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☆ How Vodafone-Three can woo competition regulators
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Vodafone (VOD.L) hopes that three will be its magic number. A merger of Vodafone’s domestic unit with Three UK, the Hong Kong conglomerate’s British business, would shrink the number of mobile operators to three from four. Mobile operators throughout Europe have long lamented antitrust authorities’ preference for keeping at least four players in a market to ensure price competition. Yet Vodafone’s case would be easier to defend if UK operators hadn’t hiked their tariffs in unison by about 11% last spring, a move they seem likely to repeat again this year. That would place the competition watchdog with a tougher choice: slick 5G networks, or four low-priced operators.

☆ BNP only partly earns title of Europe’s JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, May 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bank investors and analysts often like to say that BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) is the closest Europe has to a JPMorgan (JPM.N), the goliath of U.S. banking that just bought First Republic Bank (FRC.N). Compare that with Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE), whose deposits fell by 4.7% over the same period. JPMorgan will earn a 19% return on tangible equity this year, using Visible Alpha consensus data, which is good even for a U.S. bank. There’s no shame in losing to a bigger stateside rival on returns, but BNP also risks falling behind regional peers. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ UK listing shakeup requires double dose of hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Neil Unmack | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Financial Conduct Authority isn’t the only watchdog to water down its listing rules, but it has more reasons than most to up its game. The UK prides itself on being a financial hub, but accounted for just 5% of global IPOs between 2015 and 2020. That’s why the FCA is proposing to replace a fiddly two-tier system of standard and “premium” listing rules with a single class. CONTEXT NEWSThe UK Financial Conduct Authority on May 2 published a series of proposals designed to encourage companies to list in the UK. The new framework would remove many investor protections currently required under the premium listing category.

☆ Slowing growth will crash European stock party
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - European shares have been on the rise for seven months, outshining their U.S. counterparts, and are now just 6% below their record high. Luck played a part in the recent European surge. Natural gas prices have fallen more than 80% since their August peak, boosting economic growth and reducing companies’ costs. Analysts currently expect a 0.4% fall in European companies’ earnings per share (EPS) in 2023, according to Barclays. European investors have had an unusually enjoyable, and profitable, ride.

☆ European drug discounts will ruffle U.S. funder
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LODNON, April 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Europe’s plan to slash prices on pharmaceutical drugs could set off tensions with the U.S. The European Union proposed on Wednesday a legislative overhaul of the sector across the 27-nation bloc. This would incentivise drug makers like AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and GSK (GSK.L) to sell to all European countries at once. And although the U.S. is trying to tackle soaring prices with the Inflation Reduction Act, Europe’s falling drug costs will widen the gap once again. This creates a problem for the U.S. government, which funds more drug development than any other country.

☆ Oil AGMs presage awkward investor decoupling
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chair Helge Lund defended a sudden reversal in February to now cut less oil and gas production by 2030. Big Oil had more than doubled its profits in 2022 as energy prices spiked after Western sanctions on Russian energy. Pension investors like the Universities Superannuation Scheme, for example, are strengthening their climate investment policies and targeting board members to drive change. The traditional oil investor base may soon start to question why companies aren’t doing much more in oil and gas, if that’s what drives profitability and market performance. The oil world’s own awkward decoupling is happening fast.

☆ Digital “Chicago Plan” fixes many financial woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The economists’ solution – often called the Chicago Plan – was to remove commercial banks from the money-creating business. One of the main problems of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is that it would compete with old-fashioned bank deposits. With the digital money supply increasing in line with the economy’s potential growth, roughly as Friedman advised, inflation would soon come under control. Non-bank lenders like Apollo Global Management (APO.N) would have an enhanced role under the digital Chicago Plan. At present, there’s little chance of the digital Chicago Plan coming to pass.

☆ Sanction hit tars BAT’s US listing hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - British American Tobacco (BATS.L) could have trouble getting more American love. The $635 million settlement plus interest may be less of a financial spoil for the $82 billion giant. Still, investors including Rajiv Jain’s GQG Partners, had hoped BAT could move its listing to the United States to close a yawning valuation gap. The reputational stain from its fine, however, raises the risk that if it were to move stateside, U.S. investors may still apply a discount. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ German $13 bln heat pump sale dents EU green hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Pamela Barbaglia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For 106-year-old German heat pump maker Viessmann it looks like an odd move, given its technology is in demand and at the forefront of the energy transition race. Heat pumps may not be the most obvious sector to lead a revival in transatlantic cross-border M&A, down 31% so far this year. The European heat pump market rose by over a third last year, with a record 3 million units sold in 2022 after government support and soaring fossil fuel prices boosted uptake of the technology, according to the European Heat Pump Association. European Union policymakers are betting on heat pumps to reduce CO2 emissions and cut dependence on imported fossil fuels. Germany’s heat pump market grew 53% in 2022, Germany’s heat pump association BWP reported in January.

☆ Carmakers are poised for EV race to the bottom
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

On Thursday, the near 10 billion euro carmaker Renault (RENA.PA) appeared to have finally turned a corner after a painful pandemic. A Tesla-induced price war would be particularly painful for European carmakers like Renault, which is forecast to record an abysmal operating margin of around 6% this year, Refinitiv data show. But if Musk’s plan works and he hoovers up market share, Renault and its peers may have no choice. The party for European EV carmakers could be over just as it started. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

LONDON, April 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Film and TV adaptations of video games have a chequered history. But Nintendo’s “Super Mario”, along with HBO’s “The Last of Us”, is flipping the script. Jefferies analysts estimate that the “Super Mario” movie could add $350 million to Nintendo’s operating profit – equivalent to around 8% of its total for the year ending March 2022. The success of recent adaptations may lead media giants like Walt Disney (DIS.N), Comcast and Netflix to wonder what other goodies lie in video game companies. Follow @olivertaslic on TwitterCONTEXT NEWS“The Super Mario Bros. Movie”, an animated film co-financed by Nintendo and Universal Pictures, was released in North America on April 5.

☆ UK growth hinges on more than a new pension giant
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Politicians and financiers think a consolidation of the country’s pension funds would breathe new life into its stocks, startups and infrastructure. Meanwhile, there is no doubt that UK defined-benefit pension funds, company-sponsored plans that promise a specific payment upon retirement, have moved away from UK equities. The proposals also entail creating a 100 billion pound pension fund, modelled on the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, a retirement giant with $536 billion assets under management. Overall, some 19% of these funds’ assets are in UK stocks, according to the Pensions Policy Institute. If UK assets can yield the risk-adjusted returns offered by other assets, pension funds will join in too.

☆ Worldline seeks to crack tough French payments nut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MILAN, April 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Worldline’s (WLN.PA) boss Gilles Grapinet has spotted an opportunity to access a hard-to-crack payments market. A partnership with Crédit Agricole will allow Worldline to enter Europe’s top market for merchant payments, which several domestic banks still handle directly. Analysts reckon the French bank will confer its entire merchant acquiring business to the new company. For Worldline, the deal may be a stepping-stone to make similar accords with other French lenders or even purchase the whole of Crédit Agricole’s payments business over time. But this deal shows that payments companies still have some scope for dealmaking to improve their fortunes.

☆ Allianz picks acceptable time to quit N26
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Allianz (ALVG.DE) is striking a blow for forlorn investors of privately held startups. While that would be a 68% discount to N26’s $9 billion valuation as of October 2021, Allianz’s exit route looks agreeably straightforward. N26 has enough cash to finance its operations until the end of 2024, when it is expected to reach profitability. The fight between banks for consumer deposits will force N26 to offer better interest rates for its customers, limiting its profit margin going foward. More to the point, Allianz doesn’t have to inform N26 of an intention to sell.

☆ Rome foot-dragging can help EU kick bad aid habits
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is trying to pry out 19 billion euros in EU pandemic aid. Economic conditions have changed a lot since it launched its 800 billion euro pandemic recovery plan in 2020. With 191.5 billion euros requested in grants and loans, it is in line to receive more EU pandemic aid money than any of its peers, and 67 billion euros has already changed hands. EU member states approved public borrowing of about 800 billion euros to fund the aid programme. Total commitments come to only about 508 billion euros, according to a dataset maintained by the Brussels-based Bruegel think tank.

☆ Rivals can feast on Credit Suisse client spoils
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Credit Suisse saw 110 billion Swiss francs flying out the door in the final quarter of 2022. These outflows were chiefly cash from wealthy clients and some deposits at Credit Suisse's Swiss bank unit. Those holding accounts at both Credit Suisse and UBS may dislike too much wealth concentration. And Credit Suisse is hardly incentivised to transfer securities swiftly. The minister said this was needed because Credit Suisse customers had again withdrawn money.

☆ “Angry Birds” may finally have found right nest
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The winning trick of “Angry Birds” is to fire your slingshot at just the right angle to knock out the squadrons of enemy green pigs attempting to steal the birds’ eggs. Japanese gaming company Sega Sammy (6460.T) may have found that position. On Monday, Sega agreed to pay about 700 million euros in cash for Rovio Entertainment (ROVIO.HE), the maker of the “Angry Birds” franchise. The 9.25 offer price is a 63% premium to the closing price of Jan. 19, when rival suitor Playtika (8II.F)made a previous approach. Half the investors have preliminarily accepted the deal, and Rovio shares are near the offer price.

☆ EQT's pet-drug foray could yield tame returns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - EQT (EQTAB.ST) is turning to furry friends to defy the buyout market’s record slowdown. Still, it looks a stretch to secure the sort of 20% returns buyout shops usually seek. EQT’s offer values Dechra at 27 times its EBITDA for the last 12 months. Bullishly assume the group can grow revenue at 10% annually, improve the current 28% EBITDA margin to 30%, and sell after five years at a superior 28 times EBITDA multiple. Even financing a quarter of the deal with debt at 6 times EBITDA, the deal’s internal rate of return would only amount to 17%.

☆ New EU debt rules have way to avoid past mistakes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

BRUSSELS, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The European Union’s new set of fiscal rules need to answer two simple questions: will they help the bloc’s economy grow? The fiscal rules are at the crossroads of the EU’s monetary union and budgetary sovereignty. Past rounds of budget rules have carried the threat of top-level sanctions but the enforcers could not follow through. EU countries need to encourage scale-up financing and allow more cross-border cooperation. New rules need to put the future ahead of philosophy to have a chance to work.

Talent agency Endeavor (EDR.N), which owns the mixed martial arts business, will tag-team with Vince McMahon’s WWE in deal valued at some $21 billion. The merger unveiled on Monday creates a new publicly traded company 51% owned by Endeavor and 49% by WWE shareholders. On paper, the WWE enterprise gets the sweeter valuation, at around 24 times last year’s EBITDA, whereas UFC is pegged at 19 times. Instead, in the grand tradition of wrestling, McMahon and Endeavor boss Ari Emanuel are trying to appeal to shareholders with a more unconventional thriller. Under terms of the deal, WWE is being valued on the basis of $106 per share, implying an enterprise valuation of $9.3 billion, according to the companies.

☆ Paris vote rocks scooter rental firms’ shaky ride
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The business of renting out electric scooters is taking a turn for the worse. Turnout for the vote was low - only 7% of the population registered for it, and they were skewed towards older age groups, who tend not to ride such scooters anyway. The sector was already facing a tougher environment for raising capital and is struggling to turn a profit. The vote is also a potential red light for Lime, which is eyeing a listing. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ ECB’s inflation battle has a 550 bln euro problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Euro zone lenders have so far weathered the financial storms blowing in from the United States and Switzerland. That has allowed the European Central Bank to keep raising rates to combat inflation. Lagarde has said that euro zone banks are well capitalised and have plentiful liquidity. The MRO – the rate lenders pay for one-week loans from the ECB – is currently set at 3.5%, 50 basis points above the benchmark deposit rate. Follow @guerreraf72 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSEuro zone banks have to repay 549 billion euros in emergency loans from the European Central Bank by June 28.

☆ Bank rescue real estate turns from dowry to downer
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Unlike many banks which got into trouble back in 2008, the Swiss lender has flogged much of its prime real estate. In the last financial crisis prime real estate played a big part of bank rescues. When Barclays (BARC.L) bought Lehman Brothers’ U.S. capital markets business in September 2008 the deal included the bankrupt investment bank’s headquarters. Today there is less real estate underpinning bank values. For buyers preparing to rescue embattled banks, real estate has turned from a dowry to a downer.

☆ H&M’s targets may call the peak on cost inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

On Thursday, the $20 billion fast-fashion retailer said its sales rose by 3% year-on-year in the three months that ended in Feb. 28. More importantly, she is now targeting a 10% operating margin in 2024. The retailer’s operating margin halved in 2022 to 3.2% as the price of cotton, freight, staff and energy costs ate up a larger share of its revenue. Delivering a 10% operating margin next year would imply that she expects the worst to be over in terms of commodity-price inflation and a wider economic slowdown. H&M’s share price rose by 15% on Thursday.

That should unlock value for weary shareholders, and please regulators and politicians keen to control strategic businesses. The restructuring will give each of Alibaba’s six businesses, which include its core commerce division, as well as cloud computing, games and logistics units, their own chief executive and board of directors. Investors promptly added nearly $23 billion, or 10%, to the New York-listed company’s market value, now at $250 billion, following Tuesday’s announcement. The $460 billion video-game giant also operates in sensitive areas like online media, cloud computing and mobile payments. Daniel Zhang will continue to serve as chairman and chief executive of Alibaba, which will follow a holding company management model, and concurrently serve as CEO of Cloud Intelligence.

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