated his numbers again this week. America’s most dangerous job in 2021, according to the official data, was held by loggers, who were 96% men. Also high on the list were roofers, 97.1% men, and electrical power line installers and repairers, 99.3% men. The most sex-balanced occupation in the top 10 most dangerous was trash collecting, 87.9% men.
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