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MUMBAI, June 7 (Reuters) - About three-fourths of Indians are choosing to deposit the recently withdrawn 2000-rupee notes into bank accounts so far rather than exchanging them for smaller denominations, with the trend likely to boost bank deposits, bankers said. In May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it would withdraw these high-value notes from circulation and permitted their exchange or deposit until Sept. 30. When announced, the value of these notes in circulation was 3.6 trillion rupees ($43.61 billion), the RBI said. Though the total quantum of notes deposited or exchanged so far is not available, six public and private sector bankers Reuters spoke to said over 80% of the notes received by them have been deposited into accounts. The initial assumption is the overall bank deposit base would increase by at least 1.5 trillion rupees, with SBI contributing 22%-25%, the SBI official said.
Persons: Virat Diwanji, Gaura Sen Gupta, Dipanwita Mazumdar, Siddhi Nayak, Swati Bhat, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India, Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IDFC FIRST Bank, SBI, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, BOB.NS, India
Indian shares open higher ahead of RBI rate decision
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
BENGALURU, June 7 (Reuters) - Indian shares opened higher on Wednesday, tracking global peers, ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision and on hopes of an interest rate pause by other major central banks. The blue-chip Nifty 50 (.NSEI) index was up 0.36% at 18,665.60 as of 9:15 a.m. IST, while the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex (.BSESN) rose 0.20% to 62,917.39. ($1 = 82.5316 Indian Rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Bharath Rajeswaran, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Reserve Bank, BSE, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Bengaluru
The Bank of Canada's decision to raise rates to a 22-year high of 4.75% was not widely expected. This followed an equally surprising rate hike from Australia the day before, a one-two hawkish punch from policymakers that investors had probably not braced for. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% and for the rest of 2023, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The Australian dollar, which hit a one-month high on Wednesday following the RBA's rate hike, could get a nudge from Australian trade data on Thursday. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- India interest rate decision- Japan GDP (Q1, revised)- Australia trade (April)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jamie McGeever Organizations: Nasdaq, Mega Tech, Reserve Bank of, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: India, Canada, Australia, Reserve Bank of India, Japan
Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 5 (Reuters) - Home prices in India are set to hold above consumer inflation, even though interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer than previously thought, a Reuters poll of property analysts found. The May 16-June 1 poll of 12 property analysts predicted national home prices would reach a median 6.0% this year, a modest upgrade from the 5.5% expected in a March survey. "The interest rate cycle is near its end," Arvind Nandan, managing director of research at Savills India, said. Rates are set to stay at 6.50% for the rest of 2023 and start falling early next year. All analysts who answered an additional question said they were bullish about the housing market outlook.
Persons: Arvind Nandan, Anuj Puri, Rohan Sharma, Vivek Mishra, Veronica Khongwir, Madhumita Gokhale, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Reserve Bank of, JLL Research, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India, Reserve Bank of India
Regional and global markets on Friday chalked up solid gains and volatility measures slumped after the release of forecast-smashing U.S. jobs figures. It looks like the 'sell in May and go away' maxim won't apply this year - investors are bullish and they are buying. Looking ahead, investors in Asia have plenty of economic events and monetary policy decisions to get their teeth into this week. Inflation data from Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and China will be released, starting with Indonesia on Monday. Economists polled by Reuters expect annual CPI inflation eased in May to a one-year low of 4.22% from 4.33% in April.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: Nikkei, Manufacturing, U.S . State Department, Indonesia, Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of, Indonesia CPI, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan, China, India, Australia, Korea's, Beijing, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Reserve Bank of India, Singapore
India's forex reserves fall for second straight week
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
MUMBAI, June 2 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) fell for a second consecutive week and stood at a one-month low of $589.14 billion as of May 26, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data showed on Friday. Reserves had fallen by $6.05 billion in the week ended May 19, the biggest fall in more than three months. Foreign exchange reserves include India's Reserve Tranche position in the International Monetary Fund. The rupee rose 0.1% in the week ended May 26, having traded in a range of 82.5575 to 82.8500. The rupee ended at 82.3050 on Friday to record its best week in five.
Persons: Siddhi Nayak, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, International Monetary Fund, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI
The government expects growth could remain around 6.5% in the current fiscal year, despite risks emerging from a global slowdown. Asia's third-largest economy expanded faster than the forecast of 5.0% by economists in a Reuters poll in the last quarter of the 2022/23 fiscal year through March, up from a revised 4.5% in the previous quarter. She added growth numbers, however, reflected optimism for the Indian economy despite global headwinds. Reuters GraphicsFederal government spending, constituting about 10% of GDP, rose 2.3% year-on-year in the latest quarter, compared with a revised 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter. Currently, 45% of India's workforce is employed in the farm sector, which contributes just 15% to the economy.
Persons: Anantha Nageswaran, Sakshi Gupta, Narendra Modi, Economists, Sarita Chaganti Singh, Shivangi Acharya, Nishit Navin, Emelia Sithole, David Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Federal, Monitoring, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India, HDFC, Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru
India's economy likely gained pace in March quarter
  + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW DELHI, May 31 (Reuters) - India is set to release data on Wednesday that is expected to show the economy grew by 5% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 4.4% in the previous quarter due to steady urban demand and government spending. Some private economists reckoned growth in the year to March 31 could turn out around 6.8%. During the March quarter, high frequency indicators showed that a rise in urban incomes had boosted sales of expensive cars, Apple mobile phones, and air travel. The performance looks less impressive considering that the economy was still working through the tail-end of the pandemic during the previous year. Modi must call for a national election by early 2024, and there a several more state polls due before then.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Modi, Manoj Kumar, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters, Apple, Bharatiya Janata Party, Monitoring, Thomson Locations: DELHI, India, Karnataka, Mumbai
MUMBAI, May 29 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India has come across instances of some banks trying to conceal the real status of their stressed assets while governance gaps have also been noticed at certain lenders, its governor said on Monday. Das also said that despite the guidelines on corporate governance, it was a matter of concern that the RBI has come across gaps in governance at certain banks, which have the potential to cause some volatility in the sector. "While these gaps have been mitigated, it is necessary that boards and the managements do not allow such gaps to creep in," he said. A robust governance structure is the most important requirement to ensure the stability of a bank and sustainable financial performance, Das added. "RBI has engaged with certain banks on the need to make suitable adjustments in their business strategies where it was observed that over-aggressive growth in certain business segments were creating avoidable vulnerabilities," Das said.
MUMBAI, May 22 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open weaker against the U.S. dollar after the central bank said it will withdraw the highest value currency note from circulation. Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 82.80-82.84 to the dollar, compared to 82.66 in the previous session. On Friday, the Reserve Bank of India said it will withdraw its highest denomination 2,000-rupee note from circulation. "Rupee would come under pressure" alongside the fall in the cost of carry (the forward premiums), Goenka said. "Conducting sell/buy swaps (on USD/INR) would address cash dollar shortage and suck out rupee liquidity and could offer respite."
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe expect the Indian rupee to 'top out' in the short term, says BarclaysAshish Agrawal of the bank says the Reserve Bank of India has turned from buying to selling dollars.
MUMBAI, May 22(Reuters) - The Indian central bank's decision to withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation is likely to improve banking system liquidity, bringing down recently elevated short term rates, analysts and bankers said. Kotak Institutional Equities estimates that liquidity could improve by around 1 trillion rupees, depending on the behaviour of depositors, while QuantEco Research pegs the potential liquidity impact at 400 billion rupees to 1.1 trillion rupees. ICICI Securities Primary Dealership estimates the liquidity surplus could increase to 1.5-2 trillion rupees. India's banking system liquidity surplus has averaged above 600 billion rupees in May. About 2.5-3 trillion rupees of banking sector liquidity leaks out as currency in circulation each year, wrote Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.
MUMBAI, May 20 (Reuters) - India will withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation, the central bank said on Friday. WHY DID THE GOVERNMENT WITHDRAW 2000-RUPEE NOTES? When 2000-rupee notes were introduced in 2016 they were intended to replenish the Indian economy's currency in circulation quickly after demonetisation. However, the central bank has frequently said that it wants to reduce high value notes in circulation and had stopped printing 2000-rupee notes over the past four years. The value of 2000-rupee notes in circulation is 3.62 trillion Indian rupees ($44.27 billion).
India to withdraw 2,000-rupee notes from circulation
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
MUMBAI, May 19 (Reuters) - India will start withdrawing 2,000-rupee ($24.5) notes from circulation, its central bank said on Friday, adding that evidence showed the denomination was not being commonly used for transactions. The 2,000 rupee note was introduced in 2016 after the Narendra Modi-led government abruptly withdrew 500 and 1000 rupee notes to clamp down on forgeries. The government began issuing new 500 rupee notes days later, and added the 2,000 to replenish currency in circulation at a faster pace. However, since then, the central bank has focused on printing notes of 500 rupees and below and has printed no new 2,000-rupee notes in the last four years. "Withdrawal of a currency note is demonetisation and this is a sensible form of demonetisation," said Pronab Sen, economist and former chief statistician of India.
Changes in forex reserves also stem from valuation gains or losses. For the week to which the forex reserves data pertains, the rupee fell by 0.4%, dragged down by a broader strength in the dollar index. The local unit had traded in a range of 81.6900 to 82.2250. The rupee fell further by 0.6% this week, its worst fall in two months. The local unit ended at 82.66 against the dollar on Friday.
“Quantitative tightening,” or QT, by top central banks will suck $2 trillion in liquidity out of the financial system over the next two years, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings. Investors and banks calibrate their strategies to the amount of money in the financial system, he noted. Then, central banks started withdrawing liquidity from the financial system. Even worse, many banks have large holes on their balance sheets because central banks have simultaneously jacked up interest rates. While government debt levels have skyrocketed in recent years, the cost of servicing that debt has been tamped down by the willingness of central banks to buy large chunks of it.
MUMBAI, May 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee hit a more-than-six-week low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, in line with the decline in other Asian currencies that tracked the fall in the Chinese yuan after weak economic data. The rupee hit 82.4425 against the U.S. dollar, its lowest since April 3, during the session, before recovering to close up 0.21% at 82.38. The weak economic print from China has weighed on Asian currencies, said Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities. Parmar doesn't expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene at the current levels as other Asian currencies have started depreciating and the dollar index is strengthening. Domestic economic data points like easing inflation and improved external currencies have mostly come in support of the local currency.
The RBI's repo rate is at 6.50%. Banks met officials from the Fixed Income Money Market and Derivatives Association of India (FIMMDA) last week to raise the issue of persistently high overnight rates. FIMMDA and RBI officials did not respond to Reuters' emails seeking comment. Even as overnight rates stay elevated, treasury officials are not anticipating any infusion from the RBI as they expect liquidity conditions to improve in due course. That dividend transfer, according to traders, could top 1 trillion rupees ($12.23 billion), sharply above the budgeted 480 billion rupees.
MUMBAI, May 15 (Reuters) - The bullish outlook on the Indian rupee that several foreign banks have is facing a tough test from the Reserve Bank of India's persistent intervention to shore up reserves. Barclays projected the rupee to hit 80 per dollar by next March, while BofA Securities expected a move to 79.5 by then. The rupee currently is down slightly from its March 31 level, at 82.34 to the dollar. There is little doubt that the RBI will persist with its two-way intervention strategy to keep a check on the rupee volatility, chief dealer at another public sector bank said. "Broadly, I agree with what the public sector banks are saying, that RBI reckons the need to continue intervention and build reserves," said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.
However, a 90% likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern developing during the June-September monsoon season raises the possibility of less than normal rain. WHAT IS EL NINO? As a result, the Indian monsoon tends to be weaker and less reliable during El Nino years. HOW CLOSE IS THE CORRELATION BETWEEN EL NINO AND MONSOON RAIN? The correlation between El Nino and Indian monsoon rainfall is significant, despite occasional instances when India gets normal or above-normal rain during El Nino years.
India's WPI falls for first time in 3 years in April
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
SummarySummary Companies April WPI falls 0.92% on year vs 1.34% rise in MarchApril food WPI up 0.17% vs 2.32% in MarchWPI easing for the last 11 monthsNEW DELHI, May 15 (Reuters) - India's annual wholesale price index (WPI) fell for the first time in nearly three years in April, as prices softened across the board. WPI (INWPI=ECI) fell by 0.92% from the same month a year earlier, having risen 1.34% in March. "High base effect and falling commodity prices will lend downward pressure on WPI inflation this year," said Madan Sabnavis, an economist at Bank of Baroda. WPI has been easing for the last 11 months from the 20-year highs of 16.63% recorded in May 2022. Data released on Friday showed India's annual retail inflation eased to an 18-month low in April, staying well below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month.
Predictions ranged from 4.40% to 5.80%, with respondents expecting inflation to remain below the RBI's 6.00% upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month. "Food inflation was a mixed bag on the month, with cereals and vegetables easing, whilst pulses and milk rose. "With inflation off the boil besides core (inflation), the RBI is likely to remain on an extended pause." However, inflation was expected to remain well above the RBI's medium-term target of 4.0% in the coming quarters, according to a separate poll. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), which measures the change in producer prices, is likely to have fallen to -0.20% last month compared to a year ago.
MUMBAI, May 9 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves are at a comfortable level currently, benefiting from the Reserve Bank of India's persistent intervention and the likelihood of less volatile revaluation changes, economists said. Reuters GraphicsSince October 2022, the RBI has been rebuilding the reserves, taking advantage of the rupee's recovery. Reuters GraphicsSince October, "comfort on the level of reserves has improved significantly," said Gaura Sen Gupta, economist at IDFC First Bank. "Reserves (both spot and forwards) are now equivalent to 10.4 months of import cover, compared with about 8.9% in Oct 2022." And provides an added layer of comfort as far as the adequacy of forex reserves is concerned.
India's HDFC beats Q4 profit estimates on home loan demand
  + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
HDFC said profit after tax rose to 44.26 billion rupees ($541.09 million) for the three months ended March 31, from 37 billion rupees a year earlier. Analysts, on average, had expected profit after tax of 38.86 billion rupees, according to Refinitiv IBES data. The lender said it provided individual loans worth 93.40 billion rupees during the quarter, compared with 83.67 billion rupees a year earlier. HDFC is on track to merge with India's largest private lender HDFC Bank Ltd (HDBK.NS). The RBI in April allowed HDFC and HDFC Bank selective regulatory relief in order to smooth out the merger between the two entities.
India started exploring a rupee settlement mechanism with Russia soon the invasion of Ukraine in February last year, but there has been no reported deal done in rupees. "We don't want to push rupee settlement any more, that mechanism is just not working. Another official said both countries have started looking for alternatives after the rupee settlement mechanism did not work out but did not give details. Reuters GraphicsTRADE ON TRACKThe sources said trade with Russia has been continuing despite sanctions and payment issues. So payments are being made to a third country which route it or offset it for their trade with Russia," the other official said.
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