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☆ Take Five: The only way is up
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

June 23 (Reuters) - It's been a turbulent week or two for markets, with one central bank after another making it very clear the only way for rates right now is up as inflation tightens its grip on the global economy. Bad news could be taken as a positive, if traders see it as a way of pushing authorities to offer more support to the economy - as long as it eventually arrives. Make your way to the foothills of Portugal's Sintra mountains from Monday through Wednesday. The agenda is, of course, inflation, inflation, inflation. Many expect initial attempts to talk the currency higher - "jawboning", in central bank jargon - before considering whether direct intervention is needed.

Persons: It's, Yoruk, Lewis Krauskopf, Naomi Rovnick, Amanda Cooper, it's, Big Tech's, CHRISTINE, Christine Lagarde, Yannis Stournaras, Jan Harvey Organizations: Investors, Federal, Credit Suisse, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Traders, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Portugal, Rae Wee, Singapore, Amsterdam, New York, London, U.S, Beijing, China, Portugal's Sintra, SWEDEN, Swedish

☆ With more than $1 billion in deals in the works, Wall Street is poised to get back into the home buying game
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street landlords raised $110 billion to buy homes but have had a quiet year. One large transaction, and one large listing, could signal that investors are ready to start buying. The single-family rental market, a popular playground of Wall Street landlords in 2020 and 2021, has been in a deep-freeze for the last year. Rising borrowing costs and a shakier housing market halted most transactions, leaving idle much of the $110 billion raised to buy homes. The company, which was valued at nearly $2 billion last year, says it has facilitated more than $5 billion in deals.

Persons: dealmaking, Goldman Sachs, Don Mullen, DR, Barry Sternlicht's, redemptions, Gary Beasley, Roofstock, Allison Arest, Topping, Beasley, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner, Jay Powell, LeMaistre, everybody's Organizations: Bloomberg, Barry Sternlicht's Starwood Group, Fed Locations: Beach

The 30-year rates have dipped slightly since last week, while 15-year mortgage rates have gone up a bit. A competitive market can keep mortgage rates high and homes expensive. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Prices, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ Morgan Stanley's chief US economist now says home prices are likely to drop only 2% in 2023. Here's why she thinks the housing downturn is virtually over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner says housing activity has bottomed. After a huge drop off in activity, demand is starting to stabilize. Yardeni ResearchThe pickup in activity has likely been due to housing affordability stabilizing. Zentner's view that the housing market is stabilizing is a big contributing factor to her call for a soft-landing scenario, where the US economy avoids a recession. But nevertheless, housing activity has bottomed, and that's probably the most important pillar to a soft-landing."

Persons: Morgan, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Zentner, that's, Goldman Sachs, Jonathan Woloshin, Suisse's Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson, undershoots, David Rosenberg Organizations: National Association of, National Association of Homebuilders, UBS Wealth Management, Rosenberg Locations: Zentner

The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.71%, according to Freddie Mac — this time last year, it was 5.23%. A competitive market can keep mortgage rates high and homes expensive. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Prices, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.79%, according to Freddie Mac — this time last year, it was 5.09%. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. This means that mortgage rates aren't likely to increase significantly any time soon, and they'll likely continue to cool along with prices.

Persons: Freddie Mac, Prices, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ Elon Musk is wrong about a housing-market crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Selma Hepp, the chief economist at CoreLogic, said that's not going to happen. The nation's dearth of housing supply will keep home prices high and prevent a crash. On Monday, the billionaire — who has built a multi-million dollar portfolio of real estate properties — shared one of his most contentious opinions so far in 2023: "Commercial real estate is melting down fast. She said the housing naysayers are wrong and that the housing market is instead heading towards a recovery. Hepp attributes the real estate market's rebound to an imbalance of housing supply and demand that has heightened competition amongst borrowers.

Persons: Elon Musk, Selma Hepp, that's, —, Ray Farris, Ian Shepherdson, Freddie Mac, Hepp, CoreLogic, San Francisco — Organizations: Service, Privacy, SpaceX, Credit Suisse, San Locations: West Coast, Diego, Durham , Connecticut, Boston, New York City, Redfin

Average house prices as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas were forecast to stagnate next year. "Looking ahead, we think there is scope for prices to fall a little further. "Given supply is likely to stay tight, there is a risk house prices may not fall as much as we previously expected." The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, currently around 6.7%, was expected to average 6.2% in 2023. Those high mortgage rates are restricting housing supply, which puts upward pressure on prices, as well as demand.

Persons: Sam Hall, haven't, Sal Guatieri, Indradip Ghosh, Prerana Bhat, Aditi Verma, Maneesh Kumar, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Sharon Singleton Organizations: stagnating, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU

☆ Elon Musk said home prices will crater - and it prompted a sharp rebuttal from the CEO of housing giant Redfin
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Elon Musk said this week that home prices will tumble soon, following those of commercial real estate. Redfin's CEO responded, saying the loss of demand for commercial real estate is driving up demand for residential real estate. However, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman countered his take in a tweet of his own on Tuesday:"But the loss in demand for commercial real estate is what's driving demand for residential real estate. The remote-work boom and waning need for office space has led to many vacant commercial real estate buildings, which Musk's initially referred to. Zillow has said that home prices have already bottomed, while Moody's and Fannie Mae still expect prices to drop further.

Persons: Elon Musk, Glenn Kelman, —, Billionaire Elon Musk, Musk's, Kelman, Zillow, Fannie Mae Organizations: Service, Privacy, Billionaire, Federal

☆ US home prices just jumped for the second-straight month, suggesting the housing downturn could be over. Here are the 6 cities where prices are rising the fastest.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the 20-city version of the index, all 20 of the cities saw home prices rise month-over-month. "That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months." "A shortage of listings, plentiful jobs, and strong wage growth are largely offsetting the headwind to housing from high mortgage rates," Adams told Insider. Their reasons include high mortgage rates, historically low affordability, and a potential recession. Below, we've listed in descending order the six cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index that posted month-over-month growth of at least 2%.

Persons: Craig J, Lazzara, Bill Adams, Adams, Suisse's Ray Farris, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Ian Shepherdson, American Enterprise Institute's Desmond Lachman, Skylar Olsen Organizations: Home, NSA, Redfin, Comerica Bank, American Enterprise Locations: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Minneapolis, West Coast, Miami , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina

High mortgage rates have created a lock-in effect for current homeowners who might otherwise be interested in listing their homes on the market. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices.

Persons: Prices, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ US consumer confidence dips to six-month low, labor market views soften
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 102.3 this month, the lowest level since last November, from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. The cutoff date for the survey, which places more emphasis on the labor market, was May 22. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, fell to 31.0, the lowest since April 2021, from 36.9 in April, suggesting the labor market was loosening up. More timely data like first-time applications for state unemployment benefits suggests the labor market remains tight, but is gradually easing. "Investors should expect Friday's job report to reveal emerging cracks in the labor market."

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Jeffrey Roach, Nicole Bachaud, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Social Security, Medicare, Reuters, University of, Republican U.S . House, Sunday, U.S . Labor Department, LPL, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, North Carolina, U.S, Seattle

☆ US home prices rose in March for the second month in a row
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —US home prices rose slightly in March, showing a continuing recovery, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, released Tuesday. It’s the second month in a row that prices have increased, after an increase in February that snapped a seven-month streak of month-over-month declines. Home prices went up 0.7% in March from the year before, down from 2.1% in the previous month. “The farther west we look, the weaker prices are.”Miami continued to have the largest year-over-year price growth for the eighth consecutive month with a 7.7% increase. Still, “the housing market is likely to remain relatively tense until either home prices or mortgage rates fall enough to bring balance via both buyer and seller activity.”

☆ House prices are declining in these 7 Western states while continuing to hit new heights across the rest of the country
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US house prices rose modestly in the first quarter, said the FHFA on Tuesday. The agency's House Price Index reached just under 400, hitting an all-time high with figures tracking back to 1991. "However, year over year prices in many western states have started to decline for the first time in over ten years." Over the last four quarters, house prices rose in 78 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas, fronted by a 14% rise for the Miami area. The start of the spring selling season showed house price gains in March in a separate S&P CoreLogic report released Tuesday.

Persons: —, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Anju Vajja, Black Knight, San, FHFA Organizations: Service, Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA's Research, Statistics, of Columbia, Pacific, Federal Reserve, Black, Nationwide Locations: . Utah, Nevada, Washington, Idaho , Oregon, Colorado, West Coast, San Francisco, Seattle, Miami, San Mateo, Redwood City , California

☆ Home price declines may be over, S&P Case-Shiller says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Nationally, home prices in March were 0.7% higher than March 2022, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices said Tuesday. "The modest increases in home prices we saw a month ago accelerated in March 2023," said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in a release. Before seasonal adjustment, prices rose in all 20 cities in March (versus in 12 in February), and in all 20 price gains accelerated between February and March. Miami, Tampa, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina, saw the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March. Compared with a year ago, 19 of 20 cities reported lower prices with only Chicago showing an increase at 0.4%.

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow Slides 100 Points as Debt-Ceiling Deal in Focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks were mixed and Treasury yields fell after a tentative deal was struck to raise the U.S. debt ceiling over the long weekend. The next step is for the legislation to be passed by Congress , which could run into procedural hurdles and opposition from lawmakers. Prices declined in some Western markets, such as San Francisco, Seattle and Phoenix. The worst performing sector in the S&P 500 this year led the way lower as fuel prices fell. Natural-gas futures fell 6% to trade at $2.27 per million British thermal units.

Looking ahead, investors this week will be laser-focused on Washington, as Congress prepares to vote on a bill to raise the U.S. debt ceiling . But the shortened trading week ahead still features some key earnings and economic data. ET: S & P/Case Shiller home price index (March) 10 a.m. ET: Employment report: Non-farm payrolls and jobless rate (May) Looking back Last week, three Club holdings reported earnings. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Why does Wall Street expect a rate hike in June?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. Not only that, it finally believes the central bank when it says it likely won’t cut rates this year. Futures traders expected a roughly 66% chance of a quarter point rate hike in June as of Friday afternoon, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s a drastic about-face from even earlier this month, when Wall Street expected the central bank to slash rates multiple times this year starting as early as this summer. “If it comes in hotter than expected, it almost locks a rate hike in” for June, said Heppenstall.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns the S&P 500's 17% surge since October is a bear market rally — and that stocks are ripe for a decline of up to 60%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 17% following a 25% decline as the Fed embarked on its rate-hiking cycle. The median S&P 500 price target for the end of the year is 4,000. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 1.1% over the past year.

☆ Next week promises any debt deal relief may prove short-lived with jobs report, Fed decision looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The overhangs on the market this year [are] the debt ceiling negotiation, hawkish Fed commentary and a banking crisis. It appears we are going to get a debt ceiling deal over the weekend, which should help the market to stabilize." The problem for many on the Street is the action in the S & P 500 Tech Index, up more than 5% this week; the Nasdaq Composite , ahead about 2.5%; and the S & P 500 , with a 0.3% gain, masks so much weakness beneath the surface. The S & P 500 consumer staples, materials, health care and utilities were all down between 2.4% and 3.2% this week, and the Dow Industrials were lower 1%. Although the S & P 500 is 9.5% higher so far in 2023, only a few stocks are doing well. "

☆ Famed economist David Rosenberg says home prices are set to fall further as buyers retreat to the sidelines and a hawkish Fed means stubbornly high mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

With mortgage rates unlikely to budge and incomes unlikely to grow, prices are due to drop. Housing affordability is calculated by accounting for three variables: home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics who said in the 2005 that a housing downturn would spark a recession, made the same argument in recent weeks. Now that's quite striking because mortgage rates are no longer at peak, but applications are still falling. This would send interest rates — and therefore mortgage rates, which trade closely with Treasury rates — higher, further hurting demand and affordability, Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently told Fortune.

Average 30-year mortgage rates increased to 6.39% this week. Stubbornly high mortgage rates have kept many would-be homebuyers out of the market. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

Mortgage rates increased earlier this week and are holding steady today. All this takes the upward pressure off of mortgage rates, which wil likely allow them to finally trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's refinance ratesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

It's possible that those who hold off their home search until early fall may have more luck when it comes to mortgage rates. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowToday's Refinance RatesMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Mortgage rates started the week somewhat elevated, but they've since dropped significantly. This should take the upward pressure off mortgage rates and allow them to drop. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

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