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☆ S&P 500, Dow fall, dragged by Home Depot outlook, US retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Home Depot (HD.N) shed 1.73%, the biggest drag on the Dow Industrials and among the heaviest weights on the S&P 500 after the home improvement retailer cut its annual sales forecast and projected a steeper-than-expected decline in profit. The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, short of the estimate for an increase of 0.8%. That slowing along with recent negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling has focused attention on when the central bank will pause hiking, or cut interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she does not think the central bank can hold interest rates steady yet. The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 42 new highs and 163 new lows.

☆ Dow, S&P edge up as data, debt ceiling curb gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 47.98 points, or 0.14%, to 33,348.6, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.2 points, or 0.30%, to 4,136.28 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 80.47 points, or 0.66%, to 12,365.21. Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) climbed 2.16% as one of the top boosts to both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 after Loop Capital upgraded it to "buy" from "hold." Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidIn a relatively light week for economic data, investors will focus on retail sales, weekly jobless claims and housing data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 136 new lows.

Barkin said he remained open-minded on whether the Fed at its June 13-14 policy meeting should raise the benchmark policy rate for an 11th straight time or leave it at the current range between 5.00% and 5.25%. I do wonder whether we're not going to need more impact on demand to bring inflation down to where we need to go," Barkin said, laying out a potential case for further rate increases. Barkin said he is comfortable overall with the Fed's move earlier this month to a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach after having raised the policy rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022 in an effort to lower the highest inflation in 40 years. "I'm still seeing data that suggests a hot job market and enduring inflation," he said. "I continue to believe that inflation will last longer than perhaps market measures of inflation compensation would suggest.

But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling jitters, Turkey vote, Soros ditches Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

President Joe Biden is meeting Congressional leaders on Tuesday to try to hash out a compromise to raise the debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. A regulatory filing on Friday from the family office of George Soros showed the 92-year old billionaire investor has sold his entire stake in Tesla. Soros bought shares in the electric vehicle maker, run by Elon Musk, in 2022, as well as convertible bonds in 2018. Soros wasn't alone in pulling out of some of the pandemic-era darlings in the first three months of the year. Friday's regulatory filing showed he loaded up on other big tech stocks, including Netflix, Uber, chipmaker Qualcomm and cloud-based data company Snowflake - which fellow 92-year old investor Warren Buffett bought into back in 2020.

☆ Dollar, yen boosted as US banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 after a 0.5% increase overnight. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.13% to 133.53 per dollar, after gaining about 0.4% on Tuesday. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% in April as the worries eased. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down to -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar slid to a six-week low of $0.6604 before settling down 0.3% at $0.6605 after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

☆ Dollar, yen buoyed as US banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 following a 0.5% increase overnight. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% for the month of April. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, data overnight showed, heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down at -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar was swinging between losses and gains after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

☆ Dollar, yen buoyed as U.S. banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar and the yen, both safe haven assets, were mostly steady after spiking higher overnight as renewed concerns over the U.S. banking sector and economy dented risk sentiment. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 following a 0.5% increase overnight. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% for the month of April. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, data overnight showed, heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. The Australian dollar was swinging between losses and gains after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

☆ U.S. dollar gains as risk appetite wanes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar index climbed 0.48% to 101.84, having dropped more than 4% since March 8. A weak consumer confidence report and a decline in Federal Reserve manufacturing data further added to the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Data showed U.S. consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low in April, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 — the lowest since July 2022 - from a revised 104.0 in March. The yen fell 0.39% to 133.70 per dollar.

☆ What to watch for in the markets in the week ahead: Monster tech earnings, then sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

More than one third (35%) of the S & P 500 reports earnings next week — including megacaps Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Amazon — versus less than 12% in the week just ended and only 2% last week. So far this quarter, S & P 500 earnings are running 4.7% below the same period a year ago, Refinitiv data shows. Back then, the S & P 500 fell 19.4% from its April high to a low on October 3. Meanwhile, next week is the last full trading week before Wall Street's old adage to "sell in May and go away" takes hold. ET: FHFA Home Price index (February); S & P Case-Shiller home price indexes (February) 10:00 a.m.

☆ Accessing credit has become harder, Fed’s Beige Book shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The report captures the effects of last month’s banking turbulence on businesses and banks themselves. “Lending volumes and loan demand generally declined across consumer and business loan types,” the Fed said in its periodic compilation of business survey responses, known as the Beige Book. A tightening in credit conditions was perhaps the biggest change reflected in the latest Beige Book report. While those concerns have largely subsided, many economists feared it would make it harder to access credit. Other banks in the Richmond Fed’s district reported higher inflows of deposits following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the report said.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks calm the horses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. banking giants calm the horses, global investors are now concentrated on world growth and earnings signals more than interest rate rises for direction - with an assumption the latter are near an end anyway. Somewhat relieved analysts marginally brightened their dim outlook for first-quarter U.S. results compared with a week ago. Futures markets now see a more than 80% chance the Fed will execute one final quarter point rate rise next month - reversing it by September. That rate rise would bring the real Fed policy rate - adjusted by headline consumer price inflation - into positive territory for the first time in three years. The dollar extended Friday's rebound as the May rate rise pricing hardened.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Fed minutes reignite recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets rose after the CPI was released — why wouldn't they? Then minutes from the FOMC's meeting came out and changed investors' day. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Gold ticks up as US inflation data fuels bets for rate-hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold advances for third consecutive sessionMarkets pricing in 25-bp rate hike in MayApril 13 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher for a third consecutive session on Thursday, as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data spurred bets that the Federal Reserve might raise rates once more next month before pausing hikes. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,016.99 per ounce, as of 0332 GMT. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% last month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase, after advancing 0.4% in February. Gold is considered an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Recession concerns are "allowing gold prices to ride on its safe-haven status... while technical conditions are revealing some moderation in upward momentum on recent highs," IG's Yeap added.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Recession fears resurface
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Gold ticks up as U.S. inflation data fuels bets for rate hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices inched higher for a third consecutive session on Thursday, as milder-than-expected U.S. inflation data prompted bets that the Federal Reserve might raise rates just once more before pausing. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,031.40. Gold prices rose over 1% on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% last month, compared with expectations of a 0.2% increase, after advancing 0.4% in February. Recession concerns are "allowing gold prices to ride on its safe-haven status ... while technical conditions are revealing some moderation in upward momentum on recent highs," IG's Yeap said. Spot silver fell 0.3% to $25.39 per ounce, platinum lost 0.3% to $1,011.86 and palladium dipped 0.5% to $1,452.08.

☆ Dollar, stocks slip after Fed minutes spur recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Fed staff assessing the potential fallout of banking stress projected a "mild recession" later this year. But the minutes showed policymakers ultimately agreed to higher interest rates as data at the time showed few signs of inflation pressures abating. Money markets initially trimmed expectations for a Fed rate hike in May, pricing in a 65.2% chance of a 25-basis-point move, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) closed down 0.08%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.13%. The dollar fell with an index measuring the U.S. currency against six peers down 0.558%.

☆ Dollar drops as inflation cools more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the 12 months through March, the CPI increased 5.0%, the smallest year-on-year gain since May 2021. Economists at Goldman Sachs said after the data that they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates in June. The dollar index fell 0.60% on the day to 101.49 and is down from around 102.11 before the data. The dollar dipped to 133.13 Japanese yen , down 0.47% on the day, from around 133.85 before the data. Retail sales data on Friday will be analyzed next for how consumer spending is being affected by higher prices.

However, the major benchmarks shed gains quickly, briefly turning lower, as investors focused on underlying inflation pressures which rose in line with economists' estimates. US inflation, Fed rates and MarketsRichmond Fed President Thomas Barkin also poured cold water on market optimism after flagging that there was still time before inflation falls back to the Fed's 2% goal. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said there was "more work to do" on Fed rate hikes. Among the 11 major S&P sectors, consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) was the worst hit, while materials (.SPLRC) and healthcare (.SPXHC) were the top gainers. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he's still waiting for inflation "to crack"
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

April 12 (Reuters) - Inflation may be falling but it is yet to do so at a rate commensurate with inflation falling back to the Fed's 2% goal, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday. "I'm waiting for inflation to crack...It's moving in the right direction...but in the absence of a month or two months or three months with inflation at our target it's hard to make the case that we're compellingly headed there," Barkin said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing byOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

☆ There's still more to do to get core inflation where we'd like it to be, says Richmond Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's still more to do to get core inflation where we'd like it to be, says Richmond Fed presidentTom Barkin, Richmond Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Barkin's reaction to Wednesday's CPI data, what Barkin is watching before the May meeting and more.

There are uncertainties," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Friday. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin struck a similar note last week. "When you raise rates there's always the risk of the economy softening faster than it might have otherwise. "People will continue to spend as long as they get paid," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist with BNP Paribas. It will, but only at the point at which they stop getting paid" because of a slowing economy and rising unemployment.

☆ Morning Bid: World markets leaving March like a lamb
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanIn like a lion, out like a lamb. Farmers' almanacs suggest a stormy and turbulent start to March means it's likely to end calm and serene - and so it appears with world financial markets this year. The evidence is sketchy so far and the impact on lending and credit generally will be examined forensically from here. That U-turn in thinking during the month saw wild swings in the bond and rates markets, where key volatility gauges (.MOVE) hit their highest since the 2008 crash. (.CESIUSD)Elsewhere, European markets continued to advance on Thursday, with banking stocks (.SX7P) up another 2% and credit default swaps on many banks lower too.

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors come off winning day: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 27, 2023 in New York City. Stock futures were little changed Wednesday night. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures were also near their flatlines. Regional banks, closely followed since Silicon Valley Bank's collapse earlier this month, also finished the session higher, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) adding around 1%. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are all slated to speak in the afternoon.

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