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☆ Americans support strikes — until they affect their daily lives
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The public will continue to support them – that is until the strikes begin to affect Americans’ daily lives. CNN reached out to the Justice Department for comment but has not received a response. The US Labor Department releases August figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for jobless benefits in the week ended September 30. The US Labor Department releases September data on the state of the job market, including payroll gains, wage growth and the unemployment rate.

Persons: –, ” Andrew Flowers, “, Eva Rothenberg, Suisse’s, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin, Mary Daly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN —, Gallup, Guild of America, Teamsters, Reno, United Auto Workers, UAW, Toyota, Honda, CNN, Nationwide, UBS, DOJ, US Department of Justice, Credit Suisse, “ UBS, CS, Bloomberg, Justice Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, McCormick, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Co, US Commerce Department, Carnival Corp Locations: Washington, United States, Hollywood, Las Vegas, Germany, Russia

☆ The problem with labor data in understanding inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank will continue to pay close attention to the state of the labor market, specifically on wages, as it focuses on defeating inflation, but there’s only so much that labor data can reveal about price increases. Mainly, it’s that wage figures are great at gauging inflation’s progress, but they’re lousy at forecasting its future. Financial markets have shifted back to a “bad news is good news” way of perceiving economic data and will continue to react to labor data, but ultimately, it’s the actual inflation data that matter most to the Fed. The issue of labor figures in forecasting inflation lies with productivity data. The Federal Reserve releases August data on industrial production.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, ”, Quincy Krosby, ” Agron Nicaj, it’s, Anna Cooban, ” James Athey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, Financial, LPL Financial, CNN, Oracle, National Federation of Independent Business, National Statistics, US Labor Department, Adobe, European Central Bank, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Lennar Homes, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Saudi Arabia

☆ Morning Bid: Transatlantic surprise gap opens up again
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. And the gap between those two gauges, which had halved from July peaks, is starting to yawn wider yet again. Although the steep annual drop in Chinese exports and imports last month was marginally better than forecast, the ongoing funk in activity remains stark and threatens Beijing's overall economic growth target of about 5%. At least six senior Fed officials are in speaking engagements later on Thursday - including Fed board member Michelle Bowman and New York Fed chief John Williams. Events to watch for on Thursday:* U.S. weekly jobless claims, Q2 labor cost and productivity revisions* Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan all speak.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, bourses steadied, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, Joe Biden, Susan Fenton Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, U.S, Federal, Treasury, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Fed, New York Fed, Apple, Beijing, Federal Reserve, Michelle Bowman , New York Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, United States, Europe, China, Brent, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Japan, Asia, Michelle Bowman , New, Atlanta, India, New Delhi

Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and a member of the Fed’s interest rate policy committee, doesn't think another hike is needed. Our rate today is higher than the rate of inflation. I’m going to remain diligent and pay attention and make sure that inflation continues on the trajectory that it’s been on. A. We’re going to have to keep our rate higher for longer than historically happens, because we need to make sure that inflation stays at 2%. We’re just going to have to stay restrictive for quite a while, until we are sure, sure, sure, sure, sure, sure that inflation is not going to bounce up far away from our target.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, doesn't, Bostic, we’re, I’ve, I’m, we’ve, We’re Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Associated Press, Fed

☆ The Fed likely won’t raise rates this month — but November is another matter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —Last week’s economic data increasingly gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates steady this month, following a hike in July that brought rates to their highest level in 22 years. It’s hard to say definitively if or when the central bank will hike interest rates again this year. The Fed could hold rates steady for the rest of the year if both the job market and the broader economy continue to slow, helping bring down inflation. Higher for longer means keeping interest rates elevated for a prolonged period. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases August inflation data.

Persons: hasn’t, ” Leslie Thompson, Thompson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Susan Collins, Powell’s Jackson, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Olesya Dmitracova, ” Patrick Hummel, David Lesne, Juan Perez, Carrascosa, Barnes & Noble Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Financial, Spectrum Wealth Management, CNN, Fed, Kansas City, Boston, Yahoo, Finance, Atlanta Fed, Volkswagen, Renault, UBS, French, Swiss, Barnes &, The Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Eagle, Express, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Kroger, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Cape Town , South Africa, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Early Labor Day for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 1 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanLabor Day comes a bit earlier for markets this year, with Friday's release of the critical August jobs report coming just ahead of Monday's end-of-season U.S. holiday. A series of updates showed private sector hiring slowing in August, while job openings fell back in July and layoffs jumped. On the flipside, more up-to-date weekly jobless claims fell again and the consensus payrolls estimate has ticked higher from 150,000 only last week. Going into Friday's report, futures markets remain split and stand 50-50 on the chances of another hike by November. And whatever they think about peak rates, markets are also grappling with the prospect of rates staying up here for some time.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, JP Morgan, Saola, Gita Gopinath, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Alexander Smith Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Labor, JP, Atlanta, HK, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Treasury, P Global, Cleveland Federal, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hong Kong, Europe

☆ Dollar gains on solid data, euro drops on cautious ECB comments
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in six months in July, with an 0.8% increase, but slowing inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged next month. “The dollar is faring better as today’s data suggests America’s economic glass remains half full,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. Money markets are now pricing in a 69% probability that the ECB will leave rates unchanged at its September meeting. The dollar was last 7.2595 against the onshore yuan , after reaching 7.2485, the lowest level since Aug. 14.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Joe Manimbo, Raphael Bostic, ’, Isabel Schnabel, “ We've, Michael Brown, Karen Brettell, Samuel Indyk, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Reuters, ECB, Trader, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, People's Bank of China, London

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. Shares of Salesforce (CRM.N), which also forecast upbeat quarterly sales, rose 5.6% before the bell as the cloud-based software provider benefits from price hikes and a resilient demand. Investors now await the price consumption expenditure (PCE) index for July, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due at 8:30 a.m. The core PCE price index is expected to have climbed 4.2% in the 12 months through July, according to economists polled by Reuters. Among other stocks, Dollar General (DG.N) slumped 14.2% after the discount retailer cut its annual same-store sales forecast.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Salesforce, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Raphael Bostic's, Alibaba, Shristi Achar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Investors, Reuters, Graphics Traders, Atlanta Fed, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Dow e, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Fed's Bostic says U.S. interest rates are high enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks to reporters at the National Association of Business Economics' annual policy meeting in Washington, U.S. March 21, 2022. "I feel policy is appropriately restrictive," Bostic said in remarks prepared for delivery to the South African Reserve Bank Biennial Conference in Cape Town, South Africa. "We should be cautious and patient and let the restrictive policy continue to influence the economy, lest we risk tightening too much and inflicting unnecessary economic pain." U.S. central bankers are widely expected to leave the Fed's policy rate in the current range of 5.25%-5.5% when they next meet in a little less than three weeks. Bostic has been in the minority at the Fed, cautioning against over-tightening policy and needlessly hurting jobs and livelihoods.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Ann Saphir, Bostic, Bostic's, Richard Chang Organizations: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, National Association of Business Economics, REUTERS, South African Reserve Bank Biennial, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Cape Town , South Africa, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Rates dice, AI arms race and G20 snub
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

AI (Artificial Intelligence) letters and robot hand are placed on computer motherboard in this illustration taken, June 23, 2023. Even if that came in slightly above forecasts, an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in the country's service sector ensured another underwhelming reaction. Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to skip a summit of G20 leaders in India, sources told Reuters. Overall, Asia markets were flat to negative - Europe's bourses were higher and U.S. futures held steady ahead of Thursday's open. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by David Evans, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, chatbots, Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic, Luis de Guindos, Campbell, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Baidu, HK, Washington, Reuters, Premier, U.S, Treasury, UBS, Chicago, Boston Federal, Atlanta Fed, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Dollar, Hormel, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Beijing, India, New Delhi, Asia

An additional quarter-percentage-point rate increase, whether at the Fed's Sept. 19-20 meeting or later in the year, would be marginal in its macroeconomic impact, a small addition to the 5.25 percentage points the Fed has added to its policy rate over the 16 months ending in July. 'MIXED MESSAGING'The minutes include references to how officials assess the economy, the likely path of inflation, appropriate monetary policy, and the chief risks to policymakers' outlook. The core PCE index fell in June to 4.1% from 4.6% in May, a fact only released after the Fed meeting, though economists expected the decline. Since the July meeting, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has joined Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic in saying no more rate increases were needed. If market interest rates "break higher ... the Fed is going to have a problem.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Tim Duy, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Citi, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, New York Fed, Market Committee, Macro, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Fed officials are divided, but holding rates steady in September seems likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-13 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve officials meet next month to determine whether to raise interest rates for the 12th time to cool the economy or hold them steady. Some officials think the Fed has already raised its benchmark lending rate enough to curb inflation, but others think it’s too soon to tap the brakes. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker echoed that sentiment in a speech last week, saying “I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady.”Other Fed officials agree. “Inflation is still significantly above” the Fed’s 2% target, Fed governor Michelle Bowman said last week at an event in Atlanta. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July policymaking meeting as well as July figures on industrial production.

Persons: ” Rajeev Sharma, ”, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, “, Raphael Bostic, there’s, Michelle Bowman, ” Carol Schleif, ” Schleif, Katie Lobosco, Brinker Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Key Private Bank, CNN, “, Fed, Financial, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, BMO Family Office, Internal Revenue, Tax Administration, IRS, Kansas City Tax Processing, Fresno Tax Processing, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Depot, US Commerce Department, Target, Federal Reserve, Walmart Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Atlanta, Kansas, Fresno

☆ Morning Bid: A sticky inflation situation
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

With a relentless set of rate hikes, the Federal Reserve has managed to drive consumer price increases down to 3%, from last June's 9.1%. The Atlanta Fed compiles an index of core sticky consumer prices - goods or services for which the cost changes far more slowly. Reuters GraphicsLine chart with data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve shows PCE inflation slowed to 3% year-on-year in June, while core PCE inflation also eased to 4.2%. Chart shows economists polled by Reuters expecting the U.S. consumer price index to have increased 0.2% in July 2023 from the previous month, the same pace as June 2023. * Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks at a webinar, 1500 EDT/1900 GMT.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, they're, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, American Automobile Association, Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Yahoo Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Manheim

☆ Dollar eases as China deflation lures investors into risk assets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The dollar eased on Wednesday after data showed the Chinese economy slipped into deflation last month, which upped the chances for the government to roll out extra stimulus measures and nudged investors into risk assets. Dollar selling by state-owned Chinese banks helped the yuan rally from a one-month low, dealers said. The Chinese central bank's stronger-than-expected exchange-rate fixing at 7.1588 per dollar before the open signalled its discomfort with the yuan's recent declines. The dollar index - which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others - eased 0.1%, paring some of Tuesday's 0.47% rise. "Chinese inflation data showed that consumer prices have barely moved in July, confirming that the world’s second-largest economy is stalling and may be moving into deflation," he said.

Persons: There's, Ray Attrill, Ricardo Evangelista, Chris Scicluna, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Buckland, Brigid Riley, Simon Cameron, Moore, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: National Australia Bank, Federal Reserve, Daiwa Capital, ECB, Bank of England, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: China, Tokyo

☆ Dollar firm on safe-haven demand as markets fret over China, banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The employee of a currency exchange shop counts U.S. dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. The Chinese yuan, however, got some respite after the central bank set a stronger official rate than expected, signalling its discomfort with recent declines. Worries about the global economy flared again after data on Tuesday showed Chinese imports and exports contracting faster than expected in July. U.S. Treasuries also saw a surge in demand from haven-seeking investors, with 10-year yields briefly dipping back below 4%. Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Additional reporting by Brigid Riley; Editing by Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez TOKYO, Treasuries, Ray Attrill, there's, Attrill, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Bart Wakabayashi, Kevin Buckland, Brigid Riley, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, New Zealand, U.S, Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, National Australia Bank, People's Bank of, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Fed, State Street Bank, Trust, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Asia, Rome, China, People's Bank of China, Tokyo

☆ Morning Bid: Caution the watchword for inflation tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Produce is seen at El Progreso Market in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File PhotoA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been a slow start in Asia, with little in the way of market-moving news over the weekend. Both Bank of America and JPMorgan last week ditched their forecasts for a U.S. recession and embraced the soft landing theme. Inflation figures from the United States and China will be major tests for investors this week.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Wayne Cole, It's, Walt Disney, Huw Pill, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Edmund Klamann Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Bank of America, JPMorgan, U.S, CPI, New Corp, Fox, Sony, Bank of England's, Atlanta Fed, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, Wayne, Asia, U.S, United States, China, Beijing, Japan

☆ Ahead of two key inflation reports, what would a soft landing look like exactly?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But aside from simply skirting a recession, it’s not obvious what the economy would look like in a soft landing. And who even declares that the Fed has officially defied the odds and achieved a soft landing? The main aspect of a soft landing, according to economists, is the absence of a recession, which is determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.) In a soft landing, the job market has to remain intact. The other key feature of a soft landing is for the Fed to successfully control inflation, but that’s open to some interpretation.

Persons: we’ve, ”, Kayla Bruun, “, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, Josh Markman, cooldown, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Armour, Ralph Lauren Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Morning, Atlanta, ZipRecruiter, Labor, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, “, Tyson Foods, UPS, Fox, Restaurant Brands, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Disney, US Labor Department, National Statistics, University of Michigan Locations: Washington

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., July 26, 2023. Other parts of the Labor Department report were less encouraging for Fed policymakers counting on a labor market softening to put more downward pressure on inflation. Traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see less than a 30% chance of another rate hike by the end of this year, down from about a 35% chance before Friday's jobs report. "I think overall this still does point to a labor market that is slowly but steadily heading toward a soft landing," said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor. There are several more key data releases that will shape Fed policymakers' views before the next policy meeting in September.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, Daniel Zhao, Kathy Bostjancic, Ann Saphir, Tim Ahmann, Lucia Mutikani, Jason Neely, Kevin Liffey, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Bloomberg Television, Labor Department, Chicago Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

☆ Atlanta Fed President Bostic: Data looks 'quite promising' for 'orderly' economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAtlanta Fed President Bostic: Data looks 'quite promising' for 'orderly' economic slowdownCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Closing Bell' to report on Fed President Raphael Bostic's latest remarks on inflation.

Persons: Bostic, Steve Liesman, Raphael Bostic's Organizations: Atlanta

☆ What to expect from the Fed’s decision on rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. The Commerce Department releases the June reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure Friday. The Fed held rates steady for nine straight meetings over the span of a year the last time it paused a rate-hiking campaign in 2006. Nearly all of the Fed’s decisions have been unanimous since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022, with the exception of two meetings early in the Fed’s current inflation battle.

Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, ”, José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, ”, The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming, —

☆ What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

After the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, investors will be looking for more details around that potential hike. That’s why the Fed is trying to retain the option of another rate increase in case inflation proves to be more resilient than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. Whatever the Fed decides to do won’t come without a vigorous debate, and perhaps even a dissent, though the Fed has a tradition of collegiality.

Persons: —, it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, ”, José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, ”, The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming, —

While recent inflation data was encouraging, he said, "one data point does not make a trend." Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics'STRANGE BUSINESS CYCLE'Until the Fed declares its inflation war at an end, however, economists and market analysts say risks to a benign outcome will remain. "At 3.5%, July won't be the last time the Fed hikes," Furman said in an interview. Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, meanwhile, is skeptical that the impact of rapid rate hikes has already been absorbed. "To say we have the same economy with real rates at negative 2% as we do at positive 2%, I don't buy it."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Nick Bunker, Jason Furman, Obama, Furman, Ed Al, Columbia Threadneedle, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, shouldn't, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Harvard University, White, Columbia, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Thomson Locations: U.S

That could help lower overall inflation when the next CPI report is released on Aug. 10, with the details in Wednesday's report suggesting "downside risks" to any forecast of July's inflation rate. Indeed, at least one Fed official on Wednesday stuck to policymakers' prevailing hawkish mantra that inflation is still too high. While not specifically addressing the CPI report, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told a Maryland business group that he still felt inflation had "been stubbornly persistent." 'FINAL INNINGS'But the latest CPI data could undercut arguments for yet another rate increase beyond the July meeting. Fed officials, blindsided by the persistence of inflation they initially thought would dissipate on its own, have been reluctant to bank on good news continuing.

Persons: Omair Sharif, Rick Rieder, Lael Brainard, Brainard, Thomas Barkin, Goldman Sachs, they've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Labor Department, Reuters Graphics Reuters, BlackRock, Fed, White, Economic Council, Economic, of New, Richmond Fed, U.S, Cleveland Fed's Center, Inflation Research, Atlanta Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: U.S, of New York, Maryland

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar swoons in upbeat inflation vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets leaned positively into another critical U.S. inflation report later on Wednesday, seeding a dollar (.DXY) slide to two-month lows that's revved-up yen and sterling gains. And June's CPI readout should be a marker if the consensus forecast for almost a full percentage-point drop in the headline inflation rate to two year lows of just 3.1% is borne out. Still, encouraged by a screed of other positive disinflation signals this week, U.S. markets are relatively buoyant going into the release and still feel the end of the Fed rate rise campaign is nigh. UK bank stocks pushed higher on the rates view and a relatively clean bill of health from Wednesday's financial stability report from the BOE. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its long-running rate rise campaign early on Tuesday.

Persons: Mike Dolan, BOE, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Joe Biden, Nick Macfie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, yearend, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of, recoiling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Activision, Richmond Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Cleveland Fed, NATO, . Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, British, Vilnius

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