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☆ Markets think falling inflation means rate cuts are around the corner. Here's why that's probably wrong.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in July briefly spiked up to 50% this past week. But the Fed is unlikely to swing from 10 straight rate hikes to cuts within two months, a Truist Advisory economist said. The probability spiked to nearly 50% over the past week after the release of the April inflation report and another sell-off in regional bank stocks like PacWest. That's when policymakers thought they got a handle on high inflation after an initial round of rate hikes. What's likely to jumpstart rate cuts is job losses, which could arrive toward the end of this year, Skordeles said.

☆ Wall Street's official stock market outlook — The latest CNBC Market Strategist Survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Where do the sharpest minds on Wall Street believe the market is headed? The CNBC PRO exclusive Market Strategist Survey is a roundup of year-end targets for the S & P 500 from top Wall Street strategists, updated quarterly, or whenever there is a material change to the forecasts. Here are the current 2023 targets from top strategists. Maximum target: 4,575 — Sam Stovall, CFRA Minimum target: 3,725— Venu Krishna, Barclays Average target: 4,147 Median Target: 4,100

Top of mind: inflation and the impact of a credit tightening Fed officials feel is still evolving in the wake of both higher interest rates and a financial sector rattled by the recent failure of three U.S. banks. "The case of avoiding a recession is in my view more likely than that of having a recession," Powell said. The shift in the Fed's approach was reflected in U.S. interest rate futures, which showed broad expectations for no hikes at either of the central bank's next two policy meetings. U.S. stocks initially held onto gains after the release of the Fed statement, but fell later in the afternoon and closed lower. "With the word 'determining' in place of 'anticipating,' (it) is essentially telling the markets that the Fed is now on pause."

The unanimous decision lifted the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range, the tenth consecutive increase since March 2022. Because of that, Powell said it's too soon to say the rate hike cycle is over. Economic growth remains modest, but "recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," the Fed said. The shift was reflected in U.S. interest rate futures prices, which showed broad expectations for no hikes at either of the Fed's next two meetings. "With the word 'determining' in place of 'anticipating' is essentially telling the markets that the Fed is now on pause."

☆ Instant View: Fed hikes another 25 basis points, hints it may be the last increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

TOM GARRETSON, STRATEGIST, RBC PORTFOLIO ADVISORY GROUP, MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA"It was a pretty dovish rate hike today. The expectations were that it might be a bit more of a hawkish rate hike in terms of leaving the door open to further hikes if needed." "The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. … The market is hoping or expecting the Fed to pause after this rate hike. From a consumer credit perspective, the impact of further rate hikes will likely continue to be felt by borrowers across a range of industries.

☆ Pre-market stocks: Chobani CEO says he won't be captive to profit-margin demands
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Chobani was slated to go public in 2022 but withdrew its filing as market conditions deteriorated. In a discussion with CNN, Ulukaya said the company still has plans to go public when market conditions stabilize. Single-serve Chobani® products, including Chobani® Flip®, Probiotic, Complete, Less Sugar, Chobani® with Zero Sugar and Greek Yogurt are seen on the shelf at a local grocery store on August 12, 2021 in New York City. But we are OK to be in the public market. I think people understand what Chobani is all about and they understand that this is tomorrow’s brand and tomorrow’s company.

There's an old Wall Street adage that urges investors to "sell in May and go away" — but CFRA Research says there's an even smarter way to play the market this spring. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac , the worst six months of the year for the S & P 500 starts in May and runs through October. The strategist says traders can look toward defensive names during the May slump, instead of entirely exiting the market. Indeed, since 1990, while the entire S & P 500 gained 6.7% annually, average price gains from equal exposure to these four sectors returned 9.0%. The stock almanac's editor, Jeff Hirsch, said that reducing long exposure and adopting a defensive stance will pay off for investors during the low period.

Wall Street closed lower on Friday after mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Fed interest rate hike in May, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched the first-quarter reporting season. "Regional bank earnings will come in very slightly positive, while bigger banks will probably post surprisingly positive results." Other major U.S. banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) will report through the week. ET, Dow e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.10%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 3.75 points, or 0.03%. Prometheus Biosciences Inc (RXDX.O) rallied 69.9% after Merck & Co (MRK.N) said it will buy the biotech company for about $10.8 billion.

Wall Street closed lower on Friday after mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Fed rate hike in May, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched the first-quarter reporting season. Other major U.S. banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) will report through the week. "Regional bank earnings will come in very slightly positive, while bigger banks will probably post surprisingly positive results," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. Prometheus Biosciences Inc (RXDX.O) rallied 69.5% on Merck & Co's (MRK.N) plans to buy the biotech company for about $10.8 billion. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 29 new highs and 55 new lows.

☆ Next week's stock market moves hinge on the longer-term outlook for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Next week's market action could be dictated by how well the latest quarterly reports from corporate America are received. Expectations about the immediate earnings outlook have been down for so long, the actual numbers themselves could look like up to investors. Earnings for all financials in the S & P 500 are actually expected to expand in the first quarter by 4.3%. ET: NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: Charles Schwab, M & T Bank, State Street, J.B. Hunt Transport Tuesday 8:30 a.m. ET: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook Earnings: AT & T, American Express, D.R.

☆ Stock futures are down slightly as investors ready for corporate earnings season: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are slightly lower as investors looked to the start of corporate earnings season while considering what the latest inflation data implies about the economy. S&P 500 futures were slightly below the flatline, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 0.1%. The PPI, which is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation, bolstered a trend of easing inflation seen in the March consumer price index report released Wednesday. Consumer prices grew 5% on an annual basis, which was the smallest year-over-year increase in nearly two years. Investors will watch for big-bank earnings Friday, with JPMorgan , Wells Fargo and Citi set to report before the bell.

☆ Wall Street ends mixed with inflation data, earnings on tap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The bellwether S&P 500 ended the session nominally higher. Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, six ended the session higher, led by industrials (.SPLRCI). "When the Fed repeats time after time what their priorities are and what they’re going to do, they’re going to do it." As of Friday, analysts expected aggregate S&P 500 earnings down 5.2% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 1.4% annual growth expected at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv. The S&P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 155 new lows.

Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW.N) gained 3.3% after the financial broker on Thursday disclosed upbeat new client assets inflow in March. Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD.N) jumped 5.7% after a report that Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) held preliminary talks with the company about a possible acquisition of the shale oil producer. Micron Technology Inc (MU.O) and Western Digital Corp (WDC.O) surged 7.9% and 8.9%, respectively, on Samsung Electronics Co Ltd's (005930.KS) plans to cut chip production. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.07-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.16-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 30 new highs and 108 new lows.

The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employment rose by 145,000 jobs last month, compared with economists' projections of an increase of 200,000 jobs, adding to recent signs of a cooling labor market. With growing concerns about a worsening economic outlook following the recent turmoil in the banking sector, market expectations have shifted in favor of the U.S. central bank hitting the brakes on its interest rate hikes. "But at the same time, I think investors are closely watching to make sure that we don't fall into a deep recession." Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May shot up to 62.2%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike fell to 37.8%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. All eyes are now on the non-farm payrolls data for March, a more comprehensive employment report, that is due on Friday for more conclusive clues on the state of the labor market.

The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employment rose by 145,000 jobs last month, compared with economists' projections of an increase of 200,000 jobs, adding to recent signs of a cooling economy. Traders' bets of a pause by the Fed in May shot up to 60.8%, while odds of a 25-basis point interest rate hike fell to 39.2%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Defensive stocks such as healthcare (.SPXHC), utilities (.SPLRCU) and consumer staples (.SPLRCS) were in the green among major S&P 500 sectors. All eyes are now on the non-farm payrolls data for March, a more comprehensive employment report, that is due on Friday for further clues on the state of the labor market. Both the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) are now on track for their first weekly declines in four in the holiday-shortened week.

☆ Wall St ends sharply lower as Powell warns inflation fight continues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The three major U.S. stock indexes, which were mostly directionless prior to the Fed announcement, jumped higher then deflated as investors digested the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent Q&A session. Worries persist that the Fed's aggressive battle against inflation could tip the economy into recession, and recent turmoil in the banking sector, sparked by failures of SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O), have exacerbated those fears. All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 ended the session deep in negative territory, with real estate (.SPLRCR) suffering the steepest percentage drop, its largest one-day plunge since Sept. 13. The S&P 500 posted six new 52-week highs and 13 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 179 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.84 billion shares, compared with the 12.70 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

☆ Fed won't cut rates until the beginning of 2024 at the earliest, says CFRA's Sam Stovall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed won't cut rates until the beginning of 2024 at the earliest, says CFRA's Sam StovallSam Stovall, CFRA Research chief investment strategist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision and what it means for markets.

☆ The stock market is amazingly in the green since the bank crisis broke out. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Despite the banking crisis, the S & P 500 is actually higher than it was the day before Silicon Valley Bank's troubles dragged the banking sector down. Crisis causes Fed to 'grip the wheel' The bank crisis is also seemingly affecting the Federal Reserve 's policy of raising interest rates, experts said. Yet on Wednesday, the Fed announced a 25 percentage point increase , while expressing caution about the banking crisis. "The banking crisis basically caused the Fed to grip the wheel with two hands and take a more cautious approach to its rate tightening policy," Stovall said. "Other areas of the economy, including larger companies who may maintain access to bank credit and public markets (and perhaps consumer relative to commercial borrowers) might then escape with less negative impacts," he said.

☆ A recession could come sooner on cooling bank lending
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In this article US2Y.VIXPACWFRCCSG.N-CH Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTwatch nowStock Chart Icon Stock chart icon stx"Bear market bottoms are usually retested to ensure that the low is truly in. The rising risk of recession is now being exacerbated by the increased likelihood that banks will limit their lending," noted Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at CFRA. Treasury bonds, usually a more staid market, also traded dramatically. The 2-year Treasury yield was at 3.93% in afternoon trading, after it took a wild swing lower to 3.72%, well off its 4.22% close Tuesday. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon 2 y

☆ Silicon Valley Bank is the second-biggest bank crash in U.S. history—here's what it means for your money
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A security guard at Silicon Valley Bank monitors a line of people outside the office on March 13, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. Late last week, Silicon Valley Bank disclosed signs of gross financial mismanagement, sparking panic among the bank's investors and customers. By Friday, the bank, which caters to numerous startups, had halted trading on its plummeting stock, prompting a race among depositors to withdraw their money. SVB and Signature Bank investors? Shares of First Republic Bank, which investors worry will suffer a similar fate, lost 52% on Monday after shedding 33% last week.

ET (1500 GMT), with investors awaiting his comments on the Fed's steps aimed at bringing inflation towards its 2% target. Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. ET, Dow e-minis were up 25 points, or 0.07%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 6.25 points, or 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 32.5 points, or 0.26%. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.N) rose 6.1% after the retailer forecast annual earnings above Wall Street estimates and more than doubled its quarterly dividend. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ 3 of Warren Buffett's biggest investing mistakes—and what every investor can learn from them
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal," Buffett wrote. But in the spirit of humility, let's take a look at three of Buffett's worst decisions, and what investors can learn from them. "What I had assessed as a durable competitive advantage vanished within a few years," Buffett wrote in his 2007 letter to shareholders. Compounding the mistake, Buffett paid $443 million for the company in Berkshire stock rather than cash. "As a financial disaster, this one deserves a spot in the Guinness Book of World Records," Buffett wrote in his 2014 shareholder letter.

☆ Stock market this year may defy March's usual history of positive gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

March is most often a positive month for the stock market, but this year it may bring more of the same turbulence that rattled investors in February. March is the fifth-best month for the S & P 500, according to CFRA data going back to 1945. 'Rockier' than thought "I think it's going to be rockier than people think," said Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. "From our perspective, I think investors should be positioned that inflation is going to be tougher for the Fed to fight than people think," he said. "In the second half of the year, investors are going to come to grips with weakening earnings," said Bernstein.

☆ Wall Street climbs after worst weekly selloff of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"February historically is the second worst month of the year for the stock market. So investors are concluding from a seasonal perspective that maybe stocks could rally at least in the near term." The yield on two-year notes , the most sensitive to short-term rate expectations, slipped after touching a near four-month high earlier in the session. After last week's hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers, investors will turn to Fed Governor Philip Jefferson's speech later in the day. Seagen Inc (SGEN.O) surged 12.2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer (PFE.N) was in early talks to acquire the biotech firm.

☆ Wall Street set for opening gains after sharp weekly losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Futures pointed to a recovery in sentiment on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields slipped after a strong rally. Rate-sensitive growth stocks such as Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) climbed in premarket trading. So investors are concluding from a seasonal perspective that maybe stocks could rally at least in the near term." After last week's hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers, investors will turn to Fed Governor Philip Jefferson's speech later in the day. Seagen Inc (SGEN.O) surged 13.2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer (PFE.N) was in early talks to acquire the biotech firm.

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