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So-called dividend aristocrats are typically defined as companies that have raised their per-share payout every year for at least 25 years. Wolfe strategist Chris Senyek said in a note to clients Wednesday that some of those aristocrats also score highly on another quality indicator — net stock buybacks. "We've found Consistent Buybacks (companies with a net share count decline for at least 10 consecutive years) and Dividend Aristocrats (25 years of consistent dividend growth) to be the top performing cash usage themes over the past 20+ years. And of the 22 analysts who cover the stock, 12 have hold ratings and one has a sell, according to Refinitiv. The Invesco BuyBack Achievers ETF (PKW) , which buys companies that have reduced their share count by more than 5% over the past year, is up about 9.8% year to date.
Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek, We've, Senyek, Lowe's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Colgate, Palmolive, Companies Locations: U.S
Local resident Lubov, 71, carries goods received during a food aid distribution in the village of Lymany, Mykolaiv region, on Jan. 28, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. WASHINGTON — America's top spy agency says Russia's war in Ukraine has disrupted global food security and triggered not only higher prices but also political instability in some of the world's most vulnerable countries. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the nation's 18 intelligence agencies, warned that countries located in sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria and Yemen are particularly susceptible to political instability as a result of food insecurity. "The combination of high domestic food prices and historic levels of sovereign debt in many countries, largely caused by spending and recessionary effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, has weakened countries' capacity to respond to heightened food insecurity risks," ODNI wrote in the assessment. The Kremlin has previously denied that its troops in Ukraine targeted civilian infrastructure and engaged in looting.
Persons: WASHINGTON —, ODNI Organizations: WASHINGTON, National Intelligence, Congress Locations: Lubov, Lymany, Mykolaiv, Ukraine, Saharan Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, Russian
Wall Street anticipates upside of 16%, based on the average price target. Skyworks Solutions , which pays a dividend yield of about 2.5%, is on Wolfe's list. About 44% of the analysts covering the stock rate it a buy or a strong buy, according to Refinitiv. About 74% of the analysts covering the stock rate it a buy or a strong buy, per Refinitiv. The average analyst price target calls for upside of 16%.
Persons: Wolfe, Jerome Powell, CenterPoint, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Skyworks, McDonald's, Chris O'Cull, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal, Kansas City, Skyworks Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Refinitiv
BMO, which bought U.S. regional lender Bank of the West earlier this year, said provision for credit losses rose to C$492 million ($361.42 million), compared with C$136 million a year ago. The bank's earnings were also affected by severance costs of C$162 million and C$83 million in legal provisions at its capital markets unit. At Bank of Montreal, net interest income for the quarter rose to C$4.91 billion, compared with C$4.20 billion last year. At Scotiabank net interest income fell to C$4.58 billion, from $4.68 billion a year ago, largely hurt by lower corporate lending and lower loan fees. At Scotiabank, net income came in at C$2.23 billion, compared with C$2.61 billion.
Persons: Carlos Osorio, Tayfun Tuzun, BMO's, Scott Thomson, Thomson, John Aiken, BMO's Tuzun, Nivedita Balu, Pritam Biswas, Sri Hari, Shweta Agarwal, Bernadette Baum, Mike Harrison, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of Montreal, REUTERS, Bank of Nova, Bank of Canada's, BMO, Bank, Scotiabank, Barclays, Bank of, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto, U.S, Mexico, Bank of Montreal, Bengaluru
That sobering view of a post-pandemic global economy emerged from research organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve and debated here this past weekend. "This puts us in a bleak setting, thinking about the parts of the world that are labor rich but capital poor," he said. "I do remember a time, maybe a more naive time...when more trade would create friends," said Ben Broadbent, deputy governor of the Bank of England. If there was a potential bright spot, it was around the discussion of advances in artificial intelligence as a possible driver of higher productivity. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: JACKSON, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Maurice Obstfeld, Barry Eichengreen, Eswar Prasad, Donald Trump, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Bernstein, Ben Broadbent, Ngozi Okonjo, Iweala, Trump, Nela Richardson, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Kansas City Federal Reserve, U.S, Monetary Fund, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Cornell University, U.S . White House Council, Economic, Biden, Bank of England, Trade Organization, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Ukraine, China, West, Washington . China, U.S, Berkeley, Japan, Nigeria, Russian, Europe
China Pays for Economic Mismanagement
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Mickey D. Levy | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Review and Outlook: A joint naval patrol near the Aleutian islands is a warning and a test for the U.S. Images: Zuma Press/Alaska Volcano Observatory/Associated Press Composite: Mark KellyIt’s economic payback time in China. The bill is coming due for excesses resulting from Beijing’s rejection of free enterprise in favor of communist ideals. Xi Jinping has been a powerful dictator, but his stewardship of China’s economy has been awful, proving again that government leaders who allocate resources without regard to markets create economic dysfunction. China’s overreliance on real estate and debt will take years to unwind.
Persons: Mark Kelly It’s, Xi Jinping Organizations: Zuma Press, Associated Locations: Alaska, China
In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.
Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO
Yields on 10-year Treasury yields have surged well above 4%. With both stock valuations and interest rates high, stock prices could continue to fall. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes surged to 15-year highs this week, surpassing 4.3% for the first time since late 2007. This has put a damper on what was a 20% rally for the S&P 500 from January to the end of July. The median S&P 500 year-end price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,300, just below the index's current price around 4,370.
Persons: Stocks, Adam Turnquist, Treasurys, It's, John Lynch, they've, Tom Essaye, Lynch, Turnquist, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Treasury, LPL, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth, Wall Street, Rosenberg Research, RBC, BNP
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecessionary risks may be fading but growth outlook remains flat, analyst saysRebecca Harding, senior fellow at the British Foreign Policy Group, says a recession will likely be averted, but economic growth looks set to be slow.
Persons: Rebecca Harding Organizations: British Foreign Policy
Bob Doll thinks a mild recession will hit the US economy sometime in the near-to-mid future. Outside of the stock market, Doll also thinks bonds are relatively attractive compared to last year. Within the bond market, he likes Treasurys most, with 10-year yields offering more than a 4% coupon. A 1.5% 10-year Treasury is a bad deal, and of course bonds have sold off hard," he said. Treasury bonds can be bought via a brokerage or through TreasuryDirect.
Persons: Bob Doll, Bob Doll isn't, Doll, Phillips, refiners Organizations: Conference, BlackRock, Valero, Aaa, Treasury Locations: HMOs, TreasuryDirect
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's more balance now between workers and employers demands, says Teneo's Ursula BurnsUrsula Burns, Uber & Endeavor Board Member, Teneo Chairman and Former Xerox CEO, joins 'Last Call' to talk headwinds facing boardrooms right now, recessionary risks ahead, the labor market and more.
Persons: Teneo's Ursula Burns Ursula Burns Organizations: Uber & Endeavor, Xerox
Watch CNBC's full interview with Fmr. Xerox CEO Ursula Burns
  + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Fmr. Xerox CEO Ursula BurnsUrsula Burns, Uber & Endeavor Board Member, Teneo Chairman and Former Xerox CEO, joins 'Last Call' to talk headwinds facing boardrooms right now, recessionary risks ahead, the labor market, A.I.
Persons: Ursula Burns Ursula Burns Organizations: Fmr, Xerox, Uber & Endeavor
Spot gold prices hit a record intraday high of $2,072.5 on Aug. 7, 2020, according to data from Refinitiv. We also see a return of physical gold jewelry demand from China and India as both economies stabilize and retail spending returns. Gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with interest rates. "We also see a return of physical gold jewelry demand from China and India as both economies stabilize and retail spending returns," Heng said. Chinese retail gold demand has been resilient in 2023 even as consumption of other commodities remained weak, Citi said in a July report.
Persons: Sven Hoppe, Bart Melek, Melek, David Neuhauser, Neuhauser, Randy Smallwood, Heng, Heng Koon, UOB Heng, Citi's, Doshi Organizations: Getty, Refinitiv, CNBC, Securities, U.S . Federal, Livermore Partners, Fed, Wheaton Precious Metals, greenback, Markets, Federal Reserve, Citi, Commodities, Future Publishing Locations: U.S, China, India, Yichang, Hubei province
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKonig: Yield surges offer opportunities to buy the dip in fixed incomeSkylar Montgomery Konig, Senior Global Macro Strategist at TS Lombard, discusses how to invest in the fixed income market amid recessionary and economic concerns.
Persons: Montgomery Konig Organizations: Konig, TS Lombard
UBS reiterates Home Depot and Lowe's as buy UBS said it sees next week's earnings reports for the home improvement retailers as a "low impact" event. JPMorgan upgrades DraftKings to neutral from underweight JPMorgan upgraded DraftKings mainly on valuation after Disney and Penn announced a partnership Tuesday. Bank of America reiterates Rivian as buy Bank of America said the electric vehicle maker is in the right place at the right time. UBS downgrades UPS to neutral from buy UBS downgraded the stock after its earnings report Tuesday and said it's concerned about cost pressures. Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as buy Bank of America said it's standing by its buy rating on the stock. "
Persons: BTIG, it's, JPMorgan, Berenberg, Marqeta, Rivian, Jefferies, Eli Lilly, GLP, LLY, Wells, Wells Fargo, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bank of America, Walmart, UBS, JPMorgan, Disney, Penn, Barclays, Dish, State, EV, UPS, Industries, " Bank of America, Nvidia Locations: 2Q24, LLY, GTLS
The S&P 500 has rallied 17% year-to-date, but the Treasury yield curve and LEI point to a downturn. For Rosenberg, the difference is that we currently have an inverted yield curve, a recession signal that has preceded every downturn since the 1960s. An inverted yield curve means that rates on short-duration Treasurys rise higher than rates on long-duration Treasurys. The yield curve inverts often during Fed hiking cycles because short-term Treasury rates track closely along with the fed funds rate. The below chart shows the share of consecutive trading days where the yield curve has been inverted.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, , Here's Lacy Hunt, here's Rosenberg, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Federal, Hoisington Investment Management Company, of Labor Statistics
Wall Street analysts named a list of stocks this week that they say could offer protection for investors as market tension rises. "We view Zscaler as a best-in-class, next generation cybersecurity company built for the distributed cloud world," he added. Earlier this week, the firm initiated coverage of the aerospace and defense components company with a buy rating. Zscaler - BTIG, buy rating "Over the last couple of months, we have spoken with seven contacts with a view on ZS, and feedback has been consistently positive. TransDigm Group - Citi, buy rating "The company's focus on proprietary products & lean operations affords pricing power and margin expansion potential.
Persons: Jason Kupferberg, Kupferberg, TOST, Zscaler, Gray Powell, Powell, Jason Gursky, Gursky, TransDigm, BURL, ROST, LULU, NetEase, Morgan Stanley Organizations: CNBC, Urban Outfitters, Toast Bank of America, TransDigm Group Citi, TransDigm, Barclays, Free, Citi, NetEase, Bank of America, TAM Locations: 2H23
Moller-Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) warned on Friday of a steeper decline in global demand for shipping containers by sea this year prompted by muted economic growth and customers reducing inventories. The company, one of the world's biggest container shippers with a market share of around 17%, said it expects container volumes to fall by as much as 4%. Maersk, one of the world's biggest container shippers with a market share of around 17%, transports goods for retailers and consumer companies such as Walmart, Nike and Unilever. Maersk posted record earnings last year due to high freight rates caused by high consumer demand and pandemic-related log jams at ports. But freight rates have tumbled this year amid a global economic slowdown.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Moller, destocking, Vincent Clerc, Jacob Gronholt, Pedersen, Terje Solsvik, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Maersk, REUTERS, Shipping, Walmart, Nike, Unilever, Thomson Locations: Copenhagen, Denmark, Europe, United States
Airbnb said it had 115.1 million nights and experiences booked during the quarter, up almost 11%, but less than the 117.6 million StreetAccount consensus. In a letter to shareholders, Airbnb said the nights and experiences booked number was up against a tough comparison. "We saw an improvement in year-over-year Nights and Experiences Booked growth during the quarter from 10% in April to 15% in June," the company said. Management called for a "modest" sequential acceleration in nights and experiences booked. During the quarter Airbnb introduced Rooms in an effort to play up the appeal of affordable private bedrooms to rent out, at $67 per night on average.
Persons: Brian Chesky, Airbnb, Gross, Refinitiv, Nick Gerli Organizations: StreetAccount, Management Locations: Los Angeles, North America
TD Cowen upgrades Ross to outperform from market perform TD Cowen said consensus is "underestimating [a] margin recovery" for Ross. TD Cowen downgrades Columbia to market perform from outperform TD Cowen said demand looks muted for Columbia Sportswear . Bernstein downgrades Etsy to market perform from outperform Bernstein said it's concerned about slowing growth. Piper Sandler reiterates Crocs as overweight Piper Sandler said the shoe company is "underpinned by +DD [double digit] earnings growth and compelling valuation." Citi reiterates Apple as buy Citi said it's standing by its buy rating heading into Apple earnings after the bell.
Persons: TD Cowen, Ross, Cowen, Bernstein, Etsy, it's, Piper Sandler, Crocs, CROX, QCOM, Jefferies, Simon, Telsey, Roblox, Morgan Stanley, Robinhood, Janney, Coke Organizations: TD Cowen downgrades Columbia, Columbia, Buyers, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Qualcomm, Apple, Simon, Bank of America, UBS, Costco Locations: underperform, Wingstop, 1Q22
Crude oil storage tanks are seen in an aerial photograph at the Cushing oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, U.S. April 21, 2020. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels, the API data showed, compared with estimates for a 1.3 million barrel drop. Both are indicators of robust prompt fuel demand in the U.S."The seasonal peak demand period (for transportation fuels) and supply cuts by oil producing countries have caused oil prices to rise," said CMC Markets analyst Leon Li. Oil prices may continue to rise, but they may not exceed $90 a barrel given recessionary pressures in some regions such as Europe, said Li. Furthermore, after the summer demand peak passes, "oil prices have entered the end of this round of upward trend", he said.
Persons: Leon Li, Li, Philip Jones, Arathy Somasekhar, Trixie Yap, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, West Texas, American Petroleum Institute, Organization of, Petroleum, Sparta Commodities, Lux, Thomson Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, U.S, China, SINGAPORE, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Sparta, Houston, Singapore
Look at the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, says Rosenberg, who called the 2008 recession. He added: "Even if we could argue about a recession or a soft landing, you have Nirvana priced into the stock market as an asset class right now." 7 places for returns as a recession loomsThe first place Rosenberg said he's bullish on is the Treasury market. Treasury bills have durations of one year or less, while Treasury bonds have durations of 20 years or more. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is one way to invest in Japanese stocks.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Treasurys, Rosenberg, there's, he's, bullish, underperformance, Warren Buffett Organizations: Treasury, Conference, CNN, Rosenberg Research, Treasury Bond ETF, Regional Banking, Vanguard Utilities, Real, Fidelity MSCI Communication Locations: U.S, Japan
Saudi Arabia's economy slowed in the second quarter, as crude output cuts and a drop in oil prices reined in one of the fastest growing nations of the G20. Riyadh's GDP expanded by an annual 1.1% in the second quarter, the Saudi General Authority for Statistics said Monday, down from 3.8% in the previous quarter and 11.2% in the same period of 2022. The non-oil sector — where Saudi Arabia is directing its socioeconomic reforms under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 economic diversification program — grew by 5.5% in the second quarter. But hydrocarbon-reliant Riyadh logged a 4.2% loss in non-oil GDP in the second quarter, bearing the brunt of lower global crude prices and voluntary oil production cuts. Oil prices spiked last year, as Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and ensuing international sanctions decoupled many Western consumers from Russian crude supplies.
Persons: Prince Mohammed bin Salman's, Brent Organizations: Saudi General Authority, Statistics, Saudi, Commodities, Organization of, Petroleum, Monetary Fund Locations: Saudi, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Ukraine, London, OPEC, Russia, East, Central
Economist David Rosenberg told Insider that Fed employees laughed at his recession call in 2007. On October 9, 2007, shortly before the global economy plunged into recession, David Rosenberg delivered a presentation to economists and members of the research team at the Federal Reserve detailing why a downturn was coming. The Treasury yield curve is near its most inverted levels since the early 1980s. Here's the spread between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields. Then there's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which is in recessionary territory, marked by the red lines below.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Mr, Louis Organizations: Federal Reserve, North, Conference, Fed, Federal, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: North American
NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - Two hedge funds have placed bets that bonds issued by life insurance company Lincoln National Corp (LNC.N) will fall or that its default risk will increase, due to their concerns about the company's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. Lincoln declined to provide comments on the hedge funds' positions and referred to previous remarks by its management. Fitch Ratings' senior director Jamie Tucker said in an email to Reuters the agency considers Lincoln's CRE exposure modestly below-average compared with the industry, while the quality is materially stronger. In April, Boaz Weinstein, founder of New York-based Saba, said in a post the firm was holding some of Lincoln's credit default swap (CDS), and had already sold some of it. loadingLincoln's CDS spread, a measure of credit risk, is 238 basis points, compared with 323 when Saba disclosed the position, meaning the perceived risk has declined.
Persons: Ellen Cooper, David Meneret, Lincoln, Fitch, Moody's, Jamie Tucker, Boaz Weinstein, Saba, Tracy Benguigui, Carolina Mandl, Megan Davies, Anna Driver Organizations: YORK, Lincoln National Corp, Saba Capital, Moody's, Reuters, New, CDS, Partners, Citizens Inc, Barclays, LNC, Thomson Locations: CRE, Hill, Lincoln, Saba, New York
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