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☆ There's a 'disconnect' between the Federal Reserve and the market, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a 'disconnect' between the Federal Reserve and the market, strategist saysMichael Every of Rabobank says there will, once again, be "a disconnect between where the setters of monetary policy are heading and where the market thinks they should be heading."

☆ London stocks fall as hot UK inflation data spurs rate-hike fears; Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies UK inflation still in double-digit territoryReal estate stocks fall on rate-hike concernsBank stocks gain, help cut lossesFed decision awaited on Wednesday, BoE on ThursdayFTSE 100 down 0.2%, FTSE 250 off 0.3%March 22 (Reuters) - London's exporter-heavy FTSE 100 fell on Wednesday, with real estate stocks leading the retreat, as hotter-than-expected UK inflation data raised fears of more interest rate hikes and boosted the pound. The blue-chip FTSE 100 index (.FTSE) fell 0.2% after a near 2% bounce on Tuesday, with investors also waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision later in the day. The pound rose sharply against the dollar after Britain's consumer price index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February. Real estate stocks fell (.FTUB3510) 2.2%, with British Land Company (BLND.L) down 4.2% after Morgan Stanley reduced its price target. ,Helping cut losses were banking stocks (.FTNMX301010), which gained 0.9% as fears of a crises appeared to ease.

☆ Water’s big moment risks getting lost in the weeds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The latest is research published last Thursday by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water. The sum, though, is just $140 million, and the U.S. government’s International Development Finance Corporation is pouring in three-quarter of the proceeds. But there is a decent investment case for water without state or supranational support. Without them, water’s big moment risks getting lost in the weeds. Follow @AntonyMCurrie on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSThe United Nations 2023 Water Conference starts on March 22, World Water Day, in New York.

☆ How bad is the banking crisis?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Spriha Srivastava | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed along with five other central banks announced coordinated action to reassure global banks. To make sense of those acronyms, GFC refers to the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2009, EZ crisis is the Eurozone crisis of 2009 onwards, temper tantrum likely refers to the taper tantrum of 2013, and the Covid 3/20 shock is when global markets went haywire in the early stages of the pandemic. So, you might be wondering: Just how bad is the banking crisis? "It means the banking crisis we've seen over the past few weeks has started a new chapter rather than reaching its ending." After the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) made it necessary for all European banks to issue CoCo bonds.

☆ Relief rally on bank rescue lifts riskier currencies; dollar slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Aussie jumped 0.76% to $0.6708 in Asia trade on Friday, while the kiwi rose 0.69% to $0.6239. The move followed Credit Suisse's (CSGN.S) announcement earlier on Thursday that it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank, after the central bank threw a financial lifeline to the embattled Swiss lender. Earlier in the week, the Swissie had plunged the most against the dollar in a day since 2015. It was last 0.56% higher at 133.01 per dollar, on track to rise more than 1% for the week. Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar slips as banks rescue makes room for relief rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ECB policymakers sought to reassure investors that euro zone banks were resilient and that if anything, the move to higher rates should bolster their margins. The euro's reaction to the decision was fairly muted, though it managed to eke out a 0.3% gain on Thursday. Earlier in the week, the Swissie had plunged the most against the dollar in a day since 2015. The Japanese yen remained elevated, and was last roughly 0.3% higher at 133.30 per dollar. "The turmoil in the banking sector is complicating the outlook for Fed policy, but the impact may be more nuanced than the Fed simply reversing course," said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

That would come after the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to follow through with a 50 basis point rise it pre-announced in February, prioritizing sticky inflation. Only five respondents in the latest Fed poll expected a pause, including four primary dealers, with only one bank, Nomura, expecting a 25 basis point cut. "The past week's financial turmoil will give the Fed some misgivings about pushing rates much higher," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. Mericle expects more hikes however, with a peak rate of 5.25%-5.50% in Q3, higher than the poll median. Meanwhile the labor market is showing few signs of weakness, with unemployment rate forecasts broadly lower compared with last month's poll.

Signs of calm and stability in banking stocks, which have tanked in the past week following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), soon paved way for renewed selling as Credit Suisse shares fell to record lows. Reuters GraphicsThe STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 1.67%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 51.58 points, or 2.91%Investors rushed back into safe haven investments. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don't think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

[1/3] Switzerland's national flag flies above a logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. Reuters GraphicsThe STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index fell 1.29%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) fell 44.48 points, or 2.51%. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don't think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

☆ Credit Suisse unease sparks selloff in world stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] Switzerland's national flag flies above a logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse in front of a branch office in Bern, Switzerland November 29, 2022. Reuters GraphicsEurope's bank index has now seen more than 120 billion euros evaporate ($127.08 billion) in since March 8. "The Credit Suisse share price is falling and government bonds are rallying on the back of that. Markets are "spooked" by Credit Suisse headlines, said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Rabobank in London. "For today Credit Suisse is the dish of the day but we don’t think this will be a longer lasting trend," he said.

☆ China's pig farms battle new surge in African swine fever
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Dominique Patton | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Data from swine fever virus testing companies show that the number of positive detections exploded after the new year holiday. "We guess that the current swine fever infection area in northern production areas may be reaching 50%," it added. We feel it hasn't ended yet, that's the problem," he said, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of disease outbreaks in China. HARD TO ASSESSChinese farms typically do not report disease outbreaks to the government, making it challenging to get an accurate picture of the extent of the infections. Though not as serious as in 2019, the disease could reduce production by more than 10%, Huachuang analyst Xiao Lin told Reuters.

☆ Quotes: Global banks under pressure as SVB triggers contagion worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - The health of the global banking sector as interest rates rise remained in the spotlight on Tuesday in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). But days of wild swings in global markets and hefty losses in bank shares, left the outlook for the sector in focus. Banks are now faced with the classic problem that has threatened banks throughout history: a mismatch in terms between assets and liabilities." Hopefully we'll go over the next few days, whether or not the financial system is going to calm down or not. "It’s been an indiscriminate sell off in banking stocks, the financial sector repriced everywhere.

Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields dropped more than 50 basis points, much more than a drop of 37 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.

SYDNEY/NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators may have stemmed a banking crisis by guaranteeing deposits of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), but some experts warn that the move has encouraged bad investor behaviour. Following a weekend of discussions over the future of SVB owner SVB Financial Group , banking regulators unveiled emergency funding plans for the bank. Yet by guaranteeing that depositors would lose no money, authorities have again raised the question of moral hazard - removal of people's incentive to guard against financial risk. "If all bank deposits are now insured, why do you need banks?" Some 89% of around $200 billion in deposits held by SVB at the end of 2022 was uninsured, according to the FDIC.

Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields were last down over 40 basis points, much more than a drop of 24 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.

Meanwhile, extremely wide forecasts for new public borrowing requirements make the outlook for government bonds uncertain. Here are the main budget predictions for UK stocks, gilts and the pound. However NatWest analysts flagged that the OBR will likely revise down growth forecasts for the next five years, making the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. Hunt will likely keep the budget "reasonably dull" after Truss's "mini-budget" sent sterling to its lowest on record, she added. Investors in UK stocks are already grappling with a wide valuation gap with U.S. equities.

☆ Corporations are keeping food expensive because they can
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

To be sure, food manufacturers have to factor in costs of labor and transportation, which remain elevated compared with a few years ago. Anyway, it isn’t just food companies taking advantage of the inflationary moment. Many food companies are forecasting that they might slow down or pause price increases — but not lower them, Danielle explains. But [companies] have, I think, taken price increases that exceed that,” said Mark Lang, an associate professor of marketing at the University of Tampa who specializes in food marketing. Lower prices could, for example, make people think food quality has gone down — or make them think they were paying too much in the first place.

☆ Food is getting cheaper. But not for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Danielle Wiener-Bronner | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

When food producers started raising prices a few years ago, they blamed their own costs, including higher ingredient prices. Many food companies are forecasting that they might slow down or pause price increases — but not lower them. But ingredients typically make up a small portion of overall food costs. Companies are maintaining elevated prices, or continuing to increase them, at a time when many Americans are already struggling to pay for food, especially as pandemic-era food stamp benefits expire. So people keep buying food at the grocery store, despite higher prices — giving producers an opportunity to convince retailers that those higher prices won’t drive customers away.

☆ Sterling slips after BoE's Mann warns of risks for the pound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Sterling slipped against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after a Bank of England (BoE) rate-setter warned that the pound could be vulnerable to Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) outlooks. The pound could depreciate if investors have not yet fully priced in hawkish messages from central bank peers, Catherine Mann told Bloomberg Television in an interview. "The important question for me with regard to the pound is how much of that existing hawkish tone is already priced into the pound," she said. Traders are also attaching a 93% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase when the central bank meets to decide policy on March 23. There's no probability priced in that the bank could raise rates by more than that.

☆ Stocks pinned to lows as rate fears weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Softer-than-expected growth and inflation data in Australia sent the Aussie dollar to a two-month trough at $0.6696 in early trade, but lifted the local stockmarket (.AXJO) from lows as traders wound back interest rate expectations. The mixed tone of data in the last few days seems to have lots of assets pausing at major chart levels. Two-year Treasury yields , a guide to short-term U.S. rate expectations, are close to four-month highs, but at 4.8407% are below a November peak of 4.8830%. Commodities steadied as China demand hopes balance global growth concerns, and Brent crude sat at $83.45 a barrel. "Should Beijing send Russia arms, it risks a rapid geopolitical breaking of the world economy," said Rabobank's research head, Jan Lambregts.

☆ Dollar slides, yuan gains on China PMI; hot inflation lifts euro
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Yen, euro and U.S. dollar banknotes of various denominations. Meanwhile, inflation data from five German states was largely unchanged in the high single digits in February, pointing to no let-up in stubborn price pressures at the national level. Preliminary pan-German inflation data is to be published at 1300 GMT, calculated using data from up to 16 German states. "The euro is being well supported by the inflation data," Nordea's Christensen said. "We're looking for a more solid euro area inflation reading tomorrow than we had expected going into this week."

☆ Dollar advances, Aussie slides as Australia economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australia's economy grew at the weakest pace in a year last quarter while the country's monthly consumer prices rose less than expected in January, separate data showed on Wednesday. The Aussie slumped in the aftermath of the data to a two-month trough, and was last 0.47% lower at $0.6697. "We see the Fed going to 5.5%, with a growing risk of 6%," said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank. Elsewhere, the dollar rose 0.12% against the Japanese yen to 136.38, after having spiked close to 5% against the yen in February, its largest monthly gain since last June. The kiwi fell 0.28% to $0.6167, while the Chinese offshore yuan slipped marginally to 6.9603 per dollar.

☆ U.S. dollar strengthens as Fed minutes signal higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index was up 0.40% at 104.57, easing off the high of 104.59 it reached earlier in the day. "The Fed minutes were just released indicating that a few officials could have supported a 50-bps hike in the last meeting, though most backed the 25bps outcome. "The theme throughout February has been a bias towards higher rates, and these minutes are consistent with that perspective." But Fed funds futures traders are now pricing the fed funds rate to reach 5.38% in July, and remaining above 5% all year. "Stronger-than-expected U.S. data releases since the start of this month have reinforced the Fed's messages about stronger for longer interest rates."

Survey data released on Tuesday showed U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to reach its highest in eight months. He is the latest Fed official to signal that higher interest rates is likely needed to bring inflation back to desired levels. "Stronger-than-expected U.S. data releases since the start of this month have reinforced the Fed's messages about stronger for longer interest rates." The dollar index up 0.1% at 104.19, but off the high of 104.34 reached earlier in the day. A blockbuster U.S. employment report in early February sparked the rebound in the dollar, which has been helped along by a series of strong data releases.

☆ Dollar jumps to six-week high on higher rate expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar surged on Friday to hit a six-week high against a basket of currencies as a bout of resilient economic data out of the United States raised market expectations that more interest rate hikes were in the offing. The latest data releases gave the U.S. dollar a leg up, knocking sterling to a fresh six-week low of $1.1952 on Friday. Similarly, the kiwi tumbled to a six-week trough of $0.6228, while the euro bottomed at $1.0652, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose to a fresh six-week top of 104.31 and was on track for a third straight week of gains. U.S. Treasury yields have also surged on the back of further hawkish rate repricing, with the two-year yields last at 4.6762%.

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