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☆ Wall Street will get key insight on the consumer, inflation in the week ahead as recession fears swirl
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-09 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The wildest week of 2024 has investors bracing for more volatility in the week ahead, with key insight on the consumer and inflation coming at a time when recession fears are top of mind. Inflation, labor data Next week's inflation data could get less attention than it has over the past year when the Fed's fight against pricing pressures put inflation reports on center stage. Recently, it's been the labor market getting the most attention. "The market's caring much more about about labor markets and growth, than they do inflation right now," Ladner said. Week ahead calendar All times ET Monday, Aug. 12 2 p.m. Treasury Budget (July) Tuesday, Aug. 13 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (July) Earnings: Home Depot Wednesday, Aug. 14 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (July) 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Scott Ladner, it's, Ladner, —, Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, RJ Assaly, Jeremy Siegel, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Price Organizations: Federal, Walmart, Home, Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Wharton, Fed, UBS, Investments, Treasury Budget, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Co, Housing Locations: U.S, NAHB, Michigan

(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Monday's Wall Street chatter as global markets sell off. — Lisa Kailai Han 7:02 a.m.: How long sell-offs typically last Bad news: The current market sell-off may have further to go. — Lisa Kailai Han 6:09 a.m.: Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus: Best to not 'jump to conclusions' Investors need to have a cool head as global markets sell off, according to Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus. — Fred Imbert 5:51 a.m.: Global markets in an 'aggressive risk-unwind', Vital Knowledge says Fears of a U.S. recession are pressuring global markets, leading investors around the world to sell some of this year's top winners, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. "Markets are caught in an aggressive risk-unwind as equities plunge around the world, with tech getting hit particularly hard," he wrote in a note Monday.

Persons: Wharton's Siegel, Jeremy Siegel, CNBC's, Siegel, hasn't, it's, … They're, —, Lisa Kailai Han, Tom Lee, Lee, Duncan Toms, Toms, Fred Imbert, Victoria Greene, Greene, It's, Nimrit Kang, — Lisa Kailai Han, Dan Ives, Gene Goldman, Gennadiy Goldberg, Ives, Goldman, Goldberg, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Evercore, Ed Hyman, Hyman, Adam Crisafulli, Crisafulli Organizations: CNBC, Stock, Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wharton, Federal Reserve, Fundstrat Global, HSBC, G Squared, Wealth, NorthStar Asset Management, Street, Wedbush, TD Securities, Federal, NASDAQ, U.S, Fed, Global Locations: U.S, Europe, Japan, China

☆ Using a 'bear put spread' to hedge against further market declines
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The S & P 500 5,350 puts I discussed are trading nearly $170 as I write this, up ~ $12,000 per contract. This is even though the S & P 500 is down only 2.3% since I wrote that article over a month ago. One could roll those options down and out to the September 5200/4500 S & P 500 put spread which costs about $100. If you didn't read the earlier article, here are the components of a long put spread, sometimes referred to as a "Bear Put Spread." In periods of high implied volatility, option premiums are generally higher because the market anticipates larger price movements.

Persons: It's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, it's, Trump Organizations: Starbucks, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, ~ $, & $ $

☆ Warren Buffett's decision to sell stocks and raise record cash before sell-off sends wake-up call
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The selling activity picked up significantly last quarter though with Berkshire offloading more than $75 billion in stocks in the period and raising the conglomerate's cash pile to a record $277 billion. Many Buffett followers view the accelerated sale of his top holdings as a pessimistic call on markets and the economy. Buffett was selling stocks last quarter when the S & P 500 rose to an all-time high in anticipation that the U.S. would skirt a recession while squashing inflation. When Buffett trimmed the Apple stake by 13% in the first quarter, he hinted at the Berkshire annual meeting in May that it was for tax reasons. But the magnitude of this selling last quarter suggests it could be more than just a tax-saving strategy.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, James Shanahan, Edward Jones, Barbara Goodstein, You've, Shanahan, Ted Weschler, Todd Combs, Tim Cook's, It's, Warren, Jim Reid, Deutsche Organizations: Apple, Berkshire, America, Oracle, Dow Jones, Nikkei, U.S Locations: Berkshire, Omaha, U.S

☆ As markets crater, key levels to watch on the S&P 500 as it nears correction
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Data released Friday showed 114,000 jobs were created last month, far below a Dow Jones estimate of 185,000. The S & P 500, accounting for Monday's expected losses, will be down around 9% from its recent high. She sees support emerging for the S & P 500 around the 5,000 level, or another 6.5% from here. If market conditions get very dire in the meantime, there is a chance the Federal Reserve could step in, investors hope. "The fed funds rate right now should be somewhere between 3.5% and 4%," he said .

Persons: Dow Jones, Katie Stockton, There's, Stockton, CNBC's, Jeremy Siegel, They've Organizations: Nikkei, Federal, Wharton Locations: Japan, U.S

☆ Stifel strategist who called this summer pullback sees correction getting to at least double digits
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister thinks the S & P 500 will see a steep pullback over the next couple of months. Bannister said Stifel's year-end target of 5,000 for the S & P 500 "seems appropriate right now" given the July jobs data and delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In early June, Bannister said the S & P 500 could drop to approximately 4,750 before the end of the third quarter of this year. The S & P 500 ended last week at 5,346.56. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year.

Persons: Stifel Financial's Barry Bannister, Bannister, Stifel's, Stifel, we've Organizations: CNBC, Traders

☆ An options trade to generate income during this market turbulence
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

I want to embrace this turbulence and use options to create income and potentially get long the broader market at lower levels. Risk happens fast, and investors have recently been conditioned that markets only go up with the impressive rally grinding higher since last November in the S & P 500. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year The highly liquid ETF that tracks the S & P 500, the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , was up nearly 35% (mid-July) from last November. This move forced many bears on Wall Street to capitulate and many malleable analysts to quickly reconfigure their end of year S & P 500 targets substantially higher. The trade With the S & P now down 5% from mid-July recent highs, I look at this acute move lower as a buying opportunity.

Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: Trust, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ Perspective: There's typically one correction every year — and this could be it
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is down about 6% from its all-time high following Friday's losses, making this the second decline of greater than 5% this year. Bank of America also found that, in the last century, the stock market experienced on average one 10% correction a year. So, if the S & P 500 follows the Nasdaq Composite into correction territory, that too would be just normal market activity for any given year. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD History shows that this market behavior doesn't change much in election years. To be sure, this has been a unique cycle in that the stock market rallied during Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Piper, Adam Turnquist, there's, we're, — CNBC's Pia Singh Organizations: Bank of America, Nasdaq, Corrections

☆ Small cap Russell 2000 posts 10% gain in July, trouncing other indexes
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street ended July with a bang that turned a volatile month into a winner. The Russell 2000 soared 10.1% in July, its biggest one-month gain since December. .RUT YTD mountain Russell 2000, year-to-date Bank of America thinks this "pain trade" will continue as a new month of trading kicks off. Among the big analyst calls on Wall Street this morning, Morgan Stanley upgraded GE Vernova to overweight from equal weight. "We believe we are at the early stages of a multi-decade energy transition investment cycle that will require significant capital investment in gas power, renewables, and grid expansion/enhancement.

Persons: Russell, Savita Subramanian, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Percoco Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Bank of America, GE

☆ CFRA raises S&P 500 outlook, sees 11% gain over the next 12 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CFRA Research sees more upside for the benchmark S & P 500 over the next 12 months, even if the risk of near-term profit taking looms. The higher forecast implies a year-end target of 5,770 for the S & P 500, or a 4.5% uptick from Wednesday's close for the benchmark. Stovall's previous year-end S & P 500 target called for 4,940. A combination of more stable supply-and-demand dynamics coupled with a widening of market gains supports the more bullish outlook, CFRA said. The S & P 500 has a roughly 14% gain this year, compared to the Nasdaq Composite's roughly 15% advance.

Persons: Sam Stovall, Evercore's Julian Emanuel, CFRA, Russell Organizations: Research, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq Locations: Wednesday's

☆ Apple and Microsoft are among the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks set to report next week. Here's what that means
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

On Friday, the tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week with losses, down 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively. However, the bulk of Magnificent Seven results is set for release in the week ahead. As it is, all seven of the Magnificent Seven companies closed out the week with losses. FOMC meeting, July jobs report Elsewhere, investors will also be reviewing the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision set for release on Wednesday. Traders will also get insight into the labor market next week, with the release of the July jobs report on Friday.

Persons: Russell, Ryan Grabinski, John Belton, Tesla, Belton, FactSet, Stanley Black, Decker, Lam, Kraft Heinz, Ingersoll Rand Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, 2H, 3Q, Gabelli, Traders, Dallas Fed, Semiconductor, Nation Entertainment, Electronic Arts, Starbucks, Match Group, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Howmet Aerospace, Procter, Gamble, Pfizer, Merck, Co, PayPal, ADP, Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Lam Research, eBay, Qualcomm, Western, Cruise Line Holdings, Hess, Boeing, Mobile, Marriott International, GE Healthcare Technologies, Generac Holdings, Mastercard, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Intel, Holdings, Motorola Solutions, Technology, Air Products, Chemicals, Jobs, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Locations: Chicago, Albemarle, Kellanova, Hershey, Moderna

☆ 4 bullish signals are pointing to more stock gains ahead, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is likely to continue, says BofA technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier. Suttmeier highlighted four positive signals that suggest a healthy bull market in a note on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs the stock market hits a series of record highs in 2024, there are positive signals suggesting the rally can keep going. That money could serve as fuel for a continued stock market rally, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, making the current 5% cash yield less attractive. AdvertisementThe financial conditions index last sparked a major negative divergence towards the end of 2021, when the S&P 500 was rising even as the financial conditions index was declining.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, — Organizations: Service, Bank of America, BAA, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Fed, Chicago Fed

☆ Barclays raises S&P 500 target to 5,600, sees strong tech earnings ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Strategist Venu Krishna raised his 2024 S & P 500 target to 5,600 from 5,300. The S & P 500 has already rallied more than 16% year to date, reaching record levels and blowing past many Wall Street estimates. Investors have piled into tech stocks this year amid expectations that artificial intelligence would bolster corporate profits. The S & P 500 tech sector is up 29% in 2024, with AI-related stocks Nvidia and Super Micro Computer more than doubling. Barclays also set its 2025 S & P 500 target at 6,500.

Persons: Venu Krishna, Krishna Organizations: Barclays, CNBC Pro Market, Survey, Big Tech, Nvidia Locations: Monday's

☆ BTIG says S&P 500 will be stuck in a range, but thinks these stocks can outperform
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 may be due for a pullback, but some individual names could be relative outperformers, according to BTIG. Last week, the S & P 500 dropped nearly 2% in its worst week since April as investors rotated out of megacap tech leaders and into smaller names. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said in a Monday note that those choppy moves could continue from here. If we look at the calendar right now, that makes the most sense to us with a huge week on the macro and micro front next week," Krinsky wrote. "We think a consolidation this week in the 5450-5600 range is likely before the next meaningful move occurs," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Blackstone, AppFolio Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, Garmin, Health, Globus Locations: BTIG

☆ These 2 key metrics will signal whether small, unloved stocks will continue to beat the market, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The firm is looking at specific levels for the 10-year Treasury yield and manufacturing PMI. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. New research from Bank of America outlined two specific criteria that could serve as signals the rally will continue. AdvertisementMeanwhile, manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June. "The Manufacturing economy is in the second longest downturn in history with 21 months without two straight months of 50+ PMI.

Persons: —, SPW, Russell, Tom Lee Organizations: of America, PMI, Service, Bank of America, Treasury, 6.3ppt, Bank of America Global Research, Federal Reserve, Barclays Locations: outperformance

☆ A 'Trump trade' hedge using options
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The reason this matters to investors is the so-called Trump trade. The stock market did very well following former President Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in November 2016, but smaller businesses, in particular, were beneficiaries. When we listen to some of the policy ideas that Trump has discussed, such as measures intended to protect smaller U.S.-based businesses, companies in the small-cap Russell 2000 index stand to benefit. Since the June 27 debate, the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S & P 500 by more than 6 percentage points. So, investors must acknowledge that if Trump's path to victory against Harris or a potential unknown pinch-hitter is less certain, then uncertainty must, by extension, apply to the Trump trade.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump's, Hillary Clinton, Trump, Russell, Harris, — Organizations: Trump, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: IWM

☆ Bank of America strategist says it's time to get bearish
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As stocks pull back from all-time highs, a top Bank of America strategist warned investors to be cautious, citing a series of economic indicators that have historically signaled the end of a rally. "Historically, whenever the unemployment rate has started to rise, it has never gone down again. The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1% in June , tied for the highest level since October 2021. The strategist added that such conditions typically lead to higher risk premiums and lower asset prices, especially given the current elevated market levels. The Bank of America strategist also expressed concern about consumer confidence, which he described as "collapsing."

Persons: Sebastian Raedler, Raedler, Hani Redha, Redha, Peter Lynch Organizations: Bank of America, . Treasury, University of Michigan, Pine, Investments Locations: U.S

☆ Markets broaden as investors sell tech winners, but further turbulence may be on the way
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The four best-performing stocks in the S & P 500 year to date were down an average of 13.5% last week. .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500's performance in the past five trading days. The anchoring effect of a persistently strong half-dozen $1-trillion to $3-trillion companies atop the S & P 500 while most stocks wallowed had the effect of suppressing index volatility. The S & P 500 is now about 3% off its record, and the Nasdaq 100 is in a roughly 5% retreat from its high. History says when the S & P 500 has been up more than 10% in the first half of a year , as in 2024, it has gone to further highs by year's end nearly every time.

Persons: Russell, Donald Trump, Cash, Parag Thatte, Thatte, Goldman Sachs, wallowed, Cantor Fitzgerald Organizations: Axonic Capital, Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq

☆ Goldman Sachs gets cautious on stocks, sees risk of a late summer correction
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs is warning clients of a summer correction in the stock market as economic growth slows down and political risks rise. The S & P 500 is up about 16% year to date, just 2% off its record high. Goldman said it sees increasing risk of a correction. Typically, a correction is defined as a 10% drawdown from a recent high in the S & P 500 and a bear market equals to a 20% pullback. The S & P 500 is currently off 2% from its recent high.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Christian Mueller, Goldman, Goldman doesn't, pare Organizations: Dow

☆ A pause to the 'Trump trade': The stock market impact if Joe Biden drops out of election
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Should Biden leave the race, we would not immediately change our electoral odds (60% Trump vs. 40% Biden/Dem). However, we would note that the policies of a potential Harris administration would largely align with those of President Biden," Mills said. "The primary market moves on election night will come through the equity side as a result of significant regulatory policy divergences. Under a Biden win, it will be status quo in markets. With a Trump win, [stocks] will get some serious legs," Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos said in a Friday note to clients.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Raymond James Washington, Ed Mills, Stocks, Trump, Harris, Mills, MAGA, TD Cowen, Chris Krueger, David Zervos Organizations: NBC, Trump, Biden, Federal, Democratic, Traders, Republican, Democratic Party, GOP, Senate, Jefferies

☆ This strategist is finding value outside of the U.S. — here's where
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors looking for stock investments on the cheap should look abroad, according to Schroders investment strategist Bob Armstrong. Europe's Stoxx 600 index and the Japanese Nikkei 225 hit record highs earlier this year, along with the S & P 500 . FactSet data shows the former trades at 15 times trailing 12-month earnings, while the latter has a multiple of 23. The S & P 500, meanwhile sports a 27 times earnings multiple. Year to date, the Nikkei is up nearly 20%, outpacing the S & P 500's 17% jump.

Persons: Bob Armstrong, Europe's, Armstrong, Armstrong didn't Organizations: Nikkei, CNBC, Tokyo, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF Locations: U.S, Europe, Armstrong, Russia, Ukraine, Japan

☆ S&P 500 has upside to 6,150 as summer rally 'is getting healthier,' says Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The broadening market rally has Bank of America forecasting further upside for the S & P 500 . Strategist Stephen Suttmeier estimates the broad market index will reach 6,150, which is 8.5% higher than Tuesday's close. Suttmeier said the S & P 500's broadening market rally participation supports more upside potential to the 6,150 level. In addition, the strategist said the number of S & P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages has improved to indicate stabilizing market breadth. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2024 Suttmeier believes the iShares Russell 2000 ETF , which tracks the benchmark small-cap index, can break out to as high as 260.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Russell, Suttmeier, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, NYSE, Dow Jones

☆ Small-cap ETF poised to break out to all-time high and perhaps beyond, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As is clear, that objective is considerably higher than the 2021 peak, which was the last time IWM made a new all-time high. The obvious question then would be this: If IWM does, in fact, make a new all-time high, what happens next? First, notice how well the IWM/SPX relative line performed as it rallied from a key low to a peak since 2011. Conversely, during the three times that IWM has broken out to new highs in absolute terms, the IWM/SPX relative line has declined soon thereafter. In fact, the relative line has been diverging from IWM for 13 years and hasn't made a higher high since 2011.

Persons: Russell, IWM, shouldn't, What's, hasn't, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: IWM

☆ Goldman's top stock strategist explains why small caps are rallying so much
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 jumped 2% on Tuesday, heading for its fifth straight winning day. Small-cap companies are especially sensitive to rate policy, as their financing costs rise when interest rates are high. Falling rates could be a boon for these names, said Kostin, Goldman's chief equity strategist, on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." In that period, the Russell 2000 Index has added more than 11%, compared with the S & P 500 's 4% advance. In 2024, the S & P 500 has surged more than 18%, while the Russell 2000 has added 10%.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Jerome Powell, Russell Organizations: Russell, Federal

☆ Defense stocks historically benefited from Republican control. Analysts warn this may not be the case under Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Defense has historically outperformed when there's been a single party in control across Congress and the executive branch — in particular, the Republican Party, according to Wells Fargo analyst Matthew Akers. However, Akers believes the defense sector may not benefit if there's a Republican sweep this election cycle. Another two years of low growth for both defense and non-defense looks likely to us," Akers wrote in a Tuesday note. The firm said a Trump presidency is positive for the defense sector. The firm cited the Republican Party's platform, which highlights a "strong military," restoring peace and "made in America" defense systems.

Persons: there's, Wells, Matthew Akers, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Akers, Trump, TD Cowen Organizations: GOP, Defense, Republican Party, Democrat, Republican, NATO, Ukraine, Caucus, China, Boeing, " Aircraft, Akers, U.S . Aerospace & Defense ETF, ITA Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S, China, America

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