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☆ Dollar nudges lower as U.S. debt ceiling deal dents safe-haven appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Dollar edges down following U.S. debt ceiling dealRisk currencies rallyTurkish lira touches new record lowLONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - The dollar nudged lower on Monday, pulling back from six-month peaks against the yen as a U.S. debt ceiling deal lifted risk appetite across world markets and dented the greenback's safe-haven appeal. Having briefly touched a six-month high of 140.91 yen during Asia trade, the dollar drifted lower and was last down 0.25% at 140.25 yen. "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date." Talk that the U.S. rate hiking cycle may not be over as soon as hoped given signs of economic strength have bolstered the dollar this month and could support the currency even as U.S. debt ceiling worries abate.

☆ Investing in AI: how to avoid the hype
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies AI boom brings fresh challenge for investorsAI-themed stocks highly valuedStick with big tech not AI stocks - investorsLONDON, May 26(Reuters) - Experienced tech investors are hunting for undervalued opportunities in an over-valued space. Investors are chasing exposure to generative AI, the technology run by ChatGPT that learns from analysing vast datasets to generate text, images and computer code. Businesses are trying to use generative AI to speed up video editing, recruitment and even legal work. GAM's Hawtin said he has also hunted out companies that provide the "picks and shovels," necessary for enabling new AI technology. Amazon's Bedrock service, for example, lets companies customise generative AI models rather than invest in developing them themselves.

☆ Take Five: More drama on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - There's no shortage of events, data and high drama for markets in the days ahead. 1/ USA WATCHCritical U.S. inflation data will allow investors to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will be able to pause its interest rate hiking cycle, as many on Wall Street expect. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, tracked by the Fed, is due on Friday for April. That was the smallest rise since July and, with the consumer price index slowing in April to below 5% on annual basis, hope for peak rates has grown. Yet this narrative could lose steam if Wednesday's April inflation data shows price rises are moderating.

☆ European body to review question on Credit Suisse bankruptcy event
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] A view shows the logo of Credit Suisse on a building near the Hallenstadion in Zurich, Switzerland, April 4, 2023. REUTERS/Pierre AlbouyLONDON, May 18 (Reuters) - A European body that reviews disputes in the credit default swaps market said on Thursday it will discuss whether a bankruptcy credit event occurred at Credit Suisse after regulators wiped out the bank's junior bondholders in a state-assisted merger with UBS . The EMEA Credit Derivatives Determination Committee (CDDC) said it will meet on Friday to discuss the fresh question raised by an investor on Thursday, it said on its website. A number of circumstances can constitute a credit event, which - if confirmed by the CDDC - could trigger a payout on credit default swaps which insure against losses from exposure to corporate or sovereign debt. On Wednesday, the CDDC ruled in response to another question that a Governmental Intervention credit event had not occurred, closing down one of the ways CDS holders were pursuing to secure a payout.

☆ Take Five: A summit with a ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That would complicate a reported side summit with Japan and South Korea on strengthening security cooperation. Reuters Graphics4/ DATA DIVEA batch of key economic data will shed fresh light on whether the United States is staving off a downturn given Federal Reserve rate hikes. Tuesday's retail sales data will gauge the health of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. Retail sales fell more than expected in March, as consumers cut back on buying motor vehicles and other big-ticket items. A Reuters poll of economists showed a median projection of U.S. retail sales growing 0.7% in April from the previous month, after two straight months of decline.

There are some signs that the broader $275 billion AT1 market is recovering. Reuters GraphicsLast month, Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) was the first major global bank to sell AT1s since the March rout. With time, analysts expect UBS to sell AT1s aplenty to meet its capital requirements. It has a 700 million Singapore dollar ($755 million) AT1 bond repayable in November followed by a heftier $2.5 billion bond in January. RATINGS GAMEInvestor appetite for a UBS AT1 could also hinge on its future credit profile.

☆ Sterling hits one-year high as Bank of England decision nears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, May 5 (Reuters) - The pound rose to just shy of a one-year high against the dollar on Friday, and to a one-month high against the euro, as traders eyed the Bank of England's interest rate decision next week. Sterling was up 0.21% at $1.26 on Friday, after reaching $1.263 earlier in the session, the highest since late May last year. The euro was down 0.14% against the pound at 87.49 pence, after earlier falling to 87.42 pence, the lowest since April 6. The European Central Bank on Thursday raised rates by 25 bps, a step down in the pace of monetary tightening. Traders broadly expect the Bank of England to raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday next week, according to pricing in derivatives markets.

☆ US debt ceiling: How to trade off it
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

BlackRock says (BLK.N) it's been buying Treasuries in anticipation of an economic slowdown and a protracted debt ceiling fight. 2/ RAINY DAY DEFAULT PROTECTIONCredit default swaps (CDS), which work like insurance against a debt default, are seeing strong demand. "If debt ceiling concerns grow we think markets will price in more Fed rate cut expectations, which means 5-year yields would fall," said Miyairi. 5/ ALL THAT GLITTERSDeutsche Bank strategist Robin Winkler says a good hedge may be buying gold against the dollar, as it has the tightest relationship with newsflow around the debt ceiling. In August 2011, as a debt ceiling crisis prompted a U.S. credit rating downgrade, gold rose 11% that month alone.

☆ Take Five: Sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The services component of the price data can gauge demand, but consumer and producer price data broadly paint a picture of deflation. April inflation data is out Thursday. At 10.1%, UK inflation is the highest in Western Europe. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ SELL IN MAYConventional wisdom has it that May is the ideal point to take profit on equities and lay low until later in the year. "Sell in May and go away" is based on the premise that the best six-month period of the year for stock market returns is November to April, while the leanest is May to October.

☆ Goldman Sachs cautious on Turkish bank stocks ahead of election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Thursday it was "cautious" on Turkish banks heading into the May 14 election, with lenders more vulnerable than the country's other stocks to a potential post-vote rate hike following years of unorthodox monetary policy. Polls show President Tayyip Erdogan risks losing the landmark election largely due to a cost-of-living crisis that has seen inflation soar to more than 85% last year amid ultra-lose monetary policy. Turkish banks had historically been beneficiaries of higher rates, though that relationship broke down last November when the government created new rules effectively forcing banks to lend at lower rates, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. "In our view, banks are most likely to take a hit in an opposition win scenario," Goldman Sachs' Jolene Zhong wrote. Reporting by Karin Strohecker, editing by Dhara RanasingheOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

ECB chief Christine Lagarde said the central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro was not pausing. "This is a very restrictive policy and it will turn into credit tightening and that will bring a recession." The ECB has now increased its key deposit rate by some 375 bps since last July, from -0.5%. U.S. rates have jumped 500 bps, with the Federal Reserve hiking again on Wednesday while opening the door to a pause. Gareth Rudd, a European equity fund manager at Chelverton Asset Management, said he was negative on European bank stocks because regulators will want them to conserve capital instead of paying dividends.

LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro area is too high for comfort, meaning markets expect the European Central Bank to deliver its seventh straight interest rate hike on Thursday. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates by on Thursday? Most analysts expect at least one more rate move after Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve looks set to pause its rate hike campaign. Market pricing suggests ECB rates will peak around 3.6% this year, and Belgium's central bank governor Pierre Wunsch says he wouldn't be surprised to see rates rise to 4%. Tuesday's bank lending should offer some clues but it might be too early to gauge the full impact of the March banking crisis on financing conditions.

The hedge funds said they can share ideas, but cannot reveal their trading positions for regulatory reasons. Reddy said he preferred senior unsecured bank debt, that allowed bondholders payment ahead of some other creditors in the event of an insolvency. Taking bearish positions on banks that lend to smaller and medium sized firms could prove opportunistic if the economy weakens, he added. Trend-wise the Japanese yen should continue to weaken," said Chua, noting that central banks in Asia have slowed or paused rate hikes. Insurers, which holds commercial mortgage-backed securities and property, will likely feel pressures on CRE, he said.

Things are calmer now, but seven traders who spoke to Reuters, some heading rates desks at big global banks, said March's mayhem continues to reverberate, with fears of further volatility in traditionally stable bond markets muting activity. Investors rely on government bond markets to translate central bank interest rates into a stable benchmark for borrowing costs, from corporate loans to household mortgages. Yield shifts in government bond markets have become bigger - occasionally hitting 20 bps a day - since central banks started ramping up rate hikes last year to tame surging inflation. For some, March's turmoil is the latest sign of how post-2008 regulations constraining dealer balance sheets are affecting bond market functioning. Others noted markets were leaving behind an era of low volatility for good as rates rise.

☆ Take Five: Rate hike vs bank stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed is expected to deliver another 25-basis point interest rate increase on Wednesday and signal a pause in its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s. Futures markets show investors pricing an nearly 90% chance of a rate increase. But confidence in a 25 bps rate hike has wavered in recent days after problems at lender First Republic reignited concerns over the U.S. banking sector. Yet, key inflation and bank lending data releases in the days ahead could sway that outcome. Tuesday's flash April inflation data is likely to confirm underlying price pressures - running above 5% - remains uncomfortably high.

☆ Exclusive: EU to push for its debt to be included in government bond indexes- official
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Index inclusion "is something we are discussing with market participants at the moment, while we are also doing our internal analysis," the official said, looking at how the EU fulfills index providers' criteria. EU bonds are included in broad bond indexes but inclusion in dedicated government bond indexes compiled by the likes of Bloomberg, JPMorgan or FTSE Russell would be a game changer, as trillions of dollars of investor funds tracking the indexes would effectively become forced buyers. Big investors are also calling for index providers to treat the EU as a government. The EU official noted the bloc has elements of a sovereign, such as a budget and at least indirect taxing powers through member states' contributions. Cosimo Marasciulo, head of fixed income absolute return at Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said it was also calling for EU inclusion in government bond indexes.

☆ Bank stress likely to lead to tighter lending, corporate defaults - BofA credit survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Bank stress will likely be limited to a small number of banks but lead to tighter lending conditions and a pick-up in corporate defaults, a Bank of America April credit investor survey released on Wednesday showed. The gap between high-yield bonds and government debt has tightened on 63% of days so far in 2023, an all-time record, signalling that credit markets are faring well in face of recent market turmoil, BofA said. The biggest share of respondents to its latest survey, some 36%, said they expected bank stress to remain confined to small banks with challenged business models, with the United States more vulnerable than Europe given different regulatory supervisions. However, over 20% said they believed that a credit crunch resulting from the bank stress would lead to a noticeable pick-up in corporate defaults. As banks may withdraw from lending to high-risk assets, credit investors did not believe that private credit markets would step in and replace it.

☆ U.S. five-year credit default swaps hit new 2011 high
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - The cost of insuring exposure to United States sovereign debt rose to its highest since 2011 on Wednesday, driven up by unease that the government could hit its debt ceiling sooner than expected. Spreads on U.S. five-year credit default swaps widened to 62 basis points, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed, up from a close of 59 bps on Tuesday. This is more than double the level they stood at at the start of the year and represents the highest level since 2011, according to Refinitiv data. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday warned that failure by Congress to raise the government's debt ceiling - and the resulting default - would trigger an "economic catastrophe" that would send interest rates higher for years to come. Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Amanda CooperOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank stress likely to lead to tighter lending, corporate defaults, Bank of America credit survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Low and stable inflation is good for markets and the economy, so central banks had to show their seriousness on inflation, Tannenbaum added. Central banks softened rate rises with communication that was mindful of instability risks, showing reassuring "humility", said Perkins. "The bank resolution framework created after the great financial crisis," said Francesco Papadia, senior fellow at Bruegel and former ECB director general for market operations, "is proving difficult to implement." Reuters Graphics4/ UNITED WE STANDAfter CS's rescue, the Fed and other big central banks supported market liquidity with dollar swap lines. Amundi's Pradhan said the "case by case" central bank responses to individual lenders failing in March exposed the lack of a coordinated bank resolution system.

A showdown over U.S. government efforts to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling for the world's largest economy have sent jitters through global financial markets. JPMorgan said in a note published late Wednesday it expected the debt ceiling to become an issue as early as May, and that the debate over both the ceiling and the federal funding bill would run "dangerously close" to final deadlines. Yields on U.S. T-bills, the most sensitive to the debt ceiling debate, were again pushing higher as the deadline draws nearer. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. It can only pay Treasury bills (T-bills) through tax revenue.

German specialised property lenders such as Aareal Bank (ARLG.DE), Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBBG.DE) and Berlin Hyp, have a bigger concentration of real estate exposure, analysts added. Blackstone (BX.N) recently blocked withdrawals from its $70 billion real estate income trust after facing a flurry of redemption requests. Open-ended real estate funds in Britain have also battled to meet strong demand for redemptions. In Europe, CRE exposure for smaller banks, more at risk of deposit flight, is estimated at under 30% of all loans, Capital Economics said. "On the other, real estate owners themselves are going to face quite material increase in costs."

☆ Focus now on how UBS positions itself going forward - BlackRock vice chairman
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Philipp Hildebrand,Vice Chairman of BlackRock, speaks during a news conference with Swiss Economic Minister Guy Parmelin (not pictured), as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue in Bern, Switzerland October 28, 2020. REUTERS/Arnd WiegmannLONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - The Swiss government has done a 'very good job' with Credit Suisse's rescue given circumstances, but the question now is how the takeover settles and how UBS positions itself going forward, Philipp Hildebrand, BlackRock's vice chairman said on Thursday. "The question now will be how does this settle, and how does UBS position itself going forward, given quite intense political discussions in Switzerland around competition, around size, and many other issues," Hildebrand told a Bloomberg conference in Dublin. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is a major shareholder in UBS. Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli and Padraic Halpin; editing by Dhara RanasingheOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ JPMorgan sees "non-trivial risk" of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries as debt ceiling looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - JPMorgan expects the U.S. debt ceiling to become an issue as early as next month with the Wall Street bank ascribing a "non-trivial risk" of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries. The bank said its U.S. rates strategy team expects the Treasury could run out of available resources by the middle of August. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. It can only pay Treasury bills (T-bills) through tax revenues. U.S. credit default swaps, market-based gauges of the risk of a default, this month hit their highest level since 2012 .

☆ Credit squeeze 'biggest threat' to economic outlook, Fidelity says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, a senior official at Fidelity Investments told a European equities conference on Wednesday. The "biggest threat" to the economy is a "true and visible credit crunch", Romain Boscher, chairman of the board at Fidelity Investments, which has about $4.5 trillion of assets under management, told the conference. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.

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